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Jaws gives breakdown on Schaub (AFC South Blog)

GP

GP

Go Texans!
Just as I have said before: This team's passing game IS predicated upon the run game, we're not a passing team...we're a run team that runs so well that the passing game depends upon the success of the run game.

If you want to see a passing team who passes the hell out of the ball, look no further than the Saints. But THIS Texans team is a run team first and foremost.

And Ron Jaworski approves of my stance on this issue (read below!).

In ESPN’s 30-part “Jaws' QB Countdown” series, we’ve reached Houston’s Matt Schaub.

The segments -- produced by the NFL Matchup team at NFL Films -- are airing on "SportsCenter," "NFL Live" and "NFL32."


Schaub
Ron Jaworski ranks Schaub 13th.

Here’s his analysis of some film:
“Many might not be aware, but Schaub is a 65 percent passer as the Texans' five-year starter with two 4,000-yard seasons. He’s at his best in a controlled pass game that features play-action.

“I did a study going back to 2008. Schaub has been among the best in the NFL on first-and-10 over the last four years. Two things stood out. First, yards per attempt: consistently above nine. That means Schaub is generating explosive plays. Second, the percentage of first-down throws that produced another first down: Schaub has been in the top five each of those four seasons.

“The Texans’ offensive foundation is the zone run. The passing game works off that. Like almost all quarterbacks, Schaub must be managed by the schematics of the pass game, as well as the play calling. The late Bill Walsh was a strong believer in that concept of quarterback manipulation.

“This play against the Saints is a great example of what I’m talking about. The design of the play broke down the defense. First you had the motion by (Houston Texans wide receiver) Andre Johnson across the formation. Notice the ball was snapped before the corner could get lined up. Then you had hard, run-action away from Johnson. That moved the linebackers out of the passing lane. You had Johnson exploding off the line and a clear window for Schaub. Pitch and catch.

“One critical measurement for a quarterback is consistency. Schaub has been a very stable, measured player in his Texans career. I have always had concerns about his durability. He needs to stay on the field and be accountable for 16 games.”

Earlier in the series, Jacksonville’s Blaine Gabbert was 29th and Tennessee's Matt Hasselbeck was 18th.
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Nice job of taking one line out of context. Did you bother to read the entire paragraph in front of what you bolded?

Wait, for your reading leisure:

Schaub has been among the best in the NFL on first-and-10 over the last four years. Two things stood out. First, yards per attempt: consistently above nine. That means Schaub is generating explosive plays. Second, the percentage of first-down throws that produced another first down: Schaub has been in the top five each of those four seasons.
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Oh my freaking lord, so the rushing oriented team is passing enough for the above to be true - how could that possibly happen?

We have a good rushing game now. That doesn't mean we are a rush oriented team. We are a balanced attack team playing off what Kubiak has always done with play action and boots.
 
infantrycak said:
Nice job of taking one line out of context. Did you bother to read the entire paragraph in front of what you bolded?

Wait, for your reading leisure:



Oh my freaking lord, so the rushing oriented team is passing enough for the above to be true - how could that possibly happen?

We have a good rushing game now. That doesn't mean we are a rush oriented team. We are a balanced attack team playing off what Kubiak has always done with play action and boots.
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I agree that ideally the team is a balanced attack. However, last year due to the Schaub and then Leonard injury the team turned to 5th rook to play qb. As a result I think Kubes was forced to rush more than he wanted to protect Yates.

One of the things with the Denver system is that they ran it for years witha passer and didn't really get anywhere. It was only when a quality passer was combined with a quality rusher that they finally won the sb. After years Kubes finally has a quality rusher and passer. He can finally run that balanced attack he has wanted for so long.
 
Doppelganger said:
I agree that ideally the team is a balanced attack. However, last year due to the Schaub and then Leonard injury the team turned to 5th rook to play qb. As a result I think Kubes was forced to rush more than he wanted to protect Yates.

One of the things with the Denver system is that they ran it for years witha passer and didn't really get anywhere. It was only when a quality passer was combined with a quality rusher that they finally won the sb. After years Kubes finally has a quality rusher and passer. He can finally run that balanced attack he has wanted for so long.
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Totally agree with that. At the end of the day though, Kubiak is a former NFL QB and known as a QB guru. He is not setting up a system to be an unbalanced rushing attack. Schaub and AJ led the passing and receiving yards in a year we had zero rushing attack. People keep making this rushing assertion and we are not and have never been and never will be (under Kubiak) a power rush it down your throat and only pass in desperation kind of team.
 
Kubiak ideally wants a balanced attack in order to have versatility in scheming. The more cards in his deck, the more ability to throw a team off balance.
 
If you dont have a rushing attack, or a threat of a rush, your passing game will not be as effective. We have seen that in the past here.....
Schaub makes a lot of things happen with his rollouts from center.
Plus, he has been in the offense since Kubiak first got here. He knows it inside and out.
I am praying he stays healthy......:fans::texan::logo:
 
GP said:
This team's passing game IS predicated upon the run game, we're not a passing team...we're a run team that runs so well that the passing game depends upon the success of the run game.

THIS Texans team is a run team first and foremost.
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Agreed, and for anyone who knows the game it is obvious.
 
GP said:
Just as I have said before: This team's passing game IS predicated upon the run game, we're not a passing team...we're a run team that runs so well that the passing game depends upon the success of the run game.

If you want to see a passing team who passes the hell out of the ball, look no further than the Saints. But THIS Texans team is a run team first and foremost.

And Ron Jaworski approves of my stance on this issue (read below!).
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Welp, if Jaws says it...

I mean, never mind the fact that he works for the network we call BSPN & disregard everything else they say.

If he supports your opinion.... it must be right.
 
I remember a few years back when we had that classic rushing 1-2 punch of Green-Dayne having D's trembling in their cleats, Kubiak getting laughed out of town for suggesting that our great passing offense needs to use the run to set up the pass.

Kubiak's O is all about being a run-first balanced attack which can be explosive in the passing game because our zone rush can take it to the house from anywhere. When the run is going well, we put up big passing numbers by breaking a few big plays through the air, by putting the D off guard.

When we've been a lesser team and the run hasn't been working a few years back, we've put up big numbers passing because we've been chasing the game from the 2nd Q onwards, and the D has allowed us high completion on short and medium stuff, but when its come to goal-line/big 3rd down situations, they've been able to stop us when they wanted to.

Now that we've got what we need in both areas, all those 3rd down & goalline complaints have disappeared into thin air.

To me, we are clearly a run first team who are capable of blowing it open through the air when we choose, rather than when the D lets us. Hence how good we are on 1st down passing, because we can choose to throw it on first down rather than feeling we have to run it.

This is the reason why we're so devastating with winning talent, and also why we put up big numbers with losing talent, through those bad years, Kubiak stuck to his philosophy when arguably a change-up would have offered more short term success. Over time, a lot of the talent that was mediocre is still on the team, having learnt their trade and become successful at it, and all it took was some great O-line coaching and a couple of good picks at RB.

I don't get this viewpoint from endless tape study, I've formed it from 6 years of watching every Sunday live, a load of reading of articles, and a lot of viewing different opinions on here. I'm surprised that there is really any argument about it, I see it as well established all the way back to the Denver days.
 
What Kubiak really wants to recreate is the Super Bowl seasons that Denver had. They came out and blew the doors off opponents in the first half and then ran the ball the second half. For whatever reason, that hasn't really materialized. That's one of the reasons Schaub's incredibly slow starts a couple seasons ago raise red flags for me. Yeah, the defense was giving up 17-20 pts in the first half, but the offense scored 7 or fewer 10 or 11 times. In order to do what Kubiak wants to do, that needs to be reversed. And it has been from time to time, but Schaub needs to consistently be at his best in the first half, IMO.
 
thunderkyss said:
Welp, if Jaws says it...

I mean, never mind the fact that he works for the network we call BSPN & disregard everything else they say.

If he supports your opinion.... it must be right.
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Yeah, Ron Jaworski doesn't know anything about football.

Once again, you're trying to swim upstream on something and it's getting you nowhere.

It's not like he's some kid in Duluth who has a podcast with 3 subscribers. Ron Jaworski knows football.
 
ckhouston said:
Agreed, and for anyone who knows the game it is obvious.
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I don't agree at all.

Ideally, Kubiak would love to run first to set up the pass, but the Texans have only done that starting halfway through last year. (And in spurts prior to last season)

All of the Schaub years have been pass-centric to my eye.

I would like for the Texans to dominate the run and have everything else come off that, but to say we are a running team "first and foremost" is not what I've seen at all.
 
thunderkyss said:
Welp, if Jaws says it...

I mean, never mind the fact that he works for the network we call BSPN & disregard everything else they say.

If he supports your opinion.... it must be right.
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I trust JAWS almost more than any analyst out there. For one he does alot of his film work with Greg Cossell, who is probably one of if not the best talent evaluators and film gurus out there. His work with NFL Films and on Monday Night Matchup is hardcore. Some of these guys are more than ESPN talking heads.
 
eriadoc said:
What Kubiak really wants to recreate is the Super Bowl seasons that Denver had. They came out and blew the doors off opponents in the first half and then ran the ball the second half. For whatever reason, that hasn't really materialized. That's one of the reasons Schaub's incredibly slow starts a couple seasons ago raise red flags for me. Yeah, the defense was giving up 17-20 pts in the first half, but the offense scored 7 or fewer 10 or 11 times. In order to do what Kubiak wants to do, that needs to be reversed. And it has been from time to time, but Schaub needs to consistently be at his best in the first half, IMO.
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Careful what you say about Schaub.....

:cowboy1:
 
DBCooper said:
I don't agree at all.

Ideally, Kubiak would love to run first to set up the pass, but the Texans have only done that starting halfway through last year. (And in spurts prior to last season)

All of the Schaub years have been pass-centric to my eye.

I would like for the Texans to dominate the run and have everything else come off that, but to say we are a running team "first and foremost" is not what I've seen at all.
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Why does everyone live in the past on this topic?

RIGHT NOW ... TODAY ... Texans are a semi-balanced team with a heavy lean to the run.
 
ckhouston said:
Why does everyone live in the past on this topic?

RIGHT NOW ... TODAY ... Texans are a semi-balanced team with a heavy lean to the run.
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I can only hope they are as you say, that's what I want.

But, they only started playing run heavy last year because they had TJ running the show.

Put Schaub back in there and what will we get?

I don't know.


I can only guess from what I've seen.
 
noxiousdog said:
I think optimally kubiak has been quoted as wanting to be 60/40 pass. I'm sure that means with Schaub.
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I can see us at 65-70% run this year, using the pass for mid-range third down conversions, and to catch the opponent sleeping and dropping the bomb to AJ on them now and again. Our defense will keep us in every game, we should be able to ground and pound.
 
ckhouston said:
I can see us at 65-70% run this year, using the pass for mid-range third down conversions, and to catch the opponent sleeping and dropping the bomb to AJ on them now and again. Our defense will keep us in every game, we should be able to ground and pound.
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If he's the Kubiak I thought we were getting in 2006, we may be in that range, because we're blowing people out in the first quarter & running it down their throats the rest of the way.
 
Doppelganger said:
I agree that ideally the team is a balanced attack. However, last year due to the Schaub and then Leonard injury the team turned to 5th rook to play qb. As a result I think Kubes was forced to rush more than he wanted to protect Yates.

One of the things with the Denver system is that they ran it for years witha passer and didn't really get anywhere. It was only when a quality passer was combined with a quality rusher that they finally won the sb. After years Kubes finally has a quality rusher and passer. He can finally run that balanced attack he has wanted for so long.
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Gotta' disagree with the bolded. Making it to three Super Bowls - regardless of the outcomes - is far from not getting anywhere. I'd love to have a hometown team that just made it to the Super Bowl once, much less three times.

Agree with the rest, though. Adding T.D. to the mix was what finally put Elway over the top with his offense to win two championships.
 
thunderkyss said:
Welp, if Jaws says it...
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Yep. Vick & Flacco over Schaub? No thanks. Tony Romo? Great talent, but that guy single-handedly loses games (w/help of Garrett). And Stafford worse than Schaub and the guys mentioned above? (Hey Detroit, wanna trade?)

We've been pass based and rush first based -- which gives us some nice flexibility & makes it tougher to game-plan against. We'll never be the Saints O.
 
I guess this always comes down to a "Which came first, the run or the pass..."

To me, a great play-action pass game (which is what Schaub is known for, and by which Kubiak loves to create mismatches--as Jaws said) is achieved only if the defense respects the run 100%.

Of course a defense is still going to attack what they think is a run play at the snap, but then we have levels of commitment that come into play: How hard does the D bite on that fake, what resources/personnel do they over-commit to stopping the anticipated run play, etc.? Does it cause the D players to have mental pause at all the wrong times throughout a game?

Put Donald Brown back there as Texans RB and I don't think, over the course of a season, that this team would pass very efficiently. When a D spearheads into a single focal point, they leave their flanks upon to attack...which is why a vicious cutback artist like AF tears defenses to shreds. He gets to their exposed flanks and he's gone. And as Jaws explained, this also is what causes AJ to get so open the majority of the time--D is over-committing at the wrong time(s) in order to pursue AF or BT.
 
GP said:
Put Donald Brown back there as Texans RB and I don't think, over the course of a season, that this team would pass very efficiently. When a D spearheads into a single focal point, they leave their flanks upon to attack...which is why a vicious cutback artist like AF tears defenses to shreds. He gets to their exposed flanks and he's gone. And as Jaws explained, this also is what causes AJ to get so open the majority of the time--D is over-committing at the wrong time(s) in order to pursue AF or BT.
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But we were kicking ass in the passing game with Chris Brown as our "feature" back.
 
thunderkyss said:
But we were kicking ass in the passing game with Chris Brown as our "feature" back.
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Wait a second. Now TK, exactly how long was Chris Brown a feature back here?

There was Ahman Green, then Slaton dazzled in 2008 IIRC, but Chris Brown was never a feature back. Role-playing backup and/or 3rd down guy who throws ****ty halfback passes? Yes. Feature back??? LOL.

The times when Ahman was healthy, he was decent. Slaton was pretty good in 2008 and then things fell apart in 2009. 2010 and 2011 was AF's monster years.
 
Playoffs said:
Yep. Vick & Flacco over Schaub? No thanks. Tony Romo? Great talent, but that guy single-handedly loses games (w/help of Garrett). And Stafford worse than Schaub and the guys mentioned above? (Hey Detroit, wanna trade?)

We've been pass based and rush first based -- which gives us some nice flexibility & makes it tougher to game-plan against. We'll never be the Saints O.
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Romo has the second highest career passer rating in history right now. And while he hasn't won anything big and has made mistakes what do you call Schaub throwing late game picks to lose multiple games? I've been hard on both guys at times but I've learned you can't look at that stuff in a vaccuum because it will drive you crazy.
 
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HoustonFrog said:
Romo has the second highest career passer rating in history right now. I'd while he hasn't won anything big and has made mistakes what do you call Schaub throwing late game picks to lose multiple games. I've been hard on both guys at times but I've learned you can't look at that stuff in a vaccuum because it will drive you crazy.
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With the exception of maybe this past year or two, Romo had been known as a guy who starts hot and fades (drastically) at the end of each season. I know because I play fantasy football, and I would never draft Romo because he was a heartbreaker at the end of the season when you needed fantasy points reliably and consistently from the QB.

Sure, he'd boost your fantasy team the first half of the season and things looked splendid, then it dropped off considerably due to interceptions, fumbled snaps, traveling northeast for the winter portion of the schedule.

However, he has recently been much more consistent from start to finish. The thing that hurts him is that defense. He's always playing from behind.
 
GP said:
With the exception of maybe this past year or two, Romo had been known as a guy who starts hot and fades (drastically) at the end of each season. I know because I play fantasy football, and I would never draft Romo because he was a heartbreaker at the end of the season when you needed fantasy points reliably and consistently from the QB.

Sure, he'd boost your fantasy team the first half of the season and things looked splendid, then it dropped off considerably due to interceptions, fumbled snaps, traveling northeast for the winter portion of the schedule.

However, he has recently been much more consistent from start to finish. The thing that hurts him is that defense. He's always playing from behind.
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Last year was one of his best and most complete years but the D could never hold leads once they made up deficits or they would squander early leads. He had 2 brainfart games where he contributed with ints but overall I thought he "got it" more than some other years...see SF game. I hope he gets it more this year. Some people like Staubach have come out and said that he deserves more respect and that the pressure is big but that he should be able to do more if they fix the D, etc. I also think he gets a bum rap at times despite a horrible O line in years past. When I traveled to Minnesota to watch the playoff game a few years back it was laughable how badly he was running for his life. Even with late game things in the past I don't think you get up on some of these lists unless your doing things right.
 
GP said:
Wait a second. Now TK, exactly how long was Chris Brown a feature back here?
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Just as an aside that should factor into your thinking on this issue, a couple seasons ago, with Foster at RB, the Texans couldn't score more than 7 points in the first half for a majority of the season. The result was they had to open up the offense and pass like crazy in the second half when the other team wasn't all that concerned about the run. Many of the yards that Foster racked up in his first season were set up by the pass. Last year was a reversal from that.

I just think they are a balanced team that can go either way. They don't always have a balance, but they can be balanced if they play their game.
 
HoustonFrog said:
Last year was one of his best and most complete years but the D could never hold leads once they made up deficits or they would squander early leads. He had 2 brainfart games where he contributed with ints but overall I thought he "got it" more than some other years...see SF game. I hope he gets it more this year. Some people like Staubach have come out and said that he deserves more respect and that the pressure is big but that he should be able to do more if they fix the D, etc. I also think he gets a bum rap at times despite a horrible O line in years past. When I traveled to Minnesota to watch the playoff game a few years back it was laughable how badly he was running for his life. Even with late game things in the past I don't think you get up on some of these lists unless your doing things right.
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He's a positive guy, too, which hurts his street cred in the realm of fandom. When guys like Brady are incensed and pouting if they lost, Romo is smiling and being deflective about "who should get the blame."

Ultimately, I just wonder if he's too nice of a guy to fit on Jerry's team. Jerry is not exactly the fuzziest, warmest guy in the room. Still, Romo has survived it all and still gets the nod as QB1...but I was really thinking Jerry would have made a huge move for a new QB--be it Weeden or Tannehill or even RGIII.

If Jerry can get the defense and the o-line playing constantly good, Romo can be a great QB. Patience with Romo might reward Jerry if other things go well.

Romo is almost like a Tebow guy but in a more sincere fashion. And can actually pass the ball. LOL.
 
GP said:
To me, a great play-action pass game (which is what Schaub is known for, and by which Kubiak loves to create mismatches--as Jaws said) is achieved only if the defense respects the run 100%.

Of course a defense is still going to attack what they think is a run play at the snap, but then we have levels of commitment that come into play: How hard does the D bite on that fake, what resources/personnel do they over-commit to stopping the anticipated run play, etc.? Does it cause the D players to have mental pause at all the wrong times throughout a game?

Put Donald Brown back there as Texans RB and I don't think, over the course of a season, that this team would pass very efficiently.
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You look like you aren't even a Texans fan when you say stuff like this. It might be excusable as conventional wisdom but when your team led the league is passing yards and receiving yards with NO rushing attack then the above becomes ridiculous.
 
HoustonFrog said:
Last year was one of his best and most complete years but the D could never hold leads once they made up deficits or they would squander early leads.
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If they could run the ball, you wouldn't have that problem. Romo was fantasy Gold when he had the Julius Jones/Marion Barber 1-2 punch. But Jerrah outsmarted himself, paid Barber, let Julius walk..... long story short, their run game hasn't been the same since.

Demarco Murray came in & it looked like the Cowboys couldn't lose. Romo was gold again... Murray got hurt, defense looked suspect....



I'm not saying you're wrong, their D needs help. The run game would help as well.
 
Doppelganger said:
I agree that ideally the team is a balanced attack. However, last year due to the Schaub and then Leonard injury the team turned to 5th rook to play qb. As a result I think Kubes was forced to rush more than he wanted to protect Yates.

One of the things with the Denver system is that they ran it for years witha passer and didn't really get anywhere. It was only when a quality passer was combined with a quality rusher that they finally won the sb. After years Kubes finally has a quality rusher and passer. He can finally run that balanced attack he has wanted for so long.
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infantrycak said:
Totally agree with that. At the end of the day though, Kubiak is a former NFL QB and known as a QB guru. He is not setting up a system to be an unbalanced rushing attack. Schaub and AJ led the passing and receiving yards in a year we had zero rushing attack. People keep making this rushing assertion and we are not and have never been and never will be (under Kubiak) a power rush it down your throat and only pass in desperation kind of team.
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It's not a simple task to determine what kind of an offense the Texans really had.

There are factors that vary from year to year.

For example, when you are more often behind, your team will throw the ball more.

The health of your starting QB (as well as some of your other key players) may alter the game plan a little in a few particular games.

The defenses that you face. One year, you may face more teams that are better at defending the pass (and not as good defending the run); so you run the ball a little more.

...

Having say that, let's move on and isolate the 2011 season.
The Texans RBs actually averaged some 4 more carries per game without Schaub.
The notion that Kubiak was forced to run ball more with Yates is simply not true.
(Whether you count the final game of the season or not, the Texans averaged roughly 29 rushing attempts by the RBs without Schaub whereas they averaged about 34 with Schaub).

Schaub averaged just slightly little more than 29 pass attempts per game.
So did Yates (almost). Don't forget that one needs to take into consideration sacks and QB scrambles as he tried to execute a passing play.

The same thing would result if you also account for the play-off games.
All the while, Yates faced better defenses (and pass defenses) overall than Schaub.
 
76Texan said:
It's not a simple task to determine what kind of an offense the Texans really had.

There are factors that vary from year to year.

For example, when you are more often behind, your team will throw the ball more.
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No it isn't, Yes there are, Never said they didn't.

All I am saying is Kubiak wants a running game. That is different from being a run first team..
 
infantrycak said:
No it isn't, Yes there are, Never said they didn't.

All I am saying is Kubiak wants a running game. That is different from being a run first team..
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Infantrycak wins the thread.

None of this is rocket science. Kubiak says what he means. He wants a balanced offense. The best case scenario of games is to crush teams in the first half finding mismatches. Then run it down team's throats in the second half after amassing a big lead and having the defense pinning its ears back killing the opponent that has to throw to get back into the game.

Dennison was amazed that Kubiak could get effective play action without a functional running game before he arrived. But that is not ideal. A more balanced offense puts more pressure on defenses.

The Bronco teams that ended up winning finally got less one dimensional by getting Elway a running game to keep defenses off balance, and their Super Bowl years had a good defense.
 
I would say that we're an OL first offense. Excluding obvious passing situations, the success of the passing game relies on play action and the OL selling the run at the snap. That, to me, is one of the greatest assets of this offense. When the OL is working great, defenses have a very hard time determining run or pass because the 1st 1-2 seconds(a long time in an NFL play) tend to look identical and it freezes LB's and safeties for those critical 1-2 seconds. That shows itself in games where the oppossing defense has superior talent in the interior DL. The OL tends to struggle and the rest of the offense falls off with it. Last years game against the Raiders and the regular season Baltimore game highlighted this IMO. Kubiak was slow to adjust in the regular season, but made the proper changes in the playoff game against the Ravens.

As goes the OL, so goes the rest of the offense, to a large degree.
 
DocBar said:
When the OL is working great, defenses have a very hard time determining run or pass because the 1st 1-2 seconds(a long time in an NFL play) tend to look identical and it freezes LB's and safeties for those critical 1-2 seconds.
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That's true. But if you've got a home run threat in the backfield like Foster & Tate, you don't just freeze LBs & Safeties. You suck them in, leaving huge holes in the defense.

When the commentator says, "How does Andre continue to get so wide open?"

There was a lot of suck on that play caused by the OL doing their job, Schaub doing his job, and Foster & Tate being Foster & Tate.
 
thunderkyss said:
That's true. But if you've got a home run threat in the backfield like Foster & Tate, you don't just freeze LBs & Safeties. You suck them in, leaving huge holes in the defense.

When the commentator says, "How does Andre continue to get so wide open?"

There was a lot of suck on that play caused by the OL doing their job, Schaub doing his job, and Foster & Tate being Foster & Tate.
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:handshake: It's a team sport and takes all facets working together to be successful. IMO, that all starts with the OL executing. None of the "skill" positions look nearly as "skilled" when they don't.
 
A straight run/pass% analysis doesn't really tell the story of what an offense wants to do or is good at doing.

A crappy team that is always down by 20 points is going to throw a lot. A team that is always in the lead is generally going to run more (unless they simply can't run: late 2k's Colts).

I remember reading a mid-season story in the paper that said the Texans ran their average play with a lead of somewhere around 4.5 (highest in the NFL at the time). When you're always in the lead and trying to kill clock, you're going to run more that if you were always playing catchup. It doesn't mean that would be your ideal run/pass balance in a close game. I don't have all of my excel files in front of me, but I seem to remember the Texans throwing more than running in situations where the game was +-3 points in the first 3 quarters.
 
Goatcheese said:
A straight run/pass% analysis doesn't really tell the story of what an offense wants to do or is good at doing.

A crappy team that is always down by 20 points is going to throw a lot. A team that is always in the lead is generally going to run more (unless they simply can't run: late 2k's Colts).

I remember reading a mid-season story in the paper that said the Texans ran their average play with a lead of somewhere around 4.5 (highest in the NFL at the time). When you're always in the lead and trying to kill clock, you're going to run more that if you were always playing catchup. It doesn't mean that would be your ideal run/pass balance in a close game. I don't have all of my excel files in front of me, but I seem to remember the Texans throwing more than running in situations where the game was +-3 points in the first 3 quarters.
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I would like to see that spreadsheet. I am inclined to say that Kubiak will get even more run-oriented in a close game to prevent negative plays (sacks, sack/strips,INT's) in a close game and pick his spots for pass plays. Kubiak is known to stick to a balanced attack even when the running game is doing poorly.
 
DocBar said:
I would like to see that spreadsheet. I am inclined to say that Kubiak will get even more run-oriented in a close game to prevent negative plays (sacks, sack/strips,INT's) in a close game and pick his spots for pass plays. Kubiak is known to stick to a balanced attack even when the running game is doing poorly.
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If I knew better, I'd be a head coach myself. But I don't understand why Kubiak gives up on the run so easily. At least it appears to me that he gives up too easy.

If we're down by 10 points, we're going to air the ball out, regardless how affective the run game is. Arian Foster ran for over 100 yards in the first half of the Baltimore play-off game. Second half, less than 30.

It was a long time ago, but my memory has me believing we were throwing the ball on almost every snap. I remember pulling my hair out. Literally.

Maybe Baltimore... the third best defense in the league stopped our run game. Maybe they made adjustments & had our number. I don't know. But I felt he gave up, too early, again.
 
DocBar said:
I would like to see that spreadsheet.
Click to expand...

Source - Official NFL statistics

situational passing breakdown
Points Margin -------0-7---8-14---15+
Schaub---------------111---122---59
Leinart---------------13------0------0
Yates-----------------104----0-----30
Delhomme-----------28-----0-----0

Total------------------256---122---89

Situational rushing breakdown (doesn't include QB rushes)
Foster---------------143----43-----92
Tate-----------------67-----28-----80
Ward----------------12-----0------33
Slaton---------------20-----2------2

Total----------------242----73-----207

It does seem off that Yates has no 8-14 point passes. :headscratcher:

Edit - some of the numbers don't add up with the other numbers I have. I'll post the lead by/trail by numbers later if I get a chance.

Edit 2 -

TexansSituational.png


So, 83 more passes when leading close, 60 more passes when trailing close, 10 fewer passes when tied.
 
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The leading close/behind close stats make sense since the team is trying to extend a lead or close the gap. Nice breakdown.
 
thunderkyss said:
If I knew better, I'd be a head coach myself. But I don't understand why Kubiak gives up on the run so easily. At least it appears to me that he gives up too easy.

If we're down by 10 points, we're going to air the ball out, regardless how affective the run game is. Arian Foster ran for over 100 yards in the first half of the Baltimore play-off game. Second half, less than 30.

It was a long time ago, but my memory has me believing we were throwing the ball on almost every snap. I remember pulling my hair out. Literally.

Maybe Baltimore... the third best defense in the league stopped our run game. Maybe they made adjustments & had our number. I don't know. But I felt he gave up, too early, again.
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Nah, up until the last two drives (starting with 2:52 left in the game), Foster ran 27 times while Yates attempted 28 passes.

7 of those attempts (with one incompletion) were to the RBs (Foster and Tate) and they were like extensions of the run.

With 2:52 left, leading by 7, the Ravens played two-deep safeties.
On the Texans next-to-last drive, they didn't really play prevent defense; but they played soft (with the safeteis way back).
The Texans were in one-back set; still it makes sense for Yates to go to AJ on consecutive intermediate completions (as the safeties played back).
It was on the third play where Yates became greedy and forced the ball long into double coverage.

At any rate, the point is that Kubiak did not give up on the running game.
 
DocBar said:
I would say that we're an OL first offense. Excluding obvious passing situations, the success of the passing game relies on play action and the OL selling the run at the snap. That, to me, is one of the greatest assets of this offense. When the OL is working great, defenses have a very hard time determining run or pass because the 1st 1-2 seconds(a long time in an NFL play) tend to look identical and it freezes LB's and safeties for those critical 1-2 seconds. That shows itself in games where the oppossing defense has superior talent in the interior DL. The OL tends to struggle and the rest of the offense falls off with it. Last years game against the Raiders and the regular season Baltimore game highlighted this IMO. Kubiak was slow to adjust in the regular season, but made the proper changes in the playoff game against the Ravens.

As goes the OL, so goes the rest of the offense, to a large degree.
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I was going to mention this facet of the team, since it's been mentioned recently by others...glad you brought this issue up.

Yes, the OL might be the real key here. If the OL is clicking...anything works. When it's struggling...everything struggles.

Throw in a rookie QB who was playing scout team, in a lockout shortened season, and it complicates things whether the OL is doing well or not.

Getting Schaub back, a GOOD Schaub by the way, and our OL performing well--THAT is the key. If that happens, it doesn't matter who our WR2 or WR3 is. Well, sort of. But still.
 
76Texan said:
I wasn't disagreeing with you ICAK; I was disagreeing with dopplergang.
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I was very short in that post but wasn't disagreeing with you either. I feel we are designed to be a balanced attack team capable of doing either as needed. Situation will dictate how much one or the other gets used.

The folks I disagree with are those who say the Texans are built to be a rushing team.
 
Goatcheese said:
A straight run/pass% analysis doesn't really tell the story of what an offense wants to do or is good at doing.

A crappy team that is always down by 20 points is going to throw a lot. A team that is always in the lead is generally going to run more (unless they simply can't run: late 2k's Colts).

I remember reading a mid-season story in the paper that said the Texans ran their average play with a lead of somewhere around 4.5 (highest in the NFL at the time). When you're always in the lead and trying to kill clock, you're going to run more that if you were always playing catchup. It doesn't mean that would be your ideal run/pass balance in a close game. I don't have all of my excel files in front of me, but I seem to remember the Texans throwing more than running in situations where the game was +-3 points in the first 3 quarters.
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You're saying some of the things I said.

However, there are more to numbers than just a lead.

It also depends on other factors.

I have a bunch of playbooks by different teams.
In one of them, the offensive team charts the tendency of the defensive team on every down and distance.
This is another tool that a team use to formulate a game plan against a certain opponent.

Then they start the game with a certain number of scripted plays (let's say 25) to check that tendency. If it stays true, they continue with the game plan' otherwise, they adjust.
 
infantrycak said:
I was very short in that post but wasn't disagreeing with you either. I feel we are designed to be a balanced attack team capable of doing either as needed. Situation will dictate how much one or the other gets used.

The folks I disagree with are those who say the Texans are built to be a rushing team.
Click to expand...

I didn't think you were disagreeing with me either.

And as you said, situations will dictate the game plan and any adjustment necessary.
I rewatched a couple of games: Colts week 1 and Raiders.
I'll bring them up to clarify a few points (not to you, but to others).
 
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