Interesting theory.How Good Is Peyton Manning? Texans and Jaguars Provide a Clue
As foreshadowed in this space last week, Peyton Manning broke the league record for completions in a season. He also led the league in sack rate, a factor often ignored when judging the talent of a quarterback. But then there are many ways to rate a quarterback. Take the news out of Jacksonville and Houston this week.
The Jaguars owner, Wayne Weaver, chose to retain Coach Jack Del Rio, although Del Rio will have to relinquish his defensive play-calling responsibilities. To the dismay of many Jaguars fans, Del Rio failed to lead Jacksonville to a winning record for the fourth time in five seasons. The Texans are also sticking with their coach, Gary Kubiak, even though Houston hasnt had a winning record in four of the last five years, including this season.
Since the A.F.L-N.F.L. merger in 1970, only four head coaches have a) finished with a .500 or worse record in four out of five seasons with the same team, b) finished with a .500 or worse record in the fifth season, and c) were retained to coach for a sixth season.
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John Fox just finished his fourth non-winning season in five years in Carolina, and was let go. But Kubiak and Del Rio? Theyll be back, despite not having the cachet of Bart Starr, or the pedigrees of McKay or Reeves, and despite the fact that they didnt inherit the hopeless situations that Lewis and McKay did. What they have, instead, may be the most hopeless situation of all: competing against Peyton Manning.
Whether Weaver or Houstons owner, Bob McNair, want to admit it, Manning and the Colts have changed expectations in the division. Indianapolis is the divisions overlord, having won the A.F.C. South in seven of the last eight seasons. The 2008 Titans had to post the leagues best record at 13-3 to edge out the 12-4 Colts for the division crown. In Houston and Jacksonville, merely competing with Indianapolis is a sign of progress. The Texans were 1-15 against the Colts entering this season, but played them even in 2010, splitting the season series. The Jaguars won a bunch of games in the fourth quarter this year, but no game inspired more confidence than when they dethroned the Colts in Week 4. Bringing back Del Rio and quarterback David Garrard for a fifth run seems absurd given their relative lack of success, but in Jacksonville, expectations are lowered. This years team entered the final week of the season with a chance to dethrone the Colts, a step forward by at least one measure.
Kubiak and Del Rio seem to be uninspiring choices to lead teams in 2011. Theyll become just the fifth and sixth coaches in the last 40 years to be given such a long leash.
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I think our problems are deeper than that, but I think this hypothesis has some merit.