Step 1
I wanted to break down the points per quarter of each game to get a sense of what is happening.
09/13/2009 New York Jets L, 24-7
Q1: 3, Q2:7, Q3:7, Q4:7. Total points was only 24 but it was an absolute beat down.
09/20/2009 @ Tennessee Titans W, 34-31
Q1: 14, Q2:10, Q3:7, Q4:0. The uncovered CJ play is all we need to think about. SLOPPY play throughout
09/27/2009 Jacksonville Jaguars L, 31-24
Q1: 3, Q2:14, Q3:7, Q4:7. After the first half the D came apart giving up 28 points in 2,3,4th quarters. No good.
10/04/2009 Oakland Raiders W, 29-6
Q1: 3, Q2:3, Q3:0, Q4:0. Dominant D. 6 points in first half, clean sheet in second half. Played hard for a full game.
10/11/2009 @ Arizona Cardinals L, 28-21
Q1: 7, Q2:14, Q3:0, Q4:7(int). A tale of 2 halves. First half D gave up 21 points. Cannot give up 21 points in a half and get a W. 2nd half, D gives up 0. Looks like D was flat in first half (along with the offense).
10/18/2009 @ Cincinnati Bengals W, 28-17
Q1: 0, Q2:17, Q3:0, Q4:0. Gave up 17 points in the second quarter. A win, but 17 points at the half is not good.
10/25/2009 San Francisco 49ers W, 24-21
Q1: 0, Q2:0, Q3:7, Q4:14. Yikes. Clean sheet in first half and then 21 second half points. D came out strong and fizzled out.
11/01/2009 @ Buffalo Bills W, 31-10
Q1: 7, Q2:3, Q3:0, Q4:0. Dominant D. 10 points in first half, clean sheet in second half. Played hard outside of first drive. Played hard whole game
11/08/2009 @ Indianapolis Colts L, 20-17
Q1: 10, Q2:3, Q3:0, Q4:7. Very strong effort to keep Manning to only 20 points. Came out a bit flat in the first, but played 3 quarters hard.
11/23/2009 (Mon.)Tennessee Titans L, 20-17
Q1: 0, Q2:14, Q3:3, Q4:3. Giving up 14 points in a quarter is inexcusable. If they kept it at 10 or less, Texans win. Played 3 quarters hard.
11/29/2009 Indianapolis Colts L, 35-27
Q1: 0, Q2:7, Q3:7, Q4:21(1int). D gave up 14 in the 4th, but that is still too much. Played 3 quarters.
12/06/2009 @ Jacksonville Jaguars L, 23-18
Q1: 3, Q2:17, Q3:3, Q4:0. Sensing a pattern here? The team is playing 3 quarters so many times.
12/13/2009 Seattle Seahawks W, 34-7
Q1: 0, Q2:7, Q3:0, Q4:0. Dominant D. 7 points in first half, clean sheet in second half. Played 4 quarters
12/20/2009 @ St. Louis Rams W, 16-13
Q1: 0, Q2:10, Q3:3, Q4:0. Dominant D. 10 points in first half, 3 in th second half. played hard.
12/27/2009 @ Miami Dolphins W, 27-20
Q1: 0, Q2:3, Q3:7, Q4:10. gave up 17 points in the second half. Not good.
01/03/2010 New England Patriots W, 34-27
Q1: 7, Q2:6, Q3:7(int), Q4:7. Gave up points each quarter. a tough offense, but we need to do better than 27 points given up.
Step 2
I decided to break down points given up by quarter to see if a pattern emerges.
Q1: 57
Q2: 135
Q3: 54
Q4: 69
Step 3
Looks like we are giving up tremendous amounts of points in the 2nd quarter. For whatever reason we seem to not play very hard during that quarter. If you want to say its skewed becuase of the first three games, look at the breakdown without the first three
Q1:37
Q2:104
Q3:33
Q4:55
The discrepancy is still there. From this data I conclude that the Texans essentially played 3 quarters of defense. While it was not always consistent, statistically the Texans played far poorer in the 2nd quarter as compared to the other ones. The other quarters are likely not statistically significantly different. So, the for the Texans to think playoffs they must play hard in all 4 quarters.
Now here is the kicker. The Texans were in the 54-69 point range per quarter for 1,3,and 4. If we give them a 69 for quarter 2 and add 14 points(points for pick 6's), the total comes out to 263 total points. That would work out to 16.44 points per game. That number would qualify for 4th in the league(using last year's data). As is the Texans 2nd quarter had them at 333 or 20.8 ppg, good for 17th. Thus if they played at the same level through all 4 quarters they would have had the 4th best D in terms up giving up points, which is the most important D statistic afterall. A stingy 16.44 ppg would be more than enough for our offense and we would certainly have been in the playoffs. Look at the numbers. We played a full f game defense 3 times. And we won all three of them.
Therefore: the Texans D was fantastic outside of the 2nd quarter. If they can fix that issue, they will have a strong Defense.