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Advanced Trends in the NFL Draft: 2004-Present

Playoffs

Playoffs

Hall of Fame
The 2013 NFL Draft 1st Round begins Thursday, April 25 at 8 p.m. ET,

2nd & 3rd Rounds on Friday, April 26 at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Rounds 4-7 will be held Saturday, April 27 at 12 p.m. ET.

Watch it live on NFL Network, or follow online at:

NFL.com: http://www.nfl.com/draft/2013

ESPN.com: http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft

CBSSports.com: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft

[IMGwidthsize=200]http://i215.photobucket.com/albums/cc272/Hervoyel/NextManUp.jpg[/IMG]

Code: 
1	Kansas City Chiefs	2–14	.516	
2	Jacksonville Jaguars	2–14	.539	
3	Oakland Raiders	        4–12	.469	
4	Philadelphia Eagles	4–12	.508	
5	Detroit Lions	        4–12	.566	
6	Cleveland Browns	5–11	.508	
7	Arizona Cardinals	5–11	.559	
8	Buffalo Bills	        6–10	.480	
9	New York Jets      	6–10	.512	
10	Tennessee Titans 	6–10	.512	
11	San Diego Chargers	7–9	.457	
12	Miami Dolphins	        7–9	.500	
13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7–9	.502	
14	Carolina Panthers	7–9	.516	
15	New Orleans Saints	7–9	.521	
16	St. Louis Rams	        7–8–1   .539	
17	Pittsburgh Steelers	8–8	.465	
18	Dallas Cowboys	        8–8	.523	
19	New York Giants	        9–7	.521	
20	Chicago Bears	        10–6	.512	
21	Cincinnati Bengals	10–6	.438	
22	St. Louis Rams 	        10–6	.494
23	Minnesota Vikings	10–6	.520
24	Indianapolis Colts	11–5	.441	
25	Minnesota Vikings 	11–5	.504	
26	Green Bay Packers	11–5	.508	
27	Houston Texans	        12–4	.496	
28	Denver Broncos	        13–3	.457	
29	New England Patriots	12–4	.496	
30	Atlanta Falcons	        13–3	.422	
31	San Francisco 49ers	11–4–1	.504	
32	Baltimore Ravens	10–6	.496
 
All apologies for premature topicifation, I had it in my withered dome that today was the draft.

Couldn't figure out why everyone wasn't all excited today.
laugh-1.gif
SmileySuicide.gif
 
nfl.com has a countdown to the schedule release today, and it definitely mislead me into thinking the draft was tonight. Maybe you fell into the same trap?
 
htownfan32 said:
nfl.com has a countdown to the schedule release today, and it definitely mislead me into thinking the draft was tonight. Maybe you fell into the same trap?
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Yep, that helped. But I'm a mo-ron. [IMGwidthsize=40]http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/images/smilies/toropalm.gif[/IMG]
 
Playoffs said:
All apologies for premature topicifation, I had it in my withered dome that today was the draft.

Couldn't figure out why everyone wasn't all excited today.
laugh-1.gif
SmileySuicide.gif
Click to expand...

Well if it's any consolation your thread reminded me that the draft starts on the 25th at 8 p.m. So at least it helped in that fashion.
 
ESPN is not going to tweet out selections before they're announced by the commissioner this year. I'm glad, because that kind of ruined the suspense of the draft.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/-n...twork-nfl-draft-plans/?sct=hp_wr_a2&eref=sihp

Markman has told all ESPN NFL staffers not to tweet out selections prior to the announcement of the Commissioner for the first round. The edict is likely to extend into the second round as well. "The majority of the people we have heard from say they prefer not to be told in advance," he said. "Is this a perfect scenario on Twitter? No. But I can only go by the majority of what we heard and I think we are making the right decision. We could get beat on some stories but I'd rather get beat on a couple of draft picks on Thursday night than anger the majority of the fan base. We'll definitely do that for the first round and into the second round. After that, I don't think people tweet out picks by pick, anyway."
Click to expand...
 
bckey said:
I sure miss those sat/sun drafts. Huge weekend parties. Thanks Goodell.
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Agreed. With my work schedule, I may miss a bit of the first round and will almost assuredly miss part of the second. 7PM and 5:30 PM are tough for some of us to be home. I know its possible to stream it via computer but the internet connection is not great here. Plus the IT guy will probably email me and remind me not to use work resources for non-work reasons :)

Oh well.
 
Don't worry be happy Texans will trade out of first but you might miss our selections in second; try to be in front of tv by 6:30 or so Friday.
 
Cooking a brisket and some baby backs thursday. I was thinking the same thing. Friday might be the best Texan draft day because they very well could trade back out of the 1st round. Oh well. Should be enough for both days anyway.
 
If Geno Smith is there at 27, should the Texans take him? McShay and some other drafts have him falling to the bottom of the 1st or out of it.
 
Dallas Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones ... had an opportunity to get a little more in-depth with how the Cowboys are approaching the first round of Thursday’s NFL Draft, including the chances of trading out of the No. 18 spot.

“I don’t think we’ll know that until we see who’s there,” Jones told The Blitz on KZDC-AM 1250 in San Antonio. “I do think it’s very possible that we could [trade] out of that pick depending on who’s there.

“It’s a very unique draft. In the 22 years I’ve been in the league, I don’t think I have ever seen a draft where it lacks the high-powered guys up at the top.”
...
“I think there’s as good a chance that we move out of the pick [as there is] that we stay with it.”
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http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/2...-that-the-dallas-cowboys-draft-at-no-18.html/

***********************************************
ALAMEDA -- "Oakland Raiders general manager Reggie McKenzie is a true old-school evaluator, where he wants a football player first and an athlete second, and I think Mr. Davis was a little bit the opposite," NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock said. "He wanted the athlete first and thought he could mold him into a football player."
Click to expand...
http://www.contracostatimes.com/rai...oakland-raiders-mckenzie-commitment-character

**********************************************
Steelers reassessing character issues during NFL Draft
In an effort to remedy possible flawed evaluations, the organization focused more on having discussions with the families of draft-eligible players to better assess their character.

“We actually tried to be a little more proactive in trying to meet families,” Colbert said. “It is something that Coach Tomlin started three years ago. After we draft players, we start to bring their families in to get to know the kids that we drafted.”
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*********************************************
Ignoring quarterbacks in draft leaves Bills imperfect
Buffalo Bills General Manager Buddy Nix is fond of saying he’d draft a quarterback every year if he could. It hasn’t worked out that way, of course. The team has selected just one – Levi Brown in the seventh round in 2010 – during Nix’s three years running the draft.

That’s nothing new for the franchise. Instead, it’s the continuation of a troubling trend – one that dates to Jan. 31, 1997, A.K.

After Kelly.

Since the greatest passer in franchise history retired on that date, there have been 191 quarterbacks drafted into the NFL. The Bills have taken just three of those. Only the Dallas Cowboys, who have taken two, have drafted fewer quarterbacks over that time...
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Lance Zierlein ‏@LanceZierlein 27s
I just spoke with Bills & they said they will draft EVERYONE if you don't trade up for their pick. They are mad, guys. I think they mean it
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:lol:
 
ADVANCED TRENDS IN THE NFL DRAFT: 2004-PRESENT

The Sideline View set out to find any trending data that may provide baselines of what NFL scouts look for the in draft. In doing so, we compiled one of the largest draft/combine databases ever created. Through the process of breaking down and analyzing this data, we have found several trends that may give us a hint towards who will be selected where in tonight's NFL Draft.

RUNNING BACKS
  • All 1,000 yard rushers drafted in the first round since 2004 ran sub-4.5 40-yard-dash times.
  • Notable picks from the first round with 40-yard-dash times slower than 4.5 and have not ran for 1,000 yards in a season include Mark Ingram, Lawrence Maroney, and Chris Perry.
  • Jonathan Franklin is the only sub 4.5 rusher predicted to be selected in the first two rounds in this 2013 draft.
WIDE RECEIVERS
  • The average size and speed for receivers drafted in the top 15 since 2004 have been: 6-2, 215 lbs. with a 4.5 40-yard-dash.
  • Most notably: Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, and Julio Jones
  • Will Tavon Austin’s playmaking ability be enough to break the mold?
TACKLE
  • Six pro bowl offensive tackles have been selected in the first round since 2004. The average size of these pro bowlers are 6-6, 309 lbs.
  • Other notable traits on these top tackles include:
    • Minimum 34” arm length
    • 5.25 40-yard time or faster
    • Minimum 24 bench reps
  • Based on these tendencies, Luke Joekel, Eric Fisher, and Lane Johnson all pass the test.
GUARD
One of the hottest topics coming into the draft this year is when is the earliest to select a guard? Since 2004, nine offensive guards have been selected in the first round, with the earliest pick at #15 in the draft.

  • Those drafted early in the first round were versatile guards who had the ability to play multiple positions (Branden Albert and Mike Pouncey).
  • The remaining guards who were drafted late in the first round were drafted to be either a specific power blocker, or zone-read based guard.
TIGHT ENDS
  • Among all tight ends drafted since 2004, Rob Gronkowski has the largest recorded hand size (10-7/8”).
  • All pro bowl tight ends drafted since that time have had a minimum 34” arm length.
QUARTERBACKS AND CENTERS
There were no tendencies found among quarterbacks and centers
DEFENSIVE ENDS
  • When reviewing 3-4 scheme defensive ends drafted since 2004 who became all-pro players, the following tendencies stood out:
    • Minimum 33” arm length
    • Minimum 24 bench reps
    • Minimum 30” vertical
  • Bjoern Warner, Datone Jones, and Margus Hunt fall within these parameters for this draft class.
  • When reviewing 4-3 scheme defensive ends drafted since 2004 who became all-pro players, the following tendencies stood out:
    • Sub 4.8 40-yard-dash
    • Minimum 34.5” arm length
  • Ezekiel Ansah, Cornelius Washington, and Corey Lemenier fall in these parameters for this draft class.
DEFENSIVE TACKLE
  • Elite defensive tackles (like B.J. Raji, Ndamokung Suh, and Halodi Ngata) all had a shuttle under 4.7 seconds and had over 30 bench reps when entering the draft.
  • The only defensive tackles in this draft class who exceeded 30 bench reps was Josh Boyd.
  • Sheldon Richardson, Bennie Logan, and Chris Jones all had 30 bench reps.
OUTSIDE LINEBACKER
  • 3-4 scheme outside linebackers drafted in the first round that went on to become all-pro players showed the following tendencies:
    • Sub 4.65 40-yard-dash
    • Minimum 33” arm length
    • Minimum 120” broad jump
  • Barkevious Mingo and Dion Jordan both fall in these parameters in this draft class.
  • 4-3 scheme outside linebackers that have had great success in their careers by being versatile linebackers had sub 4.7 40-yard-dash times and a 20-yard shuttle time at 4.2 seconds. (Notable: DeMeco Ryans and A.J. Hawk.)
  • John Bostic and Khaseem Green are the only two outside linebacker in the draft class with these parameters.
CORNERBACK
  • No cornerback shorter than 5-10 has been drafted in the first round of the draft.
  • Furthermore, the average parameters of the top cornerbacks drafted are: 5-11, 195 lbs with a 4.4 40
.
SAFETY
Much like the offensive guard discussion, many do not believe a safety should be drafted in the top 10. In this year’s draft, many believe three safeties will be drafted in the first round. In review of safeties drafted towards the top half of the first round, the following parameters stood out:

  • Broad Jump greater than 120”
  • Sub 4.6 40-yard-dash time
  • Kenny Vaccaro, Eric Reid, and Phillip Thomas are three of the top safeties with these parameters
 
The Sideline View set out to find any trending data that may provide baselines of what NFL scouts look for the in draft. In doing so, we compiled one of the largest draft/combine databases ever created. Through the process of breaking down and analyzing this data, we have found several trends that may give us a hint towards who will be selected where in tonight's NFL Draft.
Click to expand...

Defensive Ends

When reviewing 3-4 scheme defensive ends drafted since 2004 who became all-pro players, the following tendencies stood out:
Minimum 33” arm length
Minimum 24 bench reps
Minimum 30” vertical
Bjoern Warner, Datone Jones, and Margus Hunt fall within these parameters for this draft class.
When reviewing 4-3 scheme defensive ends drafted since 2004 who became all-pro players, the following tendencies stood out:
Sub 4.8 40-yard-dash
Minimum 34.5” arm length
Ezekiel Ansah, Cornelius Washington, and Corey Lemenier fall in these parameters for this draft class.
Click to expand...

Complete Story

Very interesting read.
 
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