Carr=McNair

[infantrycak]

Let's hope Palmer isn't just feeling giddy:

Texans offensive coordinator Chris Palmer will be vacationing on Cape Cod, probably attending a few Cape League baseball games, after his final coaching sessions before training camp. Palmer believes quarterback David Carr, in his third season, is about to take the big leap into the elite ranks. "He's knocking on the door," Palmer said. "Normally quarterbacks really start to get to that next level in Years 3-6, and it looks like David is right there. He's a guy who's big, has a big arm, and is a lot more mobile than people think. A lot of people here feel he's taking a similar path as Steve McNair, who was a young player with the Houston Oilers. And I think that's a great analogy." Palmer feels the offseason acquisition of former Dolphin left tackle Todd Wade will continue to improve Carr's protection.

Link

[Tulip]

Now if we can get Palmer to actually make the calls that make great players, we'll be good. If I have to see AJ running a bunch of five yard outs (a la Greg Davis and Roy Williams) this season, I may have no hair left come December.

[Vinny]

I think the conservative nature of our team has more to do with Capers than Palmer.

On Carr, year 3 is when guys like Pennington and McNair started to show they can dominate a game at times by themselves. I have my fingers crossed and look for big things. Very exciting year.

[aj.]

David Carr and Steve McNair's paths analagous? Their paths couldn't be more different. McNair entering his third year had started a grand total of 6 games. Sounds like Palmer needs to lay off the Jack Daniels.

Pennington started zero games until his third year when he came in and dominated in his first season as a starter.

[TexasAggie]

Man I never considered Carr the runner that McNair is. It must give Carr pause for thought for your coach to compare you to an elite QB. Hope Palmer has it right and this is the year we start to see it on the field in the games.

[Fiddy]

All I ask from Carr is more TDs than INTs and a better completion rate (that might be a lot), if he does those 2 things he will be successful and wins will follow

Carr can run, remember the Vick-esque run against the Falcons and that nasty shake on that Saints player?

[Vinny]

Originally Posted by aj.

David Carr and Steve McNair's paths analagous? Their paths couldn't be more different. McNair entering his third year had started a grand total of 6 games. Same with Pennington who started zero games until his third year when he came in basically as a rookie on the field and dominated. Sounds like Palmer needs to lay off the Jack Daniels.

I didn't see where Palmer is saying they have the same on-field training in years one and two. I just see where he mentions that Carr has the look of a guy who will break out in his third year...or did you read something I didn't? Pennington may have had no snaps by his third year but he was no rookie. He had 3 NFL training camps by then.

[aj.]

Must have.

This is what I read: "he's taking a similar path as Steve McNair, who was a young player with the Houston Oilers. And I think that's a great analogy."

I don't see Carr and McNair "taking a similar path" in anything or see what McNair (or Pennington did for that matter) in their first two years as analagous to Carr's situation in any case other than they were/are all about the same age when they either started games or sat on the sideline watching. Carr has much more game experience at the same point in his career as either McNair or Pennington. I see Carr and Troy Aikman on the same path in their first two seasons in terms of production and experience and I can only hope that Carr stays on that path.

Pennington may have had no snaps by his third year but he was no rookie. He had 3 NFL training camps by then

Entering their third seasons Pennington had zero snaps as an NFL QB and Carr has what 1,500? That's even a more divergent path than McNair and Carr.

[Vinny]

Well, if you want to split hairs, then quote the entire quote.

"A lot of people here feel he's taking a similar path as Steve McNair"

He doesn't quite say if he thinks this or not, but merely saying that "a lot of people" are saying this but yes, I guess he also says he agrees with it.

...and not worth arguing over. (added this late)

[aj.]

I can comprehend english. Thanks.

The only thing that's analagous might be IF Carr has his breakout in his third year.... but when one QB has something like 27 starts in two seasons and the other has 6 (and the other has 0) I can safely say they haven't been on the same path. If Carr is smart, he will find the path that McNair found in year three and follow it, but up until now their careers couldn't have been more different in their first two seasons.

[Vinny]

Originally Posted by aj.

I can comprehend english. Thanks.

No one is insulting you aj. We are just talking about the article. I wish you would let this kind of stuff go.

[aj.]

Let what go? I wasn't insulted by anyone. Was I?

[Vinny]

ok, my fault.

no problem.

[Lucky]

Originally Posted by aj.

...I see Carr and Troy Aikman on the same path in their first two seasons in terms of production and experience and I can only hope that Carr stays on that path.

Now that is an excellent analogy. Aikman came into the league with an expansion like talent base surrounding him. In a matter of 3 seasons, the talent improved to the level of a playoff team. We know what happened after that. Does Carr have the type of talent around him that Aikman had in year 3? I don't know. Possibly. Seems like a lot of people, including Palmer, think this is the season Carr breaks out.

Aikman's 1st 3 seasons
1989 52.9% 1749 yards 9 TDs 18 INTs 55.7 QB Rat (11 games)
1990 56.6% 2579 yards 11 TDs 18 INTs 66.6 QB Rat
1991 65.3% 2754 yards 11 TDs 10 INTs 86.7 QB Rat (12 games)

Carr's 1st 3 seasons
2002 52.5% 2592 yards 9 TDs 15 INTs 62.8 QB Rat
2003 56.6% 2013 yards 9 TDs 13 INTs 69.5 QB Rat (12 games)
2004 ??????

Don't be fooled by Aikman's TD total in '91, it was a breakout year. He led Dallas to some big wins and made the Pro Bowl.

[Fiddy]

Originally Posted by Lucky

Don't be fooled by Aikman's TD total in '91, it was a breakout year. He led Dallas to some big wins and made the Pro Bowl.

Pro Bowl with 11 TDs? Thats like Keyshawn Johnson making the Pro Bowl with only 1 TD reception in '01.

[BornOrange]

Aikman was in the Pro Bowl with only 11 TD's???

I bet it was a weak year for NFC QB's, or a lot of them decided not to go to the Pro Bowl.

[wags]

Carr will have better numbers than Aikman did in his third year, if he stays healthy. When I look at Carr's TD-INT difference I always include his rushing TD's just to be completely fair to him. A touchdown is a touchdown to me. I think he has 2 and 3 respectively.

[infantrycak]

[Edit--ok quicksdraw magraw beat me. Anyway this set uncludes the yards per attempt as well]

The Carr/Aikman comparison is interesting:

Troy Aikman

| 1989 dal | 11 | 155 293 52.9 1749 6.0 9 18
| 1990 dal | 15 | 226 399 56.6 2579 6.5 11 18
| 1991 dal | 12 | 237 363 65.3 2754 7.6 11 10

David Carr

| 2002 hou | 16 | 233 444 52.5 2592 5.8 9 15
| 2003 hou | 12 | 167 295 56.6 2013 6.8 9 13

So if Carr is to progress as Aikman did it may not show up in a ton of TD's or yardage but will show up in a lot fewer INT's, a higher passing percentage and higher yards per attempt. Pre-injury last year, Carr's passing percentage was actually close to 60% and his ypa were at 7.5 so he was headed down that path--his INT rate was still unacceptable but the ratio was better than the post-injury rate. Do agree that Carr is far more mobile than a lot of people credit him with. Going to be a fun season to watch.

[infantrycak]

Originally Posted by BornOrange

Aikman was in the Pro Bowl with only 11 TD's???

I bet it was a weak year for NFC QB's, or a lot of them decided not to go to the Pro Bowl.

First, take note that he only played 12 games that year. Second, take a gander at the completion percentage--65.3%. Exactly two QB's beat that last year--Manning 67% and Favre 65.5%. In 2002 that would have put him in 4th spot. The pro-bowl shouldn't be just about yards or TD's but about being an effective QB--Aikman was definitely that.

Combine that kind of passing percentage with Emmitt Smith and you don't need huge #'s of TD's to have a great football team.

[aj.]

The tight end was a big reason for that completion percentage. That was the coming out year for Smith, Irvin, Novacek, and Aikman as a group.

Carr has a real o-line and the weapons around him to succeed. Let's see what he can do with it. I can live with a mid-50's completion percentage if he could just reverse the TD/Int thingy.

Looks like Mark Rypien and Chris Miller were the two other NFC Pro Bowlers that year.