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Old 03-12-2013   #1
infantrycak
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Default The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

So it has been customary of late to slag Schaub's arm whenever any WR is brought up. Latest example Mike Wallace - well he is too fast for Schaub. So decided to look at what we were missing out on. Since Wallace was what brought this up I looked up Big Ben first but below are some other prominent QB's (when I say thrown I mean in the air, not the result of the play):

Big Ben - 17 attempts, 4 completions, 23.5%. (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Peyton - 20 attempts, 7 completions, 35% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brady - 19 attempts, 6 completions, 31.5% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Flacco - 38 attempts, 8 completions, 21% (2 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brees - 32 attempts, 12 completions, 37.5% (4 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Rodgers - 13 attempts, 5 completions, 38% (1 completion over 40 yards thrown)

Schaub - 17 attempts, 6 completions, 35% (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)

Here's the kicker for you. All but one of those QB's had 3 TD's which were thrown over 30 yds - that was Brees with 4.

By the way that means these QB's attempted throws over 30 yds 3.9% of the time.

But what the hell, stats are meaningless.
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Last edited by infantrycak; 03-12-2013 at 07:01 PM.
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Old 03-12-2013   #2
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

If Schaub has an issue with deep balls its that he waits a tad too long to release the ball. Maybe some would disagree, but I'd rather see a WR have to wait a bit on a deep ball but end up with a completion then watch open Wrs get over thrown
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Old 03-12-2013   #3
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

Yeah, the Schaub hate around has got to be driven by emotions. Schaub has his faults, but most of the criticism lately haven't been hitting on them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Flacco - 38 attempts, 8 completions, 21% (2 completions over 40 yards thrown)
I mentioned this in another thread & these numbers bear it out. Flacco attempts way too many low percentage passes.... & this is only counting balls thrown over 40 yards. & here, only connecting on 2 of them is kinda like Dwight Howard at the free throw line.
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Old 03-12-2013   #4
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
But what the hell, stats are meaningless.
Haters hate numbers.
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Old 03-12-2013   #5
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by otisbean View Post
If Schaub has an issue with deep balls its that he waits a tad too long to release the ball. Maybe some would disagree, but I'd rather see a WR have to wait a bit on a deep ball but end up with a completion then watch open Wrs get over thrown
If we're talking about new receivers, I completely agree. Anything to increase the chance of a reception & moving the chains.

But.... if we're talking about guys he's been throwing to since 2006 (Andre, OD, Walter), he should be able to lead them with a high level of accuracy, I would think. Other QBs, like Peyton obviously doesn't need 6 years to get his timing down.

Open is open & if we're talking about guys like Andre & OD, you're costing yourself Touch downs. Maybe not on the 40 yards in the air passes, but on your 15 & 20 yarders that should turn into 30 & 40 yard gains.
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Old 03-12-2013   #6
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

I predict this thread will garner all the attention of grandmother in a bikini contest - the cool kids just don't want to hear this stuff.
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Old 03-12-2013   #7
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

Stats don't lie, but when there are only seventeen in the population group, it makes since that you can review each instance individually.

From watching the Texans, I think Schaub either doesn't have the arm or throws too late, or a combination of both.

Maybe the completion of the long balls are because of the wide receivers despite Schaub?

I think Schaub is a good QB, but has areas of improvement, such as stretching out defenses. I don't think defensive coordinators are concerned about Schaub throwing the long ball.
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Old 03-12-2013   #8
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
So it has been customary of late to slag Schaub's arm whenever any WR is brought up. Latest example Mike Wallace - well he is too fast for Schaub. So decided to look at what we were missing out on. Since Wallace was what brought this up I looked up Big Ben first but below are some other prominent QB's (when I say thrown I mean in the air, not the result of the play):

Big Ben - 17 attempts, 4 completions, 23.5%. (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Peyton - 20 attempts, 7 completions, 35% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brady - 19 attempts, 6 completions, 31.5% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Flacco - 38 attempts, 8 completions, 21% (2 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brees - 32 attempts, 12 completions, 37.5% (4 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Rodgers - 13 attempts, 5 completions, 38% (1 completion over 40 yards thrown)

Schaub - 17 attempts, 6 completions, 35% (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)

Here's the kicker for you. All but one of those QB's had 3 TD's which were thrown over 30 yds - that was Brees with 4.

By the way that means these QB's attempted throws over 30 yds 3.9% of the time.

But what the hell, stats are meaningless.

MSR. Excellent post.
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Old 03-12-2013   #9
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

Quote:
Originally Posted by hollywood_texan View Post
I think Schaub is a good QB, but has areas of improvement, such as stretching out defenses. I don't think defensive coordinators are concerned about Schaub throwing the long ball.
From what we've seen, you might be right. But Schaub has made them pay many times.
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Old 03-12-2013   #10
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
So it has been customary of late to slag Schaub's arm whenever any WR is brought up. Latest example Mike Wallace - well he is too fast for Schaub. So decided to look at what we were missing out on. Since Wallace was what brought this up I looked up Big Ben first but below are some other prominent QB's (when I say thrown I mean in the air, not the result of the play):

Big Ben - 17 attempts, 4 completions, 23.5%. (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Peyton - 20 attempts, 7 completions, 35% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brady - 19 attempts, 6 completions, 31.5% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Flacco - 38 attempts, 8 completions, 21% (2 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brees - 32 attempts, 12 completions, 37.5% (4 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Rodgers - 13 attempts, 5 completions, 38% (1 completion over 40 yards thrown)

Schaub - 17 attempts, 6 completions, 35% (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)

Here's the kicker for you. All but one of those QB's had 3 TD's which were thrown over 30 yds - that was Brees with 4.

By the way that means these QB's attempted throws over 30 yds 3.9% of the time.

But what the hell, stats are meaningless.
Quote:
Originally Posted by otisbean View Post
If Schaub has an issue with deep balls its that he waits a tad too long to release the ball. Maybe some would disagree, but I'd rather see a WR have to wait a bit on a deep ball but end up with a completion then watch open Wrs get over thrown
I heard a very interesting interview (a while back) with none other than Dante Pastorini, who BTW had a very strong arm. He suggested that it wasn't Schaub's arm strength as it was as much as his footwork and his progressions.. He suggested that Schaub commits a little too much to progressions rather than commit to the deep ball. Dan went on to say (and I'm paraphrasing here) that if Schaub committed to throwing the deep ball as the first option, he (Schaub) could make the throw. Dan went onto say (again, paraphrasing) that people that think Schaub has a weak arm, just don't know what they're watching..

I believe Dan.
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Old 03-12-2013   #11
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by hollywood_texan View Post
Maybe the completion of the long balls are because of the wide receivers despite Schaub?
I see WR's save QB's all over the league. Eli Manning got his first ring because of one. As far as I am concerned the Ravens are DOA without Boldin in the playoffs. Flacco frequently wing and a prayered the ball which is not something Schaub generally does. Plus remember, we only have one WR right?

Your timing comment and Bill's/Pastorini's has more merit to me than the whole arm strength thing.
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Old 03-12-2013   #12
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

the problem is almost all of schaubs deep throws are off of play action and augmented with threatening running game.

THOSE ARE IDEAL LONG PASSING PLAYS AND YET SCHAUB STILL HAS TROUBLE MAKING THEM.

Some of those guys on those list they dont always work off of play action because of their respective system. Schaub will only throw the long ball if its the play his twin brother gary calls. Conservative gary will only choose long passing plays if its ideal and needed. Those other guys, their degree of difficulty is much greater than schaub. Throwing the deep ball is just one of many problems with matt schaub.

In the analytics era, you can pull out any statistic and make any point you want seem truthful.

Nice moral victory thread and this proves once again how delusional houstonians are with their quarterback.

This is why we got stuck with david carr for so long. Houstonians and the front office were gutless and refused to see what they had in front of them. They kept on making rationalizations instead of making an honest analytical decision and move on from the situation.

Its happening again with schaub.

You people deserve matt schaub and gary kubiak.
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Old 03-12-2013   #13
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
I see WR's save QB's all over the league. Eli Manning got his first ring because of one. As far as I am concerned the Ravens are DOA without Boldin in the playoffs. Flacco frequently wing and a prayered the ball which is not something Schaub generally does. Plus remember, we only have one WR right?

Your timing comment and Bill's/Pastorini's has more merit to me than the whole arm strength thing.
Maybe the timing issue is really about Kubiak's system and play calling?

Kubiak's system does not seem to allow for artistry in the QB position, but a methodical and predictable approach.

From what I see with my own eyes, and stats are not going to persuade me otherwise, the Texans have a problem with the deep ball.
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Old 03-12-2013   #14
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

Jules said it best. Schaub doesn't pass the eyeball test anymore. What did kubiak say. He's won like 75% of his starts last few years. So what. Just a stat
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Old 03-12-2013   #15
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

Numbers don't lie, but they don't always tell the whole truth. I don't know if it's his arm strength or if he's not technically right, but he's nowhere as good as some of the other QBs. In this instance "seeing is believing" saying applies to me. You only have to look at that Colts game where he fluttered a pass that was picked off and then overthrew AJ for another pick. Even when he does get the ball deep, the receiver almost always has to slow down and reach back to make the catches. Schaub is who he is and I've accepted that fact. The key to next season will be whether or not Kubiak will change his offense and be more up tempo. If he can do that successfully we'll be fine as an offense and should be in the playoffs again, but beyond that I don't know.
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Old 03-12-2013   #16
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by Nawzer View Post
Numbers don't lie, but they don't always tell the whole truth. I don't know if it's his arm strength or if he's not technically right, but he's nowhere as good as some of the other QBs. In this instance "seeing is believing" saying applies to me. You only have to look at that Colts game where he fluttered a pass that was picked off and then overthrew AJ for another pick. Even when he does get the ball deep, the receiver almost always has to slow down and reach back to make the catches. Schaub is who he is and I've accepted that fact. The key to next season will be whether or not Kubiak will change his offense and be more up tempo. If he can do that successfully we'll be fine as an offense and should be in the playoffs again, but beyond that I don't know.
Schaub looked great until December. He looked bad after that. I don't know why. Perhaps it was his foot... Some of his underthrows late in the year were inexplicable, and it did appear he could not drive the ball like he usually can (not that he has a gun). Hopefully, it was an injury that can/will heal or some other correctable issue. I'm not worried until I see those problems continue this coming year.
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Old 03-12-2013   #17
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by Jules Winnfield View Post
the problem is almost all of schaubs deep throws are off of play action and augmented with threatening running game.

THOSE ARE IDEAL LONG PASSING PLAYS AND YET SCHAUB STILL HAS TROUBLE MAKING THEM.

Some of those guys on those list they dont always work off of play action because of their respective system. Schaub will only throw the long ball if its the play his twin brother gary calls. Conservative gary will only choose long passing plays if its ideal and needed. Those other guys, their degree of difficulty is much greater than schaub. Throwing the deep ball is just one of many problems with matt schaub.

In the analytics era, you can pull out any statistic and make any point you want seem truthful.

Nice moral victory thread and this proves once again how delusional houstonians are with their quarterback.

This is why we got stuck with david carr for so long. Houstonians and the front office were gutless and refused to see what they had in front of them. They kept on making rationalizations instead of making an honest analytical decision and move on from the situation.

Its happening again with schaub.

You people deserve matt schaub and gary kubiak.
Rep. People can and will spin stats how they like. Watch the games.
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Old 03-12-2013   #18
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

Its going to be a very long offseason.
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Old 03-12-2013   #19
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

If you go back and read my post in the Mike Wallace thread, I never said the word "arm". Getting the ball to the receiver (in stride) down the field has a lot more involved than just pure arm strength. Been watching Schaub underthrow receivers due to whatever bad mechanics since the very first 70 yard TD to AJ back in '07.

This year, the most telling play was when Schaub rolled out on a play action bootleg, planted, surveyed the field, had all damn day to throw it, and then underthrew Casey by at least a couple yards, for an inexcusable INT. Tell me what stat that falls under.
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Old 03-12-2013   #20
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
If we're talking about new receivers, I completely agree. Anything to increase the chance of a reception & moving the chains.

But.... if we're talking about guys he's been throwing to since 2006 (Andre, OD, Walter), he should be able to lead them with a high level of accuracy, I would think. Other QBs, like Peyton obviously doesn't need 6 years to get his timing down.

Open is open & if we're talking about guys like Andre & OD, you're costing yourself Touch downs. Maybe not on the 40 yards in the air passes, but on your 15 & 20 yarders that should turn into 30 & 40 yard gains.
I hear ya. I think he holds the ball a bit to make extra sure the guy is open, if that makes sense. Notice that he doesn't get picked too often going deep. It does cost you TDs but you also end up with 40 completions which aren't bad
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