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Old 03-19-2013   #121
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Default Re: 2013 Compensatory Picks ANNOUNCED tomorrow

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
First thing I do when looking at this stuff is check the signing date, which can be found on ESPN's transactions by team section: Ravens

Williams was after June 1st, so he doesn't count at all:




Next thing to do is figure out the status of the players in question, were they cut or released by their previous team? If so, they don't count.

Ryan McBean released by Broncos: http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_20406808

I can't figure out if Sean Considine finished the season on the Cardinals in 2011, but he was cut by the Panthers in the middle of that season. I have no idea if he counts.

Corey Graham expired rookie deal with Bears, signed as a UFA with Ravens. So we would need to see his contract numbers to see if he qualified.

Anyways, there are a lot of variables about it, just have to have some help with the transactions and contract numbers to make a good estimate.
I forgot about the signing date and players being cut.

So I guess the simple formula works here.

Lost 6, gained 2 (counting Considine) = net loss 4
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Old 03-19-2013   #122
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Default Re: 2013 Compensatory Picks ANNOUNCED tomorrow

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Do NFL front offices know the "secret formula"? If so, then it's pretty stupid not to let the public know how this process works. If not, then it could be to keep GM's from gaming the system to get extra comp picks with the way they sign FA's.
I don't think the GMs actually know the formula for the reason you stated. It kind of makes sense, but the fact is if a team wants to sign a player, I don't think they will squabble over a few hundred grand to prevent another team from getting a slightly better compensatory pick. Most of the picks awarded are going to be 6th and 7th round, which don't mean a whole lot in the grand scheme of things.
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Old 03-19-2013   #123
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Default Re: 2013 Compensatory Picks ANNOUNCED tomorrow

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
I don't think the GMs actually know the formula for the reason you stated. It kind of makes sense, but the fact is if a team wants to sign a player, I don't think they will squabble over a few hundred grand to prevent another team from getting a slightly better compensatory pick. Most of the picks awarded are going to be 6th and 7th round, which don't mean a whole lot in the grand scheme of things.
The thing is somehow the Ravens managed to be one of the teams that has been receiving a ton of comp picks since forever.
And they seem to have a pretty good team overall for quite a long time.

Is there a good formula for a GM to consider?

The Pats are also notorious for having a lot of picks and you can't argue with their success.
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Old 03-19-2013   #124
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Default Re: 2013 Compensatory Picks ANNOUNCED tomorrow

secret formula is identify, select/sign your franchise QB. It's just that Kubiak choose Matt Schaub to be HIS guy.
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Old 03-19-2013   #125
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Default Re: 2013 Compensatory Picks ANNOUNCED tomorrow

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I forgot about the signing date and players being cut.

So I guess the simple formula works here.

Lost 6, gained 2 (counting Considine) = net loss 4
Well, I count 1 qualifying free agent signing (can't confirm Considine):

CB Corey Graham from the Bears for 2 years AAV APY: $1,975,000

By my estimation, he would be worth a 7th, so their net loss would be 5 at best, 4 at worst if Considine qualified. Since the max compensatory picks per team is 4, it's possible that the Ravens qualified for 5, but hit the limit at 4.
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Old 03-19-2013   #126
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Default Re: 2013 Compensatory Picks ANNOUNCED tomorrow

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The thing is somehow the Ravens managed to be one of the teams that has been receiving a ton of comp picks since forever.
And they seem to have a pretty good team overall for quite a long time.

Is there a good formula for a GM to consider?

The Pats are also notorious for having a lot of picks and you can't argue with their success.
Sign lots of guys to short contracts and you will eventually get comp picks. In particular, sign veterans who are likely to be picked up the following year. Even if you sign them for 1 year vet minimum, they can still become a comp pick the next year if someone signs them for more.

Also, having lots of picks that play out their contracts and end up moving on will help. So those comp picks they get might turn into guys who leave the team after 3-4 years and turn into more comp picks, thus keeping the cycle going. That's why the Patriots get so many, they tend to have lots of picks, and as we are seeing this offseason with the Texans, you can't keep everybody.
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Old 03-19-2013   #127
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Default Re: 2013 Compensatory Picks ANNOUNCED tomorrow

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
Well, I count 1 qualifying free agent signing (can't confirm Considine):

CB Corey Graham from the Bears for 2 years AAV APY: $1,975,000

By my estimation, he would be worth a 7th, so their net loss would be 5 at best, 4 at worst if Considine qualified. Since the max compensatory picks per team is 4, it's possible that the Ravens qualified for 5, but hit the limit at 4.
Considine doesn't need to be figured in, we both see that.

Like you, I'm interested to see if we can "learn" something, but we can't, in this instance.

It would have been an excercise if the Ravens only lost 5 instead of 6; then we would know for sure if Considine counts or not (and get a lesson out of the scenario.)
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Old 03-19-2013   #128
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Default Re: 2013 Compensatory Picks ANNOUNCED tomorrow

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
Sign lots of guys to short contracts and you will eventually get comp picks. In particular, sign veterans who are likely to be picked up the following year. Even if you sign them for 1 year vet minimum, they can still become a comp pick the next year if someone signs them for more.

Also, having lots of picks that play out their contracts and end up moving on will help. So those comp picks they get might turn into guys who leave the team after 3-4 years and turn into more comp picks, thus keeping the cycle going. That's why the Patriots get so many, they tend to have lots of picks, and as we are seeing this offseason with the Texans, you can't keep everybody.
James would have been a good example of this if he had produced more as a starter & then was signed in FA.
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Old 03-19-2013   #129
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Default Re: 2013 Compensatory Picks ANNOUNCED tomorrow

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James would have been a good example of this if he had produced more as a starter & then was signed in FA.
We can always hope somebody picks him up for slightly above the veteran minimum. The FA signing period isn't over yet.
Who knows, LOL!
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