2013 Compensatory Picks ANNOUNCED tomorrow

[Dutchrudder]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

Dutch, is there any quick way to look at the state of the other 31 teams?

I'm not aware of good source for comp pick projections for the entire NFL. I thought about doing it this year, but when I started to look into it, it was just too much work to get through. You can see someone else's projections that Beerlover linked above, but that one really misses the mark on valuations of contracts. No way Josh Morgan is worth a 3rd, probably a 4th, possibly a 5th.

AdamJT used to project all the picks each year, and he was a good source, but he didn't do it the last two years. So I don't really know where to look for it anymore.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by powda

Good stuff sand. Maybe i'll stop looking at this from a team pov and approach it from a city standpoint. We've been wandering in the desert for a long time if you include the oilers. Now thats not fair to anyone with the Texans...but goddamned this city is due.

I think every time we have a team that is pegged to go deep into the play-offs at the beginning of the season, we should be happy.

Like last year; if not for the loss of Cushing and then the run of injuries at ILB late in the season, we would have had a better chance at getting HFA, and most probably a better chance at going deeper into the play-offs.

JJo playing hurt didn't help; Cody playing hurt didn't help; Jamison getting hurt didn't help; Wade Smith playing hurt didn't help; Caldwell getting hurt didn't help; Newton getting hurt and playing hurt didn't help.

With just a little better luck in the injury department, I see an extra win easily.

[djohn2oo8]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

I think every time we have a team that is pegged to go deep into the play-offs at the beginning of the season, we should be happy.

Like last year; if not for the loss of Cushing and then the run of injuries at ILB late in the season, we would have had a better chance at getting HFA, and most probably a better chance at going deeper into the play-offs.

JJo playing hurt didn't help; Cody playing hurt didn't help; Jamison getting hurt didn't help; Wade Smith playing hurt didn't help; Caldwell getting hurt didn't help; Newton getting hurt and playing hurt didn't help.

With just a little better luck in the injury department, I see an extra win easily.

Injuries cannot be used as an excuse. The Texans were down 17-13 at the half at New England, had Schaub just nutted up the Texans could have gone deeper .

[powda]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

I think every time we have a team that is pegged to go deep into the play-offs at the beginning of the season, we should be happy.

Like last year; if not for the loss of Cushing and then the run of injuries at ILB late in the season, we would have had a better chance at getting HFA, and most probably a better chance at going deeper into the play-offs.

JJo playing hurt didn't help; Cody playing hurt didn't help; Jamison getting hurt didn't help; Wade Smith playing hurt didn't help; Caldwell getting hurt didn't help; Newton getting hurt and playing hurt didn't help.

With just a little better luck in the injury department, I see an extra win easily.

Last year I wanted 2 playoff victories. More then that was icing. I thought that was reasonable as a fan.

Looking at next years schedule, I wont be surprised if we take a step back.

[mussop]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

I think every time we have a team that is pegged to go deep into the play-offs at the beginning of the season, we should be happy.

Like last year; if not for the loss of Cushing and then the run of injuries at ILB late in the season, we would have had a better chance at getting HFA, and most probably a better chance at going deeper into the play-offs.

JJo playing hurt didn't help; Cody playing hurt didn't help; Jamison getting hurt didn't help; Wade Smith playing hurt didn't help; Caldwell getting hurt didn't help; Newton getting hurt and playing hurt didn't help.

With just a little better luck in the injury department, I see an extra win easily.

Yep as long as you make it to the playoffs and get heathy and on a roll at the right time you have a chance. Look at what Baltimore did this year. Mid season there defense was a mash unit and people were calling for Flackos head.

[Doppelganger]

Originally Posted by powda

Last year I wanted 2 playoff victories. More then that was icing. I thought that was reasonable as a fan.

Looking at next years schedule, I wont be surprised if we take a step back.

The problem with looking at schedules is you have no idea how a team will actually play vs the perception on paper. Lots of teams last year did not meet expectations(such as the Steelers). Who is to say the Texans won't win another 12 games or even get to 13? Each week, the Texans play only 1 opponent: not 31.

A handful of plays throughout the year can result in the difference between a 6-10 year and a 10-6 year.

[Big Lou]

Originally Posted by the wonger need food

A little sensative about Rick Smith I see.

2 playoff wins in 7 seasons. That's on the entire organization including your boy. They really need to make a bold move this offseason unless they are content with simply filling seats which seems to be the MO these days.

Smith has been building a team. The team was in shambles when he arrived, and although there aren't any rings in Houston yet, he's definately been going the right direction. You don't build a dynasty in a year or two, you just wreck the Cap. Rick isn't perfect, but I think he's batting well over .500 in my opinion.

It may be boring at times, but stability has been good for this franchise. A lot of teams have ADD and run in different direction every year or two, sure some may make a deep playoff run here and there, but the next year they bust and start over.

[eriadoc]

Originally Posted by Big Lou

Smith has been building a team. The team was in shambles when he arrived, and although there aren't any rings in Houston yet, he's definately been going the right direction.

The other top 5 teams that were in shambles when Rick Smith came to Houston were, in order of draft pick, the Saints, Titans, Jets, Packers, and Niners. There are three Super Bowl wins and a couple extra championship games mixed in there. Do with that what you will; just thought I'd offer it up for consideration.

[powda]

Originally Posted by eriadoc

The other top 5 teams that were in shambles when Rick Smith came to Houston were, in order of draft pick, the Saints, Titans, Jets, Packers, and Niners. There are three Super Bowl wins and a couple extra championship games mixed in there. Do with that what you will; just thought I'd offer it up for consideration.

ziiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiing!

[sandman]

Originally Posted by djohn2oo8

Injuries cannot be used as an excuse. The Texans were down 17-13 at the half at New England, had Schaub just nutted up the Texans could have gone deeper .

PATS: First possession of 3rd Quarter, Brady goes 4-5 for 56 yards, Pats go 69 total for a rushing TD. Texans D forces only ONE third down.

TEXANS DOWN 10

TEXANS: First possession of 3rd Quarter, 3-and-Out with Schaub 1-2 on two short passes to OD

PATS: Second possession of 3rd Quarter, 3-and-Out with Brady going 1-3 for 5 yards

TEXANS: Second possession of 3rd Quarter, Schaub goes 4-5 for 56 yards, including two 20+ yard passes. Fumbles but recovers it. Throws INT.

TEXANS STILL DOWN 10

PATS: Third possession of 3rd Quarter, Brady goes 3-3 for 26 yards and TD, Ridley rushes three times for 37 yards. Texans D forces NO third downs.

TEXANS DOWN 17

TEXANS: Third possession of 3rd Quarter/Start of 4th, Schaub goes 2-4 for 16 yards, Foster rushes three times for 2 yards. Went for it on 4th down, incomplete.

PATS: First possession of 4th Quarter, Brady one play for TD.

TEXANS DOWN 24

In these series, Schaub was 7-11 for 73 yards and an INT. Not a good quarter, but not an "OMG this was the worst quarter of football ever played!" thing either.

Brady on the other hand, along with the entire NE offense, pretty much made the Texans D toss his salad. They racked up 170 yards and 21 points on 19 total plays from scrimmage. Through FOUR possessions they only had TWO third downs.

Sorry, but one INT by Schaub doesn't come near the lack of nut-up that the defense had in that quarter.

[Dutchrudder]

@McClain_on_NFL
I'm thinking Texans should get third round pick for Mario Williams and maybe one more.

Guess we shall see who is right in a short while...

[eriadoc]

This is tomorrow, right?

[Dutchrudder]

Originally Posted by eriadoc

This is tomorrow, right?

Yeah, it was a premature thread start from yesterday.

[The Pencil Neck]

Originally Posted by eriadoc

The other top 5 teams that were in shambles when Rick Smith came to Houston were, in order of draft pick, the Saints, Titans, Jets, Packers, and Niners. There are three Super Bowl wins and a couple extra championship games mixed in there. Do with that what you will; just thought I'd offer it up for consideration.

That's an interesting topic.

The only one of those teams I'd have considered a shambles was the Niners. They went 8 straight years without a winning season. The others all had some success before a bad season and had bases to work from.

Other teams that I would have considered shambles at that time were the Browns, Lions, and Rams. Not many playoff wins or... just wins PERIOD... since 2006 for those guys.

[The Pencil Neck]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

Yeah, it was a premature thread start from yesterday.

Premature thread is premature.

[sandman]

Originally Posted by eriadoc

The other top 5 teams that were in shambles when Rick Smith came to Houston were, in order of draft pick, the Saints, Titans, Jets, Packers, and Niners. There are three Super Bowl wins and a couple extra championship games mixed in there. Do with that what you will; just thought I'd offer it up for consideration.

Saints - Had a winning record from 2000 to 2005, and reached playoffs once. Had one bad year in 2006 going 3-13. Have a winning record and gone to playoffs four times since 2006 with one Super Bowl. NOT SHAMBLES

Titans - Averaged 11 wins per season from 1999 to 2003, made playoffs 4 out of 5 years and went to Super Bowl. Had two poor seasons in 2004 and 2005. They rebounded with four years above .500 and two playoff appearances. NOT SHAMBLES

Jets - Had one losing season between 1997 to 2004 with four playoff appearances. Had one bad year in 2005. Posted winning record and 3 playoff appearances since. NOT SHAMBLES

Packers - 13 straight winning seasons from 1992 to 2004 with 10 playoff appearances and a Super Bowl win. One bad year in 2005. Have made playoffs 5 out of 7 years since. NOT SHAMBLES

Niners - Possibly the only "shambles" team in your list, because they had four straight losing seasons before 2006. Of course, the four losing seasons from 2007-2010 before becoming good the last two years looks an awful lot like Rick Smith's career trajectory.

So four of the five teams you mentioned were historically good and even playoff teams before having one bad season, quickly rebounding to their winning ways.

The Texans, on the other hand, were an expansion team that was 18-46 through four years, coming off of one of the worst seasons in NFL history with HWSNBN holding all of their career passing records, before bringing Kubiak and Smith on board. Big, big difference.

[Doppelganger]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

@McClain_on_NFL
I'm thinking Texans should get third round pick for Mario Williams and maybe one more.

Guess we shall see who is right in a short while...

I am projecting the texans get 2 compensatory picks. I believe one of the keys in this formula is FAs lost-FAs signed. The Texans lost 4(Mario, Brisiel, Allen, and Dreesen) and signed 2 (James and Donnie Jones). 4-2=2. To figure out the round, you look at level of play, contract to replace, etc. James and Jones were low contract offers, so they would cancel Allen and Dreesen. That leaves two higher level contracts that were lost without a signed alternative.

Based on Mario's contract that should be a 3rd rounder. Briesel is tougher, so I will say somewhere between 5-7 for him.

So I am projecting a 3rd plus 5,6,or 7th for the Texans.

[Playoffs]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

Yeah, it was a premature thread start from yesterday.

Awww, man .... I've been scanning the wires.

[Dutchrudder]

Originally Posted by Doppelganger

I am projecting the texans get 2 compensatory picks. I believe one of the keys in this formula is FAs lost-FAs signed. The Texans lost 4(Mario, Brisiel, Allen, and Dreesen) and signed 2 (James and Donnie Jones). 4-2=2. To figure out the round, you look at level of play, contract to replace, etc. James and Jones were low contract offers, so they would cancel Allen and Dreesen. That leaves two higher level contracts that were lost without a signed alternative.

Based on Mario's contract that should be a 3rd rounder. Briesel is tougher, so I will say somewhere between 5-7 for him.

So I am projecting a 3rd plus 5,6,or 7th for the Texans.

Both James and Jones signed vet minimum deals and do not count at all in the compensatory pick equation.

[HOU-TEX]

Originally Posted by eriadoc

This is tomorrow, right?

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

Yeah, it was a premature thread start from yesterday.

Originally Posted by Playoffs

Awww, man .... I've been scanning the wires.

It actually IS today

Aaron Wilson‏@RavensInsider
Compensatory selections to be announced later today by the NFL