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Old 02-13-2013   #1
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Default Texans Lead NFL.......in RUNS on 3rd And Long

We've had a thread where we discussed the Texans "Three and Out Percentages." Now we can look at......

Quote:
RTC: Numbers on Texans 3rd-and-long runs
February, 12, 2013
Feb 12
10:55
AM ET
By Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com

Houston Texans

The Texans faced 101 third-and-long situations. 23 of them were runs,” says Rivers McCown of Battle Red Blog. "That rate of 22% is nearly triple the league-average rate. A better way to say that? The Texans called nearly 9% of all third-and-long runs in the entire league last year."

To which I say: Great numbers here that really show Gary Kubiak’s unwillingness not just to take chances on third downs, but simply to throw. He really needs to self-evaluate in this area.
Is it Kubiak's "unwillingness" to pass on 3rd and long due to his own insecurity in taking chances in general........or is it a function of recognizing his QB's limitations?


This piece I present below is from 2009 ADVANCEDNFLSTATS.COM can add some comparative perspective to the 3rd and long subject. I would also have to keep in mind that in just the last couple of years, I believe that we have seen a distinct trending of most teams to lean more to the passing game than in the past.

Run-Pass Imbalance on 2nd and 3rd Downs
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Old 02-13-2013   #2
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Default Re: Texans Lead NFL.......in RUNS on 3rd And Long

No surprise on that one. Wonder how many attempted passes were short of first down marker.
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Old 02-13-2013   #3
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Default Re: Texans Lead NFL.......in RUNS on 3rd And Long

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No surprise on that one. Wonder how many attempted passes were short of first down marker.
Short of the marker does not bother me as much as it does others. The defense knows where the first down marker is also. The problem for the Texans is that there are only two guys on offense where it is a reasonable bet for them to make a play based on thier skill to get to a first down Andre and Arian. Need more guys who can in some way make a play when the coverage dictates that the ball won't get the first down stick.
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Old 02-13-2013   #4
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Default Re: Texans Lead NFL.......in RUNS on 3rd And Long

I think we were also near the bottom in long passes attempted..not surprising given that we won a lot of games, our style of offense,
Lack of deep threats and the qb we roll out.
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Old 02-13-2013   #5
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Default Re: Texans Lead NFL.......in RUNS on 3rd And Long

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Short of the marker does not bother me as much as it does others. The defense knows where the first down marker is also. The problem for the Texans is that there are only two guys on offense where it is a reasonable bet for them to make a play based on thier skill to get to a first down Andre and Arian. Need more guys who can in some way make a play when the coverage dictates that the ball won't get the first down stick.
It bothers the hell out of me, and I'll tell you why: Defenses began to put heavier press coverage on a WR or TE who was at or just shy of the 1st down marker...and they rarely really bothered with the deeper receivers because they knew where Matt would go.

I started noticing on 3rd and long that we had a tendency to run only one WR or TE shallow and all others went deep...to draw coverage to them and free up the shallow man. But the better teams figured that out and started playing the shallow man a lot harder than they did the deeper receivers. I was sitting there and wondering if there was a pattern, and when it happened in the Patriots playoff game...I noticed it happening over and over again.

This QB has developed David Carr tendencies out of nowhere. This QB was a completely different QB the second half of the season (primarily after the two OT games we won). From that point forward, he really spiraled downward except for the away game at Tennessee. But then again, it was the TITANS.

Throw in a HC whom I think knows he's screwed and doesn't know how to get out of the corner he's painted himself and this entire team into, and it makes for a rough ending to the season.

Gary Kubiak is loyal, though. Matt Schaub will be the default starting QB come camp. Probably no competition for his spot. Gary will think he can maybe have a better year in 2013. In Gary's world, we just need one more shot.
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Old 02-13-2013   #6
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Default Re: Texans Lead NFL.......in RUNS on 3rd And Long

Predicting the run on 3rd and long became a consistent way to get a laugh from everyone in my local sports bar.
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Old 02-13-2013   #7
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Default Re: Texans Lead NFL.......in RUNS on 3rd And Long

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Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan View Post
Short of the marker does not bother me as much as it does others. The defense knows where the first down marker is also. The problem for the Texans is that there are only two guys on offense where it is a reasonable bet for them to make a play based on thier skill to get to a first down Andre and Arian. Need more guys who can in some way make a play when the coverage dictates that the ball won't get the first down stick.
short of the marker bothers me when schaub never hits a guy in stride and he's tackled immediately short of the marker. i blame the qb and playcaller. mainly the playcaller.
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Old 02-13-2013   #8
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Default Re: Texans Lead NFL.......in RUNS on 3rd And Long

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Predicting the run on 3rd and long became a consistent way to get a laugh from everyone in my local sports bar.
It's laughable & disgusting at the same time. Even my wife & a friend of her's while watching a game made a joke after a 3rd & long was announced "Here comes the run!", then they followed it up w/ "If we know they are fixing to run why wouldn't the other team?". That's a fair question that all I could do was shake my head at because low & behold...there came the run.

The sad predictability known as a Gary Kubiak run offense has it's moments where it equates to what I call....pee wee football. It is what it is & we are stuck w/ it for the near future.
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Old 02-13-2013   #9
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Default Re: Texans Lead NFL.......in RUNS on 3rd And Long

Even an Alzheimer's afflicted person remembers that Gary is running the ball on 3rd and long.
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Old 02-13-2013   #10
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Default Re: Texans Lead NFL.......in RUNS on 3rd And Long

So when 76Texan argued against this all season, he was FOS? Yep.

Anyone who watched the games with a critical eye knew that Kubiak was giving up on 3rd down way too often. This is just an official indicator. It's a shame we have to have these sorts of official stats to prove what we already know.
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Old 02-13-2013   #11
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Default Re: Texans Lead NFL.......in RUNS on 3rd And Long

I'm noticing something on 3rd and long:

Teams are blitzing the hell out of Schaub, making him check down. If it was 3rd and 8, NE (example; in the playoff game) released the hounds on him. Obviously, I need to go back and watch some more games and see more. That said, it's not all the blitz,; Schaub stopped stepping into throws in the 2nd half of the season. He faded away, if you will, on these throws. Led to underthrows, etc.
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Old 02-13-2013   #12
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Default Re: Texans Lead NFL.......in RUNS on 3rd And Long

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Originally Posted by ThaShark316 View Post
I'm noticing something on 3rd and long:

Teams are blitzing the hell out of Schaub, making him check down. If it was 3rd and 8, NE (example; in the playoff game) released the hounds on him. Obviously, I need to go back and watch some more games and see more. That said, it's not all the blitz,; Schaub stopped stepping into throws in the 2nd half of the season. He faded away, if you will, on these throws. Led to underthrows, etc.
Well, it's a combo deal.

(1) Blitz Schaub, and (2) Make sure the guy running the sole "escape route" is covered up and tackled as soon as he catches the ball. Then get ready to return a bad Donnie Jones punt...or actually, just stand there and watch his shank punt go out of bounds 25 yards down the field.

Pressure on Schaub and wrapping up the check-down receiver is all you had to do. Good defenses knew to do that against Schaub.
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Old 02-13-2013   #13
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Default Re: Texans Lead NFL.......in RUNS on 3rd And Long

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Originally Posted by ThaShark316 View Post
I'm noticing something on 3rd and long:

Teams are blitzing the hell out of Schaub, making him check down. If it was 3rd and 8, NE (example; in the playoff game) released the hounds on him. Obviously, I need to go back and watch some more games and see more. That said, it's not all the blitz,; Schaub stopped stepping into throws in the 2nd half of the season. He faded away, if you will, on these throws. Led to underthrows, etc.
How is this any different from how any other offense gets handled on 3rd & long? IMO it's not any different. It's how the offense handles the situation & the Texans it seems handles it poorly a majority of the time. I'm sure there are numerous teams that have been blitzed on 3rd & long & have succeeded in converting them by not being forced into calling run plays or draws or checking down to underneath patterns short of the 1st down marker. Not calling for proper protection & sending in a conservative play call along w/ an ineffective #2 wr are all factors that fall on the HC who is suppose to be an offensive genius, but looks anything but that against the likes of the better HC's in the NFL...Belichick & McCarthy to name a few.
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Old 02-13-2013   #14
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Default Re: Texans Lead NFL.......in RUNS on 3rd And Long

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So when 76Texan argued against this all season, he was FOS? Yep.

Anyone who watched the games with a critical eye knew that Kubiak was giving up on 3rd down way too often. This is just an official indicator. It's a shame we have to have these sorts of official stats to prove what we already know.
It's a shame that it takes these type of stats to prove to those that refused to acknowledge the obvious & the truth that they were wrong. Those that already knew normally don't need to justify the obvious.

Don't be too rough on 76 because our great Texan "insider" John McClain was once asked a question about Kubiak being predictable in his online chat & in his normal sarcastic way of answering questions he doesn't deem worthy he basically said that he has never heard that said about kubiak. Really?! McClain is another who foolishly chooses to ignore the obvious on occasion & is exactly why I look elsewhere for Texan/ NFL information.
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Old 02-13-2013   #15
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Default Re: Texans Lead NFL.......in RUNS on 3rd And Long

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How is this any different from how any other offense gets handled on 3rd & long? IMO it's not any different. It's how the offense handles the situation & the Texans it seems handles it poorly a majority of the time. I'm sure there are numerous teams that have been blitzed on 3rd & long & have succeeded in converting them by not being forced into calling run plays or draws or checking down to underneath patterns short of the 1st down marker. Not calling for proper protection & sending in a conservative play call along w/ an ineffective #2 wr are all factors that fall on the HC who is suppose to be an offensive genius, but looks anything but that against the likes of the better HC's in the NFL...Belichick & McCarthy to name a few.
No, you're right. Texans do sort of handle 3rd and long like a group of idiots at times. Sometimes though, I actually don't mind the checkdowns when their is pressure. I don't even want a pick or sack/fumble to happen. SOMETIMES, excuse me, I don't mind.

P.S.; Can we please stop calling Mike McCarthy a genius? Never seen such an "ehhhhh" coach get so much praise.
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Old 02-13-2013   #16
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Default Re: Texans Lead NFL.......in RUNS on 3rd And Long

It's the same strategy Schaub & Kubiak won 12 games with. We beat the Broncos, we beat the Bears, we beat Baltimore.... it worked. We scored a lot of points, we kept our turnovers down.....

It didn't work against the Packers & it didn't work against the Patriots. It didn't work against Minnesota, or Inday @ Indy. But no one expected us to go undefeated right? We were going to win some we shouldn't, & we were going to lose some we shouldn't, right?

The Strategy did not get us to the AFC CHampionship Game.


eh.....
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Old 02-13-2013   #17
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Default Re: Texans Lead NFL.......in RUNS on 3rd And Long

I'd like to see this stat split up to where we are on the field. Makes a big difference if we're pinned inside our own 20 or not. If it's like 80% inside the 20, but around 1-2% outside the 20... then I'm ok with this stat.

You have to keep in mind we have one of the best defenses in football. Why take chances when we don't have to.

If we're playing a high-powered offense, or the defense is playing like crap... then yes, I'd like to see us take more chances. But for majority of this season, we didn't have to.
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Old 02-13-2013   #18
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Default Re: Texans Lead NFL.......in RUNS on 3rd And Long

As with any number, one often has to look deeper.

Of the third and long that the Texans faced, nearly 81% of the time, it was for 11 yards and longer.

The league averaged just 53% (and the Texans number was included).

That's a HUGE difference.

The more important question is why did the Texans get to third and very long a lot more often than the rest of the league?

It could be that the run game sucked.
It could be a false start or a holding penalty that pushed the ball back further.
Or something else.

There are other numbers that add to it to skew the situation further; for example, there were 3 QB scrambles that were scored as runs, but they were really pass plays.
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Old 02-13-2013   #19
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Default Re: Texans Lead NFL.......in RUNS on 3rd And Long

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No, you're right. Texans do sort of handle 3rd and long like a group of idiots at times. Sometimes though, I actually don't mind the checkdowns when their is pressure. I don't even want a pick or sack/fumble to happen. SOMETIMES, excuse me, I don't mind.

P.S.; Can we please stop calling Mike McCarthy a genius? Never seen such an "ehhhhh" coach get so much praise.
I completely understand not wanting a turnover or negative play depending on the field position, but field position is hardly the lone factor that contributes to kubiaks ineffective play calling on 3rd & longs. It really doesn't seem to matter where they are at on the field, 3rd & long on their side of the field results in the same ineffective play calling to eventually punt. 3rd & long on the opposition's side of the field leads to the same ineffective play calling to lead to a FG. We have all seen it at its finest this past season. Those that haven't are simply refusing to acknowledge the truth, but that doesn't change the facts. Kubiak & Dennison are highly predictable on 3rd & long & if the opposition really wants to stall the Texans offense & get off of the field on 3rd & long, send a blitz. Sad but true.

I never claimed McCarthy was a genius. I claimed he was one of the better HC's in the NFL & he has proven that imo because he has dealt w/ the exact situation Kubiak has dealt w/ in the past & has quite a bit more success. Average to mediocre defense, no running game, & relying on the passing offense to carry the team is what McCarthy has dealt w/ & gotten to the playoffs with. Kubiak had the same situation & produced 0 playoffs & 1 winning season 07, 08, & 2009. When finally getting a running game in 2010, kubiak managed to regress going 6-10. I don't think McCarthy is a genius but he has managed to keep his team winning & competitive despite their shortcomings. Something kubiak has proven he has trouble doing. So for that reason I do believe McCarthy is 1 of the better HC's & by far better then kubiak.
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Old 02-13-2013   #20
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Default Re: Texans Lead NFL.......in RUNS on 3rd And Long

Actually, the two runs scored to Schaub were kneel downs to end the game; one scramble was on Yates avoiding pressure.

Two more times, the Texans were working the clock.

And 8 times, they were inside their own 10, mostly deep.
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