Bob McNair's Thoughts...

[dream_team]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

Our running game averaged 20.3 yards per game less (coincidentally the passing game averaged 20.3 yards per game more) and you are blaming the QB?

I was referring to last season.

While Schaub was the QB, we averaged 158.1 rushing and 238.1 passing.

Without Schaub we averaged 144.5 rushing and 187.5 passing. I didn't include playoffs in those stats, or else the rushing average would be even higher, and passing lower.

So yes, I say losing our QBs hurt our offensive yards stats.

My point was we would have most likely been top 10 in offensive yards last season as well if it wasn't for losing two QBs.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by Honoring Earl 34

The Texans front office moves like a glacier .

The Texans are committed to Kubiak's idea of what football should be . It's a finesse type running offense with a short to medium passing game based on play action to dominate the time of possession .

The problem is it's scheme over talent so when it comes down to having to make a play , there's not a bunch of physical mismatches .

Personally, I think this is the result of having crap defensive coordinators who couldn't develop talent. Since Kubiak got here, the majority of our FA signings & high draft picks have gone to the defensive side of the ball & he's been able to field a competent offense with lesser talent.

I was hoping with Wade, we would be able to develop someone like Tim Jamison, Jared Crick, Darryl Sharpton, & Glover Quin (good job there, but I'm thinking that's more on the player than the coaches).

We're not going to possess the majority of mismatches until we invest some talent on the offensive side of the ball. All those pro bowlers are great & a testament to Kubiak & his system, but for many of those guys, the Pro Bowl is probably going to be the highlight of their career & we need guys who expect more.

[GP]

Originally Posted by thunderkyss

After reading this, I decided to do a little research. Didn't come up with anything relevant, but I did notice something.

Only 5 top ten QBs, in passing yards, were in the play offs. Brady, Ryan, Manning, Luck, Rogers..... Four of the 5 made it to the divisional round. 2 made it to the Conference Championship round. None of them made it to the Super Bowl.

Same stats, only 2 top 5 QBs were in the play offs. Brady & Ryan. both made it to the Conference Championship.

The top 3 QBs from 2012, Brees, Stafford, Romo, were on non winning teams (Cowboys 8-8 was the best of the bunch). The top 10 QBs that didn't make the play offs, Brees, Stafford, Romo, Freeman, Palmer, Also on losing teams.

Doesn't mean anything...... just thought it was interesting.

Wow. So uh, like where do QBs like Manning, Brees, and Brady fit into the past 10 years of Conference Championship games and Super Bowls--rather than just THIS year? Cuz they were always there year in and year out to one degree or another. For about a decade.

We're out in the 2nd round two years in a row, one of which Schaub wasn't even the QB.

Question: How much longer do you think Schaub can consistently make the playoffs AND get to a single AFCC game and even at least ONE Super Bowl? Be honest.

My answer: Less probable than the elite QBs you listed, many of whom have already done just that multiple times already.

The NFL is all about probability. Odds. If I'm in Vegas, I'm playing the games that give me the best odds over the house. In the NFL, your team has better odds if it has a better QB. Why can't this just be settled and left alone? Isn't it true? Doesn't a team whose QB is Drew Brees or Peyton Manning or Tom Brady give you a better probable, statistical CHANCE at advancing to the Super Bowl than a team whose QB is Matt Schaub??? On the strict issue of ODDS alone?

[GP]

TK, that post of yours strikes me as a "Well, maybe we CAN win even without an elite QB at the wheel..."

Sure, there will sometimes be an exception to the rule. But being the rule is a lot easier than hoping you're the exception. That goes for anything in life, btw.

[Honoring Earl 34]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

Personally, I think this is the result of having crap defensive coordinators who couldn't develop talent. Since Kubiak got here, the majority of our FA signings & high draft picks have gone to the defensive side of the ball & he's been able to field a competent offense with lesser talent.

I was hoping with Wade, we would be able to develop someone like Tim Jamison, Jared Crick, Darryl Sharpton, & Glover Quin (good job there, but I'm thinking that's more on the player than the coaches).

We're not going to possess the majority of mismatches until we invest some talent on the offensive side of the ball. All those pro bowlers are great & a testament to Kubiak & his system, but for many of those guys, the Pro Bowl is probably going to be the highlight of their career & we need guys who expect more.

What ... Richard Sherman wasn't good ?

You have a point but I've posted somewhere that the Broncos of the late 90's offense had Terrell Davis late round pick , Rod Smith UFA, Ed McCaffery 4th rd by Giants , Shannon Sharpe late pick , Tom Nalen 7th rd , Gary Zimmer traded a 1 and 2 for him , and John Elway older QB.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by GP

Wow. So uh, like where do QBs like Manning, Brees, and Brady fit into the past 10 years of Conference Championship games and Super Bowls--rather than just THIS year? Cuz they were always there year in and year out to one degree or another. For about a decade.

I don't know. Why don't you look it up & tell us what you find?

Originally Posted by GP

We're out in the 2nd round two years in a row, one of which Schaub wasn't even the QB.

...

Originally Posted by GP

Question: How much longer do you think Schaub can consistently make the playoffs AND get to a single AFCC game and even at least ONE Super Bowl? Be honest.

I honestly think we'll be in the play-offs the next three years, I can't really see too much beyond that.

I wouldn't be surprised if we're in the AFCCG next year & a Super Bowl win as well.

Originally Posted by GP

My answer: Less probable than the elite QBs you listed, many of whom have already done just that multiple times already.

I'll answer this later.

Originally Posted by GP

The NFL is all about probability. Odds. If I'm in Vegas, I'm playing the games that give me the best odds over the house. In the NFL, your team has better odds if it has a better QB. Why can't this just be settled and left alone? Isn't it true? Doesn't a team whose QB is Drew Brees or Peyton Manning or Tom Brady give you a better probable, statistical CHANCE at advancing to the Super Bowl than a team whose QB is Matt Schaub??? On the strict issue of ODDS alone?

Originally Posted by GP

TK, that post of yours strikes me as a "Well, maybe we CAN win even without an elite QB at the wheel..."

Sure, there will sometimes be an exception to the rule. But being the rule is a lot easier than hoping you're the exception. That goes for anything in life, btw.

When I said "doesn't mean anything.... just thought it was interesting" I meant just that. I wasn't trying to elude that we don't need a special QB to win a Super Bowl & I agree with you that the odds are in our favor if we had a special QB.

But since you brought it up, I'm not sold that Matt isn't a special QB. Sure he's not mobile, and is laughable outside the pocket. But we've seen him play at a high level for several years now. I've always said that the only thing separating Matt from the "special" QBs is the Ws.. he just doesn't have enough of them.

That's changing. His win percentage has been extremely high the last couple of years & I don't expect that to change. He's got a good team around him & as long as he continues to do his part, which I believe is a little more than "game manager" he'll get there.

I've argued against the guys who said that he lost whatever he had, because of his foot. I don't see that at all. He's the same guy he's always been. Chokes under the big lights.... yup.. but so did Flacco, so did Ryan. So does Foster, so does a lot of guys on our team.

Matt is not "my kind" of QB. I'd take Romo in a heartbeat. But I still think Matt can take us where we want to go.

Haven't seen anything to say any different.

I know some of you guys don't like to compare Schaub to elite players. It hurts your arguments & all.... but if you go back & watch what Brady did in that Baltimore game. You could have put Schaub in there & wouldn't have seen a difference.

[drs23]

Originally Posted by GP

Product and team success are two different things.

One can be highly, continuously successful and bearing a bountiful harvest...while the other can languish and fall short of expectations.

10 times out of 10, a Super Bowl winning team is going to have automatic success in terms of being a cash cow. It's a natural consequence. What teams ever won the Super Bowl and then the following season saw its fan base shrink and regress in its spending on that team's products? I thought so.

But when a team can rake big bucks and never really produce a tried-and-true Super Bowl caliber team...a team who wins the Super Bowl or at least is playing in one...then this is more indicative of the team's savvy when it comes to providing 325 other "products" that the fan(s) enjoy and spend money upon.

I would love to see some sort of study and report that focuses on team's revenue and how it correlates to the mindset of a team's fan base. I think it's cultural to a large extent. I think certain areas of this country are more apt to function a certain way based on that area's cultural identity related to the sport being studied in the report.

In Texas, football is KING. We'll go nuts every year attending high school games, college games, and pro games: Three levels of football that Texas football fans relish with zeal year in and year out. We can tolerate a loser at one of those three levels because we often have a fall-back in one or more of the other two levels we're following. My Texans having a bad year is off-set by how my WTAMU Buffaloes almost made it to the championship game this year. We made it to the semi-finals. I had a fall-back "Option B" I could enjoy.

In California, I've heard many people say that football is popular but it's not nearly as big as it is in Texas and other more rural-minded states.

I think it'd be interesting if Grantland did a big article on this topic.

If anything, Bob McNair is a wise man because I bet his exploratory team--when he considered getting Houston another NFL franchise--did their homework and knew that Texas, of ANY state, would be the nearest thing to a sure-thing in terms of making a healthy profit off of fans come rain or shine. I'm not saying he's the devil and he's greedy. I'm saying he is SMART. Obviously.

In the Texas Panhandle region, in the early 1900s, the oil men hired geologists and even paleontologists ...they discovered that in the dinosaur age there were certain swamps and pools in certain areas of the Texas Panhandle--They knew where to drill and find large caches of dead dinosaurs...OIL!

Bob knew where to drill, folks. Smart man.

Extremely late to this post but an excellent analogy GP.

MSR

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by Honoring Earl 34

What ... Richard Sherman wasn't good ?

You have a point but I've posted somewhere that the Broncos of the late 90's offense had Terrell Davis late round pick , Rod Smith UFA, Ed McCaffery 4th rd by Giants , Shannon Sharpe late pick , Tom Nalen 7th rd , Gary Zimmer traded a 1 and 2 for him , and John Elway older QB.

& how many times did those Broncos get to the play offs without reaching the Super Bowl?

[Honoring Earl 34]

Originally Posted by thunderkyss

& how many times did those Broncos get to the play offs without reaching the Super Bowl?

Those guys except for Elway were 2 for 2 .

[tru80texan]

McNair thinks this team is being shaped up to being better then last seasons team...really? Read why...http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j...44011176,d.eWU

Now I appreciate McNair's take most of the time because he has pointed his GM & HC in the right direction after they couldnt quite figure out some personnel decisions, BUT thinking the Texans are in better position to go to the Super Bowl this season compared to last seems a bit far fetched IMO. I'm not sure if McNair is just trying put something out to the fans to calm the storm as holes are being created on the team & payments for season tickets are being requested, but I can't seriously believe that this team is better then last simply because the owner says so. It could just be me, but the lack of a starting S, ILB, FB, & even P coupled w/ an ailing RT just doesn't make me feel like it's a Super Bowl or bust season. Thoughts???

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by tru80texan

McNair thinks this team is being shaped up to being better then last seasons team...really? Read why...http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j...44011176,d.eWU

Thoughts???

Well, he didn't say we're shaping up to be a better team. He said he's more confident this year that we'll win the Super Bowl than he was last year. He cited being mentally tougher as being the main reason; being there before, gaining experience, that kind of thing.

"We had a lot of players that didn't make plays when they had the opportunity in the playoffs," McNair said. "This thing is a process, and the playoffs are different than regular season. I think the players have to go through that and understand it.

"Everybody picks up their game. You better bring your 'A' game. I know it's easy to say that, but now the players have seen it for the last two years and know what to expect.

"Mentally, we're developing a toughness you have to have."

Read more: http://www.houstonchronicle.com/spor...#ixzz2O6J1IxIi

Honestly, there's no doubt in my mind that he has a better grasp on how things are in the NFL than most of our fans.

Last year, they lost players like outside linebacker Mario Williams, tight end Joel Dreessen, inside linebacker DeMeco Ryans, offensive tackle Eric Winston, receiver Jacoby Jones and cornerback Jason Allen. They still improved by two games over the 2011 season, despite going 1-3 down the stretch.

McNair doesn't like losing players, but he accepts it as reality in the salary-cap world. He knows fans and the media are howling for general manager Rick Smith to sign some free agents.

"I don't panic," McNair said. "We have a plan. We're executing our plan.

Read more: http://www.houstonchronicle.com/spor...#ixzz2O6JeNqU4

[tru80texan]

Originally Posted by thunderkyss

Well, he didn't say we're shaping up to be a better team. He said he's more confident this year that we'll win the Super Bowl than he was last year. He cited being mentally tougher as being the main reason; being there before, gaining experience, that kind of thing.

Honestly, there's no doubt in my mind that he has a better grasp on how things are in the NFL than most of our fans.

With that being said, do you buy it? Do you believe a team that has newly acquired holes & needs simply increases it's chances of being a Super Bowl because the remaining players gained playoff experience? I think talent level of the team is a key factor & that is something I believe the Texans team has recently dropped off a bit in based of it's recent player losses. Granted we don't know what the end of free agency or the draft will bring to the team, but as the team stands now it seems a bit of a reach to assume this is a Super Bowl team because of playoff experience gained.

[Thorn]

Originally Posted by thunderkyss

Well, he didn't say we're shaping up to be a better team. He said he's more confident this year that we'll win the Super Bowl than he was last year. He cited being mentally tougher as being the main reason; being there before, gaining experience, that kind of thing.


Honestly, there's no doubt in my mind that he has a better grasp on how things are in the NFL than most of our fans.

The Texans will be in the playoffs for the 3rd year in a row. This is not a four or five win team, but a playoff team. How deep into the playoffs they go is anyone's guess, and at this point they have as much chance as anyone else to be in the next Super Bowl.

There is NO reason not to be excited for the upcoming season, whatever our beefs are about the team or players. And most assuredly I have some beefs. LOL

[Insideop]

Originally Posted by thunderkyss

Well, he didn't say we're shaping up to be a better team. He said he's more confident this year that we'll win the Super Bowl than he was last year. He cited being mentally tougher as being the main reason; being there before, gaining experience, that kind of thing.

Honestly, there's no doubt in my mind that he has a better grasp on how things are in the NFL than most of our fans.

After reading this MB, and others like it, I can understand why you feel this way.

[GP]

Oh we're in for a tough year, for sure.

There are glaring holes, and a major weakness at QB all of a sudden.

Of course, he'll be setting the NFL world on fire his first 6 or 8 games, and then the real sketchy part begins...can he raise his own game?

I think the division crown comes down to the final three weeks of the season.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by tru80texan

With that being said, do you buy it?

Granted we don't know what the end of free agency or the draft will bring to the team, but as the team stands now it seems a bit of a reach to assume this is a Super Bowl team because of playoff experience gained.

Yeah, I buy it. Like he said, "We're working our plan." New England lost Welker. I don't think we've lost anything like that. The Baltimore Flaccos lost much of their defense.... more than we did. The Broncos look better already, the 49ers & Seahawks look better already.

But this is still a process. If Cushing comes back healthy (& McNair is closer to that situation than I am), if Jjo can come into the season healthy, I'm not too worried about the guy who will play next to Brian. I think we have some options at safety...... I was just talking about how much Harris reminds me of Quin. Haven't seen him tackle enough, but he does remind me of Quin.

Anyway.... this is part of the process. McNair has faith in the organization he put together. He's taking from the positives of last season & working towards getting better. So, why not?

Originally Posted by GP

Oh we're in for a tough year, for sure.

There are glaring holes, and a major weakness at QB all of a sudden.

I don't believe McNair thinks we have a major weakness at QB. He's been pretty consistent with his position as well. We need to put play makers around Matt.

"He's getting criticism he shouldn't get, but he'll probably be tougher as a result of it," McNair said. "It was Matt's first postseason, and I'm sure he learned from it."

McNair hopes Schaub and his teammates on both sides of the ball will use the New England defeat as a learning experience.

"We had a lot of players that didn't make plays when they had the opportunity in the playoffs," McNair said. "This thing is a process, and the playoffs are different than regular season. I think the players have to go through that and understand it.

"Everybody picks up their game. You better bring your 'A' game. I know it's easy to say that, but now the players have seen it for the last two years and know what to expect.

"Mentally, we're developing a toughness you have to have."

Read more: http://www.houstonchronicle.com/spor...#ixzz2O6Ve1o2A

I mean it worked for the Ravens & it got Matt Ryan a play off win (finally).. Schaub is only 3 years older than those two.

[The Pencil Neck]

Originally Posted by tru80texan

With that being said, do you buy it? Do you believe a team that has newly acquired holes & needs simply increases it's chances of being a Super Bowl because the remaining players gained playoff experience? I think talent level of the team is a key factor & that is something I believe the Texans team has recently dropped off a bit in based of it's recent player losses. Granted we don't know what the end of free agency or the draft will bring to the team, but as the team stands now it seems a bit of a reach to assume this is a Super Bowl team because of playoff experience gained.

I buy it.

I don't know if we'll have as good of a record as we had last year but I expect us to be a grittier team that's going to play better in the playoffs.

Every year, teams acquire new holes and needs. It's very rare that you have a team without weaknesses. We've still got a LONG way to go this off-season and there are a lot of deals not done, yet.

I was more worried last year because of losing Brisiel, Winston, and Dreessen. Losing Casey and Quin and a bunch of marginal players doesn't scare me half as much as losing the whole right side of our line along with our best blocking TE.

I think we'll return to more of a classic FB approach. I think we'll get another blocking TE (which is why I like the Maneri option.) And our rookie linemen from last year should be better this year; I wouldn't be surprised if our line ends up being Brown-Smith-Myers-Jones-Brooks. I'm hoping we'll bring Winston back to solidify the line OR find an improvement in either FA or the draft. If we do that, our offense improves.

I think we can find someone to play S who'll play better than Quin did last year. He got burned a lot near the end of the season. I think we're going to upgrade our ILB situation and I wouldn't be surprised if we upgrade our DT/NT situation.

So, yeah. I'm not pushing the panic button on this off-season, yet.

[Porky]

Apparently someone spikes Bob's morning oatmeal with a concoction of LSD and Ecstasy.

[badboy]

I agree with McNair. Josepth and Cush back is big factor and with Schaub having a playoff behind him he should be even better. Other than Quin and Barwin we have basically same starters and I feel Reed and Mercilus will be good. Solid picks for WR2, OLB, Nose and a safety (if no Reed) + a lower round for ILB should be as good as what we had or even better. Newton should be even better even if not 100%. Most importantly I think RG will be resolved with Brooks.