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Old 06-15-2005   #1
Big B Texan Fan
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Default Dominick Davis could be traded @ end of season??

IF Davis has the breakout year we all want and expect him to have, 1400-1700 yards and 12+ TD's and minimal fumbles, then he's gonna be a HOT COMMODITY. He becomes a Restricted Free Agent (RFA) at seasons end if we don't sign him to a new deal between now and 03/01/06 then teams can submit an offer sheet on him. And if the Texans won't/can't match it, then he goes to one of those teams and we get that teams 1st and 3rd round pick (unless some other deal is hammered out) in the upcoming draft in late April. You become a RFA by signing a 3 year deal once drafted (I think, help me out Vinny). Most teams will sign their 3rd and 4th rounder to 3 year deals and then just wait and see what happens. I think Peek is a RFA as well as Ragone, not sure about those two guys though. I'd like to see what you guys think. With Morency in the wings would you be happy with the extra pix especially since next years draft is supposed to churn out 4-5 1st round OT prospects.
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Old 06-15-2005   #2
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Morency is no spring chicken. Not to mention DD knows our system really well now. He is also reliable to a large degree. In the NFL, it is advisable to have two good RB's. Just ask Indy or Denver. I sure hope we resign DD. If he keeps improves his numbers by a little, gets injured less, and the Texans start to win more than they lose. He could be the first Texan in the HOF. IMHO
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Old 06-15-2005   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rittenhouserobz
He could be the first Texan in the HOF. IMHO
Either you have one amazing crystal ball or are getting just a little ahead of yourself. HOF? Still has a VERY long way to go.
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Old 06-15-2005   #4
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I dont know why ya'll think DD is so bad. He finished over a thousand despite injury. He still finished as one of the top ten RBS, what do you guys want? He'll get to 1,400 is he's healthy.
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Old 06-15-2005   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big B Texan Fan
IF Davis has the breakout year we all want and expect him to have, 1400-1700 yards and 12+ TD's and minimal fumbles, then he's gonna be a HOT COMMODITY. He becomes a Restricted Free Agent (RFA) at seasons end if we don't sign him to a new deal between now and 03/01/06 then teams can submit an offer sheet on him. And if the Texans won't/can't match it, then he goes to one of those teams and we get that teams 1st and 3rd round pick (unless some other deal is hammered out) in the upcoming draft in late April. You become a RFA by signing a 3 year deal once drafted (I think, help me out Vinny). Most teams will sign their 3rd and 4th rounder to 3 year deals and then just wait and see what happens. I think Peek is a RFA as well as Ragone, not sure about those two guys though. I'd like to see what you guys think. With Morency in the wings would you be happy with the extra pix especially since next years draft is supposed to churn out 4-5 1st round OT prospects.

Shaun Alexander, Edgerin James, Travis Henry were all made very available by their teams for trade and nobody was willing to part with a 2nd round pick for any of them... I doubt that anyone would sign Davis away from us if we tender him an offer- teams rarely do in those cases.
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Old 06-15-2005   #6
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Good RBs are the least difficult commodity to come by in the NFL. It is still
surprising to me that 3 of the first 5 overall in this years college draft were
RBs, even considering it was a weak draft in general. Therefor, I wouldn't worry too much about where DD plays in the NFL in future years.
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Old 06-15-2005   #7
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I think Domanick deserves a multi-year, multi-million contract from us. He came in as a 4th round draft pick, and tore it up. He is still giving 100% and playing for 4th round money. He isnt complaining about a new contract. He is working for it. I think that is a model player. One you want to keep around.
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Old 06-15-2005   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DC_ROCK
I think Domanick deserves a multi-year, multi-million contract from us. He came in as a 4th round draft pick, and tore it up. He is still giving 100% and playing for 4th round money. He isnt complaining about a new contract. He is working for it. I think that is a model player. One you want to keep around.
Without even getting into exactly how good DD is, I agree with this philosophy generally with player/cap management. Go to DD now with a 5 year $10 mil deal instead of after he gets his 3rd 1000 yd season or even worse stays healthy the entire season and puts up 1400 yds on the ground and 600 in the air--numbers which are clearly easily within his reach if healthy. Then the Texans are looking at 5 years $25 mil.
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Old 06-15-2005   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LCROD
Either you have one amazing crystal ball or are getting just a little ahead of yourself. HOF? Still has a VERY long way to go.
Look at all the Texans so far. Carr has been okay, but not great up til now. AJ also has a great chance to make the HOF if he contiues to improve, but he would probably retire after DD.

DD has performed well each year in the league. The OL is a solid run blocking OL and will improve; furthermore Capers likes running the ball. With an improved line, if he plays 10 years and gets 10, 000 yards in that time with say 150 TDS, then that is impressive to me. The greatest part of my post is "could". Only time will tell this story. I am just projecting what I think could happen.
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Old 06-15-2005   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak
Then the Texans are looking at 5 years $25 mil.
Why would Davis accept less than this? Heck, Lamont Jordan got more from the Raiders and he's never had a 1000 yard season in 4 years. If DD has a DD season, he'll be looking at a 5 year $25 mil from someone. $5 million/year is below the franchise tag number, that's about right for Davis if you think about it.
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Old 06-15-2005   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucky
Why would Davis accept less than this? Heck, Lamont Jordan got more from the Raiders and he's never had a 1000 yard season in 4 years. If DD has a DD season, he'll be looking at a 5 year $25 mil from someone. $5 million/year is below the franchise tag number, that's about right for Davis if you think about it.
Maybe we are on crossed wires here. The difference I am making is signing him to an extension now vs. after his 3rd season. Right now reviews are mixed on him with some people not thinking he is even a legitimate starter and should be relegated to 3rd down duty and others thinking he is a top third RB. In that situation, with another rookie pushing and the benefit of getting a new contract and more importantly new signing bonus now as opposed to a year from now, I can see the Texans getting him signed at a lower price than waiting a year. On the other hand, wait the year while he has a DD year of 1400 yds, etc. and he will know or think he is the man and demand and get big money from someone.
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Old 06-15-2005   #12
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the key sticking point will be the guaranteed portion of the contract & signing bonus. I would hope that the Texans have no problem with even 30 million over 5 years just how much would be in bonus, how much guaranteed and how much incentives? I sincerely expect the Texans will lock DD up to a cap friendly, market fair contract that benifits both parties
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Old 06-15-2005   #13
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Man just hearing about how much he could get has got me hyped for this season, thinking of the damage he will do because of that and the fact that he will now be in his 3rd year in the league.
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Old 06-15-2005   #14
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Quote:
If he keeps improves his numbers by a little, gets injured less,
Backs get less healthy as their careers go on, not more. He might have one or two more seasons of continued slight numerical improvement, but it'll be all downhill from there. Davis is not a Smith or a Payton or a Bettis or a Martin who will be able to carry the ball 300 plus times a season for a decade and more. My guess is that if he gets a lot of carries this year and stays more-or-less healthy, it will be a slight statistical improvement on last year, and that that will be the best year he ever has. If that is the case, hopefully the running back market won't be quite so saturated next year as this and we might manage to trade him for a bottom first or high second (he does have the advantage over James, Alexander and Henry that he doesn't yet have too much wear on the tires). We will be ripping someone off if we do. Morency's age would be a concern if we were looking for him to be a guy who could be the bedrock of our running game for a decade. In reality, if he's productive as part of a rotation for five or six years, and stops Davis holding us over a barrel at the end of the season, he'll have been a very good pick-up.

But mark my words, if Davis is ever, at any point in his entire career, going to have trade value, it will be at the end of this season.

If we want to keep him, we should wind him back down to 250 touches. If we want to trade him, we should give him the ball as much as we did last year, perhaps a little more.
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Old 06-15-2005   #15
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I think Domís a nice back but those who are trashing the Morency pick need to understand that if Dom goes down our entire downhill power running game goes in the dumper for what we hope is a playoff push this year. Everything we planned all summer is toast if we roll into the season with last years depth (and Dom goes down). Morency was needed badly (I wanted one of the top 3 backs if they fell in the draft). No way a legitimate properly stocked running team can be taken seriously as a playoff contender with paper thin depth at a position that tends to have lots of injuries. If you want to argue that Jon Wells can make our offense explosive enough to win in the playoffs, Iíd say he hasnít shown it yet. Just look at some other franchises. The Broncos have a new 1000 yard runner every year and they also stock their teams deep with backs. I donít think the Texans will be a slave to an overpayment at this position when you have a player that has a higher injury risk. The Texans saw big talent sitting there in the 3rd round. Believe it or not, they took talent in Morency. If Hollings is over his injury bug (he will have to prove it), we could have one of the deepest most talented backfields in the NFL. One injury shouldnít kill any shot we have now. Davis will get paid. It will all play out right before our eyes this season and in the NFL things can change in a hurry. Personally, I think he is going to be here for a while, but you never know.
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Old 06-15-2005   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny
I think Domís a nice back but those who are trashing the Morency pick need to understand that if Dom goes down our entire downhill power running game goes in the dumper for what we hope is a playoff push this year. Everything we planned all summer is toast if we roll into the season with last years depth. Morency was needed badly (I wanted one of the top 3 backs if they fell in the draft). No way a legitimate properly stocked running team can be taken seriously as a playoff contender with paper thin depth at a position that tends to have lots of injuries. If you want to argue that Jon Wells can make our offense explosive enough to win in the playoffs, Iíd say he hasnít shown it yet. Just look at some other franchises. The Broncos have a new 1000 yard runner every year and they also stock their teams deep with backs. I donít think the Texans will be a slave to an overpayment at this position when you have a player that has a higher injury risk. The Texans saw big talent sitting there in the 3rd round. Believe it or not, they took talent in Morency. If Hollings is over his injury bug (he will have to prove it), we could have one of the deepest most talented backfields in the NFL. One injury shouldnít kill any shot we have now. Davis will get paid. It will all play out right before our eyes this season and in the NFL things can change in a hurry. Personally, I think he is going to be here for a while, but you never know.
vintage Vinny, very acute readable post

yeah we almost got Cedric didnt we? ha ha ha 3 rb's in the top 10 picks so if Morency is the real deal a 3rd rd pick is a steal....I get that logic. Morency was graded higher than Ryan Moats (went #77) another DD type of back I really liked. getting back to Domanick he has proven that when healthy he can carry a team & be prime time. his receiving skills out of the backfield add verstiltiy and longevity to his game. his health is the key sticking point to his explosivness, generally I would consider him to be very sure handed. so if he stays healthy, doesn't turn the ball over DD is going to have a huge season with little playing time for the Morency or anyone else for that matter

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Old 06-15-2005   #17
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I want to see DD go a full 16 game season before putting him in the HOF.

Don't get me wrong, I see a lot of great potential in him and I've rooted for him since he took the field as a rookie, but seriously, I'm having strong doubts that he's got the stamina to make it an entire season.

Hopefully, all of our backs work well in a platoon system, so they keep them all fresh and give experience to everyone.
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Old 06-15-2005   #18
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I hope there is a day when we can have two Dom threads at the top of this forum and at least one of them spell his name right.
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Old 06-15-2005   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Shush
Backs get less healthy as their careers go on, not more. He might have one or two more seasons of continued slight numerical improvement, but it'll be all downhill from there.
Nice theory completely unsubstantiated or heck even in accordance with facts:

Curtis Martin missed games in each of his 1st four years in the league--guess downhill from there was not having missed a game in the 6 seasons since.

Alexander missed 4 games in his 1st year as a starter and has missed 1 game since.

Dillon missed games in each of his 1st two seasons as a starter before going 3 years until he missed another.

Really love this one--Portis missed more starts in each of his 1st two seasons while carrying the ball under 300 times than he did in his 3rd while carrying the ball 350 times.

Fragile Fred--well they should have just retired him, it was obviously all down hill for him. 4 injury plagued seasons before 3 almost injury free seasons.

RB's get hurt so like Vinny said, having a RB stable is a good idea but good lord, they aren't Dixie cups--step on them once and then dispose.
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Old 06-15-2005   #20
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FINALLY THEY HAVE BEEN LISTENING TO ME! TRADE DOMANICK OR GET A 3RD AND 1ST FOR HIM I like that!
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