ProFootballFocus, ReFocused -- Cinncinnati@Houston

[Playoffs]

ReFo: Bengals @ Texans, AFC Wild Card
Khaled Elsayed | 2013/01/06

...
Houston – Three Performances of Note

Secondary Steps Up

Faced with a tricky task of going one-on-one with A.J. Green, this game was always going to give us the chance to see what Johnathan Joseph (+1.0) was made of. Sure, he got beat deep a couple of times (with an overthrow by Andy Dalton saving him on one occasion) and he missed a tackle that led to a first down, but against a receiver like Green walking away giving up five of nine for 80 yards (with 45 of that coming on one play) isn’t too shabby.

Still, while that was the main event battle, it was in the less publicized battles that Houston dominated. Glover Quin (+2.2) was tasked with the role of ensuring Jermaine Gresham didn’t have any joy in this one, and he won that battle convincingly. Five times Gresham was thrown to in the coverage of Quin, with just one reception for 13 yards to show for it. Quin himself had two pass deflections, while the secondary combined for six in a display that they’ll need to replicate next week.

In Schaub do you Trust?

Playing this kind of football is good enough to beat a lot of teams, as was the case against the Bengals. However, with a New England offensive juggernaut hosting you, you need to be able to keep up with their high powered offense.

With Matt Schaub (-0.3) at the controls, do you think that’s possible?

The Texans’ quarterback looked tentative at best and was rarely prepared to challenge the Bengals’ secondary with anything meaningful. Only three times did he throw the ball over 10 yards in the air, and never did he go deep (over 20 yards). Instead, he largely relied on his receivers, backs and tight ends to do most of the work, with 49.6% of his yards coming after the catch.

That’s without mentioning the horrible pick-six he threw with 9:38 to go in the second quarter that brought the Bengals back to life in a game that appeared to be heading out of their reach quickly. His form down the stretch (that’s now three negatively graded games in a row) is a massive concern.

Living up to the Billing – Part 2

Just another day for the supreme talent that is J.J. Watt (+6.6), and the scary thing is that but for a pair of missed tackles on Andy Dalton, it could have been even better. As it is he walked away with a sack, a hit, four hurries and two batted passes in the passing game, along with a tackle for a loss and three other defensive stops in the run game. He was, as ever, dominant with his blend of speed and power being too much for whichever Bengals linemen drew the short straw to face him on a particular play. A performance fitting for a player crowned the PFF Defensive Player of the Year.

Game Notes

– Duane Brown was the only offensive linemen in this game not to give up a single sack, hit or hurry.

– The Texans missed twice as many (eight) tackles as the Bengals.

PFF Game Ball

It’s hard to look past J.J. Watt, who disrupted the running game and caused any number of problems for Andy Dalton.

read more: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...afc-wild-card/

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by Playoffs

ReFo: Bengals @ Texans, AFC Wild Card
Khaled Elsayed | 2013/01/06

read more: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...afc-wild-card/

That's my favorite Line of the whole article. "Houston getting back to doing what they do well - run the ball & put the QB under pressure."

That's Houston Texans football. That's Gary-ball. That's our only shot to win next week, our only shot to win it all.

We did not play well enough to beat the Patriots. But that game was a statement game, "We're Back!!"

[Thorn]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

That's my favorite Line of the whole article. "Houston getting back to doing what they do well - run the ball & put the QB under pressure."

That's Houston Texans football. That's Gary-ball. That's our only shot to win next week, our only shot to win it all.

We did not play well enough to beat the Patriots. But that game was a statement game, "We're Back!!"

Agreed. I just wish Tate would suddenly come back to his effective style he had last year. If Tate could pound the ball like last year, it would be hard to beat the Texans.

[noxiousdog]

Originally Posted by Thorn

Agreed. I just wish Tate would suddenly come back to his effective style he had last year. If Tate could pound the ball like last year, it would be hard to beat the Texans.

I think Tate has really poor vision. When the holes were big enough to drive trucks through, he had no choice but to find them. This year? Not so much.

You'll notice that they don't run as much inside with Tate. It's almost all tosses and sweeps giving him no options of where to run.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by noxiousdog

I think Tate has really poor vision. When the holes were big enough to drive trucks through, he had no choice but to find them. This year? Not so much.

You'll notice that they don't run as much inside with Tate. It's almost all tosses and sweeps giving him no options of where to run.

I think Tate's been hurt all year. Even when they said he was healthy.... he wasn't & isn't.

[The Pencil Neck]

If Tate's going to continue to be a non-factor, I wouldn't mind seeing a few touches going to Forsett.

Hard to get Foster out of the lineup, though.

[srrono]

The Texans missed (eight) tackles. Wow that scares me.

[b0ng]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

That's my favorite Line of the whole article. "Houston getting back to doing what they do well - run the ball & put the QB under pressure."

That's Houston Texans football. That's Gary-ball. That's our only shot to win next week, our only shot to win it all.

We did not play well enough to beat the Patriots. But that game was a statement game, "We're Back!!"

You can say it's a good sign, but once we start finishing in the RZ, we will then truly be back. Especially if we start causing defensive turnovers again.

[TejasTom]

The Texans’ quarterback looked tentative at best and was rarely prepared to challenge the Bengals’ secondary with anything meaningful. Only three times did he throw the ball over 10 yards in the air...

Pitiful.

[CloakNNNdagger]

This is a mid October 2012 piece from ADVANCEDNFLSTATS.COM that could explain why we can have a great RB, but still struggle to look like a winning team......or, for that matter, consistently win against higher competition, without having a passing game that is not reliable beyond 10 yards.

Running to Create a 'Manageable' 3rd Down Is Self-Defeating

One of the common defenses of a run-heavy offense is that offenses need to make their third downs “manageable,” meaning short enough so that conversion is easier. The thinking goes that if an offense runs on either or both first and second down, it is relatively assured of shorter rather than longer distances on third down. At first look, this makes a lot of sense. After all, who wants to face third and long?

There are two problems with this argument. The first is that football is not a game of piling up first downs. The days of inching toward the goal line on 18-play drives are long gone if they ever existed at all. Football is, for the most part, a game of maximizing score differential, and the concept of Expected Points shows that NFL offenses are generally running too often on first and second down.

The second problem is that even if gaining a first down is the primary objective, running on first down is becoming a worse idea every year. The graph below shows that passing on first down leads to a conversion more often than running on first down. As usual, I limited the data to plays in ‘normal’ football situations, when the score is relatively close and time is not yet a factor at the end of either half.








Further graph analysis is available in the link posted above.

[infantrycak]

His graphs don't support either of his assertions.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

His graphs don't support either of his assertions.

Well.... they show you are less likely to pick up a first down if you cant gain a yard.

[76Texan]

Our pass/run ratio on first down this year in the first half is 138/113

The Pats is at 146/110

The Broncos is at 124/130

So basically, the Broncos are in deep shzzz.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger

This is a mid October 2012 piece from ADVANCEDNFLSTATS.COM that could explain why we can have a great RB, but still struggle to look like a winning team......or, for that matter, consistently win against higher competition, without having a passing game that is not reliable beyond 10 yards.

So in 2000 teams that ran the on 3rd down picked up the 1st down more than 60% of the time? I call BS on that data point.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by Fred

So in 2000 teams that ran the on 3rd down picked up the 1st down more than 60% of the time? I call BS on that data point.

On second thought this could be possible. If Kubiak was not calling plays that year, maybe the entire league only ran the ball 8 times on third and 10, and due to the susprise factor 5 of the runs went for a first down. But throw in about 50 Kubiak draw plays and I think the percentage drops.

[CloakNNNdagger]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

Our pass/run ratio on first down this year in the first half is 138/113

The Pats is at 146/110

The Broncos is at 124/130

So basically, the Broncos are in deep shzzz.

You have to go deeper into the numbers to explain why the patterns may not follow success.......like the efficiency of the QB. Like a QB that has a problem in general throwing completed passes past the 10 yd mark.

Brady 34 TDs 8 INTs
Peyton 37 TDs 11 INTs

Schaub 22 TDs 12 INTs

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger

Like a QB that has a problem in general throwing completed passes past the 10 yd mark.

Doc... you know this is not a problem Schaub has had throughout his career. Some are making it sound like he is David Carr or something.

Schaub's numbers beyond 10 yards are as good as anyone in the league & has been throughout his career.

The only reason Schaub hasn't had the winning numbers those guys have had is the same reason Andre hasn't.

[CloakNNNdagger]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

Doc... you know this is not a problem Schaub has had throughout his career. Some are making it sound like he is David Carr or something.

Schaub's numbers beyond 10 yards are as good as anyone in the league & has been throughout his career.

The only reason Schaub hasn't had the winning numbers those guys have had is the same reason Andre hasn't.

He is NOT David Carr. It is a problem that he's had this year.


I'm going to post this piece on 2012 QB performances that just came out by FOOTBALLOUTSIDERS. And pay special attention to DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) and DVOA (defensive-adjusted value over average). And look at where Brady and Peyton sit vs Schaub.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger

You have to go deeper into the numbers to explain why the patterns may not follow success.......like the efficiency of the QB. Like a QB that has a problem in general throwing completed passes past the 10 yd mark.

Brady 34 TDs 8 INTs
Peyton 37 TDs 11 INTs

Schaub 22 TDs 12 INTs

Doc, I was not trying to compare QBs; that was why I used team names.

According to Brian Burke, his theory is that running on first down is bad strategy.

I show that the Texans passed more on first down in the first half than the Broncos so that theory implies that the Texans followed the good strategy and not the other way around.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger

He is NOT David Carr. It is a problem that he's had this year.


I'm going to post this piece on 2012 QB performances that just came out by FOOTBALLOUTSIDERS. And pay special attention to DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) and DVOA (defensive-adjusted value over average). And look at where Brady and Peyton sit vs Schaub.

I think that chart says exactly what I've been saying about Matt Schaub for a few years now. They have him middle of the pack in total value & on a per play basis.

I'd like to see what Peyton's numbers looked like when the Edge was tearing it up in Indy. Partly because Matt hasn't been asked to do so much the last couple of years.

& I get that.

But every now & then, I'd like to see that 2009 Matt Schaub. That guy was ranked 6th by FO. Behind Brady, Rivers, Manning,Brees, & Favre.

Ahead of Romo, Roethlisberger, Rogers, Manning, & Warner.