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Old 12-19-2012   #1
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Default Vikings Key to Their Success

This is an in depth analysis (with lots of illustrative screen shots) of what the Vikings are doing to run over their opponents. This piece is definitely worth reading to see what we have looking at us this Sunday.

This part is especially interesting, and would even be worthwhile to the Texans coaching staff, who may have already picked up on it, since the Vikings O is not trying to disguise things or trick anyone..........just run over things with brute force..........an aspect of their game that should not be taken lightly, even if there is nothing to Ponder.




Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings thriving in old-school attack


Quote:
3) Run-heavy formations create numerical advantages.

To succeed in the NFL, offensive coordinators must be able to create favorable matchups through the clever deployment of personnel. While most offensive play callers utilize various shifts, motions, formations and personnel groupings to generate big plays in the passing game, the Vikings have been able to generate explosive plays on the ground through their brilliant usage of multiple run-heavy formations from various personnel packages.

As I studied the All-22 Coaches Film of the Vikings' past few games, I noticed that their offense often jumps into quasi-unbalanced formations and goal line-type sets to create numerical advantages at the point of attack. In theory, these formations and packages are designed to force opponents to play in a phone booth. Most defenses feature sleeker defensive linemen and linebackers, selected for their ability to get after the passer. The use of tight formations allows the Vikings' big, physical offensive line to overpower opponents over the course of the game. As a result, by the time the fourth quarter rolls around, Peterson routinely finds huge running lanes, often with the game hanging in the balance.
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Old 12-20-2012   #2
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Default Re: Vikings Key to Their Success

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AccuScore ‏@AccuScore

#NFL RT @ESPNStatsInfo: AccuScore has Adrian Peterson rushing for 268 yds in final 2 games. He needs 294 yds to break Dickerson's record

3:09 PM - 19 Dec 12 ·
Quote:
The smart folks at Accuscore project Peterson to gain 268 yards over the final two weeks, which would leave him 26 yards short of the record. There is a lot of optimism Peterson can break the record, in part because the Houston Texans' defense doesn't look as stout as it used to.

Vick Ballard of the Indianapolis Colts kept getting to the edge against the Texans last week on the way to 105 yards (on only 18 carries). The New England Patriots ran for 130 yards the week before. Houston is 13th in the NFL in yards-per-carry allowed.
link

The Vikings are going to put their all into maintaining their wild card position at the same time trying to get AP his record in the same manner that has gotten them there.........smash-mouth in-the-trenches run support.
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Old 12-20-2012   #3
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Default Re: Vikings Key to Their Success

I don't know how good the Vikings defense is, but if the Texans can score some points on it and get off with a lead it would obviously take the Vikings out of their game plan to concentrate on running Peterson.
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Old 12-20-2012   #4
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Default Re: Vikings Key to Their Success

My own analysis.

Houston Texans 2012 Run Defense
So far, we've only faced two top 10 rushers; Chris Johnson (7), Steven Ridley (9), luckily for us we have game data from games played in the last 3 games to help us see how our run defense has performed against such rushers. This should be more informative than our season stats as we all know this defense has “degraded” (maybe) since Cushing was lost for the season.

CJ2ypc has averaged 82 ypg, 4.3 ypc, & .35 Tds/game. Versus the Texans, he ran for 51 yards, 3.9 ypc & scored 0 Tds

Riddley averages 78.9 ypg, 4.4 ypgc, & .71 Tds/game. Versus the Texans, he ran for 72 yards, 4.0 ypc, & scored 1 Td

This isn't an exhaustive study & Adrian “All Day” Peterson is in a class all by himself. However, I feel that if Christian Ponder's play is closer to Jake Locker's, AD will have a below averge game the same way Chris Johnson did. If Ponder's play is closer to that of Tom Brady's, he'll have an average day at the office. Maybe better.

But for Minnesota to win this game, one of two things have to happen.
  1. Christian Ponder has to play like Tom Brady
    Not going to happen
  2. The Vikings defense is going to have to play their best game of the season.
    • They are currently the 20th rated defense in yards allowed.
    • They are 14th in points allowed (22)
    • I don't know how many turnovers they've forced but I recently heard Ponder speak as if it was a major part of their game plan
    • They are 23rd against the pass
    • They are 13th against the run


I know this game has a lot resting on it for both teams. I know in Houston, we're waiting for the other shoe to drop. I know it is dangerous to be too confident. But in this game, the Texans can play their average game. What we saw in Tennessee, New England, & Indy & will have a very good chance to win this game. Minnesota on the other hand has to play better than they have any other game this season to have a chance. They have to get out of their own way before they can think about being the better team come Sunday.

Now I bring up the New England game & I know some of you are saying, “We got our butts handed to us, what the heck is this guy talking about?” But New England is a very, very good precursor to this game. New Englan's 27th ranked defense is not as good as Minnesota's but they managed to prevent Houston from playing their average game.

Imo, that is the key to this game. If their defense can out play our offense, they'll probably win.
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Old 12-20-2012   #5
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Default Re: Vikings Key to Their Success

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Originally Posted by IDEXAN View Post
I don't know how good the Vikings defense is, but if the Texans can score some points on it and get off with a lead it would obviously take the Vikings out of their game plan to concentrate on running Peterson.
I feel the same way. Dickerson's record is a nice carrot, but this team, like all teams, want to be in the play-offs.

It will be a test of their "belief" in Peterson's home run ability. Being able to score in quick strikes, may allow them to stay with the run longer. But his 11 TDs on the year may temper their hopes.

I think it's going to be a good game.
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Old 12-20-2012   #6
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Default Re: Vikings Key to Their Success

With all honesty, being a Texas kid, I'd love for Peterson to break this record.

But how would you feel if you found out he used hgh or some other PED to help him heal? Nothing to boost his strength or speed. But helped him heal & get to playing shape.
Would you think any less of the season he is having? Would it change your view on PEDs or the league's policy?
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Old 12-20-2012   #7
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Default Re: Vikings Key to Their Success

I think the Vikings play into the Texans' hands. Run heavy offense? Maybe it will wear them down by the end of the game, that is, if they can continue to run on the Texans at the end of the game! I think if you allow the Texans to play man up coverages on the outside the single-gap ideas Wade likes have free run. The one thing that worries me is Ponder running for too much yardage. Well, that and Jared Allen having a flashback to when everyone thought he was the best pass rusher ever.
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Old 12-20-2012   #8
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Default Re: Vikings Key to Their Success

The Vikings key to beating the Texans is for the Mayan Apocalyse to happen.
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Old 12-21-2012   #9
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Default Re: Vikings Key to Their Success

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Originally Posted by TejasTom View Post
The Vikings key to beating the Texans is for the Mayan Apocalyse to happen.
I'm sure that's a big part of it.

I think you're suggesting, that they are not very good & you're right. Unlike the Colts, these guys aren't going to help us, other than running the ball & eating the clock. They aren't mistake prone, they don't turn the ball over. They're -6, but compared to the Colts -17 that's practically nil.

We've got to make sure he earns his yards, & after watching Danieal Manning for the last three weeks, that may be a tall order.

Bad coaches will alter their game plan if they are down "too many points" regardless of how much time is left on the clock. Down 21 points after the 1st qtr? Not a big deal. Scoring 21 points in 3 qtrs is doable. Running the ball keeps their offense off the field, keeps them from scoring, & keeps your defense fresh, which is conducive to getting stopping the opposing offense.

Down 21 points with 20 minutes left in the game? Time to put the running game on the shelf..... unless you have Adrian Peterson who can score from anywhere at any second, just like a passing game.
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Old 12-21-2012   #10
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Default Re: Vikings Key to Their Success

According to PFF, the Vikings operate out of the 2-back set some 40% of the time (and more than 45% the last 3 games) with FB Jerome Felton leading the way for Peterson.

"Felton said he had seen a stat that indicated the Vikings gain better than 7 yards per rush with a fullback and 3-plus yards out of one-back sets."

I really hope we see Barrett Ruud and Brooks Reed some at the ILB position.
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Old 12-21-2012   #11
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Default Re: Vikings Key to Their Success

Their Give/Take number is -3 according to ESPN, but that being said, the difference is not any indication of anything other than they are giving close to what they are getting. They are middle of the pack from a Giveaway perspective, and slightly below average on the takeaways.

You can have a team like Arizona that is at +3 and fourth in the NFL at takeaways at 32, but they cough up the ball a lot as well. The Vikings hang in the middle in both.

And no disrespect intended for Peterson, who is having an amazing season, but as was pointed out, he is their deep ball threat. Looking at the last 8 games where he has gone into beast mode, he has at least 8 carries that were greater than 50 yards.

If you take away his longest run from each of the last 8 games, his rushing total is reduced by 464 yards and his YPC goes from 7.46 to 5.05. In other words, 36% of his total yards - ALMOST 500 - over the last 8 games have come on 8 plays.

When you consider that over this 8 game stretch, he is averaging 21 carries per game, and along with the 36% stat from above, they are really not a "ground and pound attack" like they claim to be.

In fact, in the two games with his highest carries of 27 and 31, he averaged considerably less than the 7.46 per carry that he had during this overall span.

Again, this isn't meant to be a disrespect and he is clearly a threat to go all the way on any given play. But it is interesting to look at the data without the big plays and you can see why the Vikings are 4-4 during this amazing personal 8-game run for Peterson. They are averaging less than 22 points a game with AD going all kinds of crazy.

Survive an AD long run, or avoid it alltogether, and the Texans will be in control of this game without issue.
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Old 12-21-2012   #12
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Default Re: Vikings Key to Their Success

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Originally Posted by sandman View Post
Their Give/Take number is -3 according to ESPN, but that being said, the difference is not any indication of anything other than they are giving close to what they are getting. They are middle of the pack from a Giveaway perspective, and slightly below average on the takeaways.

You can have a team like Arizona that is at +3 and fourth in the NFL at takeaways at 32, but they cough up the ball a lot as well. The Vikings hang in the middle in both.

And no disrespect intended for Peterson, who is having an amazing season, but as was pointed out, he is their deep ball threat. Looking at the last 8 games where he has gone into beast mode, he has at least 8 carries that were greater than 50 yards.

If you take away his longest run from each of the last 8 games, his rushing total is reduced by 464 yards and his YPC goes from 7.46 to 5.05. In other words, 36% of his total yards - ALMOST 500 - over the last 8 games have come on 8 plays.

When you consider that over this 8 game stretch, he is averaging 21 carries per game, and along with the 36% stat from above, they are really not a "ground and pound attack" like they claim to be.

In fact, in the two games with his highest carries of 27 and 31, he averaged considerably less than the 7.46 per carry that he had during this overall span.

Again, this isn't meant to be a disrespect and he is clearly a threat to go all the way on any given play. But it is interesting to look at the data without the big plays and you can see why the Vikings are 4-4 during this amazing personal 8-game run for Peterson. They are averaging less than 22 points a game with AD going all kinds of crazy.

Survive an AD long run, or avoid it alltogether, and the Texans will be in control of this game without issue.
I hope we can minimize them to maybe 3 runs between 20 and 30 yards.

I can't recall the actual number, but I don't think we have given up many big run plays this year.

Let's hope the guys keep it up.
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Old 12-21-2012   #13
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Default Re: Vikings Key to Their Success

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I hope we can minimize them to maybe 3 runs between 20 and 30 yards.

I can't recall the actual number, but I don't think we have given up many big run plays this year.

Let's hope the guys keep it up.
Longest rushing play they have given up this year is 28 yards.

I'd be happy keeping AD to several "shorter" long runs and really make him earn the yards.

The only time he has done that all year was the win against the Bears where he carried it 31 times at 5 yards a carry.
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Old 12-21-2012   #14
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Default Re: Vikings Key to Their Success

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Originally Posted by sandman View Post
Longest rushing play they have given up this year is 28 yards.

I'd be happy keeping AD to several "shorter" long runs and really make him earn the yards.

The only time he has done that all year was the win against the Bears where he carried it 31 times at 5 yards a carry.
We can live with 31 carries and 155 yards.
But I doubt Peterson will get that many carries against us due to our offense keeping him off the field.

Anything can happen on any given Sunday, but I like our "percentage", especially with Reliant rocking.
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Old 12-21-2012   #15
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Default Re: Vikings Key to Their Success

Vikings just need to do what everyone else does..show up and play. If they do that then they should at least have a shot going into the 4th quarter.

Make a plays when they need to at crucial moments would be the biggest key to success. I don't see us blowing this team away, so I think it's just going to come down to converting at key times.
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Old 12-22-2012   #16
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Default Re: Vikings Key to Their Success

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
According to PFF, the Vikings operate out of the 2-back set some 40% of the time (and more than 45% the last 3 games) with FB Jerome Felton leading the way for Peterson.

"Felton said he had seen a stat that indicated the Vikings gain better than 7 yards per rush with a fullback and 3-plus yards out of one-back sets."

I really hope we see Barrett Ruud and Brooks Reed some at the ILB position.
I want to see dobbins and reed in the middle a lot.
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Old 12-22-2012   #17
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Default Re: Vikings Key to Their Success

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I want to see dobbins and reed in the middle a lot.
If the Vikings continue to use a lot of 22 and 13 personnel, we may very well be in a 53 (5 LBs).

In that case, yeah, we should see a bunch of LBs on the field.

It will be good to give JJo some rest if he needs it, since there will be just one receiver on the field.
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Old 12-22-2012   #18
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Default Re: Vikings Key to Their Success

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If the Vikings continue to use a lot of 22 and 13 personnel, we may very well be in a 53 (5 LBs).

In that case, yeah, we should see a bunch of LBs on the field.

It will be good to give JJo some rest if he needs it, since there will be just one receiver on the field.
The Vikings TE Rudolf will be in there virtually every play, and has been one of the Vikings most productive receivers with over 9 ydspc and 8 TDS. He's 6'6" and has been compared to Gronkowsky. Even though he's usually out there with AP, he's not much of a blocker, so someone with some running ability (secondary) better be focused on him for that occasional but potentially lethal Ponder connection. They are also just now seeing some threat from their 2nd TE Carlson. I think if we go 53 too often we will see TD too often.
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Old 12-22-2012   #19
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Default Re: Vikings Key to Their Success

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The Vikings TE Rudolf will be in there virtually every play, and has been one of the Vikings most productive receivers with over 9 ydspc and 8 TDS. He's 6'6" and has been compared to Gronkowsky. Even though he's usually out there with AP, he's not much of a blocker, so someone with some running ability (secondary) better be focused on him for that occasional but potentially lethal Ponder connection. They are also just now seeing some threat from their 2nd TE Carlson. I think if we go 53 too often we will see TD too often.
Rudolph is not a fast guy, like 4:80 something.
Either Reed or Rudd will do just fine against him, or we can drop Barwin back on a zone blitz.
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Old 12-22-2012   #20
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Default Re: Vikings Key to Their Success

Quote:
Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
Rudolph is not a fast guy, like 4:80 something.
Either Reed or Rudd will do just fine against him, or we can drop Barwin back on a zone blitz.
He may not be fast (~1 sec slower than Gronkowsky), but he has averaged 9 yds per catch. Rudd not faster than Rudolph. Reed is ~1 sec faster, but coming off the groin injury, will likely be at least slightly slowed down and of slower reflex..........Rudolph will be knowing what route he will be taking, Rudd and Reed won't. I think it will be a big mistake if the Texans rely heavily on their LBs to cover the Vikings' TEs. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

As an FYI, Rudolph was ranked by most going into the Draft as #1 TE. When he ran that 4.75 on his Pro Day, he was just medically released coming off a severe hamstring tear that required major surgery due to the fact that one of the major hamstring tendons was ripped right off of the bone. He was having problems with it early in the 2010 college season, and after 6 games into that season his season was finally over. He has said that before those injuries, he had been clocked close to 4.60. For whatever his 40s were, he has shown decent explosion and needs not to be taken lightly by the Texans.

Last edited by CloakNNNdagger; 12-22-2012 at 05:21 PM.
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