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Old 12-17-2012   #41
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Default Re: Possible that we held back on NE?

No.

I am not a tin foil hat person. But I do think that the Texans may have engaged in some operation shut down when they got in an early, stupid hole, saw the writing on the wall for the 3rd game on the road, against the Patriots in a game where the other team needed it more.

Why expend a ton of energy, risking Schaub injury in a game where there is little chance you can win it.

Check out the win probability numbers for that game from pretty early on.

I started thinking this after the Monday presser with this particular answer about Arian Foster's touches that game:

Quote:
(on RB Arian Foster being underworked and why he didn’t get the ball more) “Yeah, we were throwing it trying to get back in the game so it wouldn’t have mattered who was back there. There weren’t a lot of carries to go around for what we were trying to do. Obviously I reached a point, too, where I wanted to take another look at (RB) Ben (Tate) and see how he was performing after his second week back, which I thought was pretty good. It’s a combination of those things. (RB) Arian (Foster) is fine. If we’re playing in the type of game we want to play in, I think he carries the ball last night 25, 28 times, but it just didn’t happen that way.”
Want to take a look at a guy? That sounds like preseason behavior. Testing stuff out.

In other words, I think the way that the Texans would have managed this game would have been a bit different, especially later in the game had this been the win this game or go home game. But I don't think the Texans came into this game with the intent to sandbag.
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Old 12-17-2012   #42
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Default Re: Possible that we held back on NE?

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Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
No.

I am not a tin foil hat person. But I do think that the Texans may have engaged in some operation shut down when they got in an early, stupid hole, saw the writing on the wall for the 3rd game on the road, against the Patriots in a game where the other team needed it more.

Why expend a ton of energy, risking Schaub injury in a game where there is little chance you can win it.

Check out the win probability numbers for that game from pretty early on.

I started thinking this after the Monday presser with this particular answer about Arian Foster's touches that game:



Want to take a look at a guy? That sounds like preseason behavior. Testing stuff out.

In other words, I think the way that the Texans would have managed this game would have been a bit different, especially later in the game had this been the win this game or go home game. But I don't think the Texans came into this game with the intent to sandbag.
The difference in the Texans and the Patriots when behind are stark if you are on point. It's a mentality. When down 31-3 (last night) the Pats didn't go into Barney the Purple Dinosaur mode and start rationalizing.
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Old 12-17-2012   #43
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Default Re: Possible that we held back on NE?

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Originally Posted by Vinny View Post
The difference in the Texans and the Patriots when behind are stark. It's a mentality. When down 31-3 (last night) the Pats didn't go into Barney the Purple Dinosaur mode.
Maybe.

And you what? Bill Belichick wouldn't be seen as Mr Super Genius if when Brady was chucking the ball downfield in the Texans' win late and one of those multiple solid hits Watt put on him, knocked Brady's shoulder out or gave him a concussion or knee or something bad. It could have easily happened given how many QBs the Texans have taken out this year.

And it could have happened last night too to the Patriots given the defense they were facing. But the Patriots needed that win for home field because they lost dumb games early in the year.

As it is, Patriots fans were hating life when Welker got his ACL against the Texans late a few years ago.

You can call it Barney the Dinosaur all you want, but the Texans are playing with a hodge podge baby offensive line that would kill most quarterbacks/seasons. So that has to be in the analysis of play calling/game managing. The last time previous to last night's game a team came back on a team with that big a lead and still lost was the Texans against the Titans a few years ago at Reliant.

But the Texans are a different team with a different set of circumstances. And a transitioning offensive line. They have too much to lose playing aaah WTH ball. If Kubiak loses Schaub again (something that has happened multiple seasons), we are screwed.

I talk about this some in my most recent blog post about risk/reward and playcalling: Texans win again. You have permission to be happy.
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Old 12-17-2012   #44
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Default Re: Possible that we held back on NE?

And in the end, the Pats got a morale victory.

Congrats to Brady and Belichick for saving grace and giving the Pats fans hope.
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Old 12-17-2012   #45
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Default Re: Possible that we held back on NE?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny View Post
The difference in the Texans and the Patriots when behind are stark if you are on point. It's a mentality. When down 31-3 (last night) the Pats didn't go into Barney the Purple Dinosaur mode and start rationalizing.

This^^^^^^^^^

By the end of the 1st Q, the Texans were given an 11% chance of coming back and taking the game........AdvancedNFLStats seems to answer the question as to the Texans' "clutch" ability.....and it ain't pretty.
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Old 12-17-2012   #46
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Default Re: Possible that we held back on NE?

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Originally Posted by Playoffs View Post
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Question is: can the Texans beat New England (if that is who they face?) in the AFC Championship game?
They'll have to play the game of their lives. Coaches on both sides of the ball, too.

49ers dominated, but the Pats still had a chance. I'd like to have another shot at them.
Assuming we host the AFC Championship game at Reliant, I'd much rather face the Broncos than the Pats (and no, there's nothing about the Pats game that even made me think they might be holding back).

To be brutally honest, I don't like our chances - even at home - if we have to play New England again. That's not to say we couldn't win, but I'm hoping we won't have to find out.

In spite of that, I do believe that while it resulted in an embarrassing blow-out loss on national TV, the fact that we've played them once will give us a better shot at beating them if that is the way things go.

And while I absolutely don't think it was planned this way, I do think there's a slight chance that we could be underestimated by the Pats. I believe this for the same reason I wondered whether the Patriots response to beating us might not have something to do with the 31-3 deficit they got themselves into. Ironically, after the game, the Patriots spent so much time pointing out that as opposed to the Texans, they approach all games as just another game, it may have taken away focus and or preparation from the Niners game, and by the time they woke up, it was too late. They may be experienced in important late season and playoff games, but they are not infallible.
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Old 12-17-2012   #47
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Default Re: Possible that we held back on NE?

I love how people are saying absolutely not when Kubiak's whole M.O. is to not run up the score on fools.
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Old 12-17-2012   #48
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Default Re: Possible that we held back on NE?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger View Post
This^^^^^^^^^

By the end of the 1st Q, the Texans were given an 11% chance of coming back and taking the game........AdvancedNFLStats seems to answer the question as to the Texans' "clutch" ability.....and it ain't pretty.
Stats are what we make of it.
ANFLS charts the percentage within a game.
when all 3 phases aren't working, the numbers went down the chute.
Numbers can be used to "help" predict the long term.
They cannot be used to predict short term with much accuracy.

A question for you.
Will you be kind enough to see what they were saying during the first half of the Niners Pats game?
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Old 12-17-2012   #49
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Default Re: Possible that we held back on NE?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger View Post
This^^^^^^^^^

By the end of the 1st Q, the Texans were given an 11% chance of coming back and taking the game........AdvancedNFLStats seems to answer the question as to the Texans' "clutch" ability.....and it ain't pretty.
Eh. Read my blog post. It is a good thing for most teams that their entire season isn't defined by one or two games. The Colts their Super Bowl year needed to beat a bad Texans team to get a bye. The Texans were the last team to beat them that year using David Carr, Ron Dayne, duct tape and chewing gum.
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Last edited by Texans_Chick; 12-17-2012 at 02:01 PM.
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Old 12-17-2012   #50
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Default Re: Possible that we held back on NE?

Quote:
Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
Stats are what we make of it.
ANFLS charts the percentage within a game.
when all 3 phases aren't working, the numbers went down the chute.
Numbers can be used to "help" predict the long term.
They cannot be used to predict short term with much accuracy.

A question for you.
Will you be kind enough to see what they were saying during the first half of the Niners Pats game?
I'm not really understanding what you're asking, but they were always mentioning both that the Niners had lost opportunities despite their lead....but you don't ever rule out a Pats comeback??????
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Old 12-17-2012   #51
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Default Re: Possible that we held back on NE?

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Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
Maybe.

And you what? Bill Belichick wouldn't be seen as Mr Super Genius if when Brady....
D'oh..... stop right there. We don't have Brady, so this conversation is pointless. There are only so many elite QBs in the league & we don't have one of them. So what Bellichick & Brady, & their mentality is compared to ours is not even relevant. (not to mention they were getting blown out at home)

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Originally Posted by ChampionTexan View Post
I do think there's a slight chance that we could be underestimated by the Pats.
Nope, forget that. Bellichick will have them ready, he's a HOF coach, been there done that. He knows better... uh..

Other than last night I mean. Every other game, he'll have his team ready. He's a HOF, 3x Super Bowl winning...

don't count the Arizona, Seattle, & Denver games either.

Other than those 4 games, Bellichick will have the ... forget it. I'm exhausted trying to make excuses for him.
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Old 12-17-2012   #52
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Default Re: Possible that we held back on NE?

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Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
Eh. Read my blog post. It is a good thing for most teams that their entire season isn't defined by one or two games. The Colts their Super Bowl year needed to beat a bad Texans team to get a bye. The Texans were the last team to beat them that year using David Carr, Ron Dayne, duck tape and chewing gum.
Exactly. I remember when we got throttled by baltimore last year. & going into the playoff game everyone thought we didn't have a chance in large part b/c of what happened earlier that season but also b/c of Schaub's absence. & through all of that, we still managed to not only compete but had a chance to win. The major play that put us in a bad spot (JJ's muffed punt) wasn't even on the radar as to why we were going to lose.

Any given Sunday folks.
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Old 12-17-2012   #53
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Default Re: Possible that we held back on NE?

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Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post
D'oh..... stop right there. We don't have Brady, so this conversation is pointless. There are only so many elite QBs in the league & we don't have one of them. So what Bellichick & Brady, & their mentality is compared to ours is not even relevant. (not to mention they were getting blown out at home)



Nope, forget that. Bellichick will have them ready, he's a HOF coach, been there done that. He knows better... uh..

Other than last night I mean. Every other game, he'll have his team ready. He's a HOF, 3x Super Bowl winning...

don't count the Arizona, Seattle, & Denver games either.

Other than those 4 games, Bellichick will have the ... forget it. I'm exhausted trying to make excuses for him.
And don't forget that the last time the Pats had a playoff rematch with a team they'd blown out in the regular season, they lost (at home) 28-21 to a Jets team that they'd beaten 45-3 in week 13 of the regular season.
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Old 12-17-2012   #54
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Default Re: Possible that we held back on NE?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr teX View Post
Exactly. I remember when we got throttled by baltimore last year. & going into the playoff game everyone thought we didn't have a chance in large part b/c of what happened earlier that season but also b/c of Schaub's absence. & through all of that, we still managed to not only compete but had a chance to win. The major play that put us in a bad spot (JJ's muffed punt) wasn't even on the radar as to why we were going to lose.

Any given Sunday folks.
And it isn't just an any given Sunday thing too. Each game is its own thing. And each game has a ton of choices with risk and reward. And each team evolves over the course of a season while they learn/get injured. It is truly hard to manage risk/still win/avoid injuries. Because by the end of the season, a lot of times the winning team is the team that didn't get injured in the wrong spots.
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Old 12-17-2012   #55
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Default Re: Possible that we held back on NE?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger View Post
I'm not really understanding what you're asking, but they were always mentioning both that the Niners had lost opportunities despite their lead....but you don't ever rule out a Pats comeback??????
If you look at the chart, there was a long period of time when it showed the Pats had close to zero chance of winning the game.

The same type of chart that you were looking at for the Pats-Texans game.

It only records the numbers and projects a probability.

While the chart showed that the Texans had only an 11% chance, it also showed that the Pats had even a lower chance to win the game.
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Old 12-17-2012   #56
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Default Re: Possible that we held back on NE?

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Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post
D'oh..... stop right there. We don't have Brady, so this conversation is pointless. There are only so many elite QBs in the league & we don't have one of them. So what Bellichick & Brady, & their mentality is compared to ours is not even relevant. (not to mention they were getting blown out at home)



Nope, forget that. Bellichick will have them ready, he's a HOF coach, been there done that. He knows better... uh..

Other than last night I mean. Every other game, he'll have his team ready. He's a HOF, 3x Super Bowl winning...

don't count the Arizona, Seattle, & Denver games either.

Other than those 4 games, Bellichick will have the ... forget it. I'm exhausted trying to make excuses for him.
I see what you did there , LOl
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Old 12-17-2012   #57
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Default Re: Possible that we held back on NE?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post
D'oh..... stop right there. We don't have Brady, so this conversation is pointless. There are only so many elite QBs in the league & we don't have one of them. So what Bellichick & Brady, & their mentality is compared to ours is not even relevant. (not to mention they were getting blown out at home)



Nope, forget that. Bellichick will have them ready, he's a HOF coach, been there done that. He knows better... uh..

Other than last night I mean. Every other game, he'll have his team ready. He's a HOF, 3x Super Bowl winning...

don't count the Arizona, Seattle, & Denver games either.

Other than those 4 games, Bellichick will have the ... forget it. I'm exhausted trying to make excuses for him.
The Texans have come back from deficits before. Quickly. They have an explosive offense when they open it up, elite QB or no.

And even when you have a very good team, it doesn't mean you are going to win the whole thing, see e.g. Patriots of recent years with a top QB and coach.

You can try to manage injury risk the best you can with the personnel you have and the game and season situation you are in. There's no easy calls, but it looks good when your players execute, not so good when they don't.

But Brady could have been hurt in recent games chucking the ball either with a big lead or trying to come back from a big deficit. I don't care how elite you are, if you are jacked hard after the throw, which happened multiple times in the last couple of weeks, you can get messed up.
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Old 12-17-2012   #58
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Default Re: Possible that we held back on NE?

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And each team evolves over the course of a season while they learn/get injured.
That's what I love about the NFL. It's not just the teams that evolve, it's the players as well.

We've watched a couple of stars being born..... Andre, we saw him come into his own & become the player that he is today. We saw Demeco shoot up like a meteor, Brian Cushing, Arian Foster, Duane Brown..... & Jj Watt.

I remember all offseason, I was thinking we're in trouble if Reed & Watt don't follow up with a great sophomore season. I was worried about Barwin as well, because he came off season ending injury the year before.

What happened with Reed & Barwin could just as easily happened to Watt, but it didn't. He continues to get better every week.

& he's wearing a Texans Jersey, how cool is that?
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Old 12-17-2012   #59
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Default Re: Possible that we held back on NE?

for our sake i hope we did LOL but why would we if we had won in NE and then beat INdy we would have locked #1 seed right now and the..... Minny and @ indy game would mean nothing

that would have been like a 5 week break LOL
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Old 12-17-2012   #60
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Default Re: Possible that we held back on NE?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
The Texans have come back from deficits before. Quickly. They have an explosive offense when they open it up, elite QB or no.

And even when you have a very good team, it doesn't mean you are going to win the whole thing, see e.g. Patriots of recent years with a top QB and coach.
That's totally irrelevant to the conversation at hand. Right now, we're talking about how great the Patriots are. We'll have no good talk about the Texans here.

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