Dutch's 2013 Texans Offseason Projections and Info

[Corrosion]

Thanks Dutch .... didnt see this until now. Havent been on here all that much the past few days ....


Good idea and great presentation .....

[aussie_texan]

amazing work as usual

[Wolf6151]

DR, you have proven to me that I'd be a terrible GM, all that number crunching gives me a headache. I think I'm pretty good as far as the talent evaluation goes but all the contract and dollar figures makes me reach for the Tylenol.

Well done Sir....

[beerlover]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

If we have a 1st round pick, he will likely cost about 1-2 million dollars in 2013. That's the most significant cost, and quite honestly, I think it would be wise to trade out of the 1st to save some cap money, move to the top of the 2nd and spend a lot of low picks pushing 4/5 rounders up to 2nds or 3rds. We wasted a lot of dead money on guys like Keo, McManis and others who were late picks, and I'd rather not have so many late picks that will just be cut due to numbers.

Excellent work Dutch

On top of saving 16 million in dead cap money off the books next season trading down or out of 1st is a distinct possibility. Another option could be trading Texan 2013 1st for a lesser teams 1st in a following season 2014 or 2015 & improving a current draft slot to a higher pick

[76Texan]

Good job, Dutch

[mussop]

GREAT JOB! The only thing I disagree with is, I don't see Smith going anywhere next year. A case could be made that he is the second best 5tech in the NFL behind you know who!

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by mussop

GREAT JOB! The only thing I disagree with is, I don't see Smith going anywhere next year. A case could be made that he is the second best 5tech in the NFL behind you know who!

He never plays the 5.

However, after leaving Arizona directly after their Super Bowl appearance, I would think he'd like to stay & see this thing through.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

He never plays the 5.

However, after leaving Arizona directly after their Super Bowl appearance, I would think he'd like to stay & see this thing through.

You guys talking about Antoine remaining after his contracted year of 2013 @ $6m?

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by badboy

You guys talking about Antoine remaining after his contracted year of 2013 @ $6m?

I think we are speculating that Antonio will be asked to restructure or take a pay cut.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

I think we are speculating that Antonio will be asked to restructure or take a pay cut.

Cool and I thing he would restructure, especially if he could get $3-4m in his hands quicker.

[Dutchrudder]

Originally Posted by beerlover

Excellent work Dutch

On top of saving 16 million in dead cap money off the books next season trading down or out of 1st is a distinct possibility. Another option could be trading Texan 2013 1st for a lesser teams 1st in a following season 2014 or 2015 & improving a current draft slot to a higher pick

The thought had crossed my mind, but I don't see it happening unless we win the Super Bowl. Kind of hard to justify avoiding a 1st round pick when you have issues that kept the team from going the distance. I could definitely see us doing that with mid-round picks, say trading our 4th and 6th for a 2014 late 2nd or early 3rd. That works fine IMO, anything that helps us avoid 11 draft picks or more coming in this season. I think we don't need more than 8 at most to avoid cap liability.

Originally Posted by mussop

GREAT JOB! The only thing I disagree with is, I don't see Smith going anywhere next year. A case could be made that he is the second best 5tech in the NFL behind you know who!

Thanks! Per Antonio, like I said in a follow up post, he could restructure, which would keep him on the team. My biggest problem with Antonio is the fact that he has Watt on the other side of him, and he's not as productive of a pass rusher as I would expect of someone in that situation. He's also just average at stopping the run. I don't think there has been a moment in his time with the Texans where I would have said he was worth 9.8 million a year, or much less at 6. Same argument could be made against Walter, he's overpaid with a top 5 WR on the other side of him, he's clearly not quick enough or can't make the cuts to create separation to warrant him being the #2. Bottom line, I think we could do better while spending less.

As far as mocks go for the mock-heads around here, consider finding a new 3-4 DE this draft to replace Smith. His cap savings is huge and drafting another DE could help in the restructure negotiations. Just something to think about.

[mussop]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

He never plays the 5.

However, after leaving Arizona directly after their Super Bowl appearance, I would think he'd like to stay & see this thing through.

What you talkin about Willis?

[mussop]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

The thought had crossed my mind, but I don't see it happening unless we win the Super Bowl. Kind of hard to justify avoiding a 1st round pick when you have issues that kept the team from going the distance. I could definitely see us doing that with mid-round picks, say trading our 4th and 6th for a 2014 late 2nd or early 3rd. That works fine IMO, anything that helps us avoid 11 draft picks or more coming in this season. I think we don't need more than 8 at most to avoid cap liability.



Thanks! Per Antonio, like I said in a follow up post, he could restructure, which would keep him on the team. My biggest problem with Antonio is the fact that he has Watt on the other side of him, and he's not as productive of a pass rusher as I would expect of someone in that situation. He's also just average at stopping the run. I don't think there has been a moment in his time with the Texans where I would have said he was worth 9.8 million a year, or much less at 6. Same argument could be made against Walter, he's overpaid with a top 5 WR on the other side of him, he's clearly not quick enough or can't make the cuts to create separation to warrant him being the #2. Bottom line, I think we could do better while spending less.

As far as mocks go for the mock-heads around here, consider finding a new 3-4 DE this draft to replace Smith. His cap savings is huge and drafting another DE could help in the restructure negotiations. Just something to think about.

I could be wrong but I don't think there is another 3/4 DE with more sacks right now than A Smith. And sorry I didn't finish reading entire thread before posting. Yes I believe we will work something out with Smith this offseason. He is a good fit here in more ways than one.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by mussop

What you talkin about Willis?

Whether we're playing three down linemen or 4, Antonio plays inside the tackle. He's a 3 tech with the weak-side OLB playing the 5.

Originally Posted by mussop

I could be wrong but I don't think there is another 3/4 DE with more sacks right now than A Smith. And sorry I didn't finish reading entire thread before posting. Yes I believe we will work something out with Smith this offseason. He is a good fit here in more ways than one.

I agree. He's been as productive as you'd think a 3-4 DE would be in the passing game. But Dutch is talking about his run defense.

Personally, I think he's been getting it done moreso this year than in the past. I think he's doing a fine job just don't like the money.

[mussop]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

Whether we're playing three down linemen or 4, Antonio plays inside the tackle. He's a 3 tech with the weak-side OLB playing the 5.

I don't think you are grasping the concept of the 3/4.

Originally Posted by Fiddler

I agree. He's been as productive as you'd think a 3-4 DE would be in the passing game. But Dutch is talking about his run defense.

I was responding to this which I highlighted.

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

My biggest problem with Antonio is the fact that he has Watt on the other side of him, and he's not as productive of a pass rusher as I would expect of someone in that situation.

Yes 9 million is out of the question. Like I said, I think he is important enough to this team in more ways than just as a player and so they will get things worked out with him that will be beneficial to both sides.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by mussop

I don't think you are grasping the concept of the 3/4.

Please explain

[76Texan]

Just like any team in the NFL, we're a multi-front team (though we have more different fronts than most.)

Our favorite front is the WILL WINK (5-man front).
It looks quite similar to the 4-man under (with a LB on the LOS).

In this front, the NT shades to the strong side as a 1-tech
The weak-side DE lines up outside the weak-side guard as a 3-tech (Antonio Smith).
The weak-side OLB lines up about 2 yard outside the weak-side tackle as a 7-tech.

The strong-side DE lines up on the outside eye of the strong side tackle to head-up (4 or 5-tech) (Watt).
The strong side OLB lines up usually outside the TE as a 9-tech.

The two OLBs could line up wider than that, for different reasons (depending on the offensive personnel, or certain specific D-call).

It really is very simlar to the 4-man under front, except that Watt is head-up on the tackle more often than outside the tackle.

And we have two guys with hands off the ground (the 2 OLBs) whereas the 4-man under has the weak-side DE with hand on the ground.

The NT, the UT (under tackle), and the SAM (strong side OLB) are the same on either front.

[badboy]

My defense of preference is "Go Get 'em".

[Specnatz]

Originally Posted by badboy

Can anyone tell me why Luis Nix is not mocked anywhere? If you have watched Irish Chocolate you have be impressed to at least mock him. I am keeping him in second for now as no one else has him even that high.

Originally Posted by aussie_texan

yeah i found this very strange as well. walter football doesn't have him in any mocks and only added him to his list of prospects a week or so ago.
cbssports from memory doesn't even have him in the prospects list.

i think he ends up going in the first, hopefully to us. once sport commentators put on his game tape and watch his combine and pro day he will shoot up mock draft boards. think Kendall Reyes from Connecticut last year that start the year as a 5th round pick ended up going in the 2nd.

Originally Posted by steelbtexan

Dont have a link, but Nix said he was returning to school.

Early on Nix did say he was not even thinking about the draft and planned on returning to school, but all of this is predicated on how he was graded before his rise in value. Also, he is a Jr so a lot of folks did not have them on his draft boards because most ND players do not turn pro early. Tuck, Clausen, Autry Denson (don't ask, no one knows why), can not think of anyone else. I know there has been less than 10 to leave school early and enter the draft.

Walter Football is one of the better out there and they usually add a guy when there is a good chance of them leaving school early.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

The thought had crossed my mind, but I don't see it happening unless we win the Super Bowl. Kind of hard to justify avoiding a 1st round pick when you have issues that kept the team from going the distance. I could definitely see us doing that with mid-round picks, say trading our 4th and 6th for a 2014 late 2nd or early 3rd. That works fine IMO, anything that helps us avoid 11 draft picks or more coming in this season. I think we don't need more than 8 at most to avoid cap liability.



Thanks! Per Antonio, like I said in a follow up post, he could restructure, which would keep him on the team. My biggest problem with Antonio is the fact that he has Watt on the other side of him, and he's not as productive of a pass rusher as I would expect of someone in that situation. He's also just average at stopping the run. I don't think there has been a moment in his time with the Texans where I would have said he was worth 9.8 million a year, or much less at 6. Same argument could be made against Walter, he's overpaid with a top 5 WR on the other side of him, he's clearly not quick enough or can't make the cuts to create separation to warrant him being the #2. Bottom line, I think we could do better while spending less.

As far as mocks go for the mock-heads around here, consider finding a new 3-4 DE this draft to replace Smith. His cap savings is huge and drafting another DE could help in the restructure negotiations. Just something to think about.

I think Crick will help Smith to consider restructuring and then bringing in my mock 6th Lewis-Moore a motor from Notre Dame would also make his ears perk up. No need to spend a higher pick if you truly want Smith here. AGain, I am really looking to off season after a tremendous season, decent draft picks and some wiggle room under cap as is and more as you suggest with some manuevering.