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Old 10-24-2012   #1
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Default Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

Football Ousiders: Broncos are the best in the AFC
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Apparently, team records are overrated. Just ask FootballOutsiders.com.
The well-known site released their team efficiency ratings this week and the Denver Broncos were listed as the top team in the AFC, fifth-overall in the NFL.
Surprisingly, the Broncos beat out the 5-1 Houston Texans and 5-2 Baltimore Ravens for top honors in the AFC. Perhaps even more intriguing is that another team, the New England Patriots, also ranked ahead of both the Texans and the Ravens...
Why .500 Broncos are AFC's best--ESPN Insider
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If there's a favorite team to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this season, it probably would be the Houston Texans. They have the best record in the conference at 6-1, they just waxed the next-best team (Baltimore) 43-13, and their only loss came at the hands of an NFC squad (Green Bay). Is there any reason to think they won't be hoisting the Lamar Hunt Trophy in January? Actually, yes.

The Texans are not the highest-ranked AFC team in Football Outsiders' latest rankings. That honor goes to the Denver Broncos, perhaps the league's most underrated team...
Football Outsiders--Week 7 DVOA Ratings -- Texans 7th Best Team in NFL
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Old 10-24-2012   #2
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

This is based on their formulas that are pretty accurate but...the Texans are low for really only 1 reason. They are 31st in their special teams ranking. If they were just 16th they would be a top 2-3 team in their rankings. Special teams hasn't cost the Texans a game yet but sure could have.

Imagine how good the Texans would be if they got anything positive from the return game or coverage units.
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Old 10-24-2012   #3
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Originally Posted by Exascor View Post
This is based on their formulas that are pretty accurate but...the Texans are low for really only 1 reason. They are 31st in their special teams ranking. If they were just 16th they would be a top 2-3 team in their rankings. Special teams hasn't cost the Texans a game yet but sure could have.

Imagine how good the Texans would be if they got anything positive from the return game or coverage units.
And it didn't get any better last week. The Ravens - averaged - 36 yards per kickoff return. They had more yardage returning kicks than total offense.

Just horrible.
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Old 10-24-2012   #4
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

Well I only have one stat for these stat geeks. We beat the team they're saying is better than us in their stadium. Sometimes these guys just outsmart themselves. It also took a miraculous comeback for them to win their last game. Don't get me wrong I think Denver will be an improved team as the season goes on, but they aren't there yet.

Last edited by Texn4life; 10-24-2012 at 11:41 AM.
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Old 10-24-2012   #5
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Originally Posted by Exascor View Post
This is based on their formulas that are pretty accurate but...the Texans are low for really only 1 reason. They are 31st in their special teams ranking. If they were just 16th they would be a top 2-3 team in their rankings. Special teams hasn't cost the Texans a game yet but sure could have.

Imagine how good the Texans would be if they got anything positive from the return game or coverage units.
It's going to cost us a game or two this season. There has to be an expendable player or two who we can release to sign a guy who only kicks on kickoffs. The Cowboys did it a few years ago. For most teams, it would be a waste of a roster spot. But we're that bad on kickoffs.
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Old 10-24-2012   #6
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

Fortunately, the NFL has a playoff system to determine champions, and not some convoluted BCS crap or rankings where opinions mean anything.

I have no doubt that the Texans are better than the Broncos, including the win at Denver. So they can keep their editorial rankings and I'll stick with reality.
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Old 10-24-2012   #7
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

Denver is the best team in the AFC. They have a 3-3 record, but their 3 losses have come to great teams including Houston, Atlanta, and New England. Houston and New England are rated below them.

Yeah, makes perfect sense

I can agree with giving teams with tough schedules a boost, but you can't knock down the Texans for playing the 3-3 Broncos and bump up the Broncos for playing the 6-1 Texans and say "Broncos are better"

Its circular in nature and ridiculous
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Old 10-24-2012   #8
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Denver has also lost 15 of 19 fumbles this season
How does this not reflect on the Broncos? Oh, "unlucky" factors into the equation. How freakin' moronic.
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Old 10-24-2012   #9
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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How does this not reflect on the Broncos? Oh, "unlucky" factors into the equation. How freakin' moronic.
Its also poorly worded

They've forced 10 fumbles, and recovered 4 of them. Statistics show that most teams recover ~50% of fumbles (random)

They've fumbled 9 times, but lost 100% of them. Thats unusual and likely won't keep happening

Still, 9 fumbles in 6 games is a lot
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Old 10-24-2012   #10
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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How does this not reflect on the Broncos? Oh, "unlucky" factors into the equation. How freakin' moronic.
Recovering a fumble is not really a measurable skill. If the ball bounces your way, you fall on it, if it doesn't, you don't recover it. Chance is the main factor here.

Like someone mentioned. The only reason for Texans being low is the special teams play. Take that out of the equation, and the Texans are 2 or 3.
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Old 10-24-2012   #11
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Originally Posted by Exascor View Post
This is based on their formulas that are pretty accurate but...the Texans are low for really only 1 reason. They are 31st in their special teams ranking. If they were just 16th they would be a top 2-3 team in their rankings. Special teams hasn't cost the Texans a game yet but sure could have.

Imagine how good the Texans would be if they got anything positive from the return game or coverage units.
ST cost us the Packers game. I know the offense and defense stunk it up too, but we would have had an excellent chance at winning still if ST simply played average and didn't make huge mistakes.
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Old 10-24-2012   #12
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

That's neat that we're the 7th best NFL team to someone.

I think we're all in agreement that it's either 5 or 6 spots too low, though.
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Old 10-24-2012   #13
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

I think it just reinforces how bad things are on special teams.

If we play great offense and defense hopefully we don't need to be special on special teams.
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Old 10-24-2012   #14
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

If Tate hadn't fumbled in the 4th quarter against the Broncos it would've been a beat down. We were driving that series and had killed over 4 min of the clock when Tate fumbled.

Eh, espn's good for games, scores and highlights. I never watch or read anything of theirs that is opinion based
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Old 10-24-2012   #15
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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ST cost us the Packers game. I know the offense and defense stunk it up too, but we would have had an excellent chance at winning still if ST simply played average and didn't make huge mistakes.
I wouldn't say they cost us that game. They contributed to the loss. That really was a 3 phase beatdown. You can't say that if special teams had performed average that the game would have definately been a win. But...maybe I'm blocking something out. That game is covered by a fog in my brain. =P
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Old 10-24-2012   #16
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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ST cost us the Packers game. I know the offense and defense stunk it up too, but we would have had an excellent chance at winning still if ST simply played average and didn't make huge mistakes.
Did we watch the same game?

All four phases were dominated by the Packers. Offense, defense, special teams, coaching. The only 'highlight' was JJ Watt and the game clock finally reaching 0:00.
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Old 10-24-2012   #17
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Old 10-24-2012   #18
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

I will go with Bill Parcells on this one. "We are who are record says we are!"

We are a team that has played pretty damn good for 6 games and had one bad game.
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Old 10-24-2012   #19
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

Even though FO has us as the 7th best team, it also thinks we have better odds than anyone of not just getting there, but winning the Super Bowl. That's a bit of a statistical oddity too. Any NFC team would be favored, but there's more NFC teams in the mix than AFC.
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Old 10-24-2012   #20
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

Hmm. Wonder what the spread would be if Broncos played here for SB birth..We'd have to be favored (No new injuries to either team)
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