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View Poll Results: Will the Texans beat the Ravens at Reliant by at least 7 points?
Yes, they will. 37 52.11%
I don't think so. 34 47.89%
Voters: 71. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 10-16-2012   #21
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Default Re: Early Line: Houston -6.5 over Baltimore

I think the spread for the Texans game is too big since these are both 5-1 teams with some obvious flaws. It set to get good action for the bookies versus a reflection of the difference in teams.
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Old 10-16-2012   #22
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Default Re: Early Line: Houston -6.5 over Baltimore

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Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan View Post
I think the spread for the Texans game is too big since these are both 5-1 teams with some obvious flaws. It set to get good action for the bookies versus a reflection of the difference in teams.
I don't think 5-1 means what you think it means. Chicago finished 8-8 last year, Buffalo finished 6-10, but I think started 5-1, or pretty close. Green Bay & New England will probably finish closer to 12-4 than 8-8.
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Old 10-17-2012   #23
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Default Re: Early Line: Houston -6.5 over Baltimore

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Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post
I don't think 5-1 means what you think it means. Chicago finished 8-8 last year, Buffalo finished 6-10, but I think started 5-1, or pretty close. Green Bay & New England will probably finish closer to 12-4 than 8-8.
Neither the Texans nor Ravens were 'surprisingly' good teams like the Bills in 2011, so bringing them up in not relevant. 6.5 points is clear favorite in NFL. Sorry, the Texans are not clearly better than the Ravens. The texans may win by more than that, but it won't be because this betting line is accurate in its portrayal of the gap between the teams.
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Old 10-17-2012   #24
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Default Re: Early Line: Houston -6.5 over Baltimore

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Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan View Post
Neither the Texans nor Ravens were 'surprisingly' good teams like the Bills in 2011, so bringing them up in not relevant. 6.5 points is clear favorite in NFL. Sorry, the Texans are not clearly better than the Ravens. The texans may win by more than that, but it won't be because this betting line is accurate in its portrayal of the gap between the teams.
& it won't be because they are both currently 5-1

The betting line is reflective of how people feel about these two teams. For whatever reasons people have been putting their money on the Texans beating the Ravens by a touchdown or so. Using their guts, their own personal "power rankings" whatever, they set the margin where it's at.
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Old 10-17-2012   #25
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Default Re: Early Line: Houston -6.5 over Baltimore

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Ravens more talented? They're starting three guys we did not want.
2 maybe, not a chance Kubes wouldn't want Leach, best FB in the NFL. Just couldn't afford him.
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Old 10-17-2012   #26
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Default Re: Early Line: Houston -6.5 over Baltimore

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2 maybe, not a chance Kubes wouldn't want Leach, best FB in the NFL. Just couldn't afford him.
I think we paid Jacoby the $3M Leach was looking for, so it wasn't a matter of not being able to afford him, but not wanting to pay what he was asking. We didn't want him at that price, if that's what you mean.
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Old 10-17-2012   #27
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Default Re: Early Line: Houston -6.5 over Baltimore

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Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post
I don't think 5-1 means what you think it means. Chicago finished 8-8 last year, Buffalo finished 6-10, but I think started 5-1, or pretty close. Green Bay & New England will probably finish closer to 12-4 than 8-8.
Maybe I said it wrong, but the general consensus around the country is that the Texans are a much better team than the Ravens, regardless the similar 5-1 record... we didn't get to play the Cowboys.
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From Yahoo Sports
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3. Houston Texans (5-1)
Last week: 2
So they got clobbered on Sunday night against the Packers ‒ what's the takeaway? That Aaron Rodgers might still be a really good quarterback, and that the Texans are not a perfect football team? Neither of these items need be accompanied by a "Breaking News" graphic. They hacked up a furball against a desperate team that played their best football of the season. It happens.

4. Baltimore Ravens (5-1)
Last week: 7
I feel like there should've been a massive gap after the third team ‒ Falcons first, Giants second, Texans third, and then a whole lot of bank space and we'll resume around 10 or so. The Ravens probably didn't deserve to win this week (not my words, they're Joe Flacco's), but that's how the NFL carousel rotates. It just happened to be the Ravens this week who were the recipient of the Cowboys' weekly gift of football ineptitude.
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Old 10-17-2012   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post
Maybe I said it wrong, but the general consensus around the country is that the Texans are a much better team than the Ravens, regardless the similar 5-1 record... we didn't get to play the Cowboys.


And the previous week's 9-6 win over Chiefs doesn't look good on the Ravens either.

I won't predict anything on this game because frankly the Texans just showed me that they're capable of taking an entire game off.

I've seen this team sandbag for a quarter, quarter-and-a-half...but taking the entire GB game off has soured me on saying "Yes, Texans will beat the Ravens."

The better "bet" is Ravens SU at a $100 and you can win $260. IMO. Only in terms of betting/money. Because there's a good chance Texans slack, again, when they know they've got a bye week to look forward to. Just sayin'...
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Old 10-17-2012   #29
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Default Re: Early Line: Houston -6.5 over Baltimore

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I won't predict anything on this game because frankly the Texans just showed me that they're capable of taking an entire game off.
Things may not have gone the way they expected, but if I were the Texans, I'd take offense. None of us are perfect & those guys were playing their asses off. Tim Jamison didn't tear his achilles by taking the entire game off.
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Old 10-17-2012   #30
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Default Re: Early Line: Houston -6.5 over Baltimore

Vegas doesnt care what our record is, they base the line on this game +/- where the money hits
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Old 10-17-2012   #31
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Default Re: Early Line: Houston -6.5 over Baltimore

This will be a Statement game and tell us a lot about our team. They looked sloppy and overconfident last week - how do they respond? Will they be nervous and disorganized or will they be determined and executing like we are used to?

Win or lose, after this game we should know where this team can go this year...
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Old 10-17-2012   #32
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Default Re: Early Line: Houston -6.5 over Baltimore

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This will be a Statement game and tell us a lot about our team. They looked sloppy and overconfident last week - how do they respond? Will they be nervous and disorganized or will they be determined and executing like we are used to?

Win or lose, after this game we should know where this team can go this year...
On that bolded part, if the Texans have another horrid and sloppy game like last Sunday, this board, and the press, will properly and justifiably crucify them.
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Old 10-17-2012   #33
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Default Re: Early Line: Houston -6.5 over Baltimore

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Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post
First, the spread will be closer by game time. However, I believe they'll cover 6.5 if they are the team I think they are & I believe they are.

Secondly, I believe polls should be public by default.
If you look today, the spread appears to have widened, on the average, from about 6.5 points to about 7 points.

And while I theoretically like the idea of public polls also, especially for something like this, my experience has been that substantially fewer people tend to participate when you make the poll public. Of course even when it is private, as this one is, people can choose to put themselves on record by posting their opinions in the thread.
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Old 10-17-2012   #34
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Default Re: Early Line: Houston -6.5 over Baltimore

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Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan View Post
Neither the Texans nor Ravens were 'surprisingly' good teams like the Bills in 2011, so bringing them up in not relevant. 6.5 points is clear favorite in NFL. Sorry, the Texans are not clearly better than the Ravens. The texans may win by more than that, but it won't be because this betting line is accurate in its portrayal of the gap between the teams.
I don't think the betting line is supposed to represent some gap between the teams. The only thing it represents is betting public's confidence in wagering money on either team. And there's obviously more money coming in on the Texans for whatever reason. Often there is a linear correlation between the two, but there doesn't have to be.
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Old 10-17-2012   #35
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Default Re: Early Line: Houston -6.5 over Baltimore

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I don't think the betting line is supposed to represent some gap between the teams. The only thing it represents is betting public's confidence in wagering money on either team. And there's obviously more money coming in on the Texans for whatever reason. Often there is a linear correlation between the two, but there doesn't have to be.
Nevertheless, if you had to pick a point spread that forced people to a point of uncertainty and indecision about which way to go, what would it be? Seven points does it for me. I picked the Texans, but truth be told, that looks like an awful lot of points against a tough opponent. Would you think maybe 4 or 5 would be better?
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Old 10-17-2012   #36
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Default Re: Early Line: Houston -6.5 over Baltimore

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Originally Posted by MojoMan View Post
Nevertheless, if you had to pick a point spread that forced people to a point of uncertainty and indecision about which way to go, what would it be? Seven points does it for me. I picked the Texans, but truth be told, that looks like an awful lot of points against a tough opponent. Would you think maybe 4 or 5 would be better?
I'm sure the starting lines that the casinos come out with directly correlate to what the odds makers think the result will be. Any movement after that is only based on which side of the line gets more money bet.

I've also always heard that the home team automatically gets 3 points. I don't know how true that is, but home field should account for something. 3 points seems high to me, but what do I know.

I can see this game going either way. I can see us winning by 10+, but I can also see us losing. So, I personally would never put money on this game, unless the line was ridiculous. 7 seems high, but not yet ridiculous.
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Old 10-17-2012   #37
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Default Re: Early Line: Houston -6.5 over Baltimore

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I think we paid Jacoby the $3M Leach was looking for, so it wasn't a matter of not being able to afford him, but not wanting to pay what he was asking. We didn't want him at that price, if that's what you mean.
Houston couldn't afford both that year. I think the result was due to them having no answer for depth at WR, but feel like they did at FB. There is little doubt that we wanted him at that price.. But cap space set the tone, rather than want.

Vonte was justified in not accepting Houston's offer. He deserved to get paid for being the best at his position. Unfortunately, his position wasn't the staple of how this Texans offense was designed.

Vonta certainly can't be used as an bullet for suggestion that the ravens aren't more talented because of him not being wanted by Houston.

I personally side with BullBlitz, but not naming players. I just feel like the Raven's Offense has been pretty effective, and we are looking at a Texan team learning to play without the Defensive Captain. On the flip side, the Houston offense has shown little sign of operating on all cylinders. There have been flashes, but for the most part.. it's giving me the appearance of a unit that is stalled. The loss of Lewis for the season in Baltimore has been suggested to be of little consequence, as his replacement is proven to play at a similar or better level. Ray's spirit will still be there on the sideline, which IMHO, is his strength.
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Old 10-17-2012   #38
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Default Re: Early Line: Houston -6.5 over Baltimore

I voted no. Them getting blown out like they did has brought my pessimistic shoe drop outlook back. Bastards!
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Old 10-17-2012   #39
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Default Re: Early Line: Houston -6.5 over Baltimore

The Ravens lost by 1 to Philly, and have* won every other game in very close fashion. Baltimore will cover. This isn't a team that gets down big.
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Old 10-17-2012   #40
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Default Re: Early Line: Houston -6.5 over Baltimore

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The Ravens lost by 1 to Philly, and has won every other game in very close fashion. Baltimore will cover. This isn't a team that gets down big.
Hey Nate, do you know their record against the line, and the fashion they cover or not? Just curious.
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