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Old 05-30-2005   #1
JacksonvilleJaguar4
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Default AFC South QB Predictions

Manning= 3750-4300 yrds, 37TD's 12INT's, 66%, 16gp

Leftwich= 2750-3400 yrds, 24TD's 12INT's, 61%, 16 gp

McNair= 2900-3500 yrds, 29TD's 14INT's, 63%, 15gp

Carr= 2750-3600 yrds, 24TD's 13INT's, 61%, 16gp

I think these predictions are pretty fair.
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Old 05-30-2005   #2
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so david passes for the same amount of yards one less int and has the same completion % but 8 more TDS


i pretty sure he shows a littel more progress
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Old 05-30-2005   #3
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there's no way leftwich can put up the same numbers as carr and mcnair will probably only play 8-10 games.
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Old 05-30-2005   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JacksonvilleJaguar4
Manning= 3750-4300 yrds, 37TD's 12INT's, 66%, 16gp

Leftwich= 2750-3400 yrds, 24TD's 12INT's, 61%, 16 gp

McNair= 2900-3500 yrds, 29TD's 14INT's, 63%, 15gp

Carr= 2750-3600 yrds, 24TD's 13INT's, 61%, 16gp

I think these predictions are pretty fair.
I am not sure about your numbers. I do not know what effect Edge will have on the moral of the team. McNair has been getting beaten up a lot recently and I do not know how much they have done to get him protection, so I will say he plays about 11 games instead of your proposed 15. Leftwich is a bit of an enigma for me. I have seen some great things from him one week(against Indy) and some pretty horrible play another(agianst H-town). I think he will probably throw a few more int's and a couple less td passes. Carr will have a higher completion %, and about 3500 yds and fewer ints. This is becuase he is going to a short pass system where a player can really rack up completions and it is harder to throw ints. I am not sure about his tds though becuase the Texans might try to run the clock and thus go to a heavy run game which will clealry eat into Carr's stats.
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Old 05-30-2005   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JacksonvilleJaguar4
Manning= 3750-4300 yrds, 37TD's 12INT's, 66%, 16gp

Leftwich= 2750-3400 yrds, 24TD's 12INT's, 61%, 16 gp

McNair= 2900-3500 yrds, 29TD's 14INT's, 63%, 15gp

Carr= 2750-3600 yrds, 24TD's 13INT's, 61%, 16gp

I think these predictions are pretty fair.
Carr: 2900-3500, 26TDs, 13INTs, 65%, 16gp

Manning: 3900-4600, 42TDs, 13Ints, 67%, 16gp

Leftwitch: 2600-3200, 20TDs, 12Ints, 61% , 15gp

McNair: 2000- 2800, 15TDs, 10Ints, 13gp
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Old 05-30-2005   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JacksonvilleJaguar4
Manning= 3750-4300 yrds, 37TD's 12INT's, 66%, 16gp

Leftwich= 2750-3400 yrds, 24TD's 12INT's, 61%, 16 gp

McNair= 2900-3500 yrds, 29TD's 14INT's, 63%, 15gp

Carr= 2750-3600 yrds, 24TD's 13INT's, 61%, 16gp

I think these predictions are pretty fair.

I think you're close with Manning, and the total yardage predictions seem about right (but personally I think Carr is capable of a 4,000-yard season)... but what looks off to me are the TD/INT predictions. I think you have all these guys (except Manning) chucking way too many TD passes.

1) I don't see Leftwich's TDs to INTs going from a 3-to-2 ratio (15/10 in 2004) to 2-to-1. If anything, he might throw fewer of each. But if he throws 24 TDs as you predict, he'll probably throw at least 16 INTs.

2) I love McNair, but I don't know what he's got left. No one really does. So if he chucks 29 TDs and throws only 14 INTs along the way, he'll be back to MVP form.

3) Carr should improve his completion percentage and efficiency, but 24 TDs is a pretty significant jump from the 16 he threw in 2004.
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Old 05-31-2005   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atxcoolguy
there's no way leftwich can put up the same numbers as carr and mcnair will probably only play 8-10 games.
Why not?

David Carr last year had 1 more TD and 4 more INT thrown and had 690 more yards while playing 2 more games than BL. When Jacksonville's new offense that allows BL to throw the ball down the field should let him to pick up more yards and hopefully more TDs.
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Old 05-31-2005   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jags98
Why not?

David Carr last year had 1 more TD and 4 more INT thrown and had 690 more yards while playing 2 more games than BL. When Jacksonville's new offense that allows BL to throw the ball down the field should let him to pick up more yards and hopefully more TDs.
and alot more INT's.
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Old 05-31-2005   #9
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and alot more INT's.
Yes probably more TDs but probably more TDs. Until David Carr can break the cover 2 system he is the one that is going to be having the problems.
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Old 05-31-2005   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by awtysst
I am not sure about your numbers. I do not know what effect Edge will have on the moral of the team. McNair has been getting beaten up a lot recently and I do not know how much they have done to get him protection, so I will say he plays about 11 games instead of your proposed 15. Leftwich is a bit of an enigma for me. I have seen some great things from him one week(against Indy) and some pretty horrible play another(agianst H-town). I think he will probably throw a few more int's and a couple less td passes. Carr will have a higher completion %, and about 3500 yds and fewer ints. This is becuase he is going to a short pass system where a player can really rack up completions and it is harder to throw ints. I am not sure about his tds though becuase the Texans might try to run the clock and thus go to a heavy run game which will clealry eat into Carr's stats.
Be careful on the INT thing. Actually INT's might be more common with the short passing game. The defense may gamble more and the QB is depending on his receiver to be at a certain place at a certain time. If he's not it can be an easy INT. There's less opportunity to throw the ball out of bounds to avoid INT's. I think this new scheme has mixed blessings.
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Old 05-31-2005   #11
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Actually, Leftwitch and McNair will probably be the 2 worst in the division, Jacksonville has to prove their running game without having their best runningback comming into the season. Tennisee will probably be horrible again this season, McNair will be injured for a larg portion of the season, he's just getting to old to take all the hits he's taken in the past, plus they've lost their best reciever and will probably try to run the ball more than anything else, unless one of their young recievers really steps it up this year (Tyrone Calico). Even at that, McNair will probably never see much more than 20 TD's in one season for the rest of his career. Leftwitch is good, but don't look for probowles in his 3'rd season, plus being pretty much the slowest QB I've ever seen doesn't help him much in todays NFL. The Texans will have a solid running game this season, and they have a group of steadly improving recievers in Johnson, Gaffeny, and Armstrong. The O-Line will be better contrary to the belief of many people on this board, and with a better line last year, Carr would've hit 4,000 yards, the whole cover 2 thing will simply be a matter of getting better in the running game. Plus I personaly feel that 4300 yards is pretty conservative for Manning considering the offensive scheme that the Colts run, and the talent they have at WR and RB. I wouldn't be suprised to see Manning pass for over 5,000 yards again this year.
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Old 05-31-2005   #12
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I think teams have now come to the conclusion that Lefty can't run out of his own shadow and on passing downs will just overload with the rushers. I look for him to get sacked ALOT this year. He throws well, but they WILL come after him and his recievers will need to get open quick to keep him up right and more importantly uninjured which may not be easy. Seems like a gamer, but a bit fragile.
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Old 06-01-2005   #13
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there's no way that McNair throws for 29 TDs this season. i mean its undisputable that hes one of the all-time greats but he just doesnt have it left in him at this point in his career. besides, on the off chance that he does manage to stay healthy its not like he's got a probowl cast around him. i think the other three predictions are pretty accurate but i think leftwich's yds might be a little under what you have.
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Old 06-01-2005   #14
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come on i can count atleast 6 of the ints david threw where it was either end of game our end of the first half, and he thre a hail marry and it got picked off. Carr is actually a very accurate passer.
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