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Old 01-14-2014   #1561
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
O rly? The tweet playoffs quoted said Gil will put JFF at number 1 in his first mock. Maybe he changes that, but it was his quote.
The tweeter was wrong.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1562
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by mussop View Post
The tweeter was wrong.
How was it wrong if he hasn't put out a mock yet? Big difference between will be and was
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Old 01-14-2014   #1563
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
The rhetoric comments, not rhetoric, were about Texian's use of capitalization, which by the way I agree with.



I think these huge trades draftniks drool over are just shy of a figment of their imagination - somewhere a white elephant exists, don't expect to see them any time soon. Trades in general aren't that common and 90% of them fall into the small maneuvers category like dropping back for Duane Brown or moving up for Flacco.
Oh gotcha, read that wrong.

And yeah I agree, major trades just don't happen a ton in the NFL which is another reason why I don't see us getting a legendary offer for our #1 pick. St Louis is in a better position to trade down, because they have other picks to deal with, while we don't really have the luxury of giving up additional picks...plus one would assume the #1 overall comes at a notable higher price than the #2, and that price is probably not justifiable given the players in this draft.

In my opinion, Manziel and Teddy are the only top 10 worthy QBs in this draft, and I think come draft time their stock will be similar and we will have people who are in both their camps, therefore, theoretically Cleveland could trade up to STL for a cheaper price and still get one of them.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1564
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Default Re: Manziel

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The tweeter was wrong.
The Tweeter is never wrong, never question the Tweeter...blasphemy.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1565
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by matts290 View Post
You capitalize them like they are chapters in the NFL GM and Owners handbook or something, when in reality there is really no rule of thumb for trading the first overall pick because in the modern era is has effectively only happened twice.

The Eli Manning trade where essentially the Chargers traded their first overall pick in 2004 for the Giants 5th overall and 65th overall in 2004, and also their 1st and 5th rounders in 2005. Keep in mind Eli was a consensus first overall pick, more of a sure thing than any of the guys in this draft, plus the Manning's made it known that Eli would not being playing in San Diego. This trade was made after the picks were already made so it's not exactly the situation we are in there...

The second instance is from 2001 where the Chargers traded their first overall for the Falcons 1st and 5th rounders in 2001.

So no, there is no rule of thumb for trading the first overall pick and expecting "3 first rounders" or the "4 , 26 , 68 & next years #1" is crazy.
The trade you discuss is close to 3 1s in value. Go back and review past #1 being traded and you will find more often than not that 3 1st Rd or equal value were included. The Falcons Chargers trade was for a 1, a 2, a 3 and a player. The Chargers were not interested in Vick and wanted out so they took their best offer.

Last edited by Texian; 01-14-2014 at 12:34 PM.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1566
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by JB View Post
How was it wrong if he hasn't put out a mock yet? Big difference between will be and was
Yeh I was wrong.
One of the most well-respected draft analysts in the country, Gil Brandt, has yet to release his first mock draft of the season, but he is preparing to do so and has already determined who the top pick will be.

For Brandt, it is none other than Texas A&M star quarterback Johnny Manziel that he will have the Houston Texans selecting.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1567
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by matts290 View Post
Vince Young could have been a very good QB, he just didn't want to be.
no, he couldnt have. what he showed for the titans was his peak. the coaching staff was able to dumb it down enough for his ability to carry him (along with a good run game and defense) to a few wins. once vince had to be an actual quarterback, he cracked. i've talked to several people who have played with and against vince through the years and they all say the same thing. he is the absolute dumbest player they've ever been around. phenomenal talent, but quite literally too stupid to play in the NFL.

manziel isnt a moron like vince, but the maturity level that he's shown makes me believe that he'll have the same ceiling - capped by his own mental issues. unfortunately for manziel, he isnt blessed with the pure physical abilities that would float him a few years before the NFL becomes real.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1568
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Default Re: Manziel

Cecil Lammey ‏@cecillammey
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Scout on Johnny Manziel "I'll throw to an a$$hole, I'll hand off to an a$$hole, I'd never snap to an a$$hole." #NFLdraft personality perceptions thick

Another long-time scout (future GM?) of team w/premium pick says "we don't want him" both personality and on field issues for them

As expected, I'm hearing all sorts of opinions on Johnny Manziel #NFLDraft from scouts. 1 team w/top 10 pick says they've found 0 problems
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Old 01-14-2014   #1569
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Default Re: Manziel

http://www.draftjohnnymanziel.com/

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Texans Fans for Johnny Manziel!

This site is dedicated to supporting Johnny Manziel as the #1 draft pick of the Houston Texans in 2014. To win in the NFL a team must have a quarterback with strong leadership skills, a winning attitude, and lots of talent. Johnny Manziel is a winner and he is a unique talent--college football has never seen anything like him. Johnny Manziel has proven time and again that he has those skills needed to get the Texans back on track. If the Texans use their number one pick on Johnny, we will once again have hopes of Super Bowl glory. If you're a Texans fan, and you want to see Johnny Manziel in a Texans uniform, show your support by liking our Facebook page. Let's show Bob McNair just how much we want and NEED Johnny Football. Don't blow it Bob--Draft Johnny!
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Old 01-14-2014   #1570
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Default Re: Manziel

That seals it. Perception wise among the public JFF = VY.

"Johnny has healing powers!"
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Old 01-14-2014   #1571
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Default Re: Manziel

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texian View Post
The trade you discuss is close to 3 1s in value. Go back and review past #1 being traded and you will find more often than not that 3 1st Rd or equal value were included. The Falcons Chargers trade was for a 1, a 2, a 3 and a player. The Chargers were not interested in Vick and wanted out so they took their best offer.
I just did, those are the only two instances of the first overall pick being traded in the modern era of the NFL, and even then the Chargers-Giants trade had some extenuating circumstances that make it very different than our situation at hand. The point is, it just doesn't happen often, so regardless of what we should expect in return, history suggests that is very unlikely we trade out of the first spot.


Quote:
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no, he couldnt have. what he showed for the titans was his peak. the coaching staff was able to dumb it down enough for his ability to carry him (along with a good run game and defense) to a few wins. once vince had to be an actual quarterback, he cracked. i've talked to several people who have played with and against vince through the years and they all say the same thing. he is the absolute dumbest player they've ever been around. phenomenal talent, but quite literally too stupid to play in the NFL.

manziel isnt a moron like vince, but the maturity level that he's shown makes me believe that he'll have the same ceiling - capped by his own mental issues. unfortunately for manziel, he isnt blessed with the pure physical abilities that would float him a few years before the NFL becomes real.
That is kinda what I was getting at, his mentality and work ethic is what held him back. Sure he might not have been the brightest guy ever, but if he would have put in the work to try and grasp the concepts he needed to, maybe his career would have been different. Maybe he was just too stupid to play in the NFL like you say. Either way, this is not Manziel, he is a bright kid who has the work ethic and drive to get better and learn in the NFL.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1572
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by Scooter View Post
no, he couldnt have. what he showed for the titans was his peak. the coaching staff was able to dumb it down enough for his ability to carry him (along with a good run game and defense) to a few wins. once vince had to be an actual quarterback, he cracked. i've talked to several people who have played with and against vince through the years and they all say the same thing. he is the absolute dumbest player they've ever been around. phenomenal talent, but quite literally too stupid to play in the NFL.

manziel isnt a moron like vince, but the maturity level that he's shown makes me believe that he'll have the same ceiling - capped by his own mental issues. unfortunately for manziel, he isnt blessed with the pure physical abilities that would float him a few years before the NFL becomes real.
Work ethic, maturity and personality issues can be changed or corrected and is a glass door.

Intelligence is a brick wall.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1573
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by matts290 View Post

So no, there is no rule of thumb for trading the first overall pick and expecting "3 first rounders" or the "4 , 26 , 68 & next years #1" is crazy.
Look , you are entitled to your opinion .... fact is , a trade of that magnitude is not without precedent.


Those examples you give are not relevant to this discussion as they were made before the rookie salary scale was put in place which makes those premium picks even more valuable as they give the team making the selection control over that player for a longer period of time at a significant discount as compared to those not on the rookie scale.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1574
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by Errant Hothy View Post
That seals it. Perception wise among the public JFF = VY.

"Johnny has healing powers!"
I hope they make a manziel version of the "pick VY" song. that song was catchy.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1575
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Default Re: Manziel

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Proof that aTm homers are just as silly as UT homers.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1576
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by Honoring Earl 34 View Post
One of these photos shows a high release point. I wonder if he's been working on this or if it's just a publicity photo pose?
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Old 01-14-2014   #1577
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by mussop View Post
I'm on record that I would LOVE for us to draft Manziel. However I believe it's more likely McNair is floating this out there because of the recent reports that Cleveland is infatuated with JM and they are sitting on two first round picks. Just as I predicted would happen awhile back. Like I said, the chess game has begun.

I would be surprised if every rumor of another high picking team falling in love with a player wasn't followed by a rumor that we were leaning that way ourselves.
I fully endorse this idea of making our interest in various high round draft choices public. We have the only guaranteed selection available and there is no reason we shouldn't be the one receiving all the request for trading up. Hopefully we get one we can't refuse.

First was the article about Clowney being seen live because of McNair's association with SC. Then the story about Manziel. I love seeing FO that maximizes value rather than giving a reporter an inside scoop which straightjackets us.

A certain former GM with the Astros was the worlds worst at doing just that.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1578
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by JB View Post
That curse only affects those that win the Heisman following those that win it after their senior season, not those that win it after their freshman season
I think he was referencing this Heisman curse....

There is only one Heisman winning QB with a playoff win in the last 25 years.....Tim Tebow.

Here's the list:

Robert Griffin III
Cam Newton
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow (1 playoff win)
Troy Smith
Matt Leinart
Jason White
Carson Palmer
Eric Crouch
Chris Weinke
Danny Wuerffel
Charlie Ward
Gino Torretta
Ty Detmer
Andre Ware
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Old 01-14-2014   #1579
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by mussop View Post
I think you are overthinking this a little.
There are 31 other teams who would want this pick. Some more than others. We only need two to get in a bidding war to get the price up. They not only have to meet our threshold, but outbid all other teams as well.

If we telegraph any particular player as our pick, then the Rams at two are sitting in the rocking chair with the courtiers.

I'd love to trade down one pick at a time picking up extra picks with every move. But that is contingent on teams deciding their player is enough better than the alternative to make it worth the cost. You can make each pick conditional so that you direct the draft to the point your player of choice cannot fall further.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1580
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by Corrosion View Post
Those examples you give are not relevant to this discussion as they were made before the rookie salary scale was put in place which makes those premium picks even more valuable as they give the team making the selection control over that player for a longer period of time at a significant discount as compared to those not on the rookie scale.
That's semantics. If that's true, then the RG3 trade is also not relevant to this discussion because there is no outstanding talent available that would dictate such a trade like there was in 2012.

I've said it over and over, talent dictates value. The value is not as high this year as it was with RG3. You can't just point to the 2012 trade and say that is the value of the 2014 #1 pick. The talent pool dictates the value.

I agree with you that those pre-New CBA trades are not in line with the current value attributed to draft picks but, as I said, using the RG3 trade as the standard is not accurate either.
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