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Old 02-25-2014   #2561
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by Texian View Post
I'm not sure the Seahawk offense would get past the first playoff game without that Defense.
Hard to say, but I highly doubt they make it to the Super Bowl. Young players all over their offense, including Wilson.
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Old 02-25-2014   #2562
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
How would you rank the 2012 class if Bridgewater, Bortles, & Manziel were in that draft?

Luck
Griffin
Tannehill
Weeden
Osweiller
Wilson
Foles
Cousins
Lindley
Coleman

Not really rated, but the top 10 drafted.
I think that the top 3 from this draft all slot in above Tannehill. I would probably slot TB above Griffin and the other two behind him. (Without the benefit of hindsight)
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Old 02-25-2014   #2563
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Default Re: Manziel

Not sure if this is viewable or not...

Setting The Record Straight On Johnny Manziel

Quote:
<snipped>...
CLOSING ARGUMENT

I understand Manziel’s flaws causing pause when evaluating him. Just like Tony Romo, who I think is closest to Manziel as a passer and decision-maker, Manziel will have a few turnover fests. He’ll have game-ending turnovers, and he’ll frustrate his fanbase by not being conservative when the game calls for it. Like Vick, he may miss some games due to injury because of his playing style. Like Kaepernick, he’ll have some games early in his career where good defenses can cut some of his favorite strategies off at the pass and force him to re-trench elsewhere in his game with mixed results.

None of these quarterbacks are failures. None were out of the league after five years, or destined to be backups.

Manziel’s calm, aggressive, and quick thinking and acting on the field will translate to the NFL. Last time I watched an NFL game, there were a lot of plays that forced a quarterback to function outside of the structure of a play. Being able to excel outside of the pocket, or when moved off of a launch point is a big part of winning at quarterback in the NFL. I understand the view that Manziel will have to do more than that, but holding his ability to do that against him in his evaluation, as if it is the ONLY way he wins is just plain false. The reality is that he has already demonstrated elite ability in one of the key areas that sink many quarterbacks who are very good when the play goes exactly as designed. This is a positive, not a negative.

Another factor is working against the prediction of Manziel as a failure. NFL offenses are merging with “college” offenses in their willingness to incorporate more concepts seen at the college level. NFL offensive coordinators today are much more willing to craft offensive gameplans to accentuate the strengths of their quarterback instead of trying to fit a square peg in a round hole. In addition, the team that takes Manziel will be one that actually likes his playing style. That increases the likelihood that they will design an offense that naturally fits Manziel’s ability to extend plays and be a threat as a runner. Let’s also remember that he just turned 21 in December and showed marked improvement between his freshman and sophomore years. This is inconvenient if an NFL projection of Manziel includes the assumption that he will not evolve in the pros a la Michael Vick - although Vick was able to turn the tools that made him a dominant college quarterback into a very good NFL career. Vick basically represents Manziel’s floor in the NFL.

The poles in the relative possibilities of what lies ahead of Johnny Manziel are not nearly far apart as the poles in the evaluations of his NFL future. He will either be a tease who dominates at times, but never quite puts it all together and relies too much on his gifts like Vick, or he will continue to grow and fall somewhere on the McNabb-Romo-Favre axis. To predict abject failure ignores the aspects of Manziel’s game beyond improvisation, and how many of the elements of his improvisation will translate. No matter what happens, Manziel will continue to be one of the most talked-about players in the league, and we will all learn more from each other about evaluating the quarterback position and what it takes to win at QB in the NFL… and I look forward to that almost as much as I look forward to watching Manziel play on Sundays. Almost.
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Old 02-25-2014   #2564
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by Playoffs View Post
Not sure if this is viewable or not...

Setting The Record Straight On Johnny Manziel
Good read Playoffs, keep up the good work.

Everytime I think I'm out on Manziel I see something that keeps me interested.
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Old 02-25-2014   #2565
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by mussop View Post
I challenge anyone to provide a link from Wilson's draft year proving that they had Wilson rated as a high first round pick.

Also don't see why you would presume I use ESPN to rank prospects. I have been here for years doing this and have always gone against the media hype machine. In fact I really like Wilson a lot as a developmental QB. Which is what most of the better draftniks here did. Do not remember anyone claiming he was a high first round pick under any condition.
I'm not digging two years into my post history but you're welcome to do it if you wish. I never said I had him rated as a high first round pick. I had him rated near the end of the 1st round.

You're the one talking about other people's ratings=better prospect. You put that on yourself. I didn't mean that as a personal shot at you. I meant that as a way of saying that my rankings are sometimes different than what other people's are. Most people did not have Wilson as a 1st round talent. I did.

I judge prospects on my own and try not to let other people's opinions guide me. If that means I'm way wrong sometimes then so be it.

I value QBs who don't need much work mentally to make the jump from college to the pros. That's why I was high on Wilson and it's why I'm high on Bridgewater.
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Old 02-25-2014   #2566
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by mussop View Post
I challenge anyone to provide a link from Wilson's draft year proving that they had Wilson rated as a high first round pick.

Also don't see why you would presume I use ESPN to rank prospects. I have been here for years doing this and have always gone against the media hype machine. In fact I really like Wilson a lot as a developmental QB. Which is what most of the better draftniks here did. Do not remember anyone claiming he was a high first round pick under any condition.
I still wouldn't take Russell Wilson for a high 1st in this year's draft. If we are talking about draft value, what sort of pick would a QB desperate team give up for Wilson?

Would the Browns give up 4? Nope. 26? Maybe... 35? Much more likely.
Would Oakland give up 5? Don't think so. 37? Sure.
Texans 2-1 would be the most I think they would pay for it.
The Cardinals would probably give up their 1st for him, but partially because that would mean the Seahawks would need a new QB...

I really don't see Wilson as being worth a top 15 pick, even today. He's an excellent game manager, but you have to have a really good defense and running game to go with him. He can do alright with an average o-line due to his pocket presence and mobility, which allows the team to invest more heavily into other areas. That's a big positive, and as long as he stays cheap, he's well worth the investment.

I think it will be very telling in 2 years when Wilson's contract is up for negotiation. I really wonder if the Seahawks will look to draft a replacement for him this year or next, because I think his pricetag will far outweigh his value. If they have a cheap backup plan in place (like a Garrapolo, Murray, Smith, etc) I think they might just trade him or let him walk. He's going to want probably 12 million a year, and I don't think he will be worth it at that point.
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Old 02-25-2014   #2567
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
I still wouldn't take Russell Wilson for a high 1st in this year's draft. If we are talking about draft value, what sort of pick would a QB desperate team give up for Wilson?

Would the Browns give up 4? Nope. 26? Maybe... 35? Much more likely.
Would Oakland give up 5? Don't think so. 37? Sure.
Texans 2-1 would be the most I think they would pay for it.
The Cardinals would probably give up their 1st for him, but partially because that would mean the Seahawks would need a new QB...

I really don't see Wilson as being worth a top 15 pick, even today. He's an excellent game manager, but you have to have a really good defense and running game to go with him. He can do alright with an average o-line due to his pocket presence and mobility, which allows the team to invest more heavily into other areas. That's a big positive, and as long as he stays cheap, he's well worth the investment.

I think it will be very telling in 2 years when Wilson's contract is up for negotiation. I really wonder if the Seahawks will look to draft a replacement for him this year or next, because I think his pricetag will far outweigh his value. If they have a cheap backup plan in place (like a Garrapolo, Murray, Smith, etc) I think they might just trade him or let him walk. He's going to want probably 12 million a year, and I don't think he will be worth it at that point.
I see the point you're trying to make, but i think you're underrating him a little too much here. If it wasn't for his defense giving up 30 pts, He most certainly would've had the Seahawks in the NFC championship game his rookie year. Kid put in a damn fine effort against ATL too with nearly 400 yds passing, 60 yds rushing & 3 total TD's...& he did that as a rookie with no true #1 WR to speak of.

The thing that people miss with this kid is his poise. There's simply not a metric to measure that. He's never too high, never too low..never seems to be out of control... he's just unflappable no matter the situation. Coming out of college that was his #1 elite trait that i saw immediately...Like Luck he had it in spades. & that more than anything is what makes a qb great imo.

It's also what allows him to buck the sophomore slump trend that pretty much every other rookie qb has once teams get tape on them.
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Old 02-25-2014   #2568
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by mussop View Post
I challenge anyone to provide a link from Wilson's draft year proving that they had Wilson rated as a high first round pick.
Would take a hell of a lot of digging to find that info.

I distinctly remember bah007 and one other poster (can't remember who) both really liked Wilson and had him as a borderline 1st round guy.
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Old 02-25-2014   #2569
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by bah007 View Post
I'm not digging two years into my post history but you're welcome to do it if you wish. I never said I had him rated as a high first round pick. I had him rated near the end of the 1st round.

You're the one talking about other people's ratings=better prospect. You put that on yourself. I didn't mean that as a personal shot at you. I meant that as a way of saying that my rankings are sometimes different than what other people's are. Most people did not have Wilson as a 1st round talent. I did.

I judge prospects on my own and try not to let other people's opinions guide me. If that means I'm way wrong sometimes then so be it.

I value QBs who don't need much work mentally to make the jump from college to the pros. That's why I was high on Wilson and it's why I'm high on Bridgewater.
I absolutely didn't take any of this as a personnel shot. This is the best conversation of what Manziels value is/should be I have seen in this thread. If anyone did see Wilson's value/success I would believe it was you. I just don't remember ANYONE saying so that year.

I don't understand how you say you had Wilson rated as a late first round pick in a draft not as deep as this one yet Manziel is rated a high first his year but still you say Wilson is higher rated than Manziel coming out.
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Old 02-25-2014   #2570
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Default Re: Manziel

I think 76 texan.
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Old 02-25-2014   #2571
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Default Re: Manziel

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
How would you rank the 2012 class if Bridgewater, Bortles, & Manziel were in that draft?

Luck
Griffin
Tannehill
Weeden
Osweiller
Wilson
Foles
Cousins
Lindley
Coleman

Not really rated, but the top 10 drafted.
Luck - #1
Bridgewater - Top 15
Griffin - Top 15
Bortles - Top 20
Tannehill - Top 20
Manziel - 1st Round
Foles - 2nd Round
Wilson - 2nd Round
Cousins - 3rd Round
Osweiller - 3rd Round
Weeden - 4th Round
Lindley - 4th Round
Coleman - Late Round
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Old 02-25-2014   #2572
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by Mr teX View Post
I see the point you're trying to make, but i think you're underrating him a little too much here. If it wasn't for his defense giving up 30 pts, He most certainly would've had the Seahawks in the NFC championship game his rookie year. Kid put in a damn fine effort against ATL too with nearly 400 yds passing, 60 yds rushing & 3 total TD's...& he did that as a rookie with no true #1 WR to speak of.

The thing that people miss with this kid is his poise. There's simply not a metric to measure that. He's never too high, never too low..never seems to be out of control... he's just unflappable no matter the situation. Coming out of college that was his #1 elite trait that i saw immediately...Like Luck he had it in spades. & that more than anything is what makes a qb great imo.

It's also what allows him to buck the sophomore slump trend that pretty much every other rookie qb has once teams get tape on them.
He doesn't get rattled? How would you even know he's rattled, he doesn't throw the ball enough to really see it. He is rarely put in a position to try to come from behind late in a game. It's pretty hard to be rattled when your team is winning.

The guy is purely a game manager right now. He went 42 for 68 for 524 yards 3 TDs 0 INTs and 101.6 QB rating in the playoffs this year. In those 3 games, he was averaging 14 completions, 175 yards, and 1 TD a game. That is pretty much the definition of a game manager by stats, and there was a good reason he wasn't considered for the Super Bowl MVP, even though that was his best game of the playoffs.
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Old 02-25-2014   #2573
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by mussop View Post
I absolutely didn't take any of this as a personnel shot. This is the best conversation of what Manziels value is/should be I have seen in this thread. If anyone did see Wilson's value/success I would believe it was you. I just don't remember ANYONE saying so that year.
Good. After re-reading what I wrote I was afraid it came off as a harsh criticism and it wasn't intended that way.

And I think Wilson is overrated right now for what he is in the NFL. I think he still has potential to improve but he is not a top 10 QB right now. I'm not trying to claim that I predicted Super Bowls in his future.

Quote:
I don't understand how you say you had Wilson rated as a late first round pick in a draft not as deep as this one yet Manziel is rated a high first his year but still you say Wilson is higher rated than Manziel coming out.
Easy. I don't have Manziel rated as a high first round pick.
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Old 02-25-2014   #2574
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by _King_ View Post
I think 76 texan.
Perhaps. He took me to school on Cam Newton, who I liked but was very critical of.
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Old 02-25-2014   #2575
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by htownfan32 View Post
Agreed. Seahawk offense would have also failed in Houston were it not for Richard Sherman and the Seahawk defense.
I think generally it is a false endeavor to get into pulling pieces off teams. Odds are without Wilson last year the Seahawks don't win and without the D the Seahawks don't win. They are not mutually exclusive and lack a connection.

On that specific game I think you have selective memory. Wilson starting tearing us a new a-hole on the ground in the 2nd half - 10 att. 77 yds. He played a big part in their victory as did the defense.


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I still wouldn't take Russell Wilson for a high 1st in this year's draft. If we are talking about draft value, what sort of pick would a QB desperate team give up for Wilson?

Would the Browns give up 4? Nope. 26? Maybe... 35? Much more likely.
Would Oakland give up 5? Don't think so. 37? Sure.
Texans 2-1 would be the most I think they would pay for it.
Well put me down as thinking y'all in the Wilson is mediocre camp are dramatically underselling him. And I think your conjecture is totally wrong. There may be some teams who view Wilson as you do but I think the odds they all do and none would trade a top 10 pick for him are zilch. I think there is a 75% chance the Texans would trade 1.1 for him happily.

Wilson by the way has 8 4th quarter comebacks and 10 game winning drives in the past two seasons. He is not just riding a D.
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Old 02-25-2014   #2576
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by _King_ View Post
I think 76 texan.


He said he would have taken both Keenum and Wilson in the same draft.
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Old 02-25-2014   #2577
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by bah007 View Post
Perhaps. He took me to school on Cam Newton, who I liked but was very critical of.
I was wrong on Newton as well. He's not a great QB, but he's definitely better than I thought he would be.
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Old 02-25-2014   #2578
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by WolverineFan View Post
Luck - #1
Bridgewater - Top 15
Griffin - Top 15
...
Wow. That's some pretty big praise for Teddy.
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Old 02-25-2014   #2579
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by Playoffs View Post
Wow. That's some pretty big praise for Teddy.
Actually it's quite the opposite for Griffin. I have been very open about not being on the RGIII hype train. Had many questions about him coming out and thought the Redskins were absolute idiots to trade three 1st round picks for him.

I straight up said he would be out of the league in 5 years and that it was a good thing they grabbed Cousins too so that he could take over for him. Without his legs, he is average.

Loved him in college, but just like Manziel, did not like the transition.
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Old 02-25-2014   #2580
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Default Re: Manziel

After watching college tape, some quick notes.

1. Wilson is much safer than Manziel. Will take chances but not as dumb about them as Manziel will be at times.

2. Manziel has greater pocket escapability. Elusiveness and vision are off the charts.

3. Wilson has better throwing mechanics than Manziel. Looks more prototypical.

4. Manziel is a much, much bigger threat with his legs.

5. They are both accurate, but Manziel is stupid accurate when improvising.

6. Both lay it all out on the field. Example: I can recall instances where they
both tackle the CB who made the interception on them. Shows that they play to the whistle.

7. Manziel seems much more instinctive than Wilson.

8. Wilson is better at taking what the defense gives to him. Great play action QB. (I daresay he would have thrived in Kubiak's system).

9. Manziel has a habit of hitting his receivers in stride on passes longer than 20 yards. Wilson's pinpoint accuracy range is the short intermediate game. Wilson has a much more regular throwing motion. Manziel is unorthodox but as accurate as he is with it, it's difficult to project whether this will be a positive or a negative in the pros. I lean to negative. Needs to work on throwing motion.

10. In my opinion, Manziel played in a more difficult conference. Not looking to start a "is the SEC the best?" debate, just my opinion.

11. Manziel forces more passes than Wilson does. He also has a habit of forcing passes to Mike Evans, but like Matt Stafford and Megatron, when you have a weapon who can go up and get it 99% of the time, you do it.

12. Manziel has the wow factor. He finds ways to make plays when you think there's absolutely nothing there.

13. Both quarterbacks are good in the 4th quarter. I would trust both of them with the game on the line with 2 minutes and down 7.

14.Both quarterbacks had good receivers in their best years. Wilson had Toon, Abbrederis, and even Montee Ball was a good receiver out of the backfield. Manziel had Swope his first year, Evans his second. Ben Malena was solid out of the backfield as well.

15. Different systems. Wisconsin and A&M offenses are different. Though Manziel had solid dependable running backs, for whatever reason Clarence McKinney (who is no longer calling plays, thank goodness) refused to hand the ball off.


At the end of the day, I still stand by my statements. Manziel has more moments where you go "oh wow". He's the playmaker out of the two. The difference is Wilson is the more level headed and prototypical in terms of what you look for in a QB of the two. He will hang in the pocket longer and look to use his arm more than his feet, while Manziel is much more paranoid in the pocket. I would have graded Wilson as an early second rounder (33-40 range) and Manziel as a late-mid to late first rounder (20-32). The difference is all it takes is one team to fall in love with Manziel's "oh wow" moments and disregard the risk (and make no mistake - I acknowledge the risk Manziel carries) to jump and pick him in the top 5.
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