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Carr=McNair
- Thread starter infantrycak
- Start date
Vinny
shiny happy fan
I think the conservative nature of our team has more to do with Capers than Palmer.
On Carr, year 3 is when guys like Pennington and McNair started to show they can dominate a game at times by themselves. I have my fingers crossed and look for big things. Very exciting year.
On Carr, year 3 is when guys like Pennington and McNair started to show they can dominate a game at times by themselves. I have my fingers crossed and look for big things. Very exciting year.
David Carr and Steve McNair's paths analagous? Their paths couldn't be more different. McNair entering his third year had started a grand total of 6 games. Sounds like Palmer needs to lay off the Jack Daniels.
Pennington started zero games until his third year when he came in and dominated in his first season as a starter.
Pennington started zero games until his third year when he came in and dominated in his first season as a starter.
TexasAggie
Noob
Man I never considered Carr the runner that McNair is. It must give Carr pause for thought for your coach to compare you to an elite QB. Hope Palmer has it right and this is the year we start to see it on the field in the games.
Vinny
shiny happy fan
I didn't see where Palmer is saying they have the same on-field training in years one and two. I just see where he mentions that Carr has the look of a guy who will break out in his third year...or did you read something I didn't? Pennington may have had no snaps by his third year but he was no rookie. He had 3 NFL training camps by then.aj. said:
Must have.
This is what I read: "he's taking a similar path as Steve McNair, who was a young player with the Houston Oilers. And I think that's a great analogy."
I don't see Carr and McNair "taking a similar path" in anything or see what McNair (or Pennington did for that matter) in their first two years as analagous to Carr's situation in any case other than they were/are all about the same age when they either started games or sat on the sideline watching. Carr has much more game experience at the same point in his career as either McNair or Pennington. I see Carr and Troy Aikman on the same path in their first two seasons in terms of production and experience and I can only hope that Carr stays on that path.
This is what I read: "he's taking a similar path as Steve McNair, who was a young player with the Houston Oilers. And I think that's a great analogy."
I don't see Carr and McNair "taking a similar path" in anything or see what McNair (or Pennington did for that matter) in their first two years as analagous to Carr's situation in any case other than they were/are all about the same age when they either started games or sat on the sideline watching. Carr has much more game experience at the same point in his career as either McNair or Pennington. I see Carr and Troy Aikman on the same path in their first two seasons in terms of production and experience and I can only hope that Carr stays on that path.
Entering their third seasons Pennington had zero snaps as an NFL QB and Carr has what 1,500? That's even a more divergent path than McNair and Carr.
I can comprehend english. Thanks.
The only thing that's analagous might be IF Carr has his breakout in his third year.... but when one QB has something like 27 starts in two seasons and the other has 6 (and the other has 0) I can safely say they haven't been on the same path. If Carr is smart, he will find the path that McNair found in year three and follow it, but up until now their careers couldn't have been more different in their first two seasons.
The only thing that's analagous might be IF Carr has his breakout in his third year.... but when one QB has something like 27 starts in two seasons and the other has 6 (and the other has 0) I can safely say they haven't been on the same path. If Carr is smart, he will find the path that McNair found in year three and follow it, but up until now their careers couldn't have been more different in their first two seasons.
Now that is an excellent analogy. Aikman came into the league with an expansion like talent base surrounding him. In a matter of 3 seasons, the talent improved to the level of a playoff team. We know what happened after that. Does Carr have the type of talent around him that Aikman had in year 3? I don't know. Possibly. Seems like a lot of people, including Palmer, think this is the season Carr breaks out.aj. said:
Aikman's 1st 3 seasons
1989 52.9% 1749 yards 9 TDs 18 INTs 55.7 QB Rat (11 games)
1990 56.6% 2579 yards 11 TDs 18 INTs 66.6 QB Rat
1991 65.3% 2754 yards 11 TDs 10 INTs 86.7 QB Rat (12 games)
Carr's 1st 3 seasons
2002 52.5% 2592 yards 9 TDs 15 INTs 62.8 QB Rat
2003 56.6% 2013 yards 9 TDs 13 INTs 69.5 QB Rat (12 games)
2004 ??????
Don't be fooled by Aikman's TD total in '91, it was a breakout year. He led Dallas to some big wins and made the Pro Bowl.
BornOrange
Rookie
Aikman was in the Pro Bowl with only 11 TD's???
I bet it was a weak year for NFC QB's, or a lot of them decided not to go to the Pro Bowl.
I bet it was a weak year for NFC QB's, or a lot of them decided not to go to the Pro Bowl.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
[Edit--ok quicksdraw magraw beat me. Anyway this set uncludes the yards per attempt as well]
The Carr/Aikman comparison is interesting:
Troy Aikman
David Carr
So if Carr is to progress as Aikman did it may not show up in a ton of TD's or yardage but will show up in a lot fewer INT's, a higher passing percentage and higher yards per attempt. Pre-injury last year, Carr's passing percentage was actually close to 60% and his ypa were at 7.5 so he was headed down that path--his INT rate was still unacceptable but the ratio was better than the post-injury rate. Do agree that Carr is far more mobile than a lot of people credit him with. Going to be a fun season to watch.
The Carr/Aikman comparison is interesting:
Troy Aikman
David Carr
So if Carr is to progress as Aikman did it may not show up in a ton of TD's or yardage but will show up in a lot fewer INT's, a higher passing percentage and higher yards per attempt. Pre-injury last year, Carr's passing percentage was actually close to 60% and his ypa were at 7.5 so he was headed down that path--his INT rate was still unacceptable but the ratio was better than the post-injury rate. Do agree that Carr is far more mobile than a lot of people credit him with. Going to be a fun season to watch.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
BornOrange said:
First, take note that he only played 12 games that year. Second, take a gander at the completion percentage--65.3%. Exactly two QB's beat that last year--Manning 67% and Favre 65.5%. In 2002 that would have put him in 4th spot. The pro-bowl shouldn't be just about yards or TD's but about being an effective QB--Aikman was definitely that.
Combine that kind of passing percentage with Emmitt Smith and you don't need huge #'s of TD's to have a great football team.
The tight end was a big reason for that completion percentage. That was the coming out year for Smith, Irvin, Novacek, and Aikman as a group.
Carr has a real o-line and the weapons around him to succeed. Let's see what he can do with it. I can live with a mid-50's completion percentage if he could just reverse the TD/Int thingy.
Looks like Mark Rypien and Chris Miller were the two other NFC Pro Bowlers that year.
Carr has a real o-line and the weapons around him to succeed. Let's see what he can do with it. I can live with a mid-50's completion percentage if he could just reverse the TD/Int thingy.
Looks like Mark Rypien and Chris Miller were the two other NFC Pro Bowlers that year.
Hervoyel
BUENO!
aj. said:
True the details of their careers don't match up. One sat on the bench for a while and the other started from the day he walked in the door. I think Palmer meant that Carr will start living up to his potential in his third year and I guess (cause I wasn't watching) McNair started to live up to his about the same time.
He could have said it better though. They really have had very different careers so far.
I think much of Carr's success this year (and the whole O unit for that matter)
will once again be based on how quickly the OL jells. We may have more individual talent there, but only 2 guys are stating at their respective positions from last year and we've got a new blocking scheme to digest.
The other components are there. AJ has the potential to be great like the Cowboy's WR from Miami. D.Davis is very comparable to E.Smith (except in the all important durability department). I don't think it's out of line to compare Davis to Smith, but then I never thought Smith was a great player like M.Irwin and Aikman. He just had the good fortune to play on great teams.
I digress - sorry 'bout that.
will once again be based on how quickly the OL jells. We may have more individual talent there, but only 2 guys are stating at their respective positions from last year and we've got a new blocking scheme to digest.
The other components are there. AJ has the potential to be great like the Cowboy's WR from Miami. D.Davis is very comparable to E.Smith (except in the all important durability department). I don't think it's out of line to compare Davis to Smith, but then I never thought Smith was a great player like M.Irwin and Aikman. He just had the good fortune to play on great teams.
I digress - sorry 'bout that.
Emmitt Smith was a great player.
Sure he had the team behind him but there is also the argument that he is the one that carried the others.
I think it was a great combination of all of them complimenting the other and that played out in championships.
But Emmitt was a great player in his heyday.
And certainly the Texans are headed in the right direction with the offensive weapons they are drafting.
Sure he had the team behind him but there is also the argument that he is the one that carried the others.
I think it was a great combination of all of them complimenting the other and that played out in championships.
But Emmitt was a great player in his heyday.
And certainly the Texans are headed in the right direction with the offensive weapons they are drafting.
El Tejano
Hall of Fame
Well if there is anyone who says they can tell Carr will have a break out year, I would like to hear it coming from Palmer. When it comes to QBs, Palmer knows what he is talking about.
As for the Mcnair comparison, I think he is referring more to his ability to make decisions. Mcnair used to run on almost every pass play. Every now and then you would see him make a good throw but he would be very tentive and then just make plays on athletic ability alone. Now he knows his offense and you see him being more patient. He might be saying Carr is looking more like that now.
As for the Mcnair comparison, I think he is referring more to his ability to make decisions. Mcnair used to run on almost every pass play. Every now and then you would see him make a good throw but he would be very tentive and then just make plays on athletic ability alone. Now he knows his offense and you see him being more patient. He might be saying Carr is looking more like that now.
rittenhouserobz
Veteran
I think that Carr will be more patient with better blocking. He could not afford to be patient last year. The blocking just wasn't there. With Wade and Bruener added to the mix, and a new blocking scheme I would have to say these are indications that we are improving the offensive side of the ball. Not to mention Carr will be getting that 1-2 seconds more this year. I see him finding his 2nd and 3rd recieves by week 5. That should be enough time for the OL to get comfortable. Until that point though I would expect some blown plays.
A Texan said:
The Cowboys were essentially an expansion team in 89 when they finished 1-15. Ah yes...the good old days... Anyway, Paul Palmer was their leading rusher with 446 yards - Kelvin Martin was the leading receiver with 46-644-2, Aikman was beaten to a pulp that year ala Carr (Walsh played in a few games too) ... a fair analogy I would say.
I think it's a fair comparison. The Cowboys took their lumps with a new coach, new QB, new everything basically.
But you believe in your system, your players get some hard knocks experience and learn how to win and with some breaks in the injury department you can develop a championship team.
The Cowboys believed in Jimmy Johnson, Aikman, Irvin and Smith started rolling, the defense was good and it all worked.
I think Carr will start to shine this year, the defense should be improved and they have a fine coach who will get the maximum out of them. And with injury breaks you have the basis of a good team.
This is the best division though. Everybody comes to play. All you can do is play each game and see what happens.
But you believe in your system, your players get some hard knocks experience and learn how to win and with some breaks in the injury department you can develop a championship team.
The Cowboys believed in Jimmy Johnson, Aikman, Irvin and Smith started rolling, the defense was good and it all worked.
I think Carr will start to shine this year, the defense should be improved and they have a fine coach who will get the maximum out of them. And with injury breaks you have the basis of a good team.
This is the best division though. Everybody comes to play. All you can do is play each game and see what happens.
I'm bothered by Carr's TD/Int ratio as well, but I keep flashing back to several 'desperation' attempts that ended up being picked off. Sans those "chuck it and pray" throws, Carr has definitlely made great strides.
It's a shame there weren't more TDs too, but it's not #8's fault when he hits 'em in stride and they drop it.
It's a shame there weren't more TDs too, but it's not #8's fault when he hits 'em in stride and they drop it.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
I very much want to see Carr's INT's go down as well, but to some degree this is a microwave society complaint. Terry Bradshaw did not throw less INT's than TD's until his 6th season. Don't hang your hat on one stat.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
aj. said:OK then, I want to see more TDs than Ints, a better rate of 3rd down conversions, better pocket awareness and movement (shuffle), and an ability to progress through reads without locking on...[not down on Carr by any means - just suggestions for improvement]
And you are correct on all those areas for improvement. Carr made much more improvement statistically and realisticlly last year pre-injury than his overall stats showed. My personnal bar for improvement judging Carr's performance this year is besting those pre-injury stats. If that happens, he could have a very Aikman like third year--not a flashy offense, but an efficient one.
My point about Bradshaw was solely to illustrate that people are more impatient nowadays. Look at his first three seasons and a lot of folks nowadays would have discarded him.
I guess I can't dismiss the Ints so easily regardless of fault. It's things like the three ints returned for TDs that bother me a little (the one in NO was in garbage time but that really doesn't matter to me)...and then there was the one on the opening drive of the second half against KC when we were still in the game...and the one by Rocky Boiman early in the second half at TEN when the game was still close....and the one that was tipped at the LOS at Cincy when the outcome of the game was still in doubt.....and the one on the opening drive of the Ten game here in Dec ... and especially the one late in the game against Indy here in Week 17 with the score tied, the one deep in our teritory that set up Vanderjagt's winning FG.......those are the ones that bother me a little. None were Hail Mary's and all couldn't possibly be the fault of the receiver - maybe some were. Ints happen, sure, but throwing out the stat for a minute, it seems kind of natural to want to see more TD passes from your QB than Ints doesn't it?
Agree. Carr showed marked improvement compared to '02 in game management/leadership, apparent confidence level, sack avoidance, to mention a few.
I really believe that Carr has all the tools to be a top NFL QB.
In particular to me he's tough, smart, and a team player.
And physically nobody can question his skills.
I, along with others here, am looking for more from him this year and I think he'll make that next step.
I think physically that he's probably about Aikman's size and I would think has the stronger arm. If I remember right Troy always got criticized for his deep passes. Troy took some time. It's such a hard position.
Great comments from all.
In particular to me he's tough, smart, and a team player.
And physically nobody can question his skills.
I, along with others here, am looking for more from him this year and I think he'll make that next step.
I think physically that he's probably about Aikman's size and I would think has the stronger arm. If I remember right Troy always got criticized for his deep passes. Troy took some time. It's such a hard position.
Great comments from all.
Hervoyel
BUENO!
Just a small note on all those interceptions. I don't really know the numbers but I swear I don't recall ever seeing so many picks off of deflected passes off of the intended receiver. In the first two years it seemed like no game was complete without at least one scary deflection heading in the direction of a defender.
I'm looking forward to seeing those continue to decrease. It seemed like there were more of them in 2002 than 2003. Hopefully we don't see nearly as many in 2004.
I'm looking forward to seeing those continue to decrease. It seemed like there were more of them in 2002 than 2003. Hopefully we don't see nearly as many in 2004.
Lucky said:
yes, the '04 Houston Texans DO have the talent to take the step into the playoffs this year, Aikman, Irvin, & Smith = Carr, Johnson, & Davis, or will by the end of this season, and Capers = '91 boys offensive style
Davis will get better conditioning training, now that he is the designated starting RB, and injuries will diminish
TexansFanatic
Extremist
I agree that comparing the expansion franchise Houston Texans to the rebuilding franchise Dallas Cowboys of the early nineties is an excellent analogy. If the parallels continue, we should win just enough games this season to make the playoffs and get bounced right away. Next year we should win 11 games or so and advance a litte further in the playoffs. Our fifth season should see us winning 13 games, getting home field advantage, and going all the way to a blowout Super Bowl win........Works for me anyway.
Mistril48
Rookie
In regard to interceptions, I think you should be aware of them, but there are a lot of factors that affect interceptions, like o-line, route running, play calling, tips, etc ... it's not always that the quarterback didn't see the defender.aj. said:
In last year's Superbowl, only two quarterbacks played the game and only one of those two threw an interception. What happended to him. They gave him the MVP.
In a playoff game against the Rams, the most important game of the year for the Packers, Favre threw 6 interceptions. The result, we have to hear announcers constantly say "If I needed one quarterback to win one game, I'd take Brett Favre." Guess what. That playoff game was one game.
In regard to third down conversions, I can't quickly put my hands on the statistic, but what was Brady's third down conversion rate in the Superbowl against the Rams. Not good and yet another MVP.
I agree with you that it would be great if Carr threw more touchdowns and less interceptions and the offense had a better third down conversion rate. I think there are lots of reasons to believe that will happen this year.
Cataloged for your entertainment:
1. NO 4th (10-24) 1st down@NO49 (5 sacks prior to pick)
2. NO 4th (10-24) 2nd down@HOU36 (TD, Miller tipped pass)
3. KC 3rd (7-14) 3rd down@KC39 (AJ didn't make a play on the ball)
4. KC 4th (7-35) 3rd down@HOU26 (TD, Carr pulled)
5. JAX 2nd (14-10) 3rd down@JAX45
6. TEN 2nd (0-14) 1st down@TEN41
7. TEN 4th (10-31) 1st down@HOU42 (TD)
8. TEN 4th (17-38) 1st down@TEN 8 (Carr's only Redzone turnover)
9. CIN 4th (27-34) 1st down@HOU14 (Only 2nd pass of 4th Q)
10. ATL 3rd (17-7) 3rd down@HOU37 (Tipped screen pass, bad shoulder)
11. TEN 3rd (3-10) 3rd down@TEN41
12. TEN 4th (24-27) 1st down@HOU37 (17 seconds left in game)
13. IND 4th (17-10) 3rd down@HOU10 (Worst INT of the Year by Carr)
Not sure why everyone wants to tie TD passes to INT's. They aren't really related. TDs usually occur in the red zone, where the Texans were fewer times than any team other than the Raiders. In 28 red zone passing attempts, Carr threw 4 TD's & 1 INT. If the Texans can get into the redzone more often this season, I expect Carr's TD numbers to go up because he is very efficent in that area.
1. NO 4th (10-24) 1st down@NO49 (5 sacks prior to pick)
2. NO 4th (10-24) 2nd down@HOU36 (TD, Miller tipped pass)
3. KC 3rd (7-14) 3rd down@KC39 (AJ didn't make a play on the ball)
4. KC 4th (7-35) 3rd down@HOU26 (TD, Carr pulled)
5. JAX 2nd (14-10) 3rd down@JAX45
6. TEN 2nd (0-14) 1st down@TEN41
7. TEN 4th (10-31) 1st down@HOU42 (TD)
8. TEN 4th (17-38) 1st down@TEN 8 (Carr's only Redzone turnover)
9. CIN 4th (27-34) 1st down@HOU14 (Only 2nd pass of 4th Q)
10. ATL 3rd (17-7) 3rd down@HOU37 (Tipped screen pass, bad shoulder)
11. TEN 3rd (3-10) 3rd down@TEN41
12. TEN 4th (24-27) 1st down@HOU37 (17 seconds left in game)
13. IND 4th (17-10) 3rd down@HOU10 (Worst INT of the Year by Carr)
Not sure why everyone wants to tie TD passes to INT's. They aren't really related. TDs usually occur in the red zone, where the Texans were fewer times than any team other than the Raiders. In 28 red zone passing attempts, Carr threw 4 TD's & 1 INT. If the Texans can get into the redzone more often this season, I expect Carr's TD numbers to go up because he is very efficent in that area.
For many years, I've seen TD/Int ratio as one of several generally accepted performance metrics for quarterbacks. I guess over the years it's become somewhat of a benchmark. I don't have any numbers in front of me at the moment but I would guess that most successful QBs throughout modern history have ratios higher than 1.0 in years that their team was successful. But like many have pointed out, the ratio is not totally dependent on the QB's performance even though he usually wears the good or bad label that goes along with it.
Huh? Nick Cafardo is one of the most respected football writers in the country. The reason being is that he has football connections across the country and calls them on a regular basis. One of them would be Chris Palmer being that Chris was the QB coach in New England for 2 years. That Palmer would tell the guy where he was vacationing should lead you to assume it's a direct quote.Lazarus said:
Calling football people across the nation. Gathering information. Presenting it to your readers on a regular basis. This is something our local rag should take note of and try sometime.
TheOgre
All Pro
I think the two most important QB stats are Yards per Attempt and INT %. Completion percentage and TD percent shouldn't even be a factor in the QB rating.
TD percent is more a function of the system, as opposed to the player. A team that prefers to rush it in for a TD will have a lower count than one that uses play action passes a lot.
Counting yards per attempt AND completion percentage seems redundant. Lets take two QB's. QB1 completes 12 of 20 passes for 100 yards (100/20 = 5.0 YPA). QB2 completes 8 of 20 passes for 100 yards (100/20 = 5.0 YPA). In both cases the QB went back to pass 20 times and totalled 100 yards. Does it really matter that one did it with shorter passes and the other threw it farther? IMO completion percentage needs to be thrown out if you are using yards per attempt.
TD percent is more a function of the system, as opposed to the player. A team that prefers to rush it in for a TD will have a lower count than one that uses play action passes a lot.
Counting yards per attempt AND completion percentage seems redundant. Lets take two QB's. QB1 completes 12 of 20 passes for 100 yards (100/20 = 5.0 YPA). QB2 completes 8 of 20 passes for 100 yards (100/20 = 5.0 YPA). In both cases the QB went back to pass 20 times and totalled 100 yards. Does it really matter that one did it with shorter passes and the other threw it farther? IMO completion percentage needs to be thrown out if you are using yards per attempt.
They probably feel it's important to consider more than just yards per attempt in the equation. In your example, a 40% passer looks equal to a 60% passer if you only consider yards per attempt. The question is then, would you rather have a QB who connects for longer plays albeit less frequently, over a QB who connects at a much higher rate but for shorter plays. Who knows what they were thinking when they developed the algorithm.
TheOgre
All Pro
aj. said:
Like I said, that is my opinion. YPA innately has completion percentage factored into it (YPA = Yards per completion X Completion percent). It just seems to count it twice using YPA and completion percentage in the formula. Personally, I don't see a huge difference in a guy that completes 8 of 20 passes for 100 yards and another that completes 12 of 20 for 100 yards. Indeed it is a personal preference whether someone likes the former or the latter passer.
I think YPA and INT percent have it covered.
look you can talk about stats all you want...we want carr to have more td's than int's...well no duh...you can talk about every other stat a QB has but that's not what makes a great qb different from the ok qb's...a great qb is a guy who doesn't care if he throws an int or two...he doesn't care about the stats...he only cares about winning...and great qb's win...not because they are the most talented...the most gifted...or because they have the best players around them...it's because deep down inside them there is that small backyard dog who didn't back down from a fight...deep down inside of the greats there is a fighter who wins...a great qb doesn't care about the play before or the play after...only the play now...i see that quality in carr...i think he's done a lot of growing these last two years...and i think this year might just be a break-out year for him...although i have a feeling it won't be til next...bottom-line...stats don't really tell you everything about a player...you have to see how he handles himself when the team is down...can he come back to win it or not...that's what made elway great...that's what'll make carr great
Ibar_Harry
All Pro
The two great heart players I watched play were Jonny U and Montana. And yes, when they walked into the huddle everyone paid attention. They knew there was magic in those arms and minds. They were fighters. I would say don't forget old George Blanda either.
