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Old 06-24-2004   #41
Mistril48
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Originally Posted by aj.
OK then, I want to see more TDs than Ints, a better rate of 3rd down conversions ...
In regard to interceptions, I think you should be aware of them, but there are a lot of factors that affect interceptions, like o-line, route running, play calling, tips, etc ... it's not always that the quarterback didn't see the defender.

In last year's Superbowl, only two quarterbacks played the game and only one of those two threw an interception. What happended to him. They gave him the MVP.

In a playoff game against the Rams, the most important game of the year for the Packers, Favre threw 6 interceptions. The result, we have to hear announcers constantly say "If I needed one quarterback to win one game, I'd take Brett Favre." Guess what. That playoff game was one game.

In regard to third down conversions, I can't quickly put my hands on the statistic, but what was Brady's third down conversion rate in the Superbowl against the Rams. Not good and yet another MVP.

I agree with you that it would be great if Carr threw more touchdowns and less interceptions and the offense had a better third down conversion rate. I think there are lots of reasons to believe that will happen this year.
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Old 06-24-2004   #42
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Default Carr's '03 Interceptions

Cataloged for your entertainment:

1. NO 4th (10-24) 1st down@NO49 (5 sacks prior to pick)
2. NO 4th (10-24) 2nd down@HOU36 (TD, Miller tipped pass)
3. KC 3rd (7-14) 3rd down@KC39 (AJ didn't make a play on the ball)
4. KC 4th (7-35) 3rd down@HOU26 (TD, Carr pulled)
5. JAX 2nd (14-10) 3rd down@JAX45
6. TEN 2nd (0-14) 1st down@TEN41
7. TEN 4th (10-31) 1st down@HOU42 (TD)
8. TEN 4th (17-38) 1st down@TEN 8 (Carr's only Redzone turnover)
9. CIN 4th (27-34) 1st down@HOU14 (Only 2nd pass of 4th Q)
10. ATL 3rd (17-7) 3rd down@HOU37 (Tipped screen pass, bad shoulder)
11. TEN 3rd (3-10) 3rd down@TEN41
12. TEN 4th (24-27) 1st down@HOU37 (17 seconds left in game)
13. IND 4th (17-10) 3rd down@HOU10 (Worst INT of the Year by Carr)

Not sure why everyone wants to tie TD passes to INT's. They aren't really related. TDs usually occur in the red zone, where the Texans were fewer times than any team other than the Raiders. In 28 red zone passing attempts, Carr threw 4 TD's & 1 INT. If the Texans can get into the redzone more often this season, I expect Carr's TD numbers to go up because he is very efficent in that area.
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Old 06-24-2004   #43
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Not sure why everyone wants to tie TD passes to INT's. They aren't really related.
For many years, I've seen TD/Int ratio as one of several generally accepted performance metrics for quarterbacks. I guess over the years it's become somewhat of a benchmark. I don't have any numbers in front of me at the moment but I would guess that most successful QBs throughout modern history have ratios higher than 1.0 in years that their team was successful. But like many have pointed out, the ratio is not totally dependent on the QB's performance even though he usually wears the good or bad label that goes along with it.
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Old 06-25-2004   #44
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Originally Posted by Lazarus
...As for the alleged quote taken from boston.com which began this thread, itís not directly attributed, meaning while it says Palmer said it, it doesnít inform the reader who Palmer was alleged to have been speaking to nor who first reported it. This is an extremely poor example of journalism and if certain criteria not met, illegal...
Huh? Nick Cafardo is one of the most respected football writers in the country. The reason being is that he has football connections across the country and calls them on a regular basis. One of them would be Chris Palmer being that Chris was the QB coach in New England for 2 years. That Palmer would tell the guy where he was vacationing should lead you to assume it's a direct quote.

Calling football people across the nation. Gathering information. Presenting it to your readers on a regular basis. This is something our local rag should take note of and try sometime.
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Old 06-28-2004   #45
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I think the two most important QB stats are Yards per Attempt and INT %. Completion percentage and TD percent shouldn't even be a factor in the QB rating.

TD percent is more a function of the system, as opposed to the player. A team that prefers to rush it in for a TD will have a lower count than one that uses play action passes a lot.

Counting yards per attempt AND completion percentage seems redundant. Lets take two QB's. QB1 completes 12 of 20 passes for 100 yards (100/20 = 5.0 YPA). QB2 completes 8 of 20 passes for 100 yards (100/20 = 5.0 YPA). In both cases the QB went back to pass 20 times and totalled 100 yards. Does it really matter that one did it with shorter passes and the other threw it farther? IMO completion percentage needs to be thrown out if you are using yards per attempt.
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Old 06-28-2004   #46
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They probably feel it's important to consider more than just yards per attempt in the equation. In your example, a 40% passer looks equal to a 60% passer if you only consider yards per attempt. The question is then, would you rather have a QB who connects for longer plays albeit less frequently, over a QB who connects at a much higher rate but for shorter plays. Who knows what they were thinking when they developed the algorithm.

Last edited by aj.; 06-28-2004 at 12:50 PM.
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Old 06-28-2004   #47
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Originally Posted by aj.
They probably feel it's important to consider more than just yards per attempt in the equation. In your example, a 40% passer looks equal to a 60% passer if you only consider yards per attempt. The question is then, would you rather have a QB who connects for longer plays albeit less frequently, over a QB who connects at a much higher rate but for shorter plays. Who knows what they were thinking when they developed the algorithm.
Like I said, that is my opinion. YPA innately has completion percentage factored into it (YPA = Yards per completion X Completion percent). It just seems to count it twice using YPA and completion percentage in the formula. Personally, I don't see a huge difference in a guy that completes 8 of 20 passes for 100 yards and another that completes 12 of 20 for 100 yards. Indeed it is a personal preference whether someone likes the former or the latter passer.

I think YPA and INT percent have it covered.
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Old 06-28-2004   #48
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look you can talk about stats all you want...we want carr to have more td's than int's...well no duh...you can talk about every other stat a QB has but that's not what makes a great qb different from the ok qb's...a great qb is a guy who doesn't care if he throws an int or two...he doesn't care about the stats...he only cares about winning...and great qb's win...not because they are the most talented...the most gifted...or because they have the best players around them...it's because deep down inside them there is that small backyard dog who didn't back down from a fight...deep down inside of the greats there is a fighter who wins...a great qb doesn't care about the play before or the play after...only the play now...i see that quality in carr...i think he's done a lot of growing these last two years...and i think this year might just be a break-out year for him...although i have a feeling it won't be til next...bottom-line...stats don't really tell you everything about a player...you have to see how he handles himself when the team is down...can he come back to win it or not...that's what made elway great...that's what'll make carr great
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Old 06-28-2004   #49
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The two great heart players I watched play were Jonny U and Montana. And yes, when they walked into the huddle everyone paid attention. They knew there was magic in those arms and minds. They were fighters. I would say don't forget old George Blanda either.
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Old 06-28-2004   #50
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Originally Posted by Ibar_Harry
The two great heart players I watched play were Jonny U and Montana. And yes, when they walked into the huddle everyone paid attention. They knew there was magic in those arms and minds. They were fighters. I would say don't forget old George Blanda either.
Bobby Layne never lost a game...time just ran out.
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Old 06-29-2004   #51
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Originally Posted by TheOgre
I think the two most important QB stats are Yards per Attempt and INT %.
The two most important QB stats are WINS and LOSSES... I know that sounds simplistic but each QB is asked to do different things in order to help his team win. I thought that Jake Delhomme was one of the 5 best QBs last year. Also, I think Roger Staubach was a better QB than Danny White, though statistics don't bare that out. A QB is successful if he is the leader of the offense and can effectively execute the gameplan- plus make the occasional big play that is often the difference in close games.
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Old 06-29-2004   #52
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I think that's understood. A few of us were just kicking around the QB rating system, fwiw, not that it's a bottom line indicator of anything in the big picture.

Look at all of Fran Tarkenton and Warren Moon's stats (great careers and a million yards passing but no rings between them) and compare that with a guy like Tom Brady. After watching football for many years, I'll take a guy like that, i.e., capable leader, capable QB, working in a system that fits their strengths and limitations, over a stats monster any day.

But, certain stats are indicators of success. I wonder if there's been a QB in recent history who's taken their team to a conference championship while throwing more int's than td's or by completing less than x % of their pass attemts...

Last edited by aj.; 06-29-2004 at 06:45 AM.
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