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Old 06-22-2004   #21
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Good point on the Aikman/Carr stats...about 1991, didn't he pretty much just have to get the team some where in the redzone and hand the ball to Emmitt? That's why stats are deceptive.
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Old 06-22-2004   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aj.
David Carr and Steve McNair's paths analagous? Their paths couldn't be more different. McNair entering his third year had started a grand total of 6 games. Sounds like Palmer needs to lay off the Jack Daniels.

Pennington started zero games until his third year when he came in and dominated in his first season as a starter.

True the details of their careers don't match up. One sat on the bench for a while and the other started from the day he walked in the door. I think Palmer meant that Carr will start living up to his potential in his third year and I guess (cause I wasn't watching) McNair started to live up to his about the same time.

He could have said it better though. They really have had very different careers so far.
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Old 06-22-2004   #23
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I don't think it's fair to compare Carr's development with anybody else unless they too started out with an expansion team in their first year.
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Old 06-22-2004   #24
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I think much of Carr's success this year (and the whole O unit for that matter)
will once again be based on how quickly the OL jells. We may have more individual talent there, but only 2 guys are stating at their respective positions from last year and we've got a new blocking scheme to digest.
The other components are there. AJ has the potential to be great like the Cowboy's WR from Miami. D.Davis is very comparable to E.Smith (except in the all important durability department). I don't think it's out of line to compare Davis to Smith, but then I never thought Smith was a great player like M.Irwin and Aikman. He just had the good fortune to play on great teams.
I digress - sorry 'bout that.
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Old 06-22-2004   #25
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Emmitt Smith was a great player.

Sure he had the team behind him but there is also the argument that he is the one that carried the others.

I think it was a great combination of all of them complimenting the other and that played out in championships.

But Emmitt was a great player in his heyday.

And certainly the Texans are headed in the right direction with the offensive weapons they are drafting.

Last edited by WWJD; 06-22-2004 at 12:55 PM.
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Old 06-22-2004   #26
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Well if there is anyone who says they can tell Carr will have a break out year, I would like to hear it coming from Palmer. When it comes to QBs, Palmer knows what he is talking about.

As for the Mcnair comparison, I think he is referring more to his ability to make decisions. Mcnair used to run on almost every pass play. Every now and then you would see him make a good throw but he would be very tentive and then just make plays on athletic ability alone. Now he knows his offense and you see him being more patient. He might be saying Carr is looking more like that now.
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Old 06-22-2004   #27
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I think that Carr will be more patient with better blocking. He could not afford to be patient last year. The blocking just wasn't there. With Wade and Bruener added to the mix, and a new blocking scheme I would have to say these are indications that we are improving the offensive side of the ball. Not to mention Carr will be getting that 1-2 seconds more this year. I see him finding his 2nd and 3rd recieves by week 5. That should be enough time for the OL to get comfortable. Until that point though I would expect some blown plays.
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Old 06-22-2004   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by A Texan
I don't think it's fair to compare Carr's development with anybody else unless they too started out with an expansion team in their first year.
The Cowboys were essentially an expansion team in 89 when they finished 1-15. Ah yes...the good old days... Anyway, Paul Palmer was their leading rusher with 446 yards - Kelvin Martin was the leading receiver with 46-644-2, Aikman was beaten to a pulp that year ala Carr (Walsh played in a few games too) ... a fair analogy I would say.
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Old 06-22-2004   #29
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I still remember the joke that was going around in 89.

Did you hear the Cowboys are getting a Japanese head coach? His name is Win One Soon.
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Old 06-22-2004   #30
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I think it's a fair comparison. The Cowboys took their lumps with a new coach, new QB, new everything basically.

But you believe in your system, your players get some hard knocks experience and learn how to win and with some breaks in the injury department you can develop a championship team.

The Cowboys believed in Jimmy Johnson, Aikman, Irvin and Smith started rolling, the defense was good and it all worked.

I think Carr will start to shine this year, the defense should be improved and they have a fine coach who will get the maximum out of them. And with injury breaks you have the basis of a good team.

This is the best division though. Everybody comes to play. All you can do is play each game and see what happens.
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Old 06-23-2004   #31
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I'm bothered by Carr's TD/Int ratio as well, but I keep flashing back to several 'desperation' attempts that ended up being picked off. Sans those "chuck it and pray" throws, Carr has definitlely made great strides.

It's a shame there weren't more TDs too, but it's not #8's fault when he hits 'em in stride and they drop it.
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Old 06-23-2004   #32
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I very much want to see Carr's INT's go down as well, but to some degree this is a microwave society complaint. Terry Bradshaw did not throw less INT's than TD's until his 6th season. Don't hang your hat on one stat.
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Old 06-23-2004   #33
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OK then, I want to see more TDs than Ints, a better rate of 3rd down conversions, better pocket awareness and movement (shuffle), and an ability to progress through reads without locking on... [not down on Carr by any means - just suggestions for improvement]
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Old 06-23-2004   #34
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I wouldn't worry much about interceptions.

Often it's the receiver's fault or a Hail Mary but that is not reflected in the stats.
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Old 06-23-2004   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aj.
OK then, I want to see more TDs than Ints, a better rate of 3rd down conversions, better pocket awareness and movement (shuffle), and an ability to progress through reads without locking on... [not down on Carr by any means - just suggestions for improvement]
And you are correct on all those areas for improvement. Carr made much more improvement statistically and realisticlly last year pre-injury than his overall stats showed. My personnal bar for improvement judging Carr's performance this year is besting those pre-injury stats. If that happens, he could have a very Aikman like third year--not a flashy offense, but an efficient one.

My point about Bradshaw was solely to illustrate that people are more impatient nowadays. Look at his first three seasons and a lot of folks nowadays would have discarded him.
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Old 06-24-2004   #36
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Quote:
I wouldn't worry much about interceptions.

Often it's the receiver's fault or a Hail Mary but that is not reflected in the stats
I guess I can't dismiss the Ints so easily regardless of fault. It's things like the three ints returned for TDs that bother me a little (the one in NO was in garbage time but that really doesn't matter to me)...and then there was the one on the opening drive of the second half against KC when we were still in the game...and the one by Rocky Boiman early in the second half at TEN when the game was still close....and the one that was tipped at the LOS at Cincy when the outcome of the game was still in doubt.....and the one on the opening drive of the Ten game here in Dec ... and especially the one late in the game against Indy here in Week 17 with the score tied, the one deep in our teritory that set up Vanderjagt's winning FG.......those are the ones that bother me a little. None were Hail Mary's and all couldn't possibly be the fault of the receiver - maybe some were. Ints happen, sure, but throwing out the stat for a minute, it seems kind of natural to want to see more TD passes from your QB than Ints doesn't it?

Quote:
Carr made much more improvement statistically and realisticlly last year pre-injury than his overall stats showed
Agree. Carr showed marked improvement compared to '02 in game management/leadership, apparent confidence level, sack avoidance, to mention a few.

Last edited by aj.; 06-24-2004 at 07:20 AM.
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Old 06-24-2004   #37
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I really believe that Carr has all the tools to be a top NFL QB.

In particular to me he's tough, smart, and a team player.

And physically nobody can question his skills.

I, along with others here, am looking for more from him this year and I think he'll make that next step.

I think physically that he's probably about Aikman's size and I would think has the stronger arm. If I remember right Troy always got criticized for his deep passes. Troy took some time. It's such a hard position.

Great comments from all.
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Old 06-24-2004   #38
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Just a small note on all those interceptions. I don't really know the numbers but I swear I don't recall ever seeing so many picks off of deflected passes off of the intended receiver. In the first two years it seemed like no game was complete without at least one scary deflection heading in the direction of a defender.

I'm looking forward to seeing those continue to decrease. It seemed like there were more of them in 2002 than 2003. Hopefully we don't see nearly as many in 2004.
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Old 06-24-2004   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucky
Now that is an excellent analogy. Aikman came into the league with an expansion like talent base surrounding him. In a matter of 3 seasons, the talent improved to the level of a playoff team. We know what happened after that. Does Carr have the type of talent around him that Aikman had in year 3? I don't know. Possibly. Seems like a lot of people, including Palmer, think this is the season Carr breaks out.

Aikman's 1st 3 seasons
1989 52.9% 1749 yards 9 TDs 18 INTs 55.7 QB Rat (11 games)
1990 56.6% 2579 yards 11 TDs 18 INTs 66.6 QB Rat
1991 65.3% 2754 yards 11 TDs 10 INTs 86.7 QB Rat (12 games)

Carr's 1st 3 seasons
2002 52.5% 2592 yards 9 TDs 15 INTs 62.8 QB Rat
2003 56.6% 2013 yards 9 TDs 13 INTs 69.5 QB Rat (12 games)
2004 ??????

Don't be fooled by Aikman's TD total in '91, it was a breakout year. He led Dallas to some big wins and made the Pro Bowl.
yes, the '04 Houston Texans DO have the talent to take the step into the playoffs this year, Aikman, Irvin, & Smith = Carr, Johnson, & Davis, or will by the end of this season, and Capers = '91 boys offensive style

Davis will get better conditioning training, now that he is the designated starting RB, and injuries will diminish
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Old 06-24-2004   #40
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I agree that comparing the expansion franchise Houston Texans to the rebuilding franchise Dallas Cowboys of the early nineties is an excellent analogy. If the parallels continue, we should win just enough games this season to make the playoffs and get bounced right away. Next year we should win 11 games or so and advance a litte further in the playoffs. Our fifth season should see us winning 13 games, getting home field advantage, and going all the way to a blowout Super Bowl win........Works for me anyway.
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