Thoughts on Conner Barwin being expendable?

[drs23]

An excerpt from a piece by Rivers McCown on BRB that I found both interesting and intriguing.

What says the general wisdom here?

The Texans have a first-round replacement lined up for Barwin's departure

This has colored my thinking on the subject more than anything else. Pass rush is vitally important in the NFL, but even still, you don't see many players get drafted in the first-round primarily for their ability in sub packages. Perhaps the Texans have Brooks Reed as a disappointment in their own book and are planning for Whitney Mercilus to usurp snaps from him, but I think Occam's Razor looks at the Mercilus selection, notes that Barwin is on the last year of his deal, and draws the conclusion that Mercilus is either leverage or the long-term replacement.

The Texans have definitely worked very hard to develop quality depth, and it has showed, but between Mercilus and the preseason/blowout contributions of Bryan Braman, I think you can argue that they are deepest at outside linebacker. This lowers Barwin's relative value to the team, and gives the Texans, in my mind, more of a reason to value someone like Quin over Barwin.

Read the rest here.

[Dutchrudder]

Well, according to John Clayton, the Texans will have about 24 million in capspace next year. Now that Brown has signed for just under 9 million a year, we should have around 15 million to use before cutting any vets like Antonio, Walter or OD. To me, that's not enough to keep both Schaub and Barwin, so it will be a choice between the two. I think Schaub is more important to the team's success, so I think he will be the one staying.

Assuming Barwin has a good year and gets 10 or so sacks, he will likely get a hefty deal on the free agent market. The Texans will be fine though, thanks to the Seahawks taking Bruce Irvin. If Irvin hadn't been picked by them in the 1st, we probably wouldn't have had a shot to get Mercilus at 26. Come to think of it, we should probably send Pete Carroll a nice gift basket or something...

[SteveSlaton20]

I think $15M will be plenty. I don't think Schaub will get any more than $6-7M a year, especially with his history.

[Wolf6151]

I really like Connor Barwin and very much want him to sign an extension with the Texans but it has to be at a reasonable price for the position like we got with Brown. We have leverage with Barwin due the depth we've developed at the OLB position over the last couple years. I think he signs a reasonable contract that's good for both parties, I don't see Barwin as the me first type of player that tries to squeeze every nickle out of a team. I'm quickly gaining some confidence in Rick Smith, props to him for a job well done on the Brown deal.

[Playoffs]

I disagree with the SBNation writer. Braman is not on the level of a Reed or a Barwin. We need a quality backup like Mercilus in the rotation as our guys can get gassed going 100mph all the time, and in case of injury. Barwin is a must sign player, imo, unless he chooses to test the market and some team drops a Mario deal on him.

[Texecutioner]

Nah, I want Barwin. Pay that guy as long as it isn't out of this world.

I'd definitely pay Barwin a lot more than what I would have ever paid Mario. Not saying that Barwin deserves the money that Mario just got, but I think he is a more effective player that will continue to work harder to get better and better. You can't have enough pass rushers.

[Tailgate]

Have to play this yr out and see how Whitney does first to answer that one.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

Well, according to John Clayton, the Texans will have about 24 million in capspace next year. Now that Brown has signed for just under 9 million a year, we should have around 15 million to use before cutting any vets like Antonio, Walter or OD. To me, that's not enough to keep both Schaub and Barwin, so it will be a choice between the two. I think Schaub is more important to the team's success, so I think he will be the one staying.

Assuming Barwin has a good year and gets 10 or so sacks, he will likely get a hefty deal on the free agent market. The Texans will be fine though, thanks to the Seahawks taking Bruce Irvin. If Irvin hadn't been picked by them in the 1st, we probably wouldn't have had a shot to get Mercilus at 26. Come to think of it, we should probably send Pete Carroll a nice gift basket or something...

I'm think $15m can get both Schaub and Barwin if Barwin signs now. Big risk if he gets hurt or has an off season. Grab a good deal now that is team friendly. He knows Mercilus is sitting in background, chomping at the bit and earning praise every game. Mattis odd duck out due to health and Smith waiting until end of season. Unless Matt take them to SB & has a very good season, Yates may look like a better option. tick tick tick

[The Pencil Neck]

Guys like Kuharsky are saying that we played Brooks/Barwin too much last year and got lucky and that we really need a rotation and that's why Mercilus is so important but...

We did fine with those two guys and with Braman and Nading coming off the bench. If Mercilus steps up, I don't see why Barwin wouldn't be expendable. Especially if he's looking at getting a bigger paycheck than we can give him.

I'd love to wrap him up for a few more years, though.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

Well, according to John Clayton, the Texans will have about 24 million in capspace next year. Now that Brown has signed for just under 9 million a year, we should have around 15 million to use before cutting any vets like Antonio, Walter or OD. To me, that's not enough to keep both Schaub and Barwin, so it will be a choice between the two. I think Schaub is more important to the team's success, so I think he will be the one staying.

Assuming Barwin has a good year and gets 10 or so sacks, he will likely get a hefty deal on the free agent market. The Texans will be fine though, thanks to the Seahawks taking Bruce Irvin. If Irvin hadn't been picked by them in the 1st, we probably wouldn't have had a shot to get Mercilus at 26. Come to think of it, we should probably send Pete Carroll a nice gift basket or something...

I think Clayton's numbers are not up-to-date.

What do you make from these Spotrac numbers?

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/cap-hit/

Note that the new contract for Brown is not reflected in those figures.

It looks like we don't have any cap space for 2013.

[Playoffs]

And if I may add...

This flat cap until 2015 stuff sucks.

[Dutchrudder]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

I think Clayton's numbers are not up-to-date.

What do you make from these Spotrac numbers?

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/cap-hit/

Note that the new contract for Brown is not reflected in those figures.

It looks like we don't have any cap space for 2013.

Well the most obvious error I see in that list is that they don't account for minimum vet deals only counting 540k against the cap. They are also counting about 25 UDFA and minimum deals against that number that won't be on the team come September. Most, if not all, of those deals are not guaranteed, so that's a lot of money off the cap. If their average salary is 500k (low estimate), then that's about 12.5 million in savings once we go to a roster of 53.

I'm not quite sure about the individual numbers, but we'll see. Schaub's 8-10 million will be coming off the books, and a handful of rookie deals expire. So maybe we will have some more wiggle room. Point being though, I don't think we have the money to get both Schaub and Barwin. Add in the rookie money needed, the other expiring deals of Quin and McCain, and we will likely see some turnover next year. Can't pay everyone, so there will need to be some sacrifices.

[Corrosion]

Man , they are up against the cap .... and will be for the next few years.

Barwin , Cushing , Watt hitting the market in consecutive years = PAINFUL.

And thats not taking into account players on the opposite side of the ball ..... not to be confused witht the CB who confuses his name with Ball.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

Well the most obvious error I see in that list is that they don't account for minimum vet deals only counting 540k against the cap. They are also counting about 25 UDFA and minimum deals against that number that won't be on the team come September. Most, if not all, of those deals are not guaranteed, so that's a lot of money off the cap. If their average salary is 500k (low estimate), then that's about 12.5 million in savings once we go to a roster of 53.

I'm not quite sure about the individual numbers, but we'll see. Schaub's 8-10 million will be coming off the books, and a handful of rookie deals expire. So maybe we will have some more wiggle room. Point being though, I don't think we have the money to get both Schaub and Barwin. Add in the rookie money needed, the other expiring deals of Quin and McCain, and we will likely see some turnover next year. Can't pay everyone, so there will need to be some sacrifices.

Is there any guy on the roster that have contracts we can restructure?

[76Texan]

And it looks like Andre Johnson's cap figure will take a big jump of more than $5M in 2013-2014

[Dutchrudder]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

Is there any guy on the roster that have contracts we can restructure?

Sure, cut Antonio Smith and save 6 million in salary next year. He still gets his signing bonus, but that 6 mill could come in handy. I suppose they could extend/restructure him, but I don't know if he would do that.

Andre is going to making 10+ the next 4 years, so we could extend him and spread out some money. JJo as well, but we would need to add years to his deal. He probably wouldn't go for that due to his age, but Andre is getting old and may go for it.

[infantrycak]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

I think Clayton's numbers are not up-to-date.

What do you make from these Spotrac numbers?

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/cap-hit/

Note that the new contract for Brown is not reflected in those figures.

It looks like we don't have any cap space for 2013.

The link you gave is for this year and is not cap space. It has way more than 53 players and errors such as having Keo counted under both active players and dead money. $9 mil in dead money seems incorrect for DeMeco as well since he only got a $7.5 mil signing bonus.

[Corrosion]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

Sure, cut Antonio Smith and save 6 million in salary next year. He still gets his signing bonus, but that 6 mill could come in handy. I suppose they could extend/restructure him, but I don't know if he would do that.

Andre is going to making 10+ the next 4 years, so we could extend him and spread out some money. JJo as well, but we would need to add years to his deal. He probably wouldn't go for that due to his age, but Andre is getting old and may go for it.

I have to wonder if Antonio Smith is worth MORE than they are paying him as the leader of that DL unit ..... Watt may be the anchor but it sure seems to me that since #94 showed up the culture has changed and he's still got a few good years left IMO. Maybe he restructures for the long term forthe success of the team ?? ..... then again maybe not.

AJ ..... I could see him re-structuring his deal for the sake of the team especially if they make a deep run in the post-season. #80 has always been a team player .... and he has more $$$ than a man can spend. It boils down to "how much is a Lombardi Trophy worth" to him.

(Yes , we are talking about our Texans and a Lombardi Trophy in the same sentence.) How far we have come!!!

Jjo ... He sincerely seems to enjoy this team. I could see him re-working his deal if they are on the cusp of a championship.

I think KW will finish out his deal and there is little room to restructure .... unless one of those kiddie WR's goes bonkers.


Matt Schaub ..... If healthy is a top 8 QB in the NFL. Roast me , I said it. He's going to get $12m per.

How the Texans balance all this against the cap is beyondme.

[GP]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

Well, according to John Clayton, the Texans will have about 24 million in capspace next year. Now that Brown has signed for just under 9 million a year, we should have around 15 million to use before cutting any vets like Antonio, Walter or OD. To me, that's not enough to keep both Schaub and Barwin, so it will be a choice between the two. I think Schaub is more important to the team's success, so I think he will be the one staying.

Assuming Barwin has a good year and gets 10 or so sacks, he will likely get a hefty deal on the free agent market. The Texans will be fine though, thanks to the Seahawks taking Bruce Irvin. If Irvin hadn't been picked by them in the 1st, we probably wouldn't have had a shot to get Mercilus at 26. Come to think of it, we should probably send Pete Carroll a nice gift basket or something...

And let's send a basket to Lovie Smith for taking Shea McLellin (DE) as well.

If Mercilus is who he think he is, it was truly amazing that he fell to us.

Side note: I'm not in favor of paying Barwin rock star money. Wade is nailing his picks, has for the past two years, and will for years to come. Let's not get silly and pay one of them as if we can't find their replacement every year in the draft.

Duane Brown is way more vital to this team's success than Connor Barwin, in the grand scheme of things. And I think this plays out in many ways. Notice we're spending our big bucks on offense: Myers, Brown, Foster, AJ, etc. Wade is talent identifying' like a mo-fo, making life easy for Gary--Gary gets to just pay the guys he already has and let Wade keep making hay in the draft for our defense. A nice arrangement, IMO. Win-win.

[TexanSam]

Originally Posted by GP

Duane Brown is way more vital to this team's success than Connor Barwin, in the grand scheme of things. And I think this plays out in many ways. Notice we're spending our big bucks on offense: Myers, Brown, Foster, AJ, etc. Wade is talent identifying' like a mo-fo, making life easy for Gary--Gary gets to just pay the guys he already has and let Wade keep making hay in the draft for our defense. A nice arrangement, IMO. Win-win.

I think that will even out in the long haul. It just so happens that most of our best paid players on our offense, but there will be defensive players asking for big bucks besides Barwin once their contracts are up. Hopefully we'll be able to keep most of them, but I'm not sure Barwin will be among them. If he has another season like he did last year, then teams will definitely be lining up to give him big bucks.