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Old 3 Days Ago   #1
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Default How close were the Texans to being Super Bowl contenders?

How close were the Texans to being Super Bowl contenders?

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THE INSIDE STORY
Where NFL Nation agrees/disagrees with Pro Football Focus
by Tania Ganguli, ESPN.com

Quote:
DE J.J. Watt: Talk about a no-brainer. Watt's historic dominance will most likely lead to his...

WR DeAndre Hopkins: He took a major step forward from his rookie season, as he became...

G Brandon Brooks: For the second time in as many seasons, Brooks snagged a top...

CB Kareem Jackson: After being drafted 20th overall in 2010, Jackson struggled in his first few seasons, so much so that fans clamored for the Texans move on. They didn't and it paid off...

RB Arian Foster: Throughout the year, the Texans constantly gushed about Foster's vision, patience and the smoothness of his running style. These qualities can't be quantified by stats, which could be why PFF underrated Foster...

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick: He had one glorious outing...

WR Andre Johnson: He'll go down as one of the greatest receivers to play the game, but this season we saw...

ILB Brian Cushing: Coming off back-to-back season-ending knee injuries, it's understandable that Cushing didn't make...

S D.J. Swearinger: The Texans' 2013 second-round pick, Swearinger continued to struggle...
GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS
by Sam Monson, Pro Football Focus

Quote:
OVERALL PFF GRADE

Good News: J.J. Watt -- the best player in football, regardless of position -- is completely redefining what people thought was possible from a defensive player. He finished the season with 119 total pressures, 22 more than any other player, at any position, since PFF began tracking the stat in 2007.

Bad News: Outside of Watt, Houston doesn't have much of a pass rush. According to PFF's numbers, D-linemen not named J.J. Watt had just seven sacks and 11 QB knockdowns. OLBs Brooks Reed and Whitney Mercilus weren't much better: seven sacks and 16 knockdowns.
THE BEST, WORST VALUES
by Kevin Seifert, ESPN.com

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Best -- WR DeAndre Hopkins: As a second-year player, Hopkins earned...

Worst -- ILB Brian Cushing: After injuries to his left knee cut short his past two seasons, Cushing returned to start 14 games in 2014. But those injuries took their toll: He managed just...
GRADING THE QB
by Kevin Seifert, ESPN.com

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The Texans don't have a quarterback of the future...
Quote:
POSITIONAL NEEDS
by Tania Ganguli, ESPN.com

Pass-rusher: Watt accounted for 53.9 percent of the Texans' sacks this season and 26.5 percent of the Texans' disrupted dropbacks -- both league highs. While that speaks to Watt's dominance, it also speaks to the Texans' need for some help in that department. The Texans drafted Jadeveon Clowney first overall hoping for help there, but he only played four games due to a right knee injury, and has a long and difficult recovery from microfracture surgery ahead of him.

Receiver: Andre Johnson said this year he wishes he had DeAndre Hopkins earlier in his career. That's because two top-notch receivers are better than one -- for everyone. Life after Johnson might not be here yet, but it will be soon, and the Texans need to prepare for it rather than facing a future in which Hopkins finds himself on the island Johnson did for so many years. This year's crop of college receivers is a good one, including Alabama receiver Amari Cooper, Louisville's DeVante Parker, West Virginia's Kevin White and Oklahoma's Dorial Green-Beckham. The Texans should take advantage of that depth.

Secondary: Three of the Texans' key pending free agents are in the secondary -- safeties Danieal Manning and Kendrick Lewis and cornerback Kareem Jackson. Depending on what combination of those players the Texans retain, they'll have needs at both safety and corner. This season the team typically carried an extra DB on game days rather than an extra receiver, which makes depth here important.
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Old 3 Days Ago   #2
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Default Re: How close were the Texans to being Super Bowl contenders?

Interesting take; but I don't like how they treat each position individually equal. An above average QB would improve this team vs. an above average Full Back. If Houston were to get 8 above average players in addition to the current group....but one of those 8 were not QB's; then Houston probably wouldn't be much closer.

Arian Foster is just average?
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Old 3 Days Ago   #3
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Default Re: How close were the Texans to being Super Bowl contenders?

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Arian Foster is just average?
I would also question that one. And I never thought I'd ever see the word average associated with Andre Johnson, but frankly it's kinda come to that at this point in his career. But Foster was very critical to several of our teams wins this past year, but he also missed lots of time, and guess that would have to factor in.
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Old 3 Days Ago   #4
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Default Re: How close were the Texans to being Super Bowl contenders?

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Originally Posted by Troy Chapman View Post
Interesting take; but I don't like how they treat each position individually equal. An above average QB would improve this team vs. an above average Full Back.
And on the flip side of that, sometimes the group performs better than the individual rankings, e.g. our OL only has one player listed as above average (really Brooks?) but I think the OL as a whole played better than average.
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Old 3 Days Ago   #5
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Default Re: How close were the Texans to being Super Bowl contenders?

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
And on the flip side of that, sometimes the group performs better than the individual rankings, e.g. our OL only has one player listed as above average (really Brooks?) but I think the OL as a whole played better than average.
Definitely. I really like PFF and the information I can pull from them; but then they go and do this type of deal and it makes me wonder.
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Old 3 Days Ago   #6
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Default Re: How close were the Texans to being Super Bowl contenders?

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Originally Posted by Troy Chapman View Post
Arian Foster is just average?
They directly addressed that in the writeup. (he was rated 12th/57 RBs >25% snaps).

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
And on the flip side of that, sometimes the group performs better than the individual rankings, e.g. our OL only has one player listed as above average (really Brooks?) but I think the OL as a whole played better than average.
Exactly. PFF ranked our O-line 5th overall. And yeah, Brooks is good... was good last year, too.
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Old 3 Days Ago   #7
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Default Re: How close were the Texans to being Super Bowl contenders?

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Originally Posted by Playoffs View Post
Exactly. PFF ranked our O-line 5th overall. And yeah, Brooks is good... was good last year, too.
Didn't say Brooks was bad.

But that proves my point. If we had the 5th overall OL then we aren't being held back by only 1 above average OLman. I just think it's ridiculous to pop out a number like 8. Eliminate the already as a whole above average OL and it's basically saying replace 8 of 17 remaining starters and that's just whack.

We need set at QB and then all the sudden most of the OL, Foster, AJ, and some TE(s) would be listed as above average again.
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Old 3 Days Ago   #8
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Default Re: How close were the Texans to being Super Bowl contenders?

One player away ..... A Quarterback.
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Old 3 Days Ago   #9
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Default Re: How close were the Texans to being Super Bowl contenders?

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Pass-rusher: Watt accounted for 53.9 percent of the Texans' sacks this season and 26.5 percent of the Texans' disrupted dropbacks -- both league highs. While that speaks to Watt's dominance, it also speaks to the Texans' need for some help in that department.
Despite having one of the great pass rushers in the game, the Texans finished 24th in QB sack %. The bottom 10. I realize the other Texans defenders aren't good pass rushers. But, it seems to me that the Texans could have done a better job of scheming off of Watt to create pass rushing opportunities for other defenders. That just seems reasonable.
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Old 3 Days Ago   #10
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Default Re: How close were the Texans to being Super Bowl contenders?

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Originally Posted by Lucky View Post
Despite having one of the great pass rushers in the game, the Texans finished 24th in QB sack %. The bottom 10. I realize the other Texans defenders aren't good pass rushers. But, it seems to me that the Texans could have done a better job of scheming off of Watt to create pass rushing opportunities for other defenders. That just seems reasonable.
Other rushers had lots of 1 on 1 and just failed to do the job
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If I know the FO, they're not going to get a top QB. Mallett will turn out to be a 1-game flash, but it will be discovered too late.
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Old 3 Days Ago   #11
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Default Re: How close were the Texans to being Super Bowl contenders?

The average NFL team has 2 elite players? There are 64 or so elite players in the NFL? I think there is a watered down definition of elite somewhere in this. Else, the Watts, Megatrons, and Rodgers need to fall into a "Mega Elite" category.

And Foster as average is a joke.
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Old 3 Days Ago   #12
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Default Re: How close were the Texans to being Super Bowl contenders?

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Originally Posted by Lucky View Post
The average NFL team has 2 elite players? There are 64 or so elite players in the NFL? I think there is a watered down definition of elite somewhere in this. Else, the Watts, Megatrons, and Rodgers need to fall into a "Mega Elite" category.

And Foster as average is a joke.
If you look at it as essentially the 1st and 2nd team all pro rosters it sounds less unreasonable.

And ditto on Foster.
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Old 3 Days Ago   #13
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Default Re: How close were the Texans to being Super Bowl contenders?

That entire list is a joke.
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Old 3 Days Ago   #14
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Default Re: How close were the Texans to being Super Bowl contenders?

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Originally Posted by JB View Post
Other rushers had lots of 1 on 1 and just failed to do the job
True, and I don't even want to make too much out of the pass rush stats. There are many ways to defend against the pass, and I thought the Texans did a pretty good job for the most part (though their competition wasn't always stellar). But, I see a team like the Colts, that has no one close to Watt's ability, find ways to get rushers a free shot at the QB. So sure, the Texans need to find additional personnel to improve. But I think there are other ways to improve, as well.

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If you look at it as essentially the 1st and 2nd team all pro rosters it sounds less unreasonable.

And ditto on Foster.
Yeah, but how many all pro guards, centers, safeties, or MLBs are elite? Or make the type of impact on the game that would make a difference on their own? I think there are levels inside levels, and this system seems simplistic. There are so many variables in football that make it very difficult to analyze, as they do in baseball. Baseball just lends itself to that type of analysis. And that analysis is much more sophisticated than anything I've seen attempted for football. I just take this with a lot of skepticism.
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Old 3 Days Ago   #15
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Default Re: How close were the Texans to being Super Bowl contenders?

Paralysis by analysis.. Whoever wrote that article and wasted their time pulling up those stats has way too much time on their hands. The Houston Texans are a franchise QB away from being a SB contender (not some stupid number of average players created through some stat) ... Just as every other team is that doesn't have one.
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Old 3 Days Ago   #16
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Default Re: How close were the Texans to being Super Bowl contenders?

They did it for every team, guess who's closest...?: http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/stor...uper-bowl-team


Explaining 'missing pieces' project
How PFF devised the player rankings for ESPN.com's Super Bowl project
By Sam Monson | Pro Football Focus

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Only two teams could make Super Bowl XLIX, but how far away were the other 30 from being contenders? To figure that out, we at Pro Football Focus dug deep into our database, which has graded every player on every play since the 2007 season. The goal: find what it takes to field a championship-caliber roster.

We started by evaluating each player (minimum 250 snaps played) on the 28 teams to make the conference championship games from 2007-13. Players were placed in one of four categories -- elite, good, average or bad -- based on how their performances compared to that of an average player at their positions.

After adding up all the data, we determined that, on average, 40 percent of the qualifying players on those 28 teams earned either elite or good grades.

From there, we looked at the 30 teams that didn't make this year's Super Bowl in the exact same way -- by eliminating the players who played fewer than 250 snaps and putting the remainder into one of the four categories based entirely on their 2014 performance.

Couple that data with the 40 percent historical baseline and out pops how many more above-average players each team needed this season to be considered a true Super Bowl contender. Here's a quick example: The New Orleans Saints had 35 players who played 250 or more snaps this season, but we deemed only five of them elite or good. The Saints needed 14 such players to hit the 40 percent threshold, so they were nine short.
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Old 3 Days Ago   #17
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Default Re: How close were the Texans to being Super Bowl contenders?

Here's an example of what I was referring to. The Eagles. 3 elite players. Jason Peters, Evan Mathis, and Brandon Graham. Really? And LeSean McCoy is "bad".

OK.
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Old 3 Days Ago   #18
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Default Re: How close were the Texans to being Super Bowl contenders?

i hope im wrong but we did better then expected last year

I think 2017 is the date bob circled that's when the SB will be held in Houston and what better way to win our first SB but two do it in our hometown

I think this year will prob be rebuild year #2
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Old 2 Days Ago   #19
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Default Re: How close were the Texans to being Super Bowl contenders?

Pfft.
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Old 2 Days Ago   #20
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Default Re: How close were the Texans to being Super Bowl contenders?

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Originally Posted by IDEXAN View Post
I would also question that one. And I never thought I'd ever see the word average associated with Andre Johnson, but frankly it's kinda come to that at this point in his career. But Foster was very critical to several of our teams wins this past year, but he also missed lots of time, and guess that would have to factor in.
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And on the flip side of that, sometimes the group performs better than the individual rankings, e.g. our OL only has one player listed as above average (really Brooks?) but I think the OL as a whole played better than average.
That's exactly what is missing. Football is a team game so what's important is how well the whole team functions, not how individuals are graded.
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