Go Back   Houston Texans Message Board & Forum - TexansTalk.com > The Great Fans of the Houston Texans > Texans Talk
Home Forums Register FAQDonate Automatic Monthly Contribution Members List Mark Forums Read


Texans Talk Football talk only please. Keep it to the game, the players, the coaches and management.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-28-2012   #1
jtexas
Veteran
 
jtexas's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 216
Rep Power: 3408 jtexas is a quality contributor and well respectedjtexas is a quality contributor and well respectedjtexas is a quality contributor and well respectedjtexas is a quality contributor and well respectedjtexas is a quality contributor and well respectedjtexas is a quality contributor and well respectedjtexas is a quality contributor and well respectedjtexas is a quality contributor and well respectedjtexas is a quality contributor and well respectedjtexas is a quality contributor and well respectedjtexas is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Strength of Schedule (For Offense)

From an offensive standpoint, the Texans have a considerably weak schedule. These things change a lot from year-to-year, but going off 2011 historical numbers, the offense should perform well.

Pass Defense

The offense will only have four games against a top 10 (2011) passing defenses. Five defenses we play averaged in the bottom 10 (2011). The average pass ranking of the teams we play is 17.25 out of 32 - not great by any means.

MIA - 249 ypg (25th)
JAC - 208 ypg (8)
DEN - 331 ypg (18)
TEN - 226 ypg (14)
NYJ - 201 ypg (5)
GB - 300 ypg (32)
BAL - 196.2 (4)
BUF - 232 (19)
CHI - 254 (28)
JAC - 208 ypg (8)
DET - 226 ypg (14)
TEN - 226 ypg (14)
NE - 293.9 (31)
IND - 227 (15)
MIN - 251 (26)
IND - 227 (15)

Additional Notes:
The Titans should take a step back as they lost Finnegan and now have Alterraun Verner starting, who was primarily the nickel corner last season. Verner played well, but he is better suited to stay at the nickel.

Run Defense

There are five games with teams in the top 10 in run defense and five games with teams in the bottom 10 in run defense. The average ranking run defense is 16.37, again the bottom half.

MIA - 96 ypg (3rd)
JAC - 104 ypg (9)[/b]
DEN - 126 ypg (22)
TEN - 128 ypg (24)
NYJ - 111 ypg (13)
GB - 112 ypg (14)
BAL - 92.6 ypg (2)
BUF - 139 ypg (28)
CHI - 96.4 (5)
JAC - 104 ypg (9)
DET - 128 ypg (23)
TEN - 128 ypg (24)
NE - 117 (17)
IND - 144 (29)
MIN - 107 (11)
IND - 144 (29)

Additional Notes:
Although i intended to concentrate on the defense, Miami isn't even a real team at this point. You can say the same about the Jags with MJJ sitting out and Gabbert starting. If the Texans pull out a win in the first two games, the average run defense jumps to 18 and gets a lot softer.
jtexas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-28-2012   #2
Playoffs 
Subscribed Contributor
 
Playoffs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 16,406
Rep Power: 387845 Playoffs is a quality contributor and well respectedPlayoffs is a quality contributor and well respectedPlayoffs is a quality contributor and well respectedPlayoffs is a quality contributor and well respectedPlayoffs is a quality contributor and well respectedPlayoffs is a quality contributor and well respectedPlayoffs is a quality contributor and well respectedPlayoffs is a quality contributor and well respectedPlayoffs is a quality contributor and well respectedPlayoffs is a quality contributor and well respectedPlayoffs is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Strength of Schedule (For Offense)

Nice work. Rep.
Playoffs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-28-2012   #3
NastyNate
I go kerplunk
 
NastyNate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Seabrook
Section: Uranus
Posts: 1,744
Rep Power: 57418 NastyNate is a quality contributor and well respectedNastyNate is a quality contributor and well respectedNastyNate is a quality contributor and well respectedNastyNate is a quality contributor and well respectedNastyNate is a quality contributor and well respectedNastyNate is a quality contributor and well respectedNastyNate is a quality contributor and well respectedNastyNate is a quality contributor and well respectedNastyNate is a quality contributor and well respectedNastyNate is a quality contributor and well respectedNastyNate is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Strength of Schedule (For Offense)

Thank you for this, interesting. I'd like to see how this correlates with the low ranked passing offenses' TOP.
__________________
I intend to live forever... so far so good.
NastyNate is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-28-2012   #4
Cjeremy635
Overtraining
 
Cjeremy635's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Huffman, Texas
Age: 36
Posts: 7,695
Rep Power: 41385 Cjeremy635 is a quality contributor and well respectedCjeremy635 is a quality contributor and well respectedCjeremy635 is a quality contributor and well respectedCjeremy635 is a quality contributor and well respectedCjeremy635 is a quality contributor and well respectedCjeremy635 is a quality contributor and well respectedCjeremy635 is a quality contributor and well respectedCjeremy635 is a quality contributor and well respectedCjeremy635 is a quality contributor and well respectedCjeremy635 is a quality contributor and well respectedCjeremy635 is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Strength of Schedule (For Offense)

Thanks for the info. I know team's improve or regress every year, but as it stands, it looks promising.
__________________
If it is important to you, you will find a way. If not, you'll find an excuse.
Cjeremy635 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2012   #5
ThaShark316
#28
 
ThaShark316's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Rosharon, TX
Age: 29
Posts: 2,409
Rep Power: 38175 ThaShark316 is a quality contributor and well respectedThaShark316 is a quality contributor and well respectedThaShark316 is a quality contributor and well respectedThaShark316 is a quality contributor and well respectedThaShark316 is a quality contributor and well respectedThaShark316 is a quality contributor and well respectedThaShark316 is a quality contributor and well respectedThaShark316 is a quality contributor and well respectedThaShark316 is a quality contributor and well respectedThaShark316 is a quality contributor and well respectedThaShark316 is a quality contributor and well respected
Send a message via AIM to ThaShark316
Default Re: Strength of Schedule (For Offense)

This is why my optimism is high.

You're about to just come out and STOP the Texans?

When the schedule was released, and everyone said "tough schedule", I kept wondering: So who can shut the Texans down?

I only see CHI and BAL here.
__________________
Resident Gameday Thread Maker. Math enthusiast. Super-villain. Hater of at least 85% of Texan fans.
ThaShark316 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2012   #6
BCRich
Veteran
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 120
Rep Power: 412 BCRich is a quality contributor and well respectedBCRich is a quality contributor and well respectedBCRich is a quality contributor and well respectedBCRich is a quality contributor and well respectedBCRich is a quality contributor and well respectedBCRich is a quality contributor and well respectedBCRich is a quality contributor and well respectedBCRich is a quality contributor and well respectedBCRich is a quality contributor and well respectedBCRich is a quality contributor and well respectedBCRich is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Strength of Schedule (For Offense)

Quote:
Originally Posted by jtexas View Post
Additional Notes:
Although i intended to concentrate on the defense, Miami isn't even a real team at this point. You can say the same about the Jags with MJJ sitting out and Gabbert starting. If the Texans pull out a win in the first two games, the average run defense jumps to 18 and gets a lot softer.
How does those numbers compare to last season? I don't think it's any easier if you look at the strength of defense. I think we played about five games last season against top 5 run defenses & 5 games against top 5 passing defenses.
BCRich is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2012   #7
infantrycak
Lead Moderator
 
infantrycak's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Austin, TX
Age: 47
Posts: 49,407
Rep Power: 413804 infantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Strength of Schedule (For Offense)

Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRich View Post
How does those numbers compare to last season? I don't think it's any easier if you look at the strength of defense. I think we played about five games last season against top 5 run defenses & 5 games against top 5 passing defenses.
Look at what you are saying. 32 teams in the league, 16 games. With minor variation you should expect to play 2.5 top 5 anythings in a year if it was totally random. Playing 5 would be a difficult schedule.
__________________
The Art of War
infantrycak is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored links
Old 07-29-2012   #8
BCRich
Veteran
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 120
Rep Power: 412 BCRich is a quality contributor and well respectedBCRich is a quality contributor and well respectedBCRich is a quality contributor and well respectedBCRich is a quality contributor and well respectedBCRich is a quality contributor and well respectedBCRich is a quality contributor and well respectedBCRich is a quality contributor and well respectedBCRich is a quality contributor and well respectedBCRich is a quality contributor and well respectedBCRich is a quality contributor and well respectedBCRich is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Strength of Schedule (For Offense)

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRich View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtexas View Post
From an offensive standpoint, the Texans have a considerably weak schedule. These things change a lot from year-to-year, but going off 2011 historical numbers, the offense should perform well.

Pass Defense

The offense will only have four games against a top 10 (2011) passing defenses. Five defenses we play averaged in the bottom 10 (2011). The average pass ranking of the teams we play is 17.25 out of 32 - not great by any means.

Run Defense

There are five games with teams in the top 10 in run defense and five games with teams in the bottom 10 in run defense. The average ranking run defense is 16.37, again the bottom half.
How does those numbers compare to last season? I don't think it's any easier if you look at the strength of defense. I think we played about five games last season against top 5 run defenses & 5 games against top 5 passing defenses.
Look at what you are saying. 32 teams in the league, 16 games. With minor variation you should expect to play 2.5 top 5 anythings in a year if it was totally random. Playing 5 would be a difficult schedule.
I'm sorry, but I don't think I understand what you are saying. The tone suggests you disagree with my last statement, but your post doesn't contradict anything I said.

Looking at the defenses we will play in 2012, our schedule does not look any easier than our 2011 schedule.
BCRich is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2012   #9
BullBlitz
Section 331
 
BullBlitz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,036
Rep Power: 5860 BullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respectedBullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respectedBullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respectedBullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respectedBullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respectedBullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respectedBullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respectedBullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respectedBullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respectedBullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respectedBullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Strength of Schedule (For Offense)

Quote:
Originally Posted by jtexas View Post
From an offensive standpoint, the Texans have a considerably weak schedule. These things change a lot from year-to-year, but going off 2011 historical numbers, the offense should perform well.

Pass Defense

The offense will only have four games against a top 10 (2011) passing defenses. Five defenses we play averaged in the bottom 10 (2011). The average pass ranking of the teams we play is 17.25 out of 32 - not great by any means.

MIA - 249 ypg (25th)
JAC - 208 ypg (8)
DEN - 331 ypg (18)
TEN - 226 ypg (14)
NYJ - 201 ypg (5)
GB - 300 ypg (32)
BAL - 196.2 (4)
BUF - 232 (19)
CHI - 254 (28)
JAC - 208 ypg (8)
DET - 226 ypg (14)
TEN - 226 ypg (14)
NE - 293.9 (31)
IND - 227 (15)
MIN - 251 (26)
IND - 227 (15)

Additional Notes:
The Titans should take a step back as they lost Finnegan and now have Alterraun Verner starting, who was primarily the nickel corner last season. Verner played well, but he is better suited to stay at the nickel.

Run Defense

There are five games with teams in the top 10 in run defense and five games with teams in the bottom 10 in run defense. The average ranking run defense is 16.37, again the bottom half.

MIA - 96 ypg (3rd)
JAC - 104 ypg (9)[/b]
DEN - 126 ypg (22)
TEN - 128 ypg (24)
NYJ - 111 ypg (13)
GB - 112 ypg (14)
BAL - 92.6 ypg (2)
BUF - 139 ypg (28)
CHI - 96.4 (5)
JAC - 104 ypg (9)
DET - 128 ypg (23)
TEN - 128 ypg (24)
NE - 117 (17)
IND - 144 (29)
MIN - 107 (11)
IND - 144 (29)

Additional Notes:
Although i intended to concentrate on the defense, Miami isn't even a real team at this point. You can say the same about the Jags with MJJ sitting out and Gabbert starting. If the Texans pull out a win in the first two games, the average run defense jumps to 18 and gets a lot softer.
Your data is awesome. I have not seen anyone break down the schedule like this. Thanks man!

But your conclusion is incorrect. The difficulty is about average, and about what one would expect from a random sample of the league's teams. Here is a simple explanation:

There are 31 teams that you could possibly play, but for simplification of the math, let's assume there were 30. Also, let's assume that you played all 30 teams in one full NFL regular season.

The result of the above is that you would play ten top-10 teams, ten bottom-10 teams, and ten middle-ranked teams. That's all 30 teams.

Now, cut the above example in half and only play 15 games. If the difficulty were randomly distributed, you would end up playing five top-ten teams, 5 bottom-ten teams, and 5 middle ranked teams. Also their average rank would be about 15.

Apply the above to a 16 game schedule and that is what you came up with - an average schedule.
BullBlitz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2012   #10
BullBlitz
Section 331
 
BullBlitz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,036
Rep Power: 5860 BullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respectedBullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respectedBullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respectedBullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respectedBullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respectedBullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respectedBullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respectedBullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respectedBullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respectedBullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respectedBullBlitz is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Strength of Schedule (For Offense)

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Look at what you are saying. 32 teams in the league, 16 games. With minor variation you should expect to play 2.5 top 5 anythings in a year if it was totally random. Playing 5 would be a difficult schedule.
Yes, I agree. That is the math.
BullBlitz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2012   #11
jtexas
Veteran
 
jtexas's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 216
Rep Power: 3408 jtexas is a quality contributor and well respectedjtexas is a quality contributor and well respectedjtexas is a quality contributor and well respectedjtexas is a quality contributor and well respectedjtexas is a quality contributor and well respectedjtexas is a quality contributor and well respectedjtexas is a quality contributor and well respectedjtexas is a quality contributor and well respectedjtexas is a quality contributor and well respectedjtexas is a quality contributor and well respectedjtexas is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Strength of Schedule (For Offense)

Before my intention gets misinterpreted, it was to point out that from an offensive standpoint, our schedule doesn't look difficult.

I realize that ranking is not the best statistical measure of performance when determining the deviation from a mean, so i broke it out differently.

2012 Avg. Pass Def.
241.00 ypg (an 8.04% decrease in difficultly compared to last season & 4.92% below league average)

2012 Avg. Run Def.
115.44 ypg (a 3.95% increase in difficulty compared to last season & 1.45% above league average). After the first two games this "difficulty increase" is gone and the average is normal.
jtexas is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Go Back   Houston Texans Message Board & Forum - TexansTalk.com > The Great Fans of the Houston Texans > Texans Talk
Home Forums Register FAQ Members List Calendar Mark Forums Read


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:25 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.2
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Ad Management by RedTyger