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Old 07-18-2012   #1
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Default Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

Thanks to Texans Chick who posted this on her blog. Some of the answers you will agree with......others you won't. Either way, makes you think.
************************************************** **************************

Quote:
Q: Last year, Football Outsiders predicted for the first time the Texans to win the AFC South, even with a healthy Peyton Manning. This year, it predicts the same thing with no Peyton Manning in the AFC South but not in a dominating way that some fans expect. Please explain the way the FO info sees the AFC South shaking out.

A: “We see the AFC South shaking out as a division that is imminently winnable, but with the Texans having the best chance to grab it. To put it simply: they are the least-flawed team in a lot of flawed teams. We see Tennessee as having a chance to make some noise, but our numbers are skeptical about their defense. The numbers are, of course, skeptical about the Texans’ defense as well, but that is simply because a regression-based system is going to look at an effectiveness jump that big and be inherently doubtful it lasts. I don’t think that, subjectively, there is as much concern about Houston’s defense. We are projecting Houston with 8.8 wins, Tennessee with 7.5, and the other two teams under seven.”

Last edited by Lucky; 07-22-2012 at 09:58 PM. Reason: Cannot post entire blog, just sample
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Old 07-19-2012   #2
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

Thanks CND

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The Texans finished as the 11th healthiest team despite the misfortune that befell Schaub, Mario Williams, and Andre Johnson. Of course, you could argue that those specific injuries were more devastating than normal ones.
You could argue? Are you sure the author's name isn't Rivers Mc"Clown"?

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When they played New Orleans, Kareem Jackson and Troy Nolan were reduced to smoldering rubble.
Not defending KJ but Brees put up the most yards ever, he obviously reduced a lot of legitimate starting DBs to rubble.

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This will still be an above-average offense even if Arian Foster has to drag them there kicking and screaming,
I think statistically last year showed Schaub is more important to total points scored.

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if they make the playoffs and have their key offensive weapons healthy, I think this team is going to be a very tough out, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them pull off a run to the Super Bowl as a low seed.
I'll take a Super Bowl anyway I can get it.

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So, I don’t know anyone who projected the defense would improve as much as it did last year under Wade Phillips.
Dan Pastorini predicted Top 5 D on air before season started.
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Old 07-19-2012   #3
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

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-The Texans offense faced 4-3 defenses 61 percent of the time last season, due to the schedule and their division rivals. No other NFL team faced the 4-3 more than 44 percent of the time.

-...they ran three-wideout formations just 24 percent of the time dead last in the NFL. They ran four-wideout formations zero percent of the time. This is a team that really needs those young receivers to grow up fast.
Interesting stuff.
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Old 07-19-2012   #4
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I still don't buy this concept/superstition that our D regresses in year 2.

A lot of myths are going to be busted in 2012.
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Old 07-19-2012   #5
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

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I still don't buy this concept/superstition that our D regresses in year 2.

A lot of myths are going to be busted in 2012.
Its the "safe" bet. Its really a silly prediction because we were statistically the #2 total ranked defense last season. So to say "they will regress" is an easy prediction --- unless we move up to #1, they'll be correct.

Its like the Madden curse-- you give a guy notoriety after a breakout season, he is more than likely going to regress a little the next year while everyone keys on him

We have a tougher schedule, so I dont doubt we'll move down a little
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Old 07-19-2012   #6
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

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Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger View Post
Thanks to Texans Chick who posted this on her blog. Some of the answers you will agree with......others you won't. Either way, makes you think.
************************************************** **************************
I think this is fair. I also thought it was interesting, and true, that we as fans expect a very linear improvement. The NFL (and sports in general) don't work that way. Our team could be every bit as good as last year and will probably have a worse record, even if injuries don't hit as hard. We as fans should be careful about expectations: we were 10-6 last year, so we expect that, or better, this year, or we've regressed. Not necessarily.
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Old 07-19-2012   #7
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

I stopped reading after
Quote:
The Texans finished as the 11th healthiest team
There's just no...freaking...way.
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Old 07-19-2012   #8
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

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I stopped reading after There's just no...freaking...way.

i know we even loss key starters Sharpton -who bassically took 50% or more of demco snaps

Manning and our Up and coming punter Hartmen ... and Linehart played like 4 snaps and boom he was done LOL

and like usual i think Mike Brisel had a broken leg and was still playing
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Old 07-19-2012   #9
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

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I stopped reading after There's just no...freaking...way.
as far as total number of injuries, we were actually fairly healthy last season. it just so happened that those we did have were to our star players, as opposed to having 20 backups landing on IR.
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Old 07-19-2012   #10
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

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as far as total number of injuries, we were actually fairly healthy last season. it just so happened that those we did have were to our star players, as opposed to having 20 backups landing on IR.
Agreed, which is why I call horse**** on the author for his attempt to poo-poo the injuries we DID have. It was rationalize and justify with that author.

Who else loses their starting QB, went without their star RB (and the backup, too, for awhile) for four games, AND their #1 WR for basically the whole season, with the RG on a bum leg and the star Safety with a bum leg and out for several games...Mario Williams gone for the year VERY early in the season...and STILL wins the AFCS and gets to the second round of the playoffs riding the arm of a rookie QB who played scout team for half the season in a lockout shortened year?

That'd be my response to the author. I'd say, "Dude you are so full of **** it's coming out of your ears and I need a rain poncho to keep it off of me. Just stop already."

It's as if event though we kicked major ass last year...we can't possibly do it again. These authors are in shock, they're trying to find ways to explain away the success we had in 2011 and that there's probably around 8 or 9 wins for us in 2012???? LOL. They are on crack. Bad crack.
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Old 07-19-2012   #11
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

I'm going to spend the same amount of time worrying about the accuracy of this article as I am worrying about that meteor that's about to hit earth and blow everything up.
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Old 07-19-2012   #12
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

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I'm going to spend the same amount of time worrying about the accuracy of this article as I am worrying about that meteor that's about to hit earth and blow everything up.
The fact is, at some point in time that meteor will hit the earth. That's the way solar systems work. Still, I'd give that a better chance of happening in my lifetime than the believability of most sport articles.
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Old 07-20-2012   #13
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

uh...it was uh...something to read during a slow Texans news time...uh
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Old 07-21-2012   #14
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

I think there are some good points and bad points with the interview. The defense not being as good can almost be assumed however, there's nary a defense on our schedule that could hold a candle to the Steelers or the Ravens (maybe the Jets but they weren't as good last year). The NFCN was kind of a joke in terms of defensive play in 2011. I think the offense is going to have a much easier go of it in 2012.

As far as the injuries are tough to really guage because we had so many, but we weren't the only ones. Hopefully we can weather whatever garbage lady luck hurl our way.
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Old 07-21-2012   #15
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

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Originally Posted by bayoudreamn View Post
I'm going to spend the same amount of time worrying about the accuracy of this article as I am worrying about that meteor that's about to hit earth and blow everything up.
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Originally Posted by Thorn View Post
The fact is, at some point in time that meteor will hit the earth. That's the way solar systems work. Still, I'd give that a better chance of happening in my lifetime than the believability of most sport articles.
Not to worry you but....

Quote:
By January 2009, NASA had listed 1006 potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) and 85 near-Earth comets (NECs).[5] The total Solar System inventory continues to grow, with 1310 PHA known as of May 2012.[3][6] Projects such as Lincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research and Catalina Sky Survey continue to search for more PHOs. Each one found is studied by various means, including optical, radar, and infrared to determine its characteristics, such as size, composition, rotation state, and to more accurately determine its orbit. Both professional and amateur astronomers participate in such monitoring.
During an asteroid's close approaches to planets or moons it will be subject to gravitational perturbation, modifying its orbit, and potentially changing a previously non-threatening asteroid into a PHA or vice versa. This is a reflection of the dynamic character of the Solar System
Thorn's right. At least the meteorite predictions are based on science.
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Old 07-22-2012   #16
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

You guys gotta lighten up. Everything they're projecting is computer modeled based on 2011 data. I thought it was good insight and liked the statistical standpoint. Defense I see settling in around #6 or 7 this year with an improvement in the offense. Should be a 9-10 win regular season and hope to be clicking come January.
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Old 07-23-2012   #17
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

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You guys gotta lighten up. Everything they're projecting is computer modeled based on 2011 data. I thought it was good insight and liked the statistical standpoint. Defense I see settling in around #6 or 7 this year with an improvement in the offense. Should be a 9-10 win regular season and hope to be clicking come January.
Seemed to me that it was rather fair.

If you actually read the FOA books, their projections are on a continuum. With different percentage chances going to different number of wins.

They still predict the Texans to win the AFC South.

Their numbers are concerned about the health of Schaub/Andre Johnson.

Their numbers project a tougher out of division schedule than last year.

I don't think the FOA author (A Texan fan who has charted Texans games for years), was being dismissive of last year's injuries.

And he acknowledged basic regression model stuff from his subjective view of things.
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Old 07-23-2012   #18
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

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I still don't buy this concept/superstition that our D regresses in year 2.

A lot of myths are going to be busted in 2012.
I don't either. I think we're better this year than we were last year. I expect players we didn't think would contribute as much as they did to improve even more in their second seasons and I really don't think Mario & DeMeco being gone will even be noticed.

I think we either stay at the level we are at or we get better. If the offense stays healthy and scores that's going to put even more pressure on opposing offenses and Wade's defense is going to use that to good effect.
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Old 07-23-2012   #19
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

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I still don't buy this concept/superstition that our D regresses in year 2.

A lot of myths are going to be busted in 2012.
Stats are a funny thing. Go back & look at how many top 5 teams have repeated as top 5 over the last 5 years. There aren't many.

SOS.... a lot of people don't want to talk about it, but it's there. We went into the season with a lot of bad offensive teams on our schedule. They turned out to be worse than projected, thanks to our D, but they were bad across the board regardless.

We didn't slow down the Saints & I think Baltimore put 30 on us.

In 2012, we're going to be playing more potent offenses. It only stands to reason our stats are not going to look as good as they did in 2011. I doubt we'll be top 5. Hopefully, we'll be top 10 in scoring.
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Old 07-23-2012   #20
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

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Stats are a funny thing. Go back & look at how many top 5 teams have repeated as top 5 over the last 5 years. There aren't many.

SOS.... a lot of people don't want to talk about it, but it's there. We went into the season with a lot of bad offensive teams on our schedule. They turned out to be worse than projected, thanks to our D, but they were bad across the board regardless.

We didn't slow down the Saints & I think Baltimore put 30 on us.

In 2012, we're going to be playing more potent offenses. It only stands to reason our stats are not going to look as good as they did in 2011. I doubt we'll be top 5. Hopefully, we'll be top 10 in scoring.
I agree with this post completely. It's even possible that the defense will be better, but will still rank lower because of the SOS and the fact that other defenses may make bigger strides or face weaker offences.

One thing though, you can't be on both sides of the SOS argument. In the 12-4 prediction thread you were arguing that we have a more favorable SOS this year (which I disagree with).
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