Jaws gives breakdown on Schaub (AFC South Blog)

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by DocBar

I would like to see that spreadsheet. I am inclined to say that Kubiak will get even more run-oriented in a close game to prevent negative plays (sacks, sack/strips,INT's) in a close game and pick his spots for pass plays. Kubiak is known to stick to a balanced attack even when the running game is doing poorly.

If I knew better, I'd be a head coach myself. But I don't understand why Kubiak gives up on the run so easily. At least it appears to me that he gives up too easy.

If we're down by 10 points, we're going to air the ball out, regardless how affective the run game is. Arian Foster ran for over 100 yards in the first half of the Baltimore play-off game. Second half, less than 30.

It was a long time ago, but my memory has me believing we were throwing the ball on almost every snap. I remember pulling my hair out. Literally.

Maybe Baltimore... the third best defense in the league stopped our run game. Maybe they made adjustments & had our number. I don't know. But I felt he gave up, too early, again.

[Goatcheese]

Originally Posted by DocBar

I would like to see that spreadsheet.

Source - Official NFL statistics

situational passing breakdown
Points Margin -------0-7---8-14---15+
Schaub---------------111---122---59
Leinart---------------13------0------0
Yates-----------------104----0-----30
Delhomme-----------28-----0-----0

Total------------------256---122---89

Situational rushing breakdown (doesn't include QB rushes)
Foster---------------143----43-----92
Tate-----------------67-----28-----80
Ward----------------12-----0------33
Slaton---------------20-----2------2

Total----------------242----73-----207

It does seem off that Yates has no 8-14 point passes. :headscratcher:

Edit - some of the numbers don't add up with the other numbers I have. I'll post the lead by/trail by numbers later if I get a chance.

Edit 2 -



So, 83 more passes when leading close, 60 more passes when trailing close, 10 fewer passes when tied.

[DocBar]

The leading close/behind close stats make sense since the team is trying to extend a lead or close the gap. Nice breakdown.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by thunderkyss

If I knew better, I'd be a head coach myself. But I don't understand why Kubiak gives up on the run so easily. At least it appears to me that he gives up too easy.

If we're down by 10 points, we're going to air the ball out, regardless how affective the run game is. Arian Foster ran for over 100 yards in the first half of the Baltimore play-off game. Second half, less than 30.

It was a long time ago, but my memory has me believing we were throwing the ball on almost every snap. I remember pulling my hair out. Literally.

Maybe Baltimore... the third best defense in the league stopped our run game. Maybe they made adjustments & had our number. I don't know. But I felt he gave up, too early, again.

Nah, up until the last two drives (starting with 2:52 left in the game), Foster ran 27 times while Yates attempted 28 passes.

7 of those attempts (with one incompletion) were to the RBs (Foster and Tate) and they were like extensions of the run.

With 2:52 left, leading by 7, the Ravens played two-deep safeties.
On the Texans next-to-last drive, they didn't really play prevent defense; but they played soft (with the safeteis way back).
The Texans were in one-back set; still it makes sense for Yates to go to AJ on consecutive intermediate completions (as the safeties played back).
It was on the third play where Yates became greedy and forced the ball long into double coverage.

At any rate, the point is that Kubiak did not give up on the running game.

[GP]

Originally Posted by DocBar

I would say that we're an OL first offense. Excluding obvious passing situations, the success of the passing game relies on play action and the OL selling the run at the snap. That, to me, is one of the greatest assets of this offense. When the OL is working great, defenses have a very hard time determining run or pass because the 1st 1-2 seconds(a long time in an NFL play) tend to look identical and it freezes LB's and safeties for those critical 1-2 seconds. That shows itself in games where the oppossing defense has superior talent in the interior DL. The OL tends to struggle and the rest of the offense falls off with it. Last years game against the Raiders and the regular season Baltimore game highlighted this IMO. Kubiak was slow to adjust in the regular season, but made the proper changes in the playoff game against the Ravens.

As goes the OL, so goes the rest of the offense, to a large degree.

I was going to mention this facet of the team, since it's been mentioned recently by others...glad you brought this issue up.

Yes, the OL might be the real key here. If the OL is clicking...anything works. When it's struggling...everything struggles.

Throw in a rookie QB who was playing scout team, in a lockout shortened season, and it complicates things whether the OL is doing well or not.

Getting Schaub back, a GOOD Schaub by the way, and our OL performing well--THAT is the key. If that happens, it doesn't matter who our WR2 or WR3 is. Well, sort of. But still.

[76Texan]

*double post

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

No it isn't, Yes there are, Never said they didn't.

All I am saying is Kubiak wants a running game. That is different from being a run first team..

I wasn't disagreeing with you ICAK; I was disagreeing with dopplergang.

[infantrycak]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

I wasn't disagreeing with you ICAK; I was disagreeing with dopplergang.

I was very short in that post but wasn't disagreeing with you either. I feel we are designed to be a balanced attack team capable of doing either as needed. Situation will dictate how much one or the other gets used.

The folks I disagree with are those who say the Texans are built to be a rushing team.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by Goatcheese

A straight run/pass% analysis doesn't really tell the story of what an offense wants to do or is good at doing.

A crappy team that is always down by 20 points is going to throw a lot. A team that is always in the lead is generally going to run more (unless they simply can't run: late 2k's Colts).

I remember reading a mid-season story in the paper that said the Texans ran their average play with a lead of somewhere around 4.5 (highest in the NFL at the time). When you're always in the lead and trying to kill clock, you're going to run more that if you were always playing catchup. It doesn't mean that would be your ideal run/pass balance in a close game. I don't have all of my excel files in front of me, but I seem to remember the Texans throwing more than running in situations where the game was +-3 points in the first 3 quarters.

You're saying some of the things I said.

However, there are more to numbers than just a lead.

It also depends on other factors.

I have a bunch of playbooks by different teams.
In one of them, the offensive team charts the tendency of the defensive team on every down and distance.
This is another tool that a team use to formulate a game plan against a certain opponent.

Then they start the game with a certain number of scripted plays (let's say 25) to check that tendency. If it stays true, they continue with the game plan' otherwise, they adjust.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

I was very short in that post but wasn't disagreeing with you either. I feel we are designed to be a balanced attack team capable of doing either as needed. Situation will dictate how much one or the other gets used.

The folks I disagree with are those who say the Texans are built to be a rushing team.

I didn't think you were disagreeing with me either.

And as you said, situations will dictate the game plan and any adjustment necessary.
I rewatched a couple of games: Colts week 1 and Raiders.
I'll bring them up to clarify a few points (not to you, but to others).

[76Texan]

In week 1 vs. the Colts, the Texans started the game with 11 running plays and 9 passing plays to go up by 17.

They continued with the game plan with 18 rushing attempts and 17 passing attempts to double the lead.

It was only then when they switched to the run game to kill the clock.

[GP]

If this team were to only run the ball OR pass the ball....

Which would do better???

Who here thinks we have a Colts/Saints offense designed to pass, pass, pass and score lots of points...then toss the occasional sweep to a RB or an occasional RB draw?

Who here thinks we have a Giants/Steelers offense designed to run and compliment with the pass with lots of TE action and the one extraordinary WR who is a deep threat?

You can strive to "be" anything you want. What ARE you, though, at the end of the day? We're a team who runs the ball so freaking beautifully that the passing game is a token byproduct of the run game. And the OL, beginning with Myers, is the key to that.

[infantrycak]

Originally Posted by GP

You can strive to "be" anything you want. What ARE you, though, at the end of the day? We're a team who runs the ball so freaking beautifully that the passing game is a token byproduct of the run game. And the OL, beginning with Myers, is the key to that.

Which is why we led the league in passing and receiving with NO RUSHING GAME.

Token is beyond ridiculous. It is what came on first. 9140 yards in two seasons is not token.

[76Texan]

Against the Raiders, a team that was known to be mediocre at defending the run, one would expect the Texans would at least run as much as they did in 2010.

However, thie year, the Raiders were determined to stop the Texans running game. They played mostly single safety, and even zero coverage to bring more men into the box.

The Texans ran the ball 16 times and passed the ball 21 times in the first half.
Then they started the second half with roughly the same distribution (7 runs and 10 pass attempts) as the Raiders continued with their defensive game plan and forged ahead by 8 with 10 minutes to go in the 4th.

It was only then that the Texans switched full gear to the passing game.

The Texans tried to stay with the running game for as long as possible even though it wasn't working.

With the Raiders going 3 and out twice, the Texans controlled the ball for almost 9 minutes (of the 10 minutes remained in the game.)
The lone rushing attempt by Foster in the last 3 drives resulted in a net loss of 4 yards.

In fact, a case could be made for the Texans to throw a few more times in the first 3 quarters given the defensive game plan by the Raiders.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by GP

If this team were to only run the ball OR pass the ball....

Which would do better???

Who here thinks we have a Colts/Saints offense designed to pass, pass, pass and score lots of points...then toss the occasional sweep to a RB or an occasional RB draw?

Who here thinks we have a Giants/Steelers offense designed to run and compliment with the pass with lots of TE action and the one extraordinary WR who is a deep threat?

You can strive to "be" anything you want. What ARE you, though, at the end of the day? We're a team who runs the ball so freaking beautifully that the passing game is a token byproduct of the run game. And the OL, beginning with Myers, is the key to that.

See the Raiders game that I just recapped.

[Lucky]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

In fact, a case could be made for the Texans to throw a few more times in the first 3 quarters given the defensive game plan by the Raiders.

The passing game (sans Andre Johnson) wasn't working either. Schaub was 1-11 with a game ending interception when trying to connect with Jacoby Jones.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

Nah, up until the last two drives (starting with 2:52 left in the game), Foster ran 27 times while Yates attempted 28 passes.

At any rate, the point is that Kubiak did not give up on the running game.

With 12:29 left in the 4th, Foster would only carry the ball twice for the rest of the game. The score was 17-13 Baltimore.

After the missed field goal by Rackers, we got the ball back with 13:30 on the clock. Foster carried the ball three times back to back. 6 yards, 7 yards, then 1 yard. We then passed for two consecutive times, then punted.

We got the ball back, same score, 17-13 Baltimore with 9:34 on the clock. A pass to Dre for 19 yards, a Screen to Foster, losing 7 yards. A run by Foster picking up 2 yards, the fumble, Jacoby picks it up. 3rd & 12..... int.

They score a field goal. we get the ball back with 2:44 to go. Two big passes, we get to the Balt38. We go for the bomb again..... INT.

Of course we've got to pass now, 0:45 left in the game, 4 straight passes..... game over.

I don't know. We ran the ball 4 times in the 4th Qtr & the score wasn't really a factor until the last 3 minutes. Even if take out the last 4 passes, that's 8 passes to 4 runs... far as I can tell, we finished the game with 2 timeouts left.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by Lucky

The passing game (sans Andre Johnson) wasn't working either. Schaub was 1-11 with a game ending interception when trying to connect with Jacoby Jones.

Foster and Chris O ran the ball 24 times for 70 yards.
That's less than 3 ypc.

Schaub atttempted 51 passes for a net of 403 yards; that's nearly 8 ypa.

I don't see how you can say that the passing game wasn't working, despite JJ (and the rest of the guys for that matter.)
It's not Schaub's fault that some of the passes were dropped.
It wasn't just JJ.
Vickers, for example, also dropped a sure TD when he was wide-open.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by thunderkyss

I don't know. We ran the ball 4 times in the 4th Qtr & the score wasn't really a factor until the last 3 minutes. Even if take out the last 4 passes, that's 8 passes to 4 runs... far as I can tell, we finished the game with 2 timeouts left.

Come on TK, you're trivializing things a little too much.

4th Qtr
Ravens led 17-13

Houston Texans at 13:30
1-10-HST 20 (13:30) A.Foster right guard to HST 26 for 6 yards (R.Lewis).
2-4-HST 26 (13:01) A.Foster right guard to HST 33 for 7 yards (L.Webb). R13
1-10-HST 33 (12:29) A.Foster right guard to HST 34 for 1 yard (B.McKinney).
2-9-HST 34 (11:54) T.Yates pass incomplete short left to B.Tate.
3-9-HST 34 (11:48) (Shotgun) T.Yates pass short right to K.Walter to HST 40 for 6 yards (B.Pollard).
4-3-HST 40 (11:16) (Punt formation) M.Turk punts 35 yards to BLT 25, Center-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

That's 3 runs and then a quick throw to Tate (which TJ short-armed for an incompletion). Then it was 3rd and 9; a pass to Walter isn't out of line here.

Houston Texans at 9:34
1-10-HST 31 (9:34) T.Yates pass deep right to A.Johnson to HST 50 for 19 yards (L.Webb). P14
1-10-HST 50 (8:57) T.Yates pass short left to A.Foster to HST 43 for -7 yards (R.Lewis).
2-17-HST 43 (8:11) (Shotgun) A.Foster up the middle to HST 45 for 2 yards (H.Ngata). FUMBLES (H.Ngata), recovered by HSTJ.
Jones at HST 48. J.Jones to HST 48 for no gain (R.Lewis).
3-12-HST 48 (7:28) (Shotgun) T.Yates pass deep middle intended for K.Walter INTERCEPTED by L.Webb at BLT 29. L.Webb
to BLT 29 for no gain (K.Walter).

A pass to AJ followed by a pass to Foster (which is basically a run).
Then a run by Foster even though it was 2nd and 17.
And finally a pass attempt to Walter on 3rd and 12.
I don't see anybody abandonning the run.

Then the Ravens went up by a TD with 2:52 to go, playing soft like I already described; there was nothing wrong with switching to the pass in that situation with the defense they were playing.

[ckhouston]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

Which is why we led the league in passing and receiving with NO RUSHING GAME.

Token is beyond ridiculous. It is what came on first. 9140 yards in two seasons is not token.

Lets just go back to the beginning and bash Carr and Capers if you are going to continue to insist on bringing up the past to try and prove a point that has no merit. We are a run first team NOW. Watch the games sparky.