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Old 06-29-2012   #41
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
Neither, really. Just saying that AJ shouldn't be in the same conversation as Rice.
Not being rude at all but so f#$king what? It isn't the Hall of Greatest Single Individual of All Time. Jerry Rice is not the benchmark for anyone who gets in. It's about who dominated while they played.
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Old 06-29-2012   #42
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

Judging individual players by Superbowl wins is a bunch of bullcrap. I don't care how many "experts" do it or for how many centuries, it's still bullcrap.

AJ needs to up the TDs. 'Course, our running scheme and RBs may give him fewer opportunities in the Red-Zone. A third All-Pro selection would go a LONG ways...
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Old 06-29-2012   #43
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

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Not being rude at all but so f#$king what? It isn't the Hall of Greatest Single Individual of All Time. Jerry Rice is not the benchmark for anyone who gets in. It's about who dominated while they played.
I figured you would gather from my post above that I agree with that. The comment was pretty much directed at the few people who insist on putting AJ and Rice in some comparison, which is unfair to AJ. If you're not one to do that, then disregard. It was an aside to the point of the thread intended for a small audience.

Related to that, however, is the very real recognition that Rice is the only WR that's gotten in easily lately. That part of the evaluation ties into the consideration of who the voters will select, regardless what you and I think about greatness.
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Old 06-29-2012   #44
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

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Judging individual players by Superbowl wins is a bunch of bullcrap. I don't care how many "experts" do it or for how many centuries, it's still bullcrap.

AJ needs to up the TDs. 'Course, our running scheme and RBs may give him fewer opportunities in the Red-Zone. A third All-Pro selection would go a LONG ways...
Different position and different situation, but something to consider - Dr. Doom had 2 All-Pro selections, went to the Pro Bowl 7 times, and is part of the 1970s All Decade team. Not only is he not in the HoF, but he can't even get a whiff. So All-Pro selections are supposed to indicate the best player at that position, but we have an example where that's not even enough for serious consideration.
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Old 06-29-2012   #45
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

Consider this, Lynn Swann. HOF, although it took him a while to get there.

Over his career of 9 seasons, he put up:

96 games started, 115 games played.
336-5462-51

2.92 receptions per game.
47.5 yards per game.
16.25 yards per catch.

Just to refresh, here's AJ:

Over 9 years so far:
122 games started, 122 games played.
706-9656-52

5.79 receptions per game.
79.1 yards per game.
13.7 yards per catch.

Except for Swann's SB rings, AJ whips his little, Steeler ass.
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Old 06-29-2012   #46
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

Oh, and AJ is a 5 time pro-bowler and 2-time All Pro while Swann was a pro-bowler 3 times and all-pro 1 time.
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Old 06-29-2012   #47
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

You're deliberately overlooking a few key points:

1.) They played in completely different eras. Once the league implemented the first of many rules intended to favor the passing game, Stallworth was actually the more prolific receiver. You really can't compare receivers of that era to today's receivers, though Swann didn't even match up to his contemporaries. Which leads us to ...

2.) Swann is in because of those rings. Citing stats on Lynn Swann is useless. Everyone knows he is in because of the rings, in large part.

3.) The HoF loves them some Steelers. Better players from the Cowboys still haven't gotten in, despite the team's success in the 1970s.

4.) Swann sat in front of a camera for years reminding voters of his eligibility. I don't mean to say that he lobbied for it, but his constant visibility no doubt helped.

Stats have nothing to do with Swann's induction into the HoF. Moreover, no modern WR is going to be compared to Swann, nor will he gain any traction by attempting to do so. AJ will be compared to Cris Carter, Tim Brown, etc. I think the Jimmy Smith comparison I did upthread kind of illustrates how far he has to go.

ETA - I hate, hate, HATE the Steelers, so this should in no way be construed as any sort of defense of Lynn Swann or the Steelers. There's no way Swann deserves to be in the HoF, but there's not much that can be done about it. I don't think Art Monk deserved it either, so what do I know?
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Old 06-29-2012   #48
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

I don't think Rice deserves it.
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Old 06-29-2012   #49
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
You're deliberately overlooking a few key points:

1.) They played in completely different eras. Once the league implemented the first of many rules intended to favor the passing game, Stallworth was actually the more prolific receiver. You really can't compare receivers of that era to today's receivers, though Swann didn't even match up to his contemporaries. Which leads us to ...

2.) Swann is in because of those rings. Citing stats on Lynn Swann is useless. Everyone knows he is in because of the rings, in large part.

3.) The HoF loves them some Steelers. Better players from the Cowboys still haven't gotten in, despite the team's success in the 1970s.

4.) Swann sat in front of a camera for years reminding voters of his eligibility. I don't mean to say that he lobbied for it, but his constant visibility no doubt helped.

Stats have nothing to do with Swann's induction into the HoF. Moreover, no modern WR is going to be compared to Swann, nor will he gain any traction by attempting to do so. AJ will be compared to Cris Carter, Tim Brown, etc. I think the Jimmy Smith comparison I did upthread kind of illustrates how far he has to go.

ETA - I hate, hate, HATE the Steelers, so this should in no way be construed as any sort of defense of Lynn Swann or the Steelers. There's no way Swann deserves to be in the HoF, but there's not much that can be done about it. I don't think Art Monk deserved it either, so what do I know?
I pointed out that the only reason Swann was in there was because of his rings AND that it took him a while to get in.

BUT by your logic, we can't compare anyone currently in the HOF to any current player because the rules are different. There's no one who has played in the "new" era that's made the HOF, yet.

My point was that you can get in with low stats. You don't have to be the greatest that's ever played, like Rice, to get in.

The last two WRs to get in, prior to Rice, were Art Monk and Michael Irvin.

Art Monk: 16 year career. 224/193 games/games started.
940-12721-68

That's 4.2 catches/game, 56.8 yards/game, and 0.3 TDs/game. 3 time pro-bowler, 1 time all-pro.

Michael Irvin: 12 year career. 159/147 games/games started.
750-11904-65

That's 4.7 catches/game, 74.9 yards/game, and 0.41 TDs per game. 5 time pro-bowler, 1 time all-pro.

AJ has better stats than those guys. BUT. No rings. BUT. He's been an all pro more and to more pro-bowls.

I said earlier that I don't think AJ makes it in. But stat-wise, he compares favorably to almost all the guys that are already in there except he doesn't have the rings AND he's playing in a different era.

If AJ gets healthy and has a 3-4 healthy seasons with Schaub (or some other QB who can get him the ball), he could put up some Rice-like numbers. But right now, he hasn't distanced himself enough stat-wise from those guys from other eras.
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Old 06-29-2012   #50
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
You're deliberately overlooking a few key points:

1.) They played in completely different eras. Once the league implemented the first of many rules intended to favor the passing game, Stallworth was actually the more prolific receiver. You really can't compare receivers of that era to today's receivers, though Swann didn't even match up to his contemporaries. Which leads us to ...

2.) Swann is in because of those rings. Citing stats on Lynn Swann is useless. Everyone knows he is in because of the rings, in large part.

3.) The HoF loves them some Steelers. Better players from the Cowboys still haven't gotten in, despite the team's success in the 1970s.

4.) Swann sat in front of a camera for years reminding voters of his eligibility. I don't mean to say that he lobbied for it, but his constant visibility no doubt helped.

Stats have nothing to do with Swann's induction into the HoF. Moreover, no modern WR is going to be compared to Swann, nor will he gain any traction by attempting to do so. AJ will be compared to Cris Carter, Tim Brown, etc. I think the Jimmy Smith comparison I did upthread kind of illustrates how far he has to go.

ETA - I hate, hate, HATE the Steelers, so this should in no way be construed as any sort of defense of Lynn Swann or the Steelers. There's no way Swann deserves to be in the HoF, but there's not much that can be done about it. I don't think Art Monk deserved it either, so what do I know?
Here's a good article written by a HoF voter who has apparently received some amount of blowback over Swann's election.

LINK

A couple of what I consider to be the more interesting blurbs attempting to put some perspective between Swann's era, and today's NFL (The article was written in Nov. 2011, so when he says "last year", he's referring to the 2010 season.)
Quote:
So how does one compare Swann to Welker?

Itís help to compare apples to apples, so letís just pick one of Swannís seasons. 1977 was perhaps the lowest point in passing over the last 60 years; it was also the last season played with a 14-game schedule and prior to two key rules changes. That year, teams averaged just 12.8 completions per game against 37.4 runs; last year, those averages were 20.5 and 27.2, respectively. In the í70s, a much higher percentage of offensive plays ended with the offense unequivocally failing, as sacks and incompletions (and interceptions) were much more common. Last year, wide receivers were catching passes on 24% of all plays that were either rushing plays or passes that were completed (i.e., plays that might gain yards for the offense); in 1977, that number was only 11%.
Quote:
Some advanced analysis beyond merely looking at receptions and receiving yards is required to compare players across eras. For example, in 2010, Roddy White led the league in percentage of team receptions, catching 31.9% of all Falconsí completions. Larry Fitzgerald (31.6) and Steve Johnson (27.7%) rounded out the top three. In 1977, New York Jet Clark Gaines (32.4%) led all players in that metric, with Baltimoreís Lydell Mitchell (31.7%) and Bearsí receiver James Scott (31.1%) as the only other players ahead of Swann in percentage of team receptions (Swann was fourth at 28.9%). Iím not sure if thereís a starker example of how different 1977 was from 2010 than that: a fullback on a 3-11 team had a higher percentage of his teamís catches in í77 than Roddy White did for the Falcons last season.
In short, I agree - I don't think comparing AJ to Swann provides much if any insight on Andre's Hall of Fame chances.
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Old 06-29-2012   #51
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
You're deliberately overlooking a few key points:

1.) They played in completely different eras. Once the league implemented the first of many rules intended to favor the passing game, Stallworth was actually the more prolific receiver. You really can't compare receivers of that era to today's receivers, though Swann didn't even match up to his contemporaries. Which leads us to ...

2.) Swann is in because of those rings. Citing stats on Lynn Swann is useless. Everyone knows he is in because of the rings, in large part.

3.) The HoF loves them some Steelers. Better players from the Cowboys still haven't gotten in, despite the team's success in the 1970s.

4.) Swann sat in front of a camera for years reminding voters of his eligibility. I don't mean to say that he lobbied for it, but his constant visibility no doubt helped.

Stats have nothing to do with Swann's induction into the HoF. Moreover, no modern WR is going to be compared to Swann, nor will he gain any traction by attempting to do so. AJ will be compared to Cris Carter, Tim Brown, etc. I think the Jimmy Smith comparison I did upthread kind of illustrates how far he has to go.

ETA - I hate, hate, HATE the Steelers, so this should in no way be construed as any sort of defense of Lynn Swann or the Steelers. There's no way Swann deserves to be in the HoF, but there's not much that can be done about it. I don't think Art Monk deserved it either, so what do I know?
Swann, I believe, is the first beneficiary of the NFL Films "highlight reel" era. It's Swann's circus catches - on the big stage - that got him in. As you pointed out, he doesn't have the pro bowl appearances nor the fantasy numbers to put him in. But he caught big, "circus" catches in big games. And NFL Films play those highlights ad nauseum and that got him in.
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Old 06-29-2012   #52
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

One thing to consider is that, at this time, AJ is ranking in the 30's all time in receiving types of categories like yards and receptions.

A lot of the guys between him and #1 are guys who have recently retired or are still playing. The number 2 guy in catches is Tony Gonzalez. Guys like Marvin Harrison and Isaac Bruce are in there.

AJ has a long way to go to really be in the HOF discussion.

But if he stays healthy and has a few more years of 1000 yards AND we win a couple of SBs, then he'll be in the discussion. But we've got to get him that hardware.
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Old 06-29-2012   #53
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

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Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
One thing to consider is that, at this time, AJ is ranking in the 30's all time in receiving types of categories like yards and receptions.

A lot of the guys between him and #1 are guys who have recently retired or are still playing. The number 2 guy in catches is Tony Gonzalez. Guys like Marvin Harrison and Isaac Bruce are in there.

AJ has a long way to go to really be in the HOF discussion.

But if he stays healthy and has a few more years of 1000 yards AND we win a couple of SBs, then he'll be in the discussion. But we've got to get him that hardware.
First off chuck Gonzalez out as TE isn't going to be compared to WR. There are only four active WR's in front of AJ on yards and all are at least three years older. If AJ were to gain 4000 yards in the remainder of his career he would be 6th all time. Barring an injury that does not appear to be a stretch IMO. If he and Schaub stay healthy for one season we are going to see another 1500+, pro-bowl, all pro season.
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Old 06-29-2012   #54
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

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First off chuck Gonzalez out as TE isn't going to be compared to WR. There are only four active WR's in front of AJ on yards and all are at least three years older. If AJ were to gain 4000 yards in the remainder of his career he would be 6th all time. Barring an injury that does not appear to be a stretch IMO. If he and Schaub stay healthy for one season we are going to see another 1500+, pro-bowl, all pro season.
....and, if we see that, we may see a Superbowl win...
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Old 06-29-2012   #55
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

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Originally Posted by ObsiWan View Post
Swann, I believe, is the first beneficiary of the NFL Films "highlight reel" era. It's Swann's circus catches - on the big stage - that got him in. As you pointed out, he doesn't have the pro bowl appearances nor the fantasy numbers to put him in. But he caught big, "circus" catches in big games. And NFL Films play those highlights ad nauseum and that got him in.
This ^^^^

Swann is well known for his huge post season games where he made these huge catches that were game changers. That, and of course his rings he won with the Steelers and everything else. I personally don't think he should be in there though.


AJ will get in I think. By the time he retires he'll have questionable numbers for it for today's era, but I think the voters will remember just how great AJ was from year to year and how many years he had to play with Carr. AJ is so respected everywhere that I just have a hard time imagining him not making it in.
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Old 06-29-2012   #56
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

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This ^^^^

Swann is well known for his huge post season games where he made these huge catches that were game changers. That, and of course his rings he won with the Steelers and everything else. I personally don't think he should be in there though.


AJ will get in I think. By the time he retires he'll have questionable numbers for it for today's era, but I think the voters will remember just how great AJ was from year to year and how many years he had to play with Carr. AJ is so respected everywhere that I just have a hard time imagining him not making it in.
I agree Tex and I hope we're right.
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Old 06-29-2012   #57
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

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Dre for sure... Domanic Davis should certainly be given consideration since he was asked to do way more than he was drafted for and produced. You could also make an argument for a couple of defensive players early on. Their numbers weren't that good in large part because the offense was inept and they spent waaaay too much time on the field.

yeah back in thoes days i wouldnt say our D was not world beaters but they were deff better then our Offensive

the only two players on our O back then that were any good was our RB and WR but without a QB they couldnt do it alone

Remember when Sage use to come in for David it seemed like our O was ran better just saying
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Old 07-01-2012   #58
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

AJ should be the 1st Texan in the HOF. But, I keep getting this sinking feeling, that with the number of his injuries and his age, he may end up like Bagwell did with the Stros. That by the time the Texans make it to the Super Bowl AJ may be just an afterthought (Too banged up or too old to make any difference.). Of course it won't matter to AJ if they win and he gets a ring. And that should seal the HOF for him. They have to hurry though. I think the window for AJ is maybe another 2 to 3 years at his current ability.
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Old 07-01-2012   #59
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

I hate judging on numbers because numbers can be skewed for so many reasons.

Everyone knows Andre has been the best WR in football for YEARS. At the very worst, 1a.

When you're dominant at your position for that long of a time, and your talents are what they are, you should go into the HOF, numbers be damned.
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Old 07-02-2012   #60
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
First off chuck Gonzalez out as TE isn't going to be compared to WR. There are only four active WR's in front of AJ on yards and all are at least three years older. If AJ were to gain 4000 yards in the remainder of his career he would be 6th all time. Barring an injury that does not appear to be a stretch IMO. If he and Schaub stay healthy for one season we are going to see another 1500+, pro-bowl, all pro season.


he has averaged under 1k yards per season in the last 10 season, scrap last year if you want and the average moves to 1018 per. While Id love to see him hang another 1500 + season the truth is he only has two out of 10 seasons played so Im not sure its that easy to say if he and Schaub stay healthy he will hang another. He is getting older so lets not over look that
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