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Old 06-26-2012   #1
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Default Texans chances of making it to the HOF

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...yers-to-canton

All week, I'll be looking at players in the AFC South who have a legitimate chance to make the Hall of Fame when they retire. Up first are the Houston Texans.

For the purposes of this exercise, I'm not going to consider any player who has been in the league for fewer than five seasons.

While that excludes players like Arian Foster and J.J. Watt, the fact is that many men have a strong start to their careers but fall by the wayside as injuries and time catch up to them. It's simply too hard to predict that far down the road. It's not that they aren't potential Hall of Famers, just that it's too soon to examine their cases.

That leaves four current and one ex-Texan to evaluate. They are presented in order of their likeliness of making the Hall of Fame.



Andre Johnson

Johnson has had a spectacular career, but he plays a position where spectacular hasn't been enough for quite some time. When players like Cris Carter, Tim Brown and Andre Reed have to wait several years for induction, you know it's going to difficult for any receiver.

Johnson's career stacks up comparably to Reggie Wayne in Indianapolis. Look at the numbers of both men through nine years.




Wayne is already a longshot for Canton, and he has something Johnson doesn't have: a Super Bowl ring. Rings shouldn't even be considered when measuring wide receivers, but they are. If the matter were decided right now, Wayne would be in line ahead of Johnson.

Given Johnson's current rank on the all-time lists, I give him no more than 30 percent chance of making the Hall. I'm afraid that's being generous.

Johnson ranks 91st in career receiving touchdowns and needs 40 more to make the top 10 all-time. Only six men in history have ever accomplished this after age 30: Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison, Cris Carter, Terrell Owens, Irving Fryar, and Tim Brown.

In yards, Johnson ranks 39th all-time. To break into the top 10, he needs roughly 4200 more yards. This is more doable, as 23 players have done it after age 30. The bad news is that of the top 10 wideouts in yardage, only two are in the Hall of Fame. Yards won't be enough to get Andre Johnson in.

Johnson is 34th all-time in receptions. Another 250 would put him in the top 10. Again, this is quite possible, as 35 other men have managed it at Johnson's age. Unfortunately, of the top 10 in receptions, only Rice has been enshrined as a Hall of Famer.

For Johnson to make Canton, at the minimum he must accomplish the following: 50 more touchdowns, 5000 more yards, 400 more catches, three more Pro Bowls and a Super Bowl ring. Even with those numbers added to his already prodigious career, he'll still be in line behind other greats waiting to get in.

Odds of Enshrinement: 30%


Hmmm dont know if i agree with this about AJ. Johnson has the highest YPG of any WR in the history of the NFL. Has had 2 back to back 1500 yard seasons. And if he can get healthy again then he should for sure make it.
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Old 06-26-2012   #2
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He's simply not a lock for the HoF. He has a chance, but right now he isn't making the cut. Give him 3-4 more years of top 10 WR production and he should make it. But he needs to be healthy and he needs a good QB.
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Old 06-26-2012   #3
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

Foster has a chance to make the HOF in addition to AJ

The 1st Texans HOF'er probably isn't on the roster. I would give Cushing or Watt the best chance.

AJ would've been a HOF'er had he had some help or not played injured.
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Old 06-27-2012   #4
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

Very dumb that AJ has such a small chance. He's, overall, one of the top 5 WRs I've ever seen.

Too bad the accomplishments don't back it up.
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Old 06-27-2012   #5
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

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Originally Posted by TheMatrix31 View Post
Very dumb that AJ has such a small chance. He's, overall, one of the top 5 WRs I've ever seen.

Too bad the accomplishments don't back it up.
And the list of guys in front of him are pretty impressive as well... a few more years of really good numbers will help his case though, as by then , the guys in front of him might have been enshrined.
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Old 06-27-2012   #6
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

We should never start threads linking bleacher report..
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Old 06-27-2012   #7
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
He's simply not a lock for the HoF. He has a chance, but right now he isn't making the cut. Give him 3-4 more years of top 10 WR production and he should make it. But he needs to be healthy and he needs a good QB.
Agreed. And as mentioned above, though rings shouldn't count, we all know they do. And heavily. AJ has to stay healthy and get back to form and he's got a shot but at this point he's certainly not a "lock" as badly as we want him to be.
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Old 06-27-2012   #8
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

Generally speaking players' careers are overrated based upon strong post-season performance and underrated on the basis of an absence or very little post season performance, atleast that's my opinion. Obviously AJ falls into the latter category - it's not his fault that he didn't ever have an opportunity to shine in a SB.
Nevertheless I still think AJ makes it because the franchise is now
in it's 10th year, so it would be atleast 15 before he's eligilble and the league will figure it's time for the Houston Texans to have atleast one member in the HOF. And besides AJ would be deserving based upon his onfield performance.
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Old 06-27-2012   #9
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

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Originally Posted by EllisUnit View Post

Hmmm dont know if i agree with this about AJ. Johnson has the highest YPG of any WR in the history of the NFL. Has had 2 back to back 1500 yard seasons. And if he can get healthy again then he should for sure make it.
This alone qualifies him for the Hall of Fame. No one else in history can claim the first stat, and only Jerry Rice can claim the second. Ask the best players and coaches in the league if Andre should be inducted, and I'd be shocked if any said no.

It may sound cliche' to say that I hate the Bleacher Report, but it's not a cliche' when they continue to prove why.
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Old 06-27-2012   #10
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

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Originally Posted by Brisco_County View Post
This alone qualifies him for the Hall of Fame. No one else in history can claim the first stat, and only Jerry Rice can claim the second. Ask the best players and coaches in the league if Andre should be inducted, and I'd be shocked if any said no.

It may sound cliche' to say that I hate the Bleacher Report, but it's not a cliche' when they continue to prove why.


You have to have more than those two items. Id love for him to make it but he has a good ways to go first
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Old 06-27-2012   #11
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2012Champs View Post
You have to have more than those two items. Id love for him to make it but he has a good ways to go first
There are four guys above him on the all time yardage list who are currently active and all of them are significantly older. If AJ has even four decent by AJ standard years he will be in the top 5 WR's of all time on yardage.

In addition to the two items mentioned above AJ has been regarded as the best WR in the NFL for part of his career (would have been larger if he had a real QB). Others who are considered part of the logjam have not - Isaac Bruce, Tim Brown, Andre Reed, Irving Fryar, Jimmy Smith, Hines Ward, Rod Smith, Keenan McCardell, Joey Galloway, Keyshwan Johnson, etc. - all combined zero All Pro elections. There are another 6-8 guys with only 1 All Pro.
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Old 06-27-2012   #12
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
There are four guys above him on the all time yardage list who are currently active and all of them are significantly older. If AJ has even four decent by AJ standard years he will be in the top 5 WR's of all time on yardage.

In addition to the two items mentioned above AJ has been regarded as the best WR in the NFL for part of his career (would have been larger if he had a real QB). Others who are considered part of the logjam have not - Isaac Bruce, Tim Brown, Andre Reed, Irving Fryar, Jimmy Smith, Hines Ward, Rod Smith, Keenan McCardell, Joey Galloway, Keyshwan Johnson, etc. - all combined zero All Pro elections. There are another 6-8 guys with only 1 All Pro.
So what you are saying is that he needs to do more than what he has already?

Carter having a hard time getting in with almost 14k yards 12.6 ypc avg and 130 tds is crazy and should show that Dre has more work to do
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Old 06-27-2012   #13
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

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Originally Posted by 2012Champs View Post
Carter having a hard time getting in with almost 14k yards 12.6 ypc avg and 130 tds is crazy and should show that Dre has more work to do
Carter not being in has nothing to do with his stats and everything to do with his attitude.
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Old 06-27-2012   #14
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

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Carter not being in has nothing to do with his stats and everything to do with his attitude.

Okay with dre and his great attitude he isn't getting in based off of his career to date.
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Old 06-27-2012   #15
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

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Originally Posted by 2012Champs View Post
So what you are saying is that he needs to do more than what he has already?

Carter having a hard time getting in with almost 14k yards 12.6 ypc avg and 130 tds is crazy and should show that Dre has more work to do
Last I checked AJ's career isn't over. Of course any discussion of AJ involves him finishing his career. Duh.

Carter isn't in the hall due to off the field issues which are not supposed to be considered but they are.
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Old 06-27-2012   #16
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

"If you have to discuss it or argue about it or justify it with abstract numbers, then he ain't getting in."

Hall of Fame worthiness should need no discussion.

No one will ask if Brady is a Hall of Famer.
They may have to debate Roethelisberger.

No one had to ask if Rice was a Hall of Famer.
Unless he has a string of blow-up years (and we all hope he does), they'll have to debate A.J.
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Old 06-27-2012   #17
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

who do u think the texans in the 02-05 Capers era deserves to be in the Texans HOF ring at least ????
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Old 06-27-2012   #18
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

The only reason there is even a discussion about Dre is because he played on some crappy teams with a crappy QB *ahem* HWSRN.
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Old 06-27-2012   #19
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

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who do u think the texans in the 02-05 Capers era deserves to be in the Texans HOF ring at least ????
Dre for sure... Domanic Davis should certainly be given consideration since he was asked to do way more than he was drafted for and produced. You could also make an argument for a couple of defensive players early on. Their numbers weren't that good in large part because the offense was inept and they spent waaaay too much time on the field.
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Old 06-27-2012   #20
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Default Re: Texans chances of making it to the HOF

I understand the typical Bleacher Report jab, but in this case, that particular article lays out the information fairly well.

Unfortunately, it's going to be tough for him to get in. No one will care that he played with horrible QBs to start off either. A ring or two that he plays a hand in will definitely help. The best thing for him to do is stay healthy during the remaining years of his career and just continue to post solid numbers.
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