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Old 06-21-2012   #1
Texans_Chick
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Default On reloading the Texans passing game

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On reloading the Texans passing game

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1. First round wide receiver isn’t a slam dunk as far as draft value goes. The folks at Cold Hard Football Facts calls them “those shiny wide receivers.” It’s their belief that high pick wide receiver is often a waste. And most specifically, they have the view that the Titans were the biggest losers in the 2012 draft because they continually overdraft wide receiver.

I think CHFF might overstate their generalized point. Observationally, I think a lot of bad offensive teams chase good skill players high in the draft with the hope that they are a magic cure for having a garbage offense. When some of these wide receivers fail, that is seen as a failure of the top pick wide receiver choice, and not as much a fact that maybe a team had a bad offense due to quarterback/scheme/coaching issues.

There’s also some teams that have been able to do wonders with lower round wide receivers that fit what that particular offense does. Hello Victor Cruz, Marques Colston.
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Old 06-21-2012   #2
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Default Re: On reloading the Texans passing game

Great reads! Thanks!
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Old 06-21-2012   #3
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Default Re: On reloading the Texans passing game

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If a team is going to relay on the system to fill _____ position is that it has to be a numbers game. Look at Cruz for the giants, while he was an UDFA, they draft WRs ( in the early to mid rounds) near every year. they have plenty of 2nd-4th round bust, but they are trying to find somebody all the time. I mean how many dudes the texans went through befoe finding foster...a dozen...maybe more.

The texans pretty much did not give enough effort in finding WRs and now we/they are hoping on guys to be real contributors versus true developmental guys. the draft is not just about filling immediate needs, but anticipating issues that will happen on positions that seem strong.
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Old 06-21-2012   #4
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Default Re: On reloading the Texans passing game

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Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan View Post
If a team is going to relay on the system to fill _____ position is that it has to be a numbers game. Look at Cruz for the giants, while he was an UDFA, they draft WRs ( in the early to mid rounds) near every year. they have plenty of 2nd-4th round bust, but they are trying to find somebody all the time. I mean how many dudes the texans went through befoe finding foster...a dozen...maybe more.

The texans pretty much did not give enough effort in finding WRs and now we/they are hoping on guys to be real contributors versus true developmental guys. the draft is not just about filling immediate needs, but anticipating issues that will happen on positions that seem strong.
Excellent point.

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Old 06-21-2012   #5
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Default Re: On reloading the Texans passing game

MSR. Excellent piece!

As a complement to your article, I would invite you and others to read this piece that came out just before this year's Draft.

According to research from ESPN Florida's Charlie Bernstein, only 40 percent (18 of 45) wide receivers drafted in the first round from 2000-2010 have panned out. It is interesting to note, though, that seven of the past eight first-round receivers have been solid. Bernstein found that second-round receivers have a 22.4 percent (11 of 49) hit rate while those drafted in the third round succeed at just 15 percent (8 of 55). Of the 215 receivers drafted from Rounds 4-7, only 14 (6.5 percent) have emerged as solid contributors.

Quote:
Updated: April 20, 2012, 9:41 AM

Insider: Fun With Draft Stats- WR’s
By Charlie Bernstein
NFL Analyst

Looks like you gotta kiss a lot of frogs......
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Old 06-21-2012   #6
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Default Re: On reloading the Texans passing game

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Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan View Post
The texans pretty much did not give enough effort in finding WRs and now we/they are hoping on guys to be real contributors versus true developmental guys. the draft is not just about filling immediate needs, but anticipating issues that will happen on positions that seem strong.
From 2007-2011, the Texans drafted 12 DBs to 3 WRs. And they still had to reach into free agency to get a couple of quality DBs. It was the misses at DB that led to the neglect of the WR position, among others.
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Old 06-21-2012   #7
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Default Re: On reloading the Texans passing game

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From 2007-2011, the Texans drafted 12 DBs to 3 WRs. And they still had to reach into free agency to get a couple of quality DBs. It was the misses at DB that led to the neglect of the WR position, among others.
If Wade would have been here I bet the DB draft would have been better.
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Old 06-21-2012   #8
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Default Re: On reloading the Texans passing game

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If Wade would have been here I bet the DB draft would have been better.
Absolutely. I agree.
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Old 06-21-2012   #9
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Default Re: On reloading the Texans passing game

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If Wade would have been here I bet the DB draft would have been better.
Actually, I think if Wade and his staff had been here, we could have drafted the same exact DBs and they would have performed better.

I'm not saying that we wouldn't have drafted better DBs just that better coaching and scheming would have given better results with the same guys.
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Old 06-21-2012   #10
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Default Re: On reloading the Texans passing game

Just some thoughts: I agree with the Texans apparent decision that Randle was not their guy. Their bet seems to be that AJ will be healthy enough to get them at least another step in playoffs AND that Jean will turn into a player. I now feel that Posier is not expected to contribute much this season but is targeted for 2013. Even if Martin is not what they & I believe he is, the bet seems to be that TEs, RBs, AJ & Walter can do at least as well as last season equaling another championship. The bet is also that Schaub will be at the steering wheel rather than an inspiring but experience limited 5th round pick in the playoffs ending in at least one more W.

The evaluator focused only on AJ as the team's offensive superstar. He is but is joined by Foster and I will predict Tate will have an explosive season.

Most know that I want a WR2 and imo he is not on the roster, at least no one that will be much more than a step up from JJ. Lucky for McNair, a step up from JJ + those in my first paragraph could be enough to get us into the Super Bowl.

Oh and BTW? I disagree with Stephanie that we have never had a good defense prior to last season. We had players. We did not have a DC and coaches that could make them into a team.
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Old 06-21-2012   #11
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Default Re: On reloading the Texans passing game

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Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger View Post
MSR. Excellent piece!

As a complement to your article, I would invite you and others to read this piece that came out just before this year's Draft.

According to research from ESPN Florida's Charlie Bernstein, only 40 percent (18 of 45) wide receivers drafted in the first round from 2000-2010 have panned out. It is interesting to note, though, that seven of the past eight first-round receivers have been solid. Bernstein found that second-round receivers have a 22.4 percent (11 of 49) hit rate while those drafted in the third round succeed at just 15 percent (8 of 55). Of the 215 receivers drafted from Rounds 4-7, only 14 (6.5 percent) have emerged as solid contributors.




Looks like you gotta kiss a lot of frogs......
So using those stats, its obvious to me if you need a WR, best percentage of success is first round, imagine that.
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Old 06-21-2012   #12
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Default Re: On reloading the Texans passing game

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Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan View Post
If a team is going to relay on the system to fill _____ position is that it has to be a numbers game. Look at Cruz for the giants, while he was an UDFA, they draft WRs ( in the early to mid rounds) near every year. they have plenty of 2nd-4th round bust, but they are trying to find somebody all the time. I mean how many dudes the texans went through befoe finding foster...a dozen...maybe more.

The texans pretty much did not give enough effort in finding WRs and now we/they are hoping on guys to be real contributors versus true developmental guys. the draft is not just about filling immediate needs, but anticipating issues that will happen on positions that seem strong.
I dont disagree with you here at all , they have neglected the position for quite a while. But you have to look at the circumstances surrounding that neglect.


They have the luxury of #1 WR who will be a first ballot HOFer and a #2 in Walter who just gets the job done and lead the NFL in catch percentage of balls thrown in his direction.
This regime was also handed a 2-14 disasster of a roster with holes galore. In fixing those holes elsewhere in the roster .... they neglected the position.
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Old 06-21-2012   #13
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Default Re: On reloading the Texans passing game

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I dont disagree with you here at all , they have neglected the position for quite a while. But you have to look at the circumstances surrounding that neglect.


They have the luxury of #1 WR who will be a first ballot HOFer and a #2 in Walter who just gets the job done and lead the NFL in catch percentage of balls thrown in his direction.
This regime was also handed a 2-14 disasster of a roster with holes galore. In fixing those holes elsewhere in the roster .... they neglected the position.
This is overall fair. Andre did afford them the luxury of not having to focus on the position and 09/10 Walter/ Jacoby were fine at the 2a/2b, but everyone could see some version of this day coming and we are here.

BTW, not that I don't think Andre is not a great WR, but the HOF jerks that position around and Andre at the moment is nowhere near a 1st ballot HOF and may need to do some heavy lifting the next few years to be any sort of lock.
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Old 06-22-2012   #14
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Default Re: On reloading the Texans passing game

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Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan View Post
This is overall fair. Andre did afford them the luxury of not having to focus on the position and 09/10 Walter/ Jacoby were fine at the 2a/2b, but everyone could see some version of this day coming and we are here.

BTW, not that I don't think Andre is not a great WR, but the HOF jerks that position around and Andre at the moment is nowhere near a 1st ballot HOF and may need to do some heavy lifting the next few years to be any sort of lock.
So true. I think a lot of folks are going to go bananas when it doesn't happen. There's a log jam at WR that's been the talking point of countless talking heads. As much as I would love to see it happen just like my fellow Texans fans I think he's by no means a lock first ballot HOFr as it stands today.

Now a couple of rings in the next few years would be an entirely different story.
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Old 06-22-2012   #15
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Default Re: On reloading the Texans passing game

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So true. I think a lot of folks are going to go bananas when it doesn't happen. There's a log jam at WR that's been the talking point of countless talking heads. As much as I would love to see it happen just like my fellow Texans fans I think he's by no means a lock first ballot HOFr as it stands today.

Now a couple of rings in the next few years would be an entirely different story.
I think the perceived log-jam is one of different philosophies in deciding what is important. A lot of the guys folks bring up amassed large stats over long careers. Those are the guys I think are primarily having a hard time getting into the hall. I think the voters are looking at WR in particular and asking was he ever considered the best in the game. For example Andre Reed is often brought up but he was never an All-Pro. Isaac Bruce and Tim Brown are in the same situation. AJ has already had 2 All-Pro selections and was commonly in the press as the best WR in the league until last year. Not saying he is a shoe in or anything. Just saying he has been regarded as the top WR in the league and that is a big consideration.
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Old 06-24-2012   #16
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Default Re: On reloading the Texans passing game

Ah heck. If you can get to the Pro Bowl with HWSNBN throwing to you, that should be a HOF lock.

I wish that were a joke.
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