Kuharsky blog: 2013 Cap Carnage...A. Smith and K. Walter

[GP]

Texans: Defensive end Antonio Smith has been a key player on the team’s defensive front. I can’t see them parting with him, but I didn’t see the Eric Winston move either. Smith is due $6 million and if fourth-rounder Jared Crick pans out quickly, there could be some strain on Smith. Kevin Walter is due $3.5 million in 2013, and after drafting DeVier Posey and Keshawn Martin the team could be ready to move on at receiver.

Link to full blog entry HERE.

Well, I don't know what the cap savings would be to cut Walter's $3.5 million salary (scheduled for 2013).

What is the cap implications IF he is cut THIS year before reg season begins??? What is the cap implications if he stays this year but is cut at end of 2012 season???

As far as A. Smith goes, yeah...I see a storm brewing if Crick flashes in what limited snaps he gets in 2012. $6 million for A. Smith for 2013? Not gonna' be here in 2013 unless it would only save us a small portion off cap space to cut him--Anybody know his cap hit if he's cut after 2012?

[Nawzer]

Antonio Smith is my no.1 candidate for next year's cap casualty.

[Lucky]

Smith still has $5 million of signing bonus that's not amortized. $2.5 million will count against the 2012 cap, the final $2.5 million against the 2013 cap. Cutting Smith in 2013 would realize a cap savings of $3.5 million. But, you (or Kuharsky) are assuming a 4th round pick will be able to effectively replace Smith. Big assumption. The real question is whether Smith can be replaced for less than $3.5 million in the FA market in 2013. I doubt that, which is why I see Smith getting a back loaded extension in 2013, which will lower his cap value.

[GP]

Originally Posted by Lucky

...The real question is whether Smith can be replaced for less than $3.5 million in the FA market in 2013. I doubt that, which is why I see Smith getting a back loaded extension in 2013, which will lower his cap value.

So the savings (in terms of cap relief) would not be enough to warrant playing hardball with him nor relying upon his replacement if we went the route of cutting him or pissed him off by our dealings with him.

Is there a Vet Minimum issue with his potential new salary, though? Can it be adjusted however we want or is it rigid in terms of how much of it can be back loaded? Would the Texans be able to land a deal that's good for both him AND the Texans...or will a friendly deal "now" end up being a bit poisonous in the last years of the deal (causing delayed cap hell)?

I know, I'm full of questions. LOL.

[GP]

I think Kevin Walter is a cut either this year or early 2013.

Granted, my statement is based on his age vs. the youth we're drafting for that position (will likely take at least a WR or two in 2013 draft, IMO). I just don't see him surviving here past this upcoming 2012 season.

[Rey]

Originally Posted by GP

I think Kevin Walter is a cut either this year or early 2013.

Granted, my statement is based on his age vs. the youth we're drafting for that position (will likely take at least a WR or two in 2013 draft, IMO). I just don't see him surviving here past this upcoming 2012 season.

I said a while ago that I wouldn't be shocked if he was cut, but I think it'd take some pretty amazing circumstances that aren't likely to happen.

He's the only fully healthy vet on the team right now at wr.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by Lucky

Smith still has $5 million of signing bonus that's not amortized. $2.5 million will count against the 2012 cap, the final $2.5 million against the 2013 cap. Cutting Smith in 2013 would realize a cap savings of $3.5 million. But, you (or Kuharsky) are assuming a 4th round pick will be able to effectively replace Smith. Big assumption. The real question is whether Smith can be replaced for less than $3.5 million in the FA market in 2013. I doubt that, which is why I see Smith getting a back loaded extension in 2013, which will lower his cap value.

Why did not Ric Smith try to do that already as we have been in cap hell since signing Manning and Joseph? Seems he could have kept Winston or at least Brisiel & extended Smith. I'm not arguing just bringing it up.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by GP

I think Kevin Walter is a cut either this year or early 2013.

Granted, my statement is based on his age vs. the youth we're drafting for that position (will likely take at least a WR or two in 2013 draft, IMO). I just don't see him surviving here past this upcoming 2012 season.

I don't know. Kubiak is supposedly enthralled by Walter's good hands and blocking.

[Lucky]

Originally Posted by badboy

Seems he could have kept Winston or at least Brisiel & extended Smith. I'm not arguing just bringing it up.

I just don't think the Texans wanted to keep Winston and Brisiel at those prices. Winston had regressed as a pass blocker and Brisiel had injuries the past 3 seasons. Good players, yes. But not $4million+/year players.

[Corrosion]

Originally Posted by badboy

I don't know. Kubiak is supposedly enthralled by Walter's good hands and blocking.

Year before last Walter lead the NFL in catch percentage Vs targets - catching something like 67% of the balls thrown in his direction.


Just sayin ....

[eriadoc]

Originally Posted by badboy

I don't know. Kubiak is supposedly enthralled by Walter's good hands and blocking.

Which frankly he has. The question on Walter is why they don't throw the ball to him. He catches a very, very high percentage of balls thrown his way. So is he not getting open? Does the scheme call for him to run screen plays for the other guys? What? I really hope Walter stays through this season if only to see the All-22 film that's being offered this year and answer those questions.

[The Pencil Neck]

Originally Posted by eriadoc

Which frankly he has. The question on Walter is why they don't throw the ball to him. He catches a very, very high percentage of balls thrown his way. So is he not getting open? Does the scheme call for him to run screen plays for the other guys? What? I really hope Walter stays through this season if only to see the All-22 film that's being offered this year and answer those questions.

He's been playing injured, at least last season and possibly the one before. IIRC, that injury is decreasing his ability to get separation so he's not getting open and the QBs aren't expecting him to get open so they're looking elsewhere.

I'm reporting that as what I've heard (and surmised from that) and not claiming that it's accurate or true.

[GP]

Originally Posted by Lucky

I just don't think the Texans wanted to keep Winston and Brisiel at those prices. Winston had regressed as a pass blocker and Brisiel had injuries the past 3 seasons. Good players, yes. But not $4million+/year players.

Which begs the question...is Walter a $3.5 million-per-year WR?

That number is awfully close to Winston/Brisiel money.

[infantrycak]

Originally Posted by eriadoc

Which frankly he has. The question on Walter is why they don't throw the ball to him. He catches a very, very high percentage of balls thrown his way. So is he not getting open?

Walter does not draw double coverage but I think Kubiak often designs plays for him to clear open zones and then block which is why we see the TE's with nobody around them so often. For a spitballing example - AJ drags a couple defenders with him up the left sideline, Walter pushes the CB up the right to right where he feels the transition in the zone is and then slants to the interior forcing the transition decision of either the CB following him or the safety taking him while OD comes off a block and leaks out into the flat where Walter and the CB had been. So now OD is 8 yards wide open and heading down field building up steam to hit the safety for another 5 yards of gain. The design of the play is for OD to be the first read with a second read on Walter if the transition is blown. He gets open, runs precise routes and has crisp cuts but I just think they use him more strategically to create mismatches rather than just a go out there and beat your guy on this route type of WR.

[mussop]

Originally Posted by Nawzer

Antonio Smith is my no.1 candidate for next year's cap casualty.

surprised no mention of OD. He needs a big year or he is number 1 IMO.

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by mussop

surprised no mention of OD. He needs a big year or he is number 1 IMO.

KW is gone next year... or, he'll do a favorable restructure. A.Smith will be interesting.

My understanding is that the cap will take a significant jump next season. The Texans clearly made tough decisions this year in preparation for next season and all the contracts coming due... Remember, Quin, Butler, McCain, Cody are all free agents as well. I know those aren't "A" list players, but they aren't guys that can simply be replaced with mid round rookies or unwanted veteran free agents either.

It appears the Texans front office has a grasp on the situation. If they are able to re-sign a couple key guys before this year, it will make their franchise tag more valuable and give them more bargaining power heading into 2013. So, I think getting a couple guys signed now is a huge key... Remember that guys like Barwin, Quin, McCain are all playing from pretty small rookie deals. So, tearing up the last year of those deals and giving them a multiple million dollar signing bonus is going to be attractive to those guys.

[Lucky]

Originally Posted by GP

Which begs the question...is Walter a $3.5 million-per-year WR?

That number is awfully close to Winston/Brisiel money.

If Walter doesn't put up numbers this year, he'll be asked to take another pay cut. His 2012 salary was reduced from $3.5 million to $2 million.

[ChampionTexan]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

My understanding is that the cap will take a significant jump next season.

You might want to re-think your understanding.

The salary cap slightly increased to $120.6 million from $120.37 last season. Several team management officials said it's not projected to jump much in 2013, prompting one general manager to say there could be "carnage" for some big-contract players

LINK

There's a difference of opinion between owners and players on where the salary cap will be next year (and 2014 for that matter), but the owners are claiming between the artificially propped up cap for 2011 and 2012, and the increase in benefits that will be paid, the salary number will be basically flat next season. I'm thinking in this issue, the owners are very probably right, and the players are very probably in for a disappointment.

[Malloy]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

Walter does not draw double coverage but I think Kubiak often designs plays for him to clear open zones and then block which is why we see the TE's with nobody around them so often. For a spitballing example - AJ drags a couple defenders with him up the left sideline, Walter pushes the CB up the right to right where he feels the transition in the zone is and then slants to the interior forcing the transition decision of either the CB following him or the safety taking him while OD comes off a block and leaks out into the flat where Walter and the CB had been. So now OD is 8 yards wide open and heading down field building up steam to hit the safety for another 5 yards of gain. The design of the play is for OD to be the first read with a second read on Walter if the transition is blown. He gets open, runs precise routes and has crisp cuts but I just think they use him more strategically to create mismatches rather than just a go out there and beat your guy on this route type of WR.

Very good point!

[ObsiWan]

Originally Posted by Lucky

If Walter doesn't put up numbers this year, he'll be asked to take another pay cut. His 2012 salary was reduced from $3.5 million to $2 million.

Yeah... I thought he'd already taken a paycut...

Is any of that guaranteed money?