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Old 06-07-2012   #1
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Default Wade: Year 2..........Boom or Bust?

We're all excited about the upcoming season. And here's the first article from Kuharsky that we have been expecting since he was sighted at OTAs.
............with a nice picture of our D-coordinator.

Quote:
Thursday, June 7, 2012
Texans fired up for Year 2 with Phillips
By Paul Kuharsky



HOUSTON -- The Houston Texans' defense is brimming with confidence, expecting to swarm, believing it’ll be dominant.

And why not?

The Texans' D was second in the NFL last year in yardage allowed, balanced in stopping the run and the pass. A stable of young talent should get better. And last season's ascent on defense came after a lightning-quick installation during training camp following the lockout -- there was no offseason with defensive coordinator Wade Phillips and the staff.

“We’re going to be a whole lot better, because everybody fully understands the defense and all the concepts,” second-year defensive end J.J. Watt said. “So now we can just go out and have fun and not have to think about it.

“It’s going to be tough [on offenses]. They’re going to have to decide, really. If you want to block Brooks Reed, you’ve got me. If you want to block me, you’ve got Antonio Smith. If you want to block Antonio, you’ve got Connor Barwin. If you want to block all four of us you’ve got Brian Cushing. We’ve got guys coming from all over and Wade can draw up some serious schemes. So good luck. Who do you want to try to block?”

Many teams wound up playing a lot of max protection against the Texans last season, and Houston will often take that and chalk it up as a win. Even if you keep the Texans from hitting your quarterback, you’ve narrowed your options in the passing game by choosing to field extra blockers over pass targets. The defense has solid options to shut down primary weapons in such situations as well, starting with corner Johnathan Joseph, who will cover the top receiver.

Max protection certainly qualifies as a sign of respect for the Texans’ pass-rushing powers.

When Phillips was hired to revamp the defense last year, much of the talk was about the success his scheme had had in the first season virtually everywhere he’s installed it.

Before he joined the Texans, the seven teams with a first-year Phillips defense had posted a .571 winning percentage and gone to the playoffs five times. Last year’s team went 10-6 and won the AFC South.

Not everything is in a defense’s control, of course.

But teams with a second-year Phillips defense have not fared as well, posting a .471 winning percentage and advancing to the playoffs only once.

“He hasn’t talked about it at all and I don’t see any reason that would happen here,” Watt said. “If that’s the true stat, then we’re going to change that stat. Because we won’t let that happen. We were No. 2 last year, this year we want No. 1.”

Phillips doesn’t see any sort of trend.

The 2003 Falcons lost quarterback Michael Vick to injury. The 2005 Chargers and the 2008 Cowboys both finished 9-7.

“It’s not like the defense had a bad year, it just didn’t go quite the same as the year before,” he said. “New Orleans we were better, Philadelphia we were better. I was coordinating in those places too …”

“What we want to do is pick up where we left off at the end of the year, that’s the goal. We want to be near as good starting off as we were finishing last year. I think that’s the key to how well we play this year.”

Five of Phillips' previous seven teams were worse in points allowed in the second season than they were in the first.

Years 1 and 2 Under Wade

Here are NFL rankings and records for Wade Phillips' defenses (either as head coach or coordinator) in his first and second years with a team.
Year Team PPG YPG Rush YPG Pass YPG W-L
1981 New Orleans Saints 24 11 11 20 4-12
1982 New Orleans Saints 8 5 10 8 4-5
1986 Philadelphia Eagles 12 17 19 14 5-10-1
1987 Philadelphia Eagles 25 23 9 28 7-8
1989 Denver Broncos 1 3 6 3 11-5*
1990 Denver Broncos 23 20 17 21 5-11
1995 Buffalo Bills 12 13 11 16 10-6*
1996 Buffalo Bills 6 9 14 8 10-6*
2002 Atlanta Falcons 8 19 23 16 9-6-1*
2003 Atlanta Falcons 30 32 29 32 5-11
2004 San Diego Chargers 11 18 3 31 12-4*
2005 San Diego Chargers 13 13 1 28 9-7
2007 Dallas Cowboys 13 9 6 13 13-3*
2008 Dallas Cowboys 20 8 12 5 9-7
2011 Houston Texans 4 2 4 3 10-6*
* Denotes a playoff berth.

Maybe the Texans are on the verge of becoming a defensive football team that constantly clamps down on opponents. But it’s also possible we see some sort of regression.

The Texans aren’t engaging in that idea, nor should they be.

“I think those kind of comparisons are not really fair,” Barwin said. “Every year is different. Every team is different. I don’t think you can really use those stats to say we’re not going to make the playoffs because Wade only did it once on the last five teams he coached.”

“We’ve got a good football team, a well-rounded football team.”

It’s true.

The one big question is about a new guard and tackle on the right side of the offensive line. The Texans won a playoff game with a rookie quarterback at the helm and will have Matt Schaub back in place. As they defend their first division crown, their competition all has bigger questions.

The Texans proved to have a deep defense that controlled a lot of games last season. They expect to do even more of that.

“I think with the players we have, we’re confident we’re only going to get better and improve,” said Cushing. “Last year we were still learning our defense in camp and through the first couple games of the season. Now we’ve got OTAs and a full season under our belt. We have a ton of confidence.”
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Old 06-07-2012   #2
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Default Re: Wade: Year 2..........Boom or Bust?

Couldn't fit the whole quote but JJ's comment was sig worthy. So true. So true.
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Old 06-07-2012   #3
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Default Re: Wade: Year 2..........Boom or Bust?

Quote:
“He hasn’t talked about it at all and I don’t see any reason that would happen here,” Watt said. “If that’s the true stat, then we’re going to change that stat. Because we won’t let that happen. We were No. 2 last year, this year we want No. 1.”
Why do people keep saying this? We did not finish number 2 overall in points allowed, we were #4. At one point we were #2 during the season, but fell a bit towards the end. Still a top 5 defense, which is good enough for any reasonable fan or coach.
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Old 06-07-2012   #4
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Default Re: Wade: Year 2..........Boom or Bust?

Last year, with Schaub, AJ, & Foster, we were on pace for another league leading offense, & those guys only played 2 games together.

& that's playing a top 10 defense in more games than not.

If this defense, with Brooks coming at them, & Antonio coming to get them, & Watt coming to get them, & Barwing... & Cush... blah, blah, blah is going to be what we need them to be, our offense has to be able to get out to an early lead & keep the pedal to the metal. Something we've never done on a consistent basis.
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Old 06-07-2012   #5
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Default Re: Wade: Year 2..........Boom or Bust?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
Why do people keep saying this? We did not finish number 2 overall in points allowed, we were #4. At one point we were #2 during the season, but fell a bit towards the end. Still a top 5 defense, which is good enough for any reasonable fan or coach.
Because the standard is total yards. Been that way for a while. I understand your point about points.

But the team #1 vs yards allowed will be crowned the #1 defense.
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Old 06-07-2012   #6
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Default Re: Wade: Year 2..........Boom or Bust?

The Texans will have the #1 defense next year ... my fantasy draft says so.
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Old 06-07-2012   #7
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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Because the standard is total yards. Been that way for a while. I understand your point about points.

But the team #1 vs yards allowed will be crowned the #1 defense.
IMO it should be about the average ranking of several categories. Ut shouldn't be one category Because of the different factors outside their control that can affect some if their stats.
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Old 06-07-2012   #8
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Default Re: Wade: Year 2..........Boom or Bust?

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IMO it should be about the average ranking of several categories. Ut shouldn't be one category Because of the different factors outside their control that can affect some if their stats.
Exactly. There should be numerous categories. One stat is mileading. Team A could be a defense that allows an offense to pick up 500 yards a game, but only surrenders 10 points per game due to turnovers and strong defensive play when it matters. There could be another team, Team B, whose defense surrenders only 200 yards of offense but 30 points per game becuase their offense continuously turns it over in the redzone. Which Defense is better?

According to the yards issue, Team B is better. On points, Team A is better. Therefore several categories need to be examined.
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Old 06-07-2012   #9
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Default Re: Wade: Year 2..........Boom or Bust?

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
Why do people keep saying this? We did not finish number 2 overall in points allowed, we were #4.
Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Because the standard is total yards. Been that way for a while. I understand your point about points.

But the team #1 vs yards allowed will be crowned the #1 defense.
Points allowed are not always on the defense. Offensive turnovers. Special teams. Take the playoff game versus the Ravens. Was that 2 yard TD drive on the defense or the special teams? Points aren't as indicative of a defense's performance as yards allowed.
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Old 06-07-2012   #10
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Default Re: Wade: Year 2..........Boom or Bust?

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points allowed are not always on the defense. Offensive turnovers. Special teams. Take the playoff game versus the ravens. Was that 2 yard td drive on the defense or the special teams? Points aren't as indicative of a defense's performance as yards allowed.
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Old 06-08-2012   #11
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Default Re: Wade: Year 2..........Boom or Bust?

BOOM!!!

I know what the stats say about Wade's second year as DC and defensive turnarounds. That said, he had no real offseason last year and I beleive it was JJ Watt that said Wade had only installed about 75% of his last year because of not having OTA's and such.
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Old 06-08-2012   #12
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Default Re: Wade: Year 2..........Boom or Bust?

I believe the defense will be a beast this year.
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Old 06-08-2012   #13
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Default Re: Wade: Year 2..........Boom or Bust?

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Originally Posted by Texan_Bill View Post
BOOM!!!

I know what the stats say about Wade's second year as DC and defensive turnarounds. That said, he had no real offseason last year and I beleive it was JJ Watt that said Wade had only installed about 75% of his last year because of not having OTA's and such.
It always worries me somewhat when coaches claim they have only installed X% of their playbook and how they are going to install the rest of it next season. It worked the way you had it, so why change things? Look what happened to Frank Bush when he decided it was time to get complicated.

That said, I do trust in Wade and am excited for this season, especially as I think we now have a lot more versatility in our pass rush rotation.
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Old 06-08-2012   #14
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Default Re: Wade: Year 2..........Boom or Bust?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texan_Bill View Post
BOOM!!!

I know what the stats say about Wade's second year as DC and defensive turnarounds. That said, he had no real offseason last year and I beleive it was JJ Watt that said Wade had only installed about 75% of his last year because of not having OTA's and such.
These stats really have no corelation.
They failed to take into account a lot of things:

1. Change in personnel.

2. Serveral teams made good strides in the first year and ended up with a better record than the year before Wade joined the team. They were rewarded with a heavier schedule in Wade's second year.

3. Points allowed could be due to special team play or INTs or fumbles by the offense. Also a down year by the offense can affect the defense as well (Falcons with and without Michael Vick, for example.)

4. A slight decrease in ranking doesn't really tell you anything. On occasions, the team allowed fewer points or yards in the second year, but the ranking still went down.

5. There are actual increase in performance on some teams.

...
In summary, these stats mean squat!
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Old 06-08-2012   #15
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Default Re: Wade: Year 2..........Boom or Bust?

May I offer this link up as a reminder to why the "second year jinx" is quite misleading. I think it's been posted here before, but seemed very relavent to this particular discussion.

http://www.battleredblog.com/2012/4/...llips-year-two
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Last edited by Perki-Perk; 06-08-2012 at 03:55 PM. Reason: oops
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Old 06-08-2012   #16
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Default Re: Wade: Year 2..........Boom or Bust?

All this second year stuff is a bunch of hooey. I've read this same line of reasoning in at leat ten different articles since Phillips came to Houston. It figures that Kuharsky would regurgitate it as his own sooner or later.
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Old 06-08-2012   #17
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Default Re: Wade: Year 2..........Boom or Bust?

I wonder what we'd think of this "hooey" if Wade was coaching for the Jags, or the Titans...

Or if their coaches had shown a pattern of second year dips.....
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Old 06-08-2012   #18
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Default Re: Wade: Year 2..........Boom or Bust?

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Originally Posted by welsh texan View Post
It always worries me somewhat when coaches claim they have only installed X% of their playbook and how they are going to install the rest of it next season. It worked the way you had it, so why change things? Look what happened to Frank Bush when he decided it was time to get complicated.

That said, I do trust in Wade and am excited for this season, especially as I think we now have a lot more versatility in our pass rush rotation.
Just stick with the missionary position, it works don't it? I prefer a more varied "playbook".
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Old 06-08-2012   #19
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Default Re: Wade: Year 2..........Boom or Bust?

I prefer 3-4 d and Phillips version even more. However, if players on offense comparable to defense, offense should win every time. The O knows where the play is going and dictates the action. Wade is successfull because he convinces his guys THEY dictate the action. His daddy was successfull as he also was able to convince his guys they could outperform the competition. As someone slightly famous once said "you can't underestimate the heart of a champion." Bum believed it way before Rudy.
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Old 06-08-2012   #20
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Default Re: Wade: Year 2..........Boom or Bust?

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Originally Posted by welsh texan View Post
It always worries me somewhat when coaches claim they have only installed X% of their playbook and how they are going to install the rest of it next season. It worked the way you had it, so why change things? Look what happened to Frank Bush when he decided it was time to get complicated.

That said, I do trust in Wade and am excited for this season, especially as I think we now have a lot more versatility in our pass rush rotation.
Let me understand this... you're equating Frank Bush to Wade Phillips?
say it ain't so....
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