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Old 04-23-2012   #1
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Default Revisiting the 2009 Draft's First Round

"They" say you have to wait 3 years to judge a draft, and while Rick Smith et al hit a home run with our 2009 draft, I wanted to revisit the 2009 First Round to gauge how well the teams/the league did...

I'm interested in determining how many of these first round picks are/were misses ... who's on your list as a miss from this list?


1 Lions Matthew Stafford QB
2 Rams Jason Smith OT
3 Chiefs Tyson Jackson DE
4 Seahawks Aaron Curry OLB
5 Jets Mark Sanchez QB
6 Bengals Andre Smith OT
7 Raiders Darrius Heyward-Bey WR
8 Jaguars Eugene Monroe OT
9 Packers B.J. Raji DT
10 49ers Michael Crabtree WR
11 Bills Aaron Maybin DE
12 Broncos Knowshon Moreno RB
13 Redskins Brian Orakpo DE
14 Saints Malcolm Jenkins CB
15 Texans Brian Cushing OLB
16 Chargers Larry English DE
17 Buccaneers Josh Freeman QB
18 Broncos Robert Ayers LB
19 Eagles Jeremy Maclin WR
20 Lions Brandon PettigrewTE
21 Browns Alex Mack C
22 Vikings Percy Harvin WR
23 Ravens Michael Oher OT
24 Falcons Peria Jerry DT
25 Dolphins Vontae Davis CB
26 Packers Clay Matthews OLB
27 Colts Donald Brown RB
28 Bills Eric Wood C
29 Giants Hakeem Nicks WR
30 Titans Kenny Britt WR
31 Cardinals Chris Wells RB
32 Steelers Evander Hood DT

Last edited by Playoffs; 04-23-2012 at 03:35 PM.
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Old 04-23-2012   #2
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Default Re: Revisiting the 2009 Draft's First Round

sorry to be a bit off topic. But seeing "26 Packers Clay Matthews OLB" Makes me feel good about our pick this year .

Also, I won't say an exact number. But not too many misses that I can see.
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Old 04-23-2012   #3
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Default Re: Revisiting the 2009 Draft's First Round

Quote:
Originally Posted by Playoffs View Post
"They" say you have to wait 3 years to judge a draft, and while Rick Smith et al hit a home run with our 2009 draft, I wanted to revisit the 2009 First Round to gauge how well the teams/the league did...

I'm interested in determining how many of these first round picks are/were misses ... who's on your list as a miss from this list?


1 Lions Matthew Stafford QB
2 Rams Jason Smith OT
3 Chiefs Tyson Jackson DE
4 Seahawks Aaron Curry OLB
5 Jets Mark Sanchez QB
6 Bengals Andre Smith OT
7 Raiders Darrius Heyward-Bey WR
8 Jaguars Eugene Monroe OT
9 Packers B.J. Raji DT
10 49ers Michael Crabtree WR
11 Bills Aaron Maybin DE
12 Broncos Knowshon Moreno RB
13 Redskins Brian Orakpo DE
14 Saints Malcolm Jenkins CB
15 TexansBrian Cushing OLB
16 Chargers Larry English DE
17 Buccaneers Josh Freeman QB
18 Broncos Robert Ayers LB
19 Eagles Jeremy Maclin WR
20 Lions Brandon PettigrewTE
21 Browns Alex Mack C
22 Vikings Percy Harvin WR
23 Ravens Michael Oher OT
24 Falcons Peria Jerry DT
25 Dolphins Vontae Davis CB
26 Packers Clay Matthews OLB
27 Colts Donald Brown RB
28 Bills Eric Wood C
29 Giants Hakeem Nicks WR
30 Titans Kenny Britt WR
31 Cardinals Chris Wells RB
32 Steelers Evander Hood DT
Those in bold are the ones I look at and think, "Bombed out & depleted."
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Old 04-23-2012   #4
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Default Re: Revisiting the 2009 Draft's First Round

2 Rams Jason Smith OT
3 Chiefs Tyson Jackson DE
4 Seahawks Aaron Curry OLB
5 Jets Mark Sanchez QB
6 Bengals Andre Smith OT
7 Raiders Darrius Heyward-Bey WR
10 49ers Michael Crabtree WR
11 Bills Aaron Maybin DE
12 Broncos Knowshon Moreno RB
16 Chargers Larry English DE
24 Falcons Peria Jerry DT
27 Colts Donald Brown RB
28 Bills Eric Wood C
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Old 04-23-2012   #5
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Default Re: Revisiting the 2009 Draft's First Round

Forgot the guy from the Chargers. Also falls under the bombed out and depleted category. There are a couple of other guys but I would say it might be too early to list them. Interesting that a lot are in the early first round.
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Old 04-23-2012   #6
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Default Re: Revisiting the 2009 Draft's First Round

If you included the Jets and Broncos that would be 9 out of the first 12, damn.
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Old 04-23-2012   #7
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Default Re: Revisiting the 2009 Draft's First Round

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Originally Posted by tielahr View Post
sorry to be a bit off topic. But seeing "26 Packers Clay Matthews OLB" Makes me feel good about our pick this year .

Also, I won't say an exact number. But not too many misses that I can see.
Also, seeing Hakeem Nicks and Kenny Britt go after makes me feel good about our chances to draft a legit #2 WR.
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Old 04-23-2012   #8
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Default Re: Revisiting the 2009 Draft's First Round

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Originally Posted by SW H-TOWN View Post
Forgot the guy from the Chargers. Also falls under the bombed out and depleted category. There are a couple of other guys but I would say it might be too early to list them. Interesting that a lot are in the early first round.
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If you included the Jets and Broncos that would be 9 out of the first 12, damn.
Some might say that these top 10-12 players going to a bad team could cause them to under-perform or ruin them. While going in the bottom half of the draft puts you on a better team giving you a better chance to succeed. That logic makes sense to me.
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Old 04-23-2012   #9
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Default Re: Revisiting the 2009 Draft's First Round

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Originally Posted by SW H-TOWN View Post
Those in bold are the ones I look at and think, "Bombed out & depleted."
I think you've got to put Knowshon Moreno and Donald Brown in the running for potential busts, as well.

I don't have great feelings about Michael Oher or Josh Freeman, either. Freeman has been looked at as a QB of the future but he looked like he took a giant step back last season.
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Old 04-23-2012   #10
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Default Re: Revisiting the 2009 Draft's First Round

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Originally Posted by Blake View Post
Some might say that these top 10-12 players going to a bad team could cause them to under-perform or ruin them. While going in the bottom half of the draft puts you on a better team giving you a better chance to succeed. That logic makes sense to me.
Very valid point. It would be interesting to do the same study from 06-09 to see if it is a trend or an exception to the rule.
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Old 04-23-2012   #11
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Default Re: Revisiting the 2009 Draft's First Round

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I think you've got to put Knowshon Moreno and Donald Brown in the running for potential busts, as well.

I don't have great feelings about Michael Oher or Josh Freeman, either. Freeman has been looked at as a QB of the future but he looked like he took a giant step back last season.
You are right about the RB's, also the Bills C. The thing is that Brown averaged 4.8 ypc last year. I guess I am a little conservative when putting guys on the bombed out & depleted list. I look at the 49's QB and I think well maybe Dirty Sanchez can turn it around. I think they say grade a draft 5 years after if I am not mistaken but this is a VERY good thread.
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Old 04-23-2012   #12
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Default Re: Revisiting the 2009 Draft's First Round

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Also, seeing Hakeem Nicks and Kenny Britt go after makes me feel good about our chances to draft a legit #2 WR.
Yep.

But we might find that guy later in the draft, too. In 2009, the Steelers picked up Mike Wallace in the 3rd.

In 2008, Jordy Nelson, Jerome Simpson, Desean Jackson were picked in the 2nd round and Mario Manningham and Harry Douglas were picked in the 3rd.
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Old 04-23-2012   #13
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Default Re: Revisiting the 2009 Draft's First Round

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Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
Yep.

But we might find that guy later in the draft, too. In 2009, the Steelers picked up Mike Wallace in the 3rd.

In 2008, Jordy Nelson, Jerome Simpson, Desean Jackson were picked in the 2nd round and Mario Manningham and Harry Douglas were picked in the 3rd.
I would take a Desean jackson/ Jordy Nelson in the 2nd any day of the week.

Plus finding someone like Mike Wallace in the 3rd would be killer.


I'm still a Coby Fleener guy though
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Old 04-23-2012   #14
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Default Re: Revisiting the 2009 Draft's First Round

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I would take a Desean jackson/ Jordy Nelson in the 2nd any day of the week.

Plus finding someone like Mike Wallace in the 3rd would be killer.


I'm still a Coby Fleener guy though
I'm on the Fleener bandwagon, too. I've heard some scouts are saying he's getting over-valued and over-rated but I think he'd be a beast in our system.

I wouldn't mind Wright (5'10", 196#). He's not the kind of receiver Kubiak usually likes. And because of that, a lot of people are discounting Wright. But there were stories that Kubiak liked Ted Ginn (5'11", 180#) for this offense.

I can't wait to see how it shakes out.
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Old 04-23-2012   #15
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Default Re: Revisiting the 2009 Draft's First Round

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2 Rams Jason Smith OT
3 Chiefs Tyson Jackson DE
4 Seahawks Aaron Curry OLB
5 Jets Mark Sanchez QB
6 Bengals Andre Smith OT
7 Raiders Darrius Heyward-Bey WR
10 49ers Michael Crabtree WR
11 Bills Aaron Maybin DE
12 Broncos Knowshon Moreno RB
16 Chargers Larry English DE
24 Falcons Peria Jerry DT
27 Colts Donald Brown RB
28 Bills Eric Wood C
Eric Wood? Guy has been the Bills starting C since he got drafted.
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Old 04-23-2012   #16
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Default Re: Revisiting the 2009 Draft's First Round

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Eric Wood? Guy has been the Bills starting C since he got drafted.
He's started 69% of games for them and hasn't started 16 in any season, including only 9 last year.

Admittedly, my exposure to the Bills' starting C is limited, and I know he was highly thought of coming out, but he's either been hurt or ineffective.
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Old 04-23-2012   #17
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Default Re: Revisiting the 2009 Draft's First Round

Guys who wouldn't be taken where they were(or before) if there was a do over in bold

1 Lions Matthew Stafford QB
2 Rams Jason Smith OT
3 Chiefs Tyson Jackson DE
4 Seahawks Aaron Curry OLB
5 Jets Mark Sanchez QB
6 Bengals Andre Smith OT
7 Raiders Darrius Heyward-Bey WR
8 Jaguars Eugene Monroe OT

9 Packers B.J. Raji DT
10 49ers Michael Crabtree WR
11 Bills Aaron Maybin DE
12 Broncos Knowshon Moreno RB

13 Redskins Brian Orakpo DE
14 Saints Malcolm Jenkins CB
15 TexansBrian Cushing OLB
16 Chargers Larry English DE
17 Buccaneers Josh Freeman QB
18 Broncos Robert Ayers LB
19 Eagles Jeremy Maclin WR
20 Lions Brandon PettigrewTE

21 Browns Alex Mack C
22 Vikings Percy Harvin WR
23 Ravens Michael Oher OT
24 Falcons Peria Jerry DT
25 Dolphins Vontae Davis CB
26 Packers Clay Matthews OLB
27 Colts Donald Brown RB
28 Bills Eric Wood C
29 Giants Hakeem Nicks WR
30 Titans Kenny Britt WR
31 Cardinals Chris Wells RB
32 Steelers Evander Hood DT
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Old 04-23-2012   #18
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Default Re: Revisiting the 2009 Draft's First Round

I remember Aaron Curry was supposed to be a flat out monster can't miss prospect...
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Old 04-23-2012   #19
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Default Re: Revisiting the 2009 Draft's First Round

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He's started 69% of games for them and hasn't started 16 in any season, including only 9 last year.

Admittedly, my exposure to the Bills' starting C is limited, and I know he was highly thought of coming out, but he's either been hurt or ineffective.
Eric Wood has been great, when he plays. He has missed 15 games out of 48 in the past 3 years, all due to injury. I can't fault the guy for getting hurt though, so I wouldn't downrate him due to that. He has the skill to be a great center/guard for years to come, but his body may not hold up.
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Old 04-23-2012   #20
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Default Re: Revisiting the 2009 Draft's First Round

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I remember Aaron Curry was supposed to be a flat out monster can't miss prospect...
Traded to the Raiders in October for a 7th round pick in 2012 and a conditional pick in 2013.

Can't miss.

I still remember his stupid spearing penalty on Jacoby Jones during a punt return.

But his stats don't look that bad last year. He had 1 less tackle than Cushing and he scored 2 TDs on fumble recoveries.
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