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Old 04-25-2012   #81
disaacks3
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Default Re: Compensatory picks

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
If things don't change, we can count on getting 4 comp picks next year, which would give us 11 in the draft. I think that frees us up to use a future pick or two this year to get some more picks. Maybe send our 2013 3rd and 2012 6th to get a late 2nd. We need some impact players to make a deep playoff run, and extra 2nd or 3rd round picks would go a long ways towards that.
I like the way you think. Rick, get this man in the war room!
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Old 04-25-2012   #82
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Default Re: Compensatory picks

While I would love to do the trade DutchRudder suggests, it just wouldn't happen.

A 2013 3rd round pick is considered to be valued as a 4th round pick in this years draft by most systems. Throwing in a 4th round pick and a 6th round pick will definitely *NOT* get a team to trade a late 2nd round pick.

Looking back at previous trades involving a future 3rd round pick, I found 2 similar trades.

2005
64(2nd) = 84(3rd), 195(6th), next years 3rd

2009
91 (late third) = 137 (5th round, but first pick in 5th), 213 (7th round, but early), next years 3rd

We should either expect to have to trade our current 3rd round pick, a late round pick, and next year's 3rd for a 2nd, or expect to get at best a 3rd round pick, and that is only likely if we toss in a 2nd late round pick (say 5th round).

Overall I wouldn't kill the Texans if they trade away a future pick, but don't expect them to get equal value for a future pick as if it was a pick this year, it just doesn't happen that way. One reason the Patriots often trade for future picks is they can find a team desperate and therefore are able to get 2nd or 3rd round picks in a future trade for 3rd or 4th round picks in the current draft. If anything, that's what a good team does. It takes advantage of desperate teams, rather than acting desperate itself.
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Old 04-25-2012   #83
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Default Re: Compensatory picks

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Originally Posted by MidtownMikey View Post
While I would love to do the trade DutchRudder suggests, it just wouldn't happen.

A 2013 3rd round pick is considered to be valued as a 4th round pick in this years draft by most systems. Throwing in a 4th round pick and a 6th round pick will definitely *NOT* get a team to trade a late 2nd round pick.

Looking back at previous trades involving a future 3rd round pick, I found 2 similar trades.

2005
64(2nd) = 84(3rd), 195(6th), next years 3rd

2009
91 (late third) = 137 (5th round, but first pick in 5th), 213 (7th round, but early), next years 3rd

We should either expect to have to trade our current 3rd round pick, a late round pick, and next year's 3rd for a 2nd, or expect to get at best a 3rd round pick, and that is only likely if we toss in a 2nd late round pick (say 5th round).

Overall I wouldn't kill the Texans if they trade away a future pick, but don't expect them to get equal value for a future pick as if it was a pick this year, it just doesn't happen that way. One reason the Patriots often trade for future picks is they can find a team desperate and therefore are able to get 2nd or 3rd round picks in a future trade for 3rd or 4th round picks in the current draft. If anything, that's what a good team does. It takes advantage of desperate teams, rather than acting desperate itself.
I usually make fun of people who post once every six months because they have a tendancy to post something idiotic. This is not the case. Good job. You may now post once every 3 months man.

Mike
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Old 04-25-2012   #84
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Default Re: Compensatory picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by MidtownMikey View Post
While I would love to do the trade DutchRudder suggests, it just wouldn't happen.

A 2013 3rd round pick is considered to be valued as a 4th round pick in this years draft by most systems. Throwing in a 4th round pick and a 6th round pick will definitely *NOT* get a team to trade a late 2nd round pick.

Looking back at previous trades involving a future 3rd round pick, I found 2 similar trades.

2005
64(2nd) = 84(3rd), 195(6th), next years 3rd

2009
91 (late third) = 137 (5th round, but first pick in 5th), 213 (7th round, but early), next years 3rd

We should either expect to have to trade our current 3rd round pick, a late round pick, and next year's 3rd for a 2nd, or expect to get at best a 3rd round pick, and that is only likely if we toss in a 2nd late round pick (say 5th round).

Overall I wouldn't kill the Texans if they trade away a future pick, but don't expect them to get equal value for a future pick as if it was a pick this year, it just doesn't happen that way. One reason the Patriots often trade for future picks is they can find a team desperate and therefore are able to get 2nd or 3rd round picks in a future trade for 3rd or 4th round picks in the current draft. If anything, that's what a good team does. It takes advantage of desperate teams, rather than acting desperate itself.
Ok, I admit a late second is a bit ambitious, but a 3rd is possible.

2007: Pats trade 91 (late 3rd) for Oakland's 7th (211) and future 3rd (69) in 2008.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft0...ory?id=2850327

This is overpaying for 121, but another example:
2007: Denver Broncos: Acquire pick No. 121 (fourth).
Minnesota Vikings: Acquire picks No. 176 (sixth round), No. 233 (seventh round) and the Broncos' third-rounder (73) in 2008.
*Minny traded the 73rd pick to the Chiefs as part of the Jared Allen trade, who selected Jamaal Charles with it.

It just goes to show that draft pick valuations are all over the place. The Vikes got more out of 121 than the Pats did out of 91. Just gotta find a GM that is frazzled or drunk and see if they will go for something like that. Offer up a 2013 3rd and a 2011 5th to see if you can get a mid 3rd in 2011 and take another player. Someone out there will probably bite.
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Old 04-25-2012   #85
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Default Re: Compensatory picks

Good point on the 2007 trades. I just noticed the 2009 trade for a 3rd rounder as the most recent example, and then went back to 2005 to find an example involving trading a future 3rd round pick and others for a 2nd round pick.

Values are all based on the GM and will be different for every team and every situation, but I do like your proposed 5th + future 3rd for 3rd. That's closer to what I could see the Patriots taking if we offered (of course their 3rd round pick is pretty late at #93). Patriots are probably our best bet at finding a suitor interested in stockpiling future picks, though there is always the question of whether we want to help them even more.

When looking at trading away future picks though, usually it is a team with a bad record from the season before (in my 2009 example, the Seahawks had a 4-12 record season before, in your 2007 example, the Raiders had a 4-12 record season before, both finishing 5-11 in the next season). Therefore the team trading for the future pick likely believes the team will once again have a pick early in that round in the following year.

The one example of overpaying you gave is the one example I noticed of a team with a winning record trading away a future pick (Broncos were 9-7). Again makes me a little worried about the value we would get for a future pick when I think most of the league at least sees us as a lock again to win the AFC South.

Overall I think our best value for trading draft picks will come with trading down current picks, not trading away future picks. I have liked examples you have given in other threads Dutchrudder of the Texans trading out of the 1st round.
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