Compensatory picks

[DerekLee1]

Based on last year's compensatory picks, we should get at least a 3 should Mario leave. Should Myers and any others leave, throw in a 4th. Maybe the plan is to trade up and fill holes with youth in the 2nd 3rd and 4th rounds.

[Doppelganger]

Originally Posted by DerekLee1

Based on last year's compensatory picks, we should get at least a 3 should Mario leave. Should Myers and any others leave, throw in a 4th. Maybe the plan is to trade up and fill holes with youth in the 2nd 3rd and 4th rounds.

That's not the way Compensatory picks work. Compensatory picks are awarded the year after based on a complex, secret formula. From what I have been able to gather these are some of the factors:

1. Players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs are not counted.
2. Players earning minimum salaries do not count.
3. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.
4. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed. Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts.

For example. We lost Dunta Robinson in 2010 but signed Wade Smith and Neil Rackers. DR was a true FA lost and Smith/Rackers were true FAs signed. Smith cancelled out DR and Rackers was a +1 for Htown.

Htown did not get a compensatory pick for DR becuase their value was +1. In order to get any pick of any kind, they would have needed to lose 2 additional FAs. Since that did not happen, Htown received zilch.

But, you may be asking: Doppelganger, the Texans did get the final pick in 2011(a year later) wasn't that a compensatory pick?

In this case no. Another NFL rule is that there are only a handful of compensatory picks per year. In this case there were no other compensatory picks awarded in the 7th round for 2011. Thus since picks were available, they were handed out to teams based on draft order until they ran out. Texans happened to get the last pick due to record.

So, in your scenario, if we lose MW but sign any other FA, we get zilch. Its all about a net loss/gain and then it goes to contracts to determine value.

[Dutchrudder]

Originally Posted by Doppelganger

But, you may be asking: Doppelganger, the Texans did get the final pick in 2011(a year later) wasn't that a compensatory pick?

In this case no. Another NFL rule is that there are only a handful of compensatory picks per year. In this case there were no other compensatory picks awarded in the 7th round for 2011. Thus since picks were available, they were handed out to teams based on draft order until they ran out. Texans happened to get the last pick due to record.

So, in your scenario, if we lose MW but sign any other FA, we get zilch. Its all about a net loss/gain and then it goes to contracts to determine value.

There is a separate category for the type of pick the Texans got in 2011, it's called "supplemental compensatory picks". That's the type of comp pick we received. Any picks awarded for lost players are simply "compensatory picks."

[DerekLee1]

If we lose Mario, Dreessen, Brisiel, Myers, Barber, Allen and Rackers, we're -7. We don't have any money to go after any other FA's. Say we're able to convince Rackers and Brisiel to stay but lose the others. We're still -5.

Now, based on last year's compensatory picks, if the Panthers can lose Peppers and Feeley and get a 3rd, 6th and 7th, I think Mario, Dreessen and Myers would warrant better than that.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2011/tracke...-round-input:3

[Vinny]

Originally Posted by DerekLee1

If we lose Mario, Dreessen, Brisiel, Myers, Barber, Allen and Rackers, we're -7. We don't have any money to go after any other FA's. Say we're able to convince Rackers and Brisiel to stay but lose the others. We're still -5.

Now, based on last year's compensatory picks, if the Panthers can lose Peppers and Feeley and get a 3rd, 6th and 7th, I think Mario, Dreessen and Myers would warrant better than that.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2011/tracke...-round-input:3

as Doppelganger eluded to, it's not as simple as that. Nobody really knows the formula. There was a guy on KFFL that got pretty damn close every year though.

[keyser]

Well, Mario is about as certain as you can get to a 3rd round compensatory pick, assuming the Texans don't blow it by signing someone that would knock out the pick. The Texans' FO needs to keep this in mind for any free agents signed this year. I'd hate to see some case where they sign some low-level FA who they don't need badly, and that person effectively costs them a 3rd round pick.

For our numbers, if we look at the 16 players listed as FAs on the Texans' website, there are only 4 that I would think are pretty certain to make the cut as far as counting toward compensatory picks (if they leave): Brisiel, Dreessen, Myers, and Williams. Some others very well might also, but the FO has to be careful about how many higher-priced people they sign. They could easily turn around and lose some good compensatory picks if they're not careful. For example that third-string QB they might look to sign for insurance would get a lot more expensive if he also costs a mid-round pick.

Back to Doppleganger's original post, I think there is one other provision where if you have the same number of people signed as lost, you can still get a compensatory pick if the value of those lost is significantly greater than those signed. If I remember, in this case, it's a much later round pick. For us, that could mean that even if we sign the same number of FAs that we lose, we could still get a 7th or 6th for Mario, which would still stink.

Here's the blog of they guy who used to do the compensatory pick analysis. He didn't do them last year, but if you look at his archives, I think he's got the details of the formula worked out as much as anyone publicly as been able to figure them out.

Oh, and one other point - I'm pretty sure that compensatory picks can't be traded. Not sure if that's what DerekLee1 meant (or if you meant other trades that can be made since we do have compensatories).

[gtexan02]

If we sign Meyers, he cancels out Williams, right? Assuming we don't lose others

[welsh texan]

Originally Posted by gtexan02

If we sign Meyers, he cancels out Williams, right? Assuming we don't lose others

No, resigning your own doesn't count against. Resigning someone else's does.

I wonder if that plays into the way a team thinks about FA at all? Like if you've got 1 guy who's gonna be marginal to make the team in camp, you might not want to take him cos you're giving up a 3rd round pick for him??

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by gtexan02

If we sign Meyers, he cancels out Williams, right? Assuming we don't lose others

No, Myers is ours..

The issue is how many UFA we lose relative to how many UFA (from the other 31 teams) we sign... Beyond that, it's about the level of pay and perhaps performance that factors in. Odds are good that the Texans will get some compensation this year... perhaps multiple picks but it is way too early to know what will happen.

Free agents have to qualify as significant... For instance, I believe Neil Rackers' contract to qualify two years ago. Hopefully the Vickers deal counts as well. Though we would get next to nothing for Vickers, he would make the current tally 2-0... which, as things stand at this moment, would mean a 3rd round pick for Mario.

[gtexan02]

I thought once they hit the open market they aren't considered ours anymore

[majestrate]

Think of it like "if 2011 team = 2012 team, no impact; if 2011 team != 2012 team, impact"

[ArlingtonTexan]

In terms getting compensatory picks, what you really want is for the Bulman, Barberish type guys to sign qualifying offers to get your net loss up. Just out of functioning for 2012, the Texans wil probably sign two or three guys who qualify. For me, if comes down to a guy to help me win in 2012 versus pick number 100 overall in the 2013 draft then give me the player now.

[keyser]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

Free agents have to qualify as significant... For instance, I believe Neil Rackers' contract to qualify two years ago. Hopefully the Vickers deal counts as well. Though we would get next to nothing for Vickers, he would make the current tally 2-0... which, as things stand at this moment, would mean a 3rd round pick for Mario.

I thought we released Vickers? Players you release do not count, only those whose contract ran out/was voided. So, when Winston signs somewhere, he won't help us, either.

That's part of what worries me. I expect we are going to have to sign some people to replace not just the FAs who leave, but also the ones we released or will release.

[edo783]

If we lose them this year, then aren't the compensatory picks given in next years draft?

[ChampionTexan]

Originally Posted by gtexan02

I thought once they hit the open market they aren't considered ours anymore

Yeah, but if that were the case, then we'd be in line to be awarded up a pick for losing him, and then lose it when we signed him back. (But no, it doesn't work that way)

[keyser]

Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan

In terms getting compensatory picks, what you really want is for the Bulman, Barberish type guys to sign qualifying offers to get your net loss up. Just out of functioning for 2012, the Texans wil probably sign two or three guys who qualify. For me, if comes down to a guy to help me win in 2012 versus pick number 100 overall in the 2013 draft then give me the player now.

That all depends. Sign someone critical like Joseph or Manning and I am fine not thinking much about the compensatory implications. But, what if the decision comes down to:
- Sign some 2nd string lineman for $1 million and have to give up a top 100 pick next year
- Sign some 2nd string lineman for $650K and keep the top 100 pick
In that case, the second option looks a whole lot better than the first, even if the player's not quite as good. To say you don't worry about what you are losing in compensatory picks makes no sense - it's like placing no value on future draft picks.

[keyser]

Originally Posted by edo783

If we lose them this year, then aren't the compensatory picks given in next years draft?

Yes. Anything we get for Mario would be in the 2013 draft. I don't think we'll get any compensatory picks this year, since the Joseph, Manning (and maybe other) signings probably cancel whoever we lost (I don't even remember now if we lost anyone significant last year).

[ArlingtonTexan]

Originally Posted by keyser

That all depends. Sign someone critical like Joseph or Manning and I am fine not thinking much about the compensatory implications. But, what if the decision comes down to:
- Sign some 2nd string lineman for $1 million and have to give up a top 100 pick next year
- Sign some 2nd string lineman for $650K and keep the top 100 pick
In that case, the second option looks a whole lot better than the first, even if the player's not quite as good. To say you don't worry about what you are losing in compensatory picks makes no sense - it's like placing no value on future draft picks.

Well, I didn't say don't worry about them that at all, but I would not (not my call though) place getting that pick over winning in 2012. My guess is that there will be a situation or two where what you are talking about exactly happens. That assumes the Texans lose at least 3 or 4 players qualifying loses. Right now with only one, I would not handicap myself as GM trying make darn sure "got something" for Mario.

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by keyser

I thought we released Vickers.

Thanks. My mistake. Sorry to confuse the issue. Vickers was released so he does not qualify.

[TexanBacker93]

We need Mario to be healthy and have a dominant year this year. Unless we bring in Manning we should be in shape to get a 3rd round pick. I'd just hate to have him be hurt this season and then have 5 great years after that and we'd get nothing.