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Old 02-09-2012   #1
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Default Insider article favoring the Texans?

Saw one of those pesky ESPN Insider articles that apparently is favoring the texans to win the super bowl next year. I couldn't see it because I am not an insider, but if anyone could paste it for everyone to see.....that would be awesome!
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Old 02-09-2012   #2
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Default Re: Insider article favoring the Texans?

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Early values for Super Bowl XLVII
February, 8, 2012
Feb 8
10:03
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TexansAndy Lyons/Getty ImagesThe Houston Texans are sure to be a popular futures bet to win Super Bowl XLVII.

2012 look-ahead package:
Millman: Early Super Bowl XLVII values | Sprow: How Manning shifts the odds
numberFire: Projecting 2012 playoffs

Before "the drop" and "the catch" and "the phantom-D-on-the-touchdown" and "the proposal" and "the Gronk dancing shirtless" and all the other moments that made Super Bowl XLVI iconic, there was this small hint from a handicapper that the Giants were, at the least, on someone's radar: "I had them ranked one slot higher than the Jets at the end of last season, third-best performing team in the NFL (my order was Chargers, Steelers, Giants, Jets, Packers). They were the second-best offense, seventh-best defense. And when I ran my projected wins model for this year, they finished with the fifth-best record. Their only problem was INTs, but if they tighten things up …"

That was The Sports Boss, in a column I wrote about NFL futures last July, naming the 18-1 New York Giants as one of his best values on the preseason board. Kudos to you, Sports Boss, for being so prescient. Who cares if he also liked the New Orleans Saints (15-1), Minnesota Vikings (35-1) and New York Jets (14-1)? He had the right team at a good price and now, with the year over, he looks like he knew what he was talking about.

Futures are such an interesting bet because, when a team like the Giants wins, fans everywhere start thinking, "Oh man, the books must have gotten killed because such a long shot paid off." The truth is, not so much. Sure, they had to pay off a decent amount of bets at longish odds. But this year, think of how much that was balanced out by action on the Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers and every other team in the league. Books only have to pay out on one team; they get to collect on all the rest.

This year, thanks to labor peace and tranquility, NFL futures were posted by the Las Vegas Hotel (formerly the Las Vegas Hilton) with confidence the Monday before the conference title games. "By now," Ed Salmons, one of the LVH bookmakers, told me, "every team has some form of action."

So, to the questions on every bettor's mind: Which teams are the best values for Super Bowl XLVII, and which futures have already been hit hardest?

The first team to get hit at the LVH was the San Francisco 49ers, who were posted at 20-1 to win next year's Super Bowl. The bet? $500. That's $10,000 in liability on that bet alone, excluding any other bets that have been taken, but it's not enough to make the LVH move its number on San Fran yet. In fact, the Niners have been one of the teams that has received the most action in the past few weeks, and the number remains at 20-1. The Pats, at 7-1, are up there in bet totals with the Niners, but their number hasn't moved, either.

In fact, the biggest movers so far have been the Giants, from 20-1 to 15-1 and the Houston Texans, who opened at 15-1 and are now 12-1. (Going in the opposite direction are the Philadelphia Eagles, from 12-1 to 15-1, the Broncos from 50-1 to 60-1 and the Buffalo Bills, from 50-1 to 100-1.)

No one should be surprised by the action on the Texans. From now until kickoff on Sept. 6, they will be the choice of every sharp, square and closeted gambler for future value. I guarantee that this will be the one season win total bookmakers have the hardest time making, like the Detroit Lions last season, because so many people will have an opinion on this team. When I asked the Sports Boss for his early Super Bowl XLVII values -- because why shouldn't lightning strike twice? -- this is the rundown he gave me:

Texans 15-1: "I had them at No. 1 in my performance ratings on the full regular season, even after Matt Schaub went down they hung on. Obviously that shows just how well they were playing when he was under center, as they were on pace to be the best team in the five years I have been running these numbers. They need a healthy Schaub and Andre Johnson to play 16 and look out for a few more tweaks to that roster -- although they were an extremely well-rounded team as no area really stands out as a weakness. Their weakest unit was the No. 9 passing offense, but that is on the full season."
Here you go!
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Old 02-09-2012   #3
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Default Re: Insider article favoring the Texans?

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Here you go!
Thanks! Msr!
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Old 02-09-2012   #4
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Default Re: Insider article favoring the Texans?

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Old 02-09-2012   #5
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Default Re: Insider article favoring the Texans?

I remember back in 2006 or 2007, The Dolphins were favored to win the AFC East. They were 9-7 in 2005, but it's been down hill mostly since. They wild-catted their way into the play-offs, but other than that they've been up, down & side-ways with no clear direction.

It was a long road to get to where we are today, but the road to get to where we want to be ain't any shorter.

The Texans (imo) have had a hard time handling success. Heck, a two game win streak was luxury & 3 was a rarity.

If we have a winning season next year, it would be the first time in our teams history.
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Old 02-09-2012   #6
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Default Re: Insider article favoring the Texans?

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If we have a winning season next year, it would be the first time in our teams history.
Huh?
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Old 02-09-2012   #7
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Default Re: Insider article favoring the Texans?

Everyone thought those "Dream Team" Eagles were gonna take it all this year, too!

All these wild-eyed predictions do is produce wild-eyed expectations.

Just because we had a good season this year, that automatically means we'll be as good, if not better next year??

It doesn't work that way.

This is going to be one loooooooooooooooooooooooooong offseason. That I can safely predict.
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Old 02-09-2012   #8
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Default Re: Insider article favoring the Texans?

One thing seems certain to me: The Texans Defense has potential to be the absolute best and most dominating in the entire league. Better than the 49ers, Ravens, Giants, Steelers, any team out there.
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Old 02-09-2012   #9
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Default Re: Insider article favoring the Texans?

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Originally Posted by Bulls on Parade View Post
One thing seems certain to me: The Texans Defense has potential to be the absolute best and most dominating in the entire league. Better than the 49ers, Ravens, Giants, Steelers, any team out there.
I agree...if we can get a dominant NT and a ball hawking safety. These are two essential pieces that we will need to be head and shoulders above everyone else, imo.
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Old 02-09-2012   #10
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Default Re: Insider article favoring the Texans?

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Originally Posted by Bulls on Parade View Post
One thing seems certain to me: The Texans Defense has potential to be the absolute best and most dominating in the entire league. Better than the 49ers, Ravens, Giants, Steelers, any team out there.
That 49ers defense is an absolute beast. I have no idea of their contract status, but I think we'll be battling them neck and neck all year next year to be the best. The Steelers are getting long in the tooth as are the Ravens. We have a pretty young nucleus on our defense that if we can keep them healthy and together is going to be good for a long time.
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Old 02-09-2012   #11
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Default Re: Insider article favoring the Texans?

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Originally Posted by Bulls on Parade View Post
One thing seems certain to me: The Texans Defense has potential to be the absolute best and most dominating in the entire league. Better than the 49ers, Ravens, Giants, Steelers, any team out there.
It doesn't even have to be. I fully expect a regression next season from our defense, and still expect our team to be better than this past season's version with full seasons from Schuab, AJ, and Foster.
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Old 02-09-2012   #12
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Default Re: Insider article favoring the Texans?

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I remember back in 2006 or 2007, The Dolphins were favored to win the AFC East. They were 9-7 in 2005, but it's been down hill mostly since. They wild-catted their way into the play-offs, but other than that they've been up, down & side-ways with no clear direction.

It was a long road to get to where we are today, but the road to get to where we want to be ain't any shorter.

The Texans (imo) have had a hard time handling success. Heck, a two game win streak was luxury & 3 was a rarity.

If we have a winning season next year, it would be the first time in our teams history.
The Dolphins gimmicked their way to a playoff berth. There isn't a single thing that's gimmicky about the team the Texan's fielded this season. This team has been built from the ground up to be successful for several years.
I can't even begin to imagine what you mean by the bolded.
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Old 02-09-2012   #13
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Default Re: Insider article favoring the Texans?

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Huh?
I think TK meant, like back to back winning seasons.... I'm only guessin' of course!
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Old 02-09-2012   #14
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Default Re: Insider article favoring the Texans?

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If we have a winning season next year, it would be the first time in our teams history.

Huh?
My bad.. I meant it would be the first time we'd have back to back winning seasons.
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Old 02-09-2012   #15
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Default Re: Insider article favoring the Texans?

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That 49ers defense is an absolute beast. I have no idea of their contract status, but I think we'll be battling them neck and neck all year next year to be the best. The Steelers are getting long in the tooth as are the Ravens. We have a pretty young nucleus on our defense that if we can keep them healthy and together is going to be good for a long time.
The 49ers are in the same predicament as the Texans. They're young & their coach is inexperienced. They've had their 15 minutes... how will each individual player deal with that & how will the coach form a team with those individuals?

It's hard enough to get to the Super Bowl, it's harder to get close... then try to do better the next year.
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Old 02-09-2012   #16
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Default Re: Insider article favoring the Texans?

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I think TK meant, like back to back winning seasons.... I'm only guessin' of course!
Damn!! you really are more than a pretty face.
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Old 02-10-2012   #17
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Default Re: Insider article favoring the Texans?

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The 49ers are in the same predicament as the Texans. They're young & their coach is inexperienced. They've had their 15 minutes... how will each individual player deal with that & how will the coach form a team with those individuals?

It's hard enough to get to the Super Bowl, it's harder to get close... then try to do better the next year.
True, but they have a very nice mix of vets and youth much like the Texans on offense and defense. With Smith, Rogers possibly coming back, Willis, Whitner, and a few other guys on that defense I don't think youth will be a problem for them. I mentioned the defensive guys because that's what made that team really good this year. That and dominating the turnover battle. I want to say Goldson is a free agent along with Rogers who will be looking to get paid. Both of them will actually so it'll be key for them to try to retain those guys. That's going to be key more than anything for them in my opinion.

I'm with you on the dealing with success factor. That's just one of those things where you never know how teams will react. I like what I heard from our guys in saying that they were ready to start getting back to work immediately after the loss and plan on working out together in Houston. Both teams will have to learn how to play with a target on their back in the division. It'll be our first time and the Niners first time in a while. Kubiak's laid back approach would normally worry me in this regard, but I'm confident in the player leadership in staying the course and making sure guys are SUPER hungry.
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Old 02-10-2012   #18
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Default Re: Insider article favoring the Texans?

Wow. Really? Before Free Agency? Do they know if Texans will keep Mario too? What about the Draft? Will Texans nail both of their first two picks again? How about injured players rehabing to comeback, see Matt Schaub. Is he expected to be ready week one? Too many questions, yet to be answered, but don't let me stop anyone from investing their hard earner, or not so hard earned captial
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Old 02-11-2012   #19
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Thumbs down Re: Insider article favoring the Texans?

I dont take most of what ESPN...I mean BSPN as being anything to consider legitimate. If you have read most anything in the past.....its a load of crap.
Especially what they have written about or said about the Texans year after year.
Take what they say with a grain of salt......
Just warning ya.....
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Old 02-11-2012   #20
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Default Re: Insider article favoring the Texans?

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My bad.. I meant it would be the first time we'd have back to back winning seasons.
So what's the point? Last year was the first time we made the playoffs. Last year was the first time we had a elite defense. This team is at a point where we're about to see a LOT of "first times" happen and back to back winning seasons will be next.

This team isn't going anywhere, they are one of the youngest teams in the league and those young players are only going to take their game to another level. If we have another draft like last season it'll take our team to another level. The future is so bright in Houston that I have to wear shades.
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