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Old 02-05-2012   #21
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Default Re: "If" Mario leaves for greener pastures, then what?

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Originally Posted by ObsiWan View Post
Maybe a change of location would improve him but all the Saints fans I know think about as much of Meachem as we do of Jacoby.

ESPN Scouts, Inc...

That doesn't sound much of a A.J. replacement unit to me.
...but then there are few who could be.

Let me be clear: Meachem can't replace AJ's productivity. However, my point is that we need someone that can stretch the field and make big plays with AJ is unavailable. With our running game and wealth of productive receiving TEs, the offensive could still execute at a very high level if we had a speedster that could actually make plays (JJ simply can't). Meachem's value when AJ is injured would be to allow room for Foster, Tate, OD, KW, Casey, Dreessen, etc... to operate, not to replace Johnson's 8 catches and 130 yards. The fact that Meachem is a very good blocker, makes him an ideal fit for that role, IMO.

In a fantasy world, of course I'd like someone akin to Vincent Jackson here. However, I don't think it is realistic to invest that much of the cap towards two WRs, particularly when you are a run-oriented team.
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Old 02-05-2012   #22
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Default Re: "If" Mario leaves for greener pastures, then what?

If Mario walks, we sign our FA's and are much better prepared to resign our FA's next offseason. In the meantime, draft BPA throughout the draft and resist the urge to reach for a player at a particular position. The Texans will not be players in the FA market, outside of resigning most of our own, this offseason.
It's not sexy or flashy, but I believe that's the proper mindset going forward.
That's also the approach that 2 of the most successful franchises in the league approach every offseason: Pittsburgh and New England.
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Old 02-05-2012   #23
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Default Re: "If" Mario leaves for greener pastures, then what?

If all indications are that Mario is leaving, that leaves more pie for our current key-FA's to want. Just as there is no expectation for Mario to sign a sweetheart deal that benefits the Texans' long term forecast, there should be no expectation that other Texan FA's will do so in kind who are up for FA in a potential Mario vacuum.
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Old 02-05-2012   #24
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Default Re: "If" Mario leaves for greener pastures, then what?

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Originally Posted by mussop View Post
I know I know all you Mario man crushers are insisting we will resign Mario but WHAT IF he gets an offer that we can't justify matching? Then what? I present you with
No one can make Mario an offer until FA starts.... March something or other. We should have presented Mario a fair offer & hopefully signed him by then.

If we don't sign Mario before the FA period starts.... he's gone. Simple as that.

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Originally Posted by mussop View Post
plan A : Carl Nicks, G, Saints. Age: 27.
Carl Nicks is arguably the top guard in all of football. He has no
weaknesses to his game; his blasts open huge holes for his running back,
and he seldom allows a quarterback pressure. He was whistled for only two
penalties all year.

Use the money we were going to give to Mario and lock up the best OG in the NFL. Even the top OG's dont make what Mario is going to command on the open market.
If the Saints let Nicks walk, they'll be as dumb as the Texans for allowing Mario to walk.

I don't think Nicks hits FA.
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Originally Posted by mussop View Post
plan B: Paul Soliai, NT, Dolphins. Age: 28.
At 6-4, 355 pounds, Paul Soliai is a monstrous, run-stuffing nose tackle.
He made $12.3 million with the franchise tag this season.

It could be argued that either of these guys could be more valuable to the Texans than Mario.

plan C: Calais Campbell, DE/DT, Cardinals. Age: 26.
You could argue that aside from Justin Smith, Calais Campbell is the best 3-4 defensive end in all of football. Campbell has no weaknesses; he's a ferocious pass-rusher, he blocks kicks, and he can even drop into coverage pretty well. And he'll be 25 until Sept. 1.

A younger version of Mario?
Beautiful..... I love this. If Mario walks, we have to replace him. Solail leaving Miami, I'm not seeing it. But if he's out there, lets get him. This Campbell fella, gotta take your word, although I don't think we got what we expected from the least DE we got from Arizona. Talks loud, carries a big stick..... but that's about it.

But yes, get more help, to allow Jj, Reed, & Barwin to do what they do.
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plan D: Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers, Chargers. Age: 29.
Vincent Jackson amazingly has never caught more than 68 passes in a single season, but with his size (6-5, 230) and downfield ability, he's one of the top physical talents at the wide receiver position in the NFL.

Imagine what he would do for AJ's career.
Honestly, Andre gets open in our system with what we've got. I personally don't think the bottle neck is because of our receiving options.
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plan E: Kendall Langford, DE/DT, Dolphins. Age: 26.
Kendall Langford is a really good, young five-tech who excels in both stopping the run and putting pressure on the quarterback.

AND

Wesley Woodyard, OLB, Broncos. Age: 26.
Wesley Woodyard could be a starting weakside linebacker somewhere,
but didn't get the opportunity to play at that position this past year
because of D.J. Williams.

AND

Dan Connor, ILB, Panthers. Age: 26.
Don't expect Dan Connor to be back with the Panthers; otherwise,
he'll have to play behind Jon Beason. Connor is talented and young,
and could easily be a starter somewhere else.

Three for the price of one! All good young players that already have shown they can produce with lots of upside that would add solid depth.
I'm fine with that. You seem to understand letting Mario walk will create a need on the defensive side of the ball. You've got those covered. If you were running the FO & you had this type of plan, I would approve if I were Bob, Kubiak, Wade, etc......

Any plan to let Mario Walk & crossing of fingers wouldn't fly.
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Old 02-05-2012   #25
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Default Re: "If" Mario leaves for greener pastures, then what?

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Originally Posted by welsh texan View Post
I'm a little worried about the clamor to sign WR's like Wayne, Garcon & Meachem, Wayne looked great with Manning chucking it at him, Garcon looked good with Manning throwing it at him, Meachem looked decent in patches with Brees throwing it at him.

Now, we've seen this year how Peyton Manning even elevated the play of his defense with how long he makes drives last, so what illusion he's having on his WR's worries me.

Wayne didn't quite make it to 1000 yards this season, now is that what happens when Peyton isn't throwing it to him (which we won't have) or is that his increasing age (even worse for a prospective bidder)

Garcon put up career numbers this season just gone, that gives me hope, maybe he's a good option for the longer term??
Both Manning and Schaub are way better than Dan Orlovsky and they would make any good receiver look great.
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Old 02-05-2012   #26
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Default Re: "If" Mario leaves for greener pastures, then what?

Wayne was just forty yards away from 1,00 yards this season without a great QB this season.
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Old 02-05-2012   #27
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Default Re: "If" Mario leaves for greener pastures, then what?

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
Because, what the team needs at WR, IMO, is a WR3 that can step in and be a WR1 when AJ is injured.
Did you say this out loud before typing it?
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Old 02-05-2012   #28
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Default Re: "If" Mario leaves for greener pastures, then what?

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
Let me be clear: Meachem can't replace AJ's productivity. However, my point is that we need someone that can stretch the field and make big plays with AJ is unavailable. With our running game and wealth of productive receiving TEs, the offensive could still execute at a very high level if we had a speedster that could actually make plays (JJ simply can't).
The first play of the Bengal's game..... Jacoby didn't catch the ball, but it should have scared the crap out of that secondary.

The first play against Tampa Bay..... hello.... 80 yard TD after Jj split two defenders.

The Baltimore game, the big TD on Reed.

I'm watching the Miami game now. Jj had a couple of great punt returns (one for 39 yards) & a couple of great catches. One for 30 some yards.....

The man averages over 16 yards a catch.

I've said several times I'm ok with cutting Jacoby Jones, but Robert Meachum is not an upgrade.
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Old 02-05-2012   #29
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Default Re: "If" Mario leaves for greener pastures, then what?

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Originally Posted by Kaiser Toro View Post
If all indications are that Mario is leaving, that leaves more pie for our current key-FA's to want.
All current indications are that the Texans will sign Mario. The Texans have publicly said they want to sign him. Mario publicly said he wants to be here.
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Originally Posted by Kaiser Toro View Post
Just as there is no expectation for Mario to sign a sweetheart deal that benefits the Texans' long term forecast,
No need to "create" a "sweetheart" deal to sign Mario. All we need is a low cap number for 2012, a fat bonus should do that. I don't know if it's possible, but we could probably offer a $10M signing bonus & a $5M roster bonus for 2012..... his cap number would be $10M/length of contract, lets say 5 years=$2M, his 2012 roster bonus $5M & whatever salary they put on 2012 $1M cap number equals $2M+$5M+$1M=$8M

If his cap # for 2011 was $18M, we save $10M
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaiser Toro View Post
there should be no expectation that other Texan FA's will do so in kind who are up for FA in a potential Mario vacuum.
They are assuming we free up $18 Million by not signing Mario. My way, we get Mario & $10M to sign FAs.
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Old 02-05-2012   #30
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Default Re: "If" Mario leaves for greener pastures, then what?

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
All current indications are that the Texans will sign Mario. The Texans have publicly said they want to sign him. Mario publicly said he wants to be here.

No need to "create" a "sweetheart" deal to sign Mario. All we need is a low cap number for 2012, a fat bonus should do that. I don't know if it's possible, but we could probably offer a $10M signing bonus & a $5M roster bonus for 2012..... his cap number would be $10M/length of contract, lets say 5 years=$2M, his 2012 roster bonus $5M & whatever salary they put on 2012 $1M cap number equals $2M+$5M+$1M=$8M

If his cap # for 2011 was $18M, we save $10M


They are assuming we free up $18 Million by not signing Mario. My way, we get Mario & $10M to sign FAs.
The title of the thread starts with "if."
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Old 02-05-2012   #31
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Default Re: "If" Mario leaves for greener pastures, then what?

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Originally Posted by rush2112mn View Post
I dont think it is a "if" Mario walks....its a "when"....
Mario is going to want more money than the Texans can afford. He is going to want "elite" defensive end money. We have other issues to address as well.....such as a young wide receiver....another cornerback.....and resigning of some of the other players on the team.
Sir elite defensive end money is between $11-$14 million average salary. The Texans can offer that to him. But the catch is we have to backload it and get him to agree to smaller cap number for 2012 before he can see the "elite" numbers down the line. It's not out of the realm of possibility that he could return. So for now we are just speculating "what if"...
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Old 02-05-2012   #32
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Default Re: "If" Mario leaves for greener pastures, then what?

No Mario = signing FAs with that money?

@ this ****.
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Old 02-05-2012   #33
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Default Re: "If" Mario leaves for greener pastures, then what?

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
The first play of the Bengal's game..... Jacoby didn't catch the ball, but it should have scared the crap out of that secondary.

The first play against Tampa Bay..... hello.... 80 yard TD after Jj split two defenders.

The Baltimore game, the big TD on Reed.

I'm watching the Miami game now. Jj had a couple of great punt returns (one for 39 yards) & a couple of great catches. One for 30 some yards.....

The man averages over 16 yards a catch.

I've said several times I'm ok with cutting Jacoby Jones, but Robert Meachum is not an upgrade.

Here's what Football outsiders says about the two players:

In 2011: http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr
Robert Meachem ranked #21
Jacoby Jones ranked #60

In 2010: http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr2010
Robert Meachem ranked #19
Jacoby Jones ranked #63

In 2009: http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr2009
Robert Meachem ranked #12
Jacoby didn't qualify with enough catches but would've been about #27

Football outsiders statistical rankings are the best metric I know to compare players. It's not perfect but it is a great model to look at. Clearly, according to football outsiders, there is no comparison between the two players.

Both Jacoby and Meachem were fulfilling a similar role in the offense during that three year span.
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Old 02-05-2012   #34
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Default Re: "If" Mario leaves for greener pastures, then what?

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Football outsiders statistical rankings are the best metric I know to compare players. It's not perfect but it is a great model to look at. Clearly, according to football outsiders, there is no comparison between the two players.
I agree with the no comparison part, primarily because of the different offenses these two guys played in. Put Jacoby in that vertical offense run by the Saints or put Meachum in our WCO, it's a wash.

The Saints offense is very WR friendly almost anyone would look good in it. Our offense is very QB friendly, we'll never have two 1000 yard receivers.

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Both Jacoby and Meachem were fulfilling a similar role in the offense during that three year span.
The Saints are no different than any other NFL team. A 1st round pick is going to have more opportunity to produce than a 3rd round PR.

If you're telling me they are both 3WRs, I agree. If you're trying to tell me that Meachum will keep a defense more honest than Jj if Aj misses a game, I'm sorry, but we're going to have to agree to disagree.

If you are telling me the vet minimum would be wisely spent on a #3 WR, I'm saying you're flat out wrong.
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Old 02-05-2012   #35
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Default Re: "If" Mario leaves for greener pastures, then what?

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I'm sorry did you say something? I got lost in your avatar. Oh yeh, if thats the case then how do you expect us to sign Mario and all our FA's?
We won't be signing Mario. Only way it happens is if he takes a major pay cut and if I were him I wouldn't.
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Old 02-05-2012   #36
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Default Re: "If" Mario leaves for greener pastures, then what?

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I agree with the no comparison part, primarily because of the different offenses these two guys played in. Put Jacoby in that vertical offense run by the Saints or put Meachum in our WCO, it's a wash.

The Saints offense is very WR friendly almost anyone would look good in it. Our offense is very QB friendly, we'll never have two 1000 yard receivers.



The Saints are no different than any other NFL team. A 1st round pick is going to have more opportunity to produce than a 3rd round PR.

If you're telling me they are both 3WRs, I agree. If you're trying to tell me that Meachum will keep a defense more honest than Jj if Aj misses a game, I'm sorry, but we're going to have to agree to disagree.

If you are telling me the vet minimum would be wisely spent on a #3 WR, I'm saying you're flat out wrong.

You must not have looked at the Football Outsiders statistics. The rankings have nearly nothing to do with the # of catches nor total yards. Instead, it factors in a number of things that aim to rate a player regardless of their surroundings (not entirely possible). Jacoby isn't below Meachem on the rankings because he had less opportunities, it is because he was much less efficient when he had the opportunities.

Jacoby has started a number of games and sees the field at nearly the same rate that Meachem does. So, the idea that Meachem gets opportunities that Jacoby doesn't get opportunities due to draft position is bogus. The Texans have a 3rd year UDFA starring at running back. The fact that Jacoby's role and impact on the offense is as small as it is has nothing to do with being a 3rd round pick and everything to do with his inefficiency.

Meachem will get much more than the veteran minimum, whomever he signs with. I'm guessing something like 5 years and $20 million. I would love the Texans to get Meachem for that. Clearly, if you don't like the idea of signing him for the vet minimum, that number will freak you out.
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Old 02-05-2012   #37
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Default Re: "If" Mario leaves for greener pastures, then what?

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
You must not have looked at the Football Outsiders statistics. The rankings have nearly nothing to do with the # of catches nor total yards. Instead, it factors in a number of things that aim to rate a player regardless of their surroundings (not entirely possible). Jacoby isn't below Meachem on the rankings because he had less opportunities, it is because he was much less efficient when he had the opportunities.

Jacoby has started a number of games and sees the field at nearly the same rate that Meachem does. So, the idea that Meachem gets opportunities that Jacoby doesn't get opportunities due to draft position is bogus. The Texans have a 3rd year UDFA starring at running back. The fact that Jacoby's role and impact on the offense is as small as it is has nothing to do with being a 3rd round pick and everything to do with his inefficiency.

Meachem will get much more than the veteran minimum, whomever he signs with. I'm guessing something like 5 years and $20 million. I would love the Texans to get Meachem for that. Clearly, if you don't like the idea of signing him for the vet minimum, that number will freak you out.
A rookie in the 1st round is cheaper than that. Heck a rookie in the 1st round AND Lestar Jean is cheaper than that. I'd take my chances there instead of investing so much into a receiver that everyone agrees would be no better than Jacoby stepping into the role of #1 without AJ.
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Old 02-05-2012   #38
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Default Re: "If" Mario leaves for greener pastures, then what?

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Originally Posted by cbs1507 View Post
A rookie in the 1st round is cheaper than that. Heck a rookie in the 1st round AND Lestar Jean is cheaper than that. I'd take my chances there instead of investing so much into a receiver that everyone agrees would be no better than Jacoby stepping into the role of #1 without AJ.
First of all, plenty of people disagree that Meachem wouldn't be better than Jacoby. Above, I've sited Football Outsiders among those that dramatically disagree.

Second, I'd love for the Texans to draft a Wide Receiver in round one. However, I would hate for them to count on the rookie to be a difference-maker as a rookie (particularly a late first rounder). Seldom does a rookie WR make a significant, positive impact. The Texans only have three receivers likely to make the 53 man roster under contract (and one of those is JJ, whom could be cut). So, signing a free agent WR and drafting one is almost a certainty.
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Old 02-05-2012   #39
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Default Re: "If" Mario leaves for greener pastures, then what?

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
First of all, plenty of people disagree that Meachem wouldn't be better than Jacoby. Above, I've sited Football Outsiders among those that dramatically disagree.

Second, I'd love for the Texans to draft a Wide Receiver in round one. However, I would hate for them to count on the rookie to be a difference-maker as a rookie (particularly a late first rounder). Seldom does a rookie WR make a significant, positive impact. The Texans only have three receivers likely to make the 53 man roster under contract (and one of those is JJ, whom could be cut). So, signing a free agent WR and drafting one is almost a certainty.
First of all I said nothing about who is better than who. I said everyone agrees that neither would be sufficient in filling in at #1 for AJ.

Second, there is no point in investing that much money in a #3 WR who obviously would be no better than Jacoby at filling in for AJ. So therefore, we are better off financially in taking a chance on a rookie in the draft and seeing what Lestar Jean can do because both are cheaper than your proposed deal to a #3 WR that is mainly just a deep threat (sound familiar? *cough cough* Jacoby Jones).

BTW if we were to sign a FA WR. I'd rather sign Laurent Robinson. He is just as fast as Meachem but a better route runner. He is also QB friendly when the play breaks down. He had a stellar season filling in for Miles Austin. Plus, I don't think he'll cost as much as your proposed Meachem deal.

Last edited by cbs1507; 02-05-2012 at 04:46 PM.
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Old 02-05-2012   #40
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Default Re: "If" Mario leaves for greener pastures, then what?

I expect mario tobe back & with a savings of $7m to 10m depending on his actual cap hit that no one knows. That would allow an ANdre Johnson type contract for Bowe with a nice bonus upfront to entice him. Then you have your #2 WR & a future replacement for the HOF. I'd then hope that Peter Konz falls to #26 and select Zeitler in round 2.
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