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Old 01-24-2012   #1
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Default AJ:Can the Texans afford Mario Williams and Arian Foster?

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The multi-million dollar question for the Texans heading into free agency is what to do with Mario Williams who will become an unrestricted free agent in early March if the Texans don't lock him up before then.

Williams would be a hot commodity on the free agent market, presumably to a 4-3 team looking for a big-time defensive end.

The Texans have three options with Williams: a) sign him to a long term deal, b) franchise him, or c) let him go unrestricted.

There could also be a sub-option to (b) that would be to apply a franchise tag on Williams to buy time with the intent to trade Williams to a team that will sign him to a long term deal.

The Texans have leverage with Foster because he's restricted and I think the Texans will give him the long term deal he deserves.

Let's explore the options on Williams just a bit.

Before we simply say 'sign him to a long term deal' you must look at the Texans salary cap situation for 2012. Details are still emerging but the cap will be somewhere around $125 million next season.
http://www.examiner.com/houston-texa...d-arian-foster
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Old 01-24-2012   #2
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Default Re: AJ:Can the Texans afford Mario Williams and Arian Foster?

Sign 'em and trade him. Whatever we sign him to, could bring multiple future picks. I'd be willing to explore that possibility as opposed to just letting him walk.



*Disclaimer*

I like Mario and would love for him to have played his entire career here in Houston, but at the end of the day, you have to look at the overall value. It's just not there unless you sign him and get something in return... Something substantial!!
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Old 01-24-2012   #3
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Default Re: AJ:Can the Texans afford Mario Williams and Arian Foster?

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Originally Posted by Texan_Bill View Post
Sign 'em and trade him. Whatever we sign him to, could bring multiple future picks. I'd be willing to explore that possibility as opposed to just letting him walk.



*Disclaimer*

I like Mario and would love for him to have played his entire career here in Houston, but at the end of the day, you have to look at the overall value. It's just not there unless you sign him and get something in return... Something substantial!!
^^^What he said
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Old 01-24-2012   #4
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Default Re: AJ:Can the Texans afford Mario Williams and Arian Foster?

Probably a dumb question, but what does AJ stand for?
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Old 01-24-2012   #5
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Default Re: AJ:Can the Texans afford Mario Williams and Arian Foster?

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Probably a dumb question, but what does AJ stand for?
AJ Burge! A Texans blogger!

Wait, an awesome Texans blogger!!!
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Old 01-24-2012   #6
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Default Re: AJ:Can the Texans afford Mario Williams and Arian Foster?

The writing heads are beginning to see the light. We have been talking about this for 10 months now on this board. I hope I am wrong but I don't see a tag and trade working. The article is correct you can't have a few players take up that much of your cap. This is a TEAM sport.
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Old 01-24-2012   #7
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Default Re: AJ:Can the Texans afford Mario Williams and Arian Foster?

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Originally Posted by Texan_Bill View Post
Sign 'em and trade him. Whatever we sign him to, could bring multiple future picks. I'd be willing to explore that possibility as opposed to just letting him walk.
Its gonna be really difficult to use the franchise tag to trade MW .... Probably the ideal scenario if you are the Texans but considering all the logistics of it , difficult to execute.

Rick Smith is really gonna earn his pay this offseason and next - Next seasons FA group is much more larger than this years tho maybe not quite so high profile.


The two most likely scenario's are he walks or the Texans sign MW to a contract thats backloaded to the 2013 & 14 seasons as the salary cap should rise significantly in those years , in the neighborhood of $180m , possibly more.

Either way , he wont count near as much against the cap next season as he did this past one - His cap number was about $17m. If they can get him in the $10-12m range they still have money left to re-up Foster , Briesel , Dreessen and Myers. They just wont have anything left to make outside FA moves. Other positions will have to be upgraded thru the draft.


There are a few cost cutting moves I expect to see - Leinart & J.Jones cut as cap casualties and Demeco re-structuring his deal as he will count ~$8.5m on the cap. Thats just too much.
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Old 01-24-2012   #8
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Default Re: AJ:Can the Texans afford Mario Williams and Arian Foster?

I personally think this is a sad, sad attempt at stopping the Mario (or the Pay Arian) threads from growing.

I'm still going to post in the other threads...... heck, I'll probably just copy, paste, & link my posts from the other threads.
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Old 01-24-2012   #9
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Default Re: AJ:Can the Texans afford Mario Williams and Arian Foster?

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Old 01-24-2012   #10
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Default Re: AJ:Can the Texans afford Mario Williams and Arian Foster?

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Rip it off... fast... like one would a band aid. Bye Mario.
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Old 01-24-2012   #11
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Default Re: AJ:Can the Texans afford Mario Williams and Arian Foster?

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Originally Posted by Corrosion View Post
Rick Smith is really gonna earn his pay this offseason and next - Next seasons FA group is much more larger than this years tho maybe not quite so high profile.

In addition to posing a potential problem, this also presents an opportunity. If the Texans can renew any of next years expiring contracts this off season, it could not only secure the players in question, but also create cap room for 2012 by structuring those renewals to move money to 2013, or even later when the cap is expected to grow significantly.
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Old 01-24-2012   #12
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Default Re: AJ:Can the Texans afford Mario Williams and Arian Foster?

Gotta find a way to keep Mario, man.

Best way to do that? Backload the holy **** out of his deal and hope he's down with it. Reed is a bad ass OLB, but he ain't Mario, fam.
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Old 01-24-2012   #13
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Default Re: AJ:Can the Texans afford Mario Williams and Arian Foster?

Sign him to a big deal, back loaded later. Regardless of how he performs in 2012, trade him for profit!
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Old 01-25-2012   #14
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Default Re: AJ:Can the Texans afford Mario Williams and Arian Foster?

As I peel back the onion while researching the "new" salary cap variables (CBA and other sites), it appears that the following variables need to be considered and addressed, with these discussions, in order to delineate cap availability for the near and long term:

- Salary Cap Carryover
Quote:
(v) Carrying Over Room. A Club may “carry over” Room from one
League Year to the following League Year by submitting notice in writing signed by the owner to the NFL no later than fourteen (14) days prior to the start of the next League Year indicating the maximum amount of Room that the Club wishes to carry over. The NFL shall promptly provide a copy of any such notice to the NFLPA. The amount of Room carried over will be adjusted downward based on the final Room available after the year-end reconciliation
- Amounts Borrowed from Future Caps
Quote:
(e) Additional Salary Cap Room.
(ii) For the 2012 League Year, each Club may designate up to three players
who, as of July 25, 2011, have five or more Accrued Seasons and are under contract to the Club on the first day of the 2012 League Year with a Salary of at least $500,000 over the Minimum Active/Inactive List Salary for such player, for each of whom the Club will receive a credit to Team Salary for the 2012 League Year of $500,000 provided that the player is on the Active/Inactive Roster, Reserve/Injured List, or Physically Unable to Perform List of the Club throughout the 2012 League Year regular season. The amount of the credit shall be reduced proportionally for each week of the regular season such player is not on the Club’s Roster as described in the immediately preceding sentence in the same manner described in Subsection (i) above. The amount of any such credit to Team Salary in the 2012 League Year shall be offset by an equivalent charge to Team Salary, spread over the 2014–17 League Years in a manner to be determined by the Club. Each Club’s designations of such players, if any, shall be made by written notice to the NFL no later than the first regular season game of that League Year. Additional Room shall become effective upon receipt by the NFL of such notice. The NFL shall promptly forward such notices to the NFLPA
- Base Salary Escalators, such as Likely to be Earned Incentives (team and individual escalators) pages 102-104 of the CBA

- Incremental Cap due to TV rights

http://nfllabor.files.wordpress.com/...-2011-2020.pdf

There is much uncertainty due to our actual cap number, just like other teams as they wrap up the current fiscal year. Moreover, dealing with our own free agents, and the hard decisions that are to pass, are not local to the Texans, other teams have difficult decisions as well. The aggregate of those decisions is the market, which is undetermined at this point.

Of course, we all have our favorites and the narratives that we conjure up can be biased in favor of the outcomes that we would like to see. This is natural as die hard fans. In the interim, as we and the collective front offices corral clarity in the coming weeks and months there will be plenty of hyperbole and innuendo which will fuel the debate.
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Old 01-25-2012   #15
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Default Re: AJ:Can the Texans afford Mario Williams and Arian Foster?

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Originally Posted by Kaiser Toro View Post
As I peel back the onion while researching the "new" salary cap variables (CBA and other sites), it appears that the following variables need to be considered and addressed, with these discussions, in order to delineate cap availability for the near and long term:

- Salary Cap Carryover


- Amounts Borrowed from Future Caps


- Base Salary Escalators, such as Likely to be Earned Incentives (team and individual escalators) pages 102-104 of the CBA

- Incremental Cap due to TV rights

http://nfllabor.files.wordpress.com/...-2011-2020.pdf

There is much uncertainty due to our actual cap number, just like other teams as they wrap up the current fiscal year. Moreover, dealing with our own free agents, and the hard decisions that are to pass, are not local to the Texans, other teams have difficult decisions as well. The aggregate of those decisions is the market, which is undetermined at this point.

Of course, we all have our favorites and the narratives that we conjure up can be biased in favor of the outcomes that we would like to see. This is natural as die hard fans. In the interim, as we and the collective front offices corral clarity in the coming weeks and months there will be plenty of hyperbole and innuendo which will fuel the debate.
Reading that game me a headache .... Rick has his work cut out for him.
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Old 01-25-2012   #16
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Default Re: AJ:Can the Texans afford Mario Williams and Arian Foster?

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Originally Posted by ChampionTexan View Post
In addition to posing a potential problem, this also presents an opportunity. If the Texans can renew any of next years expiring contracts this off season, it could not only secure the players in question, but also create cap room for 2012 by structuring those renewals to move money to 2013, or even later when the cap is expected to grow significantly.
Sure it presents an opportunity .... But with this teams history of not renewing deals before they expire .... I find it hard to believe they would go in that direction.
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Old 01-25-2012   #17
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Default Re: AJ:Can the Texans afford Mario Williams and Arian Foster?

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Originally Posted by ThaShark316 View Post
Gotta find a way to keep Mario, man.

Best way to do that? Backload the holy **** out of his deal and hope he's down with it. Reed is a bad ass OLB, but he ain't Mario, fam.
As I see it, Foster is a much greater need than Mario, if we can keep both I'm all for it (and i really want to see what Mario can do with this system for a full year), but if only one can stay, it's definitely Arian.
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Old 01-25-2012   #18
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Default Re: AJ:Can the Texans afford Mario Williams and Arian Foster?

In AJ's article
Quote:
According to spotrac.com, the Texans have six players that will account for $44.8 million of that cap space and that doesn't include Arian Foster who will likely get a nice long term deal of his own in the next few months.

Let's say for discussion purposes that Foster's cap hit in 2012 is $6 million. That means the Texans would have around $51 million in cap (more than 40%) wrapped up in seven players (and that wouldn't include Williams).

Add a fat Williams contract to the bunch and you could easily have the Texans using roughly half of their cap space on eight players - and the other half would be spread across the other 45 players plus contingency space for injured reserve.
Given that Sportrac has done a great job of SEO and attempting to be the go to source for cap discussions, it only makes sense to use it as the baseline for these discussions without knowing actual cap implications. With that said, let's take a look at other top AFC teams and how their top six players will affect their cap in 2012, according to Sportrac.

Ravens - Ngata, Suggs, Reed, Foxworth, Flacco, Gurode = ~$64m and have Ray Rice as a UFA

Steelers - Roethlisberger, Harrison, Timmons, Taylor, Hampton, Woodley = ~$54m

Patriots - Brady, Wilfork, Light, Mankins, Ochocinco, Mayo = ~$46m

Broncos - Bailey, Dumervil, Dawkins, Warren, Williams, Tebow = ~$53m

This is simply an exercise to chip away at the 2012 "doomsday" scenario of six players being X percentage of cap. As one can easily see it is not local to the Texans, but representative of the power structure in the AFC. However, this exercise still does not account for 2013 and beyond cap implications, which is the crux of the conversation.
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Old 01-25-2012   #19
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Default Re: AJ:Can the Texans afford Mario Williams and Arian Foster?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaiser Toro View Post
In AJ's article


Given that Sportrac has done a great job of SEO and attempting to be the go to source for cap discussions, it only makes sense to use it as the baseline for these discussions without knowing actual cap implications. With that said, let's take a look at other top AFC teams and how their top six players will affect their cap in 2012, according to Sportrac.

Ravens - Ngata, Suggs, Reed, Foxworth, Flacco, Gurode = ~$64m and have Ray Rice as a UFA

Steelers - Roethlisberger, Harrison, Timmons, Taylor, Hampton, Woodley = ~$54m

Patriots - Brady, Wilfork, Light, Mankins, Ochocinco, Mayo = ~$46m

Broncos - Bailey, Dumervil, Dawkins, Warren, Williams, Tebow = ~$53m

This is simply an exercise to chip away at the 2012 "doomsday" scenario of six players being X percentage of cap. As one can easily see it is not local to the Texans, but representative of the power structure in the AFC. However, this exercise still does not account for 2013 and beyond cap implications, which is the crux of the conversation.
Good post - MSR.
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Old 01-25-2012   #20
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Default Re: AJ:Can the Texans afford Mario Williams and Arian Foster?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaiser Toro View Post
In AJ's article


Given that Sportrac has done a great job of SEO and attempting to be the go to source for cap discussions, it only makes sense to use it as the baseline for these discussions without knowing actual cap implications. With that said, let's take a look at other top AFC teams and how their top six players will affect their cap in 2012, according to Sportrac.

Ravens - Ngata, Suggs, Reed, Foxworth, Flacco, Gurode = ~$64m and have Ray Rice as a UFA

Steelers - Roethlisberger, Harrison, Timmons, Taylor, Hampton, Woodley = ~$54m

Patriots - Brady, Wilfork, Light, Mankins, Ochocinco, Mayo = ~$46m

Broncos - Bailey, Dumervil, Dawkins, Warren, Williams, Tebow = ~$53m

This is simply an exercise to chip away at the 2012 "doomsday" scenario of six players being X percentage of cap. As one can easily see it is not local to the Texans, but representative of the power structure in the AFC. However, this exercise still does not account for 2013 and beyond cap implications, which is the crux of the conversation.
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