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Old 02-21-2012   #161
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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Originally Posted by Rey View Post
So your logic is: Because washington did it, it must be a good move
Most people at the time felt it was a fair trade and quite a few felt that Washington may have even come out ahead.
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Old 02-21-2012   #162
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

The reason you sign Arian right now is because Arian has displayed professionalism throughout all of this in return for a team that gave him a shot. Bob Mcnair said that Arian will be compensated if Arian displays his production on a consistent basis. Arian did that and more.

If Arian holds out, it will not be because he is a primaddona (Chris Johnson) as Arian has done everything to show that he is not greater than the team and loves being apart of this team. If Arian holds out it will be because he has proved on and off the field that he belongs in this league as one of the higher paid players in the league.
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Old 02-21-2012   #163
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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Most people at the time felt it was a fair trade and quite a few felt that Washington may have even come out ahead.
Arian is a huge chunk of our offense and he accounts for a lot of the TD's...Especially in the Red Zone.

If you recall, our offense has been notoriously good in between the 20's, but struggled in the RZ. We don't pass for a lot of RZ TD's.

Not until we got Arian did we start capatalizing on more of the short yardage opprotunities.

I'm not saying that another player couldn't convert short yardage or be a red zone monster, but Arian is a short yardage and RZ monster IN ADDITION TO being a beast everywhere else.

I don't see what Washington and Denver did has anything to do with this current discussion though.

Are you trying to say that Portis was that much better than Arian and that is the reason Washington was willing to give up an elite corner for him?

Maybe they were just dumb?
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Old 02-21-2012   #164
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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Well, maybe you should actually think of WHY the stats look the way they do???

Off the top of my head, I'd say that Andre Johnson was the game-changing CONSISTENT player that created nightmares for opposing d-coordinators and defenders....meaning that AJ and Schaub were eating up yards and racking up points.

Foster is in that AJ role now. Period. He creates nightmares for a team trying to game plan against us, and he consumes yards and is the go-to-guy when we need a crucial 3rd down play to extend a drive. The animated GIF image that santo posted is THE definitive example of what I am saying. Arian Foster does things that amaze us and we used to say that about AJ. Old guard, new guard, and all that jazz...

If this is not true, then I should stop watching football and trying to commentate on it in a public forum such as this one. It's patently obvious that AJ is fading and Foster has filled that role now. Ben Tate is the perfect compliment to Foster's style, as well, and it only makes Foster that much more lethal to have a Ben Tate alongside him.
AJ is still the go to guy in the offense. Even with 2 blown out hammies the guy was still the focus of defenses and still piled on the yards. He's going to be good whether Foster, Tate or even a bum neck Slaton is in the backfield.

I don't get the love that people pile on this guy. He is great in a system that makes nobodies into 1k yard rushers, running behind an O-line with 3 guys who got All Pro votes. In 2010 and 2011 he rushed for a full yard or more per carry less than his backup.

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Go look at the Red Zone scoring with and without Foster.

He is MR. Redzone.

But more than that, just watch the damn games.
Yes, he's a very good goal line back, but you can get that for a lot less than $7+ mil a year and his abilities between the 10's are not irreplaceable.

I've seen every Texans game and he is not some once in a generation player. Great(in this system), but he's no LT and I would take 2003 Portis over him in a heartbeat.
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Old 02-21-2012   #165
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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I agree with the spirit of what you are saying, but at the same time it has to be reasonable. The Texans CANNOT give Foster CJ or AD kind of money. Heavily investing big bucks in a running back almost NEVER works out for the team. I am all for giving Foster a very solid top 5 contract, but not if it hangs a massive albatross around the team's neck.

I agree wholeheartedly with this comment of yours "We have a lot of uncertainty on offense, IMO, that is masked by a very good defense." The Defense is a young, hungry, energetic group. Perhaps we are all going about this wrong. Maybe what we need to do is really focus on the defense and build it up into a monstrous smothering Defense on the order of the 49ers of last year and the Ravens/Steeler teams of the past. Constant pressure, swarming run D, excellent coverage, and precise tackling would be our bread and butter. In that scenario, we would sign Mario, restructure contracts, and probably tag Foster. We could then work out a deal with him later on.
If Foster gets a $7 million franchise this year, does that $7 million count against our 2012 cap? I don't know how franchise tag salary affects the cap space number for that season. And it only puts off for tomorrow what you can wisely get done today. That's my two "big problems" with using a tag on him.

However, doppelganger, I think the prospect of possibly signing Mario and tagging Foster could be the way to have our cake and eat it too...if it could work out. It puts a burden on us in 2013 to find a way to get Foster signed long-term, though, which is a bit scary to me if Foster has another great season THIS year and makes his stock rise even more! The upside is that he might regress in 2012 and lose stock value...which would still be "bad" for us since that will likely mean bad things in the W-L column.

I wasn't nervous about our free agent re-signings until THIS thread came along. In my mind, it was only Mario who had the big question mark beside his name on the list. A team out there who has the cap space AND the balls to make a "poison pill contract" offer that would bust the Texans is scary.

Has the league done anything to make teams less likely to create poison pill contract RFA offers? I know there was wide angst in the league about it, a few season ago, and am wondering if the league has found a way to curb that sort of dirty dealing.
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Old 02-21-2012   #166
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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Has the league done anything to make teams less likely to create poison pill contract RFA offers? I know there was wide angst in the league about it, a few season ago, and am wondering if the league has found a way to curb that sort of dirty dealing.
Yes. The new CBA prohibits contracts that increase the value if a player plays in a particular place or for a particular team.
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Old 02-21-2012   #167
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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Yes, he's a very good goal line back, but you can get that for a lot less than $7+ mil a year and his abilities between the 10's are not irreplaceable.

I've seen every Texans game and he is not some once in a generation player. Great(in this system), but he's no LT and I would take 2003 Portis over him in a heartbeat.
Well I'm not here to change your opinion, just stating mine.

I think you are wrong as can be but that's what's great about America...You can be wrong if you choose to.

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Old 02-21-2012   #168
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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AJ is still the go to guy in the offense. Even with 2 blown out hammies the guy was still the focus of defenses and still piled on the yards. He's going to be good whether Foster, Tate or even a bum neck Slaton is in the backfield. That's crazy talk. I would agree with that statement in 2010, but not now. Foster is what AJ used to be, different positions but the impact and game planning focus has shifted from our WR to our RB.

I don't get the love that people pile on this guy. He is great in a system that makes nobodies into 1k yard rushers, running behind an O-line with 3 guys who got All Pro votes. In 2010 and 2011 he rushed for a full yard or more per carry less than his backup. There you go with stats again. If a backup is in on 3rd down plays (or other downs) and busts off a 10 or 20-yard carry, it offsets his other four or five 3rd down plays where he only got maybe 2 or 3 or 4 yards-per-carry. Foster is in the game for 66%, roughly, of the plays and therefore is going to have a lesser average because of the number of plays he has. He has twice as many plays than the backup has, which affects the math. Plus, Tate was the starter and got all the snaps in our first 3 or 4 games in 2011 and Foster had zero yards on zero carries in those first 3 or 4 games. I know because I had Tate in my fantasy league and I scored NICE points in our first 3 or 4 games in 2011. That skews the stats that you're serving up.



Yes, he's a very good goal line back, but you can get that for a lot less than $7+ mil a year and his abilities between the 10's are not irreplaceable.

I've seen every Texans game and he is not some once in a generation player. Great(in this system), but he's no LT and I would take 2003 Portis over him in a heartbeat. Well, you go find us the LT or 2003 Portis to replace Foster with if you think Foster is not adequate enough or as special as those guys. I, too, have seen every Texans game and Steve Slaton could not replicate his rookie season. I bet the Texans offensive line, especially now that the QB position is a bit wobbly for 2012, would LOVE to know that Foster is coming back and not a risky UDFA or draft pick meant to try and replace him. I would imagine the entire team and its coaches would rather trot out Foster for the next several years than risking an alternative. IMO.
My replies in red, above. I respect your points but I disagree with them.
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Old 02-21-2012   #169
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

People are really saying its ok to let AF go, but will defend Mario to death? Are you guys kidding me?!?!?!
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Old 02-21-2012   #170
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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My replies in red, above. I respect your points but I disagree with them.
First time in my life, but I agree with you 100000%
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Old 02-21-2012   #171
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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That's crazy talk. I would agree with that statement in 2010, but not now. Foster is what AJ used to be, different positions but the impact and game planning focus has shifted from our WR to our RB.
AJ isn't some 35 year old on his last leg. He had one bad injury that should be fully healed. There's no reason to think he's going to suffer some dramatic drop off considering his performance in 2011.

Quote:
There you go with stats again.
Damn those pesky facts.

Quote:
If a backup is in on 3rd down plays (or other downs) and busts off a 10 or 20-yard carry, it offsets his other four or five 3rd down plays where he only got maybe 2 or 3 or 4 yards-per-carry. Foster is in the game for 66%, roughly, of the plays and therefore is going to have a lesser average because of the number of plays he has. He has twice as many plays than the backup has, which affects the math.
This doesn't bear out anywhere else in the league on any kind of consistent basis, and on the few cases it does the backup is probably better than the starter but the coach has loyalty issues. Foster got his fair share of 3rd and long draw plays to pad his stats. It isn't as if his backup is only getting freebee yards.

Quote:
Plus, Tate was the starter and got all the snaps in our first 3 or 4 games in 2011 and Foster had zero yards on zero carries in those first 3 or 4 games. I know because I had Tate in my fantasy league and I scored NICE points in our first 3 or 4 games in 2011. That skews the stats that you're serving up.
Actually Tate starting refutes your point above that his YPA is higher because he's only getting limited carries as a backup.

YPA stands for yards per attempt. Not yards per game or total yards.





Quote:
Well, you go find us the LT or 2003 Portis to replace Foster with if you think Foster is not adequate enough or as special as those guys. I, too, have seen every Texans game and Steve Slaton could not replicate his rookie season. I bet the Texans offensive line, especially now that the QB position is a bit wobbly for 2012, would LOVE to know that Foster is coming back and not a risky UDFA or draft pick meant to try and replace him. I would imagine the entire team and its coaches would rather trot out Foster for the next several years than risking an alternative. IMO.
He wouldn't be replaced by an UDFA. We have Tate and maybe Ward, and that's assuming that someone actually signs him and gives up a 1st. In all likelihood nobody would step up and we would still have Foster on the cheap.
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Old 02-21-2012   #172
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If anyone was willing to give me a 1 for Foster I would take it and run.

This is the same Denver running scheme with the same Denver coaches who made Clinton Portis look like a hall of fame caliber running back.

Foster is good, but it's the system that makes him great.

I wish we could pull off a Portis for Bailey type trade with some clueless GM that doesn't understand that.
Oh how we quickly forget about Steve Slaton, Chris Brown, and Ryan Moats. Three guys in the same system with basically the same OL. If its the system, how did Foster take over and why did we have to draft Tate?

A good system, and a good RB go hand & hand. You need a good system to give your player opportunities. You need a good RB to take advantage of those opportunities.
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Old 02-21-2012   #173
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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AJ isn't some 35 year old on his last leg. He had one bad injury that should be fully healed. There's no reason to think he's going to suffer some dramatic drop off considering his performance in 2011.



Damn those pesky facts.



This doesn't bear out anywhere else in the league on any kind of consistent basis, and on the few cases it does the backup is probably better than the starter but the coach has loyalty issues. Foster got his fair share of 3rd and long draw plays to pad his stats. It isn't as if his backup is only getting freebee yards.



Actually Tate starting refutes your point above that his YPA is higher because he's only getting limited carries as a backup.

YPA stands for yards per attempt. Not yards per game or total yards.







He wouldn't be replaced by an UDFA. We have Tate and maybe Ward, and that's assuming that someone actually signs him and gives up a 1st. In all likelihood nobody would step up and we would still have Foster on the cheap.
Yea, how many TDs did Tate have while starting in place of Foster? Here let me tell you, 1, yup thats right, he scored 1 total TD in place of Arian, are you willing to keep that pace up?


That was playing 3 awful defense to open the season in Indy, Miami and New Orleans. He is NOT Arian and never will be. He is a great change of pace back, but thats it.
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Old 02-21-2012   #174
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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Oh how we quickly forget about Steve Slaton, Chris Brown, and Ryan Moats. Three guys in the same system with basically the same OL. If its the system, how did Foster take over and why did we have to draft Tate?
Foster got his chance because Slaton's career basically ended with a preseason neck injury that caused severe nerve damage. He couldn't even feel the ball in his hand resulting in a serious fumbling problem and he never fully recovered.

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A good system, and a good RB go hand & hand. You need a good system to give your player opportunities. You need a good RB to take advantage of those opportunities.
Good RBs are not that hard to find. Slaton was good until he blew up his neck, Tate is good, Foster is good, Ward is good, etc.

If I can keep foster for the top RFA tender fantastic but if somebody wants to give him a huge contract and give me a #1 that's cool too.
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Old 02-21-2012   #175
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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Foster got his chance because Slaton's career basically ended with a preseason neck injury that caused severe nerve damage. He couldn't even feel the ball in his hand resulting in a serious fumbling problem and he never fully recovered.



Good RBs are not that hard to find. Slaton was good until he blew up his neck, Tate is good, Foster is good, Ward is good, etc.

If I can keep foster for the top RFA tender fantastic but if somebody wants to give him a huge contract and give me a #1 that's cool too.
Lucky for us you don't call the shots.

Arian
Myers
Money for role players





Mario Williams


Thats the order our off-season signings should go.
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Old 02-21-2012   #176
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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Lucky for us you don't call the shots.

Arian
Myers
Money for role players





Mario Williams


Thats the order our off-season signings should go.
Rick Smith and company are calling the shots and Mario is their stated #1 priority. Considering he's almost universally regarded as the best FA or RFA on the market, that's probably a good idea.
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Old 02-21-2012   #177
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

Goatcheese,

I would not stake 2012 on the shoulders of Ben Tate and Derrick Ward.

I might be over-valuing Foster, but I think you might be under-valuing him as well.

The only way to find out is to let him walk and see how we do without him, which I don't want see what we look like without him. I've seen what we look like on defense without Mario, but don't want to see a season with no Foster.

The point is that we have Foster, why would we risk losing him right now? So what if the money is tied up in a position that trends toward getting hurt and less effective because of it? I happen to think any of the 52 guys can have that happen to them, just ask our 2011 punter about that probability. But to willingly let the guy walk because we think we can do without him (via Tate and Ward)? No thanks.

Foster also is very wise about when to run out of bounds, rather than foolishly trying to get 21 yards instead of settling for 20. He's prolonging his career, IMO, and his hamstring problems were likely a result of lack of proper conditioning in off-season and not comparative to AJ's.

By the way, AJ's hamstring is OFF THE BONE in at least one region of the muscle. His hamstring, what's remaining of it, is now carrying more load than it should. Which is forcing other nearby muscles/ligaments/etc. to also carry more burden than it should. It's not the same as many other injuries. He's a ticking time bomb, in terms of a potential injury to the knee and other leg muscles and tendons, etc.
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Old 02-21-2012   #178
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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Originally Posted by Goatcheese View Post
Rick Smith and company are calling the shots and Mario is their stated #1 priority. Considering he's almost universally regarded as the best FA or RFA on the market, that's probably a good idea.
Talk is cheap, lets see how gets signed first
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Old 02-21-2012   #179
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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If anybody can guarantee that the first rounder can do this, then for all means go for it:
Our 2010 1st rounder could do it.

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Old 02-21-2012   #180
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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But to willingly let the guy walk because we think we can do without him (via Tate and Ward)? No thanks.
Tate, Ward, another lower cost FA and a 1st round draft pick?

I could live with losing Foster, but I still don't think anyone would give up a #1 and shell out money we couldn't match.

Why shell out $7+ mil when you have a 90% chance of keeping him for peanuts?
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