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Old 02-21-2012   #201
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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Originally Posted by GP View Post
If this is an either/or situation between keeping/pleasing Mario or Arian, in other words choosing which guy to build your team around for the next four years, then it's Arian Foster and it's not even a close contest.

Forget all the flowery words from Wade Phillips about Mario and what he "can be" in the 34 defense here. Forget the memories of how Mario beat out RB and VY in the draft and it worked out for us and we have to be loyal to Mario, etc.

What this is about, frankly, is which guy (if both guys need big fat paydays to stay here long-term) needs to stay here the most.

I do not foresee a situation where Texans can pay BOTH guys the big fat contract they understandably are going to desire (correction: that their AGENTS will desire!) and we get to keep other role players like Chris Myers, Neil Rackers, Joel Dreessen, etc.

I don't think it's economically possible to make it happen all in one season. Maybe I am wrong and the money structures by the Texans FO can make it happen, but it seems (to the lay person) like we're between a rock and a hard place. Maybe we're not, but it feels that way right now.
I believe the one thing you and many others overlook is that the cap will go up "significantly" in the 2013 & 2014 seasons. Possibly as high as $180m in 2013 & $200m in 2014 .... and that teams must spend at 90% of the cap. Which isnt the case this season - teams can sit on cap space and profit take. Many of the smaller market teams are expected to do just that.

The Texans will be able to push money to those seasons easily , thus allowing them to take care of all their FA's and draft picks ..... and posibly have money remaining to sign "other FA's".

There is no either or between MW and Foster .... Its a matter of structuring contracts which they can do without much trouble at all.

The only kicker is that MW's (or his agent) demand's are just too high , at some point you just have to say ..... thats too much. Where that point is , Im not sure but I could see them giving him a max of $15m per over 6.

My bet is that MW & Foster are both Texans next season and beyond , as are Myers , Dreesen and Briesel - Rackers .... I think is replaced.
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Old 02-21-2012   #202
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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The use of the tag doesnt give the guy what he wants , along term deal. Which the team said they would give him if he "Did it again" .... He delivered.

If they tag him , he may walk after the season if the team goes back on their word to give him the long term deal .... I think I would.
You can bet on the Texans getting Foster signed to a long term deal without the use of the tag. The tender just gives them insurance against another team trying to sign him. Im sure Foster understands that. Its not a personel decision but a business decision to protect the GM's ass against another team sneaking in.

I can almost guarantee the Texans tender Foster with the highest grade and the intention of working out a long term contract.
I'd like them to get a long term deal done with Arian, but they only have 3 weeks to do so. The franchise tag can be applied on March 5th if they don't have one by then. That's the only case in which I see them using it, but it buys them time to negotiate more and keeps him focused on the Texans, not 31 other potential suitors. The RFA tag doesn't do that and it could inflate his price, which is why I don't think they should go that route.
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Old 02-21-2012   #203
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
I'd like them to get a long term deal done with Arian, but they only have 3 weeks to do so. The franchise tag can be applied on March 5th if they don't have one by then. That's the only case in which I see them using it, but it buys them time to negotiate more and keeps him focused on the Texans, not 31 other potential suitors. The RFA tag doesn't do that and it could inflate his price, which is why I don't think they should go that route.
How long term? Running backs have the shortest of all NFL players average career expectancy.
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Old 02-21-2012   #204
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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How long term? Running backs have the shortest of all NFL players average career expectancy.
4 or more years starting in 2012, but 4 would be preferable. He's 25 right now, will be 26 at the start of this season. So signing him until he's 29 seems OK with me. The last year or two probably won't be guaranteed anyways, so it's not like they couldn't cut him if they wanted to.
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Old 02-21-2012   #205
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
4 or more years starting in 2012, but 4 would be preferable. He's 25 right now, will be 26 at the start of this season. So signing him until he's 29 seems OK with me. The last year or two probably won't be guaranteed anyways, so it's not like they couldn't cut him if they wanted to.
I believe he and his agent will be asking for at least five years .... tho as you say , the latter seasons would likely be only partially or non-guaranteed.
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Old 02-21-2012   #206
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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The Steelers game last year was indicative of the kind of special RB that we have in Arian. Dude made all pro Troy Polamalu look like a rookie on at least three plays, and one was in the backfield!

No system is going to give a RB the skills to know when to cut, know how to juke out all pro defenders, or the natural afterburner ability we see with Foster. He gets into the open field and anything can happen.

Let this guy go and this organization takes a step back, both in terms of talent and public perceptions.
I can't believe DB took all of what I told him in a private message and is trying to claim it for himself on here!

I kid, I kid. I forgot about the Steelers game. Another appropriate game to analyze as to why Arian Foster is more than a product of the system.

In general, to everyone here including me:

We get so wrapped up in how easy some of these guys make things look, that we tend to think they had more help than what they did. Yes, the o-line is as good and as efficient as any other in the NFL right now...but the RB has to see the cutback lanes or judge that none exists and then create something on his own (somehow) or just cut losses and fight another day. Even then, he has to have the pure athleticism to beat defenders and make big plays...especially when big plays are needed, and Arian has been as clutch as we consider a guy like AJ to be in those situations.

Steve Slaton, to a degree, was doing that his rookie season but could never replicate it again. Arian Foster was not a 1-year wonder (like Stevie One-Year-Wonder was). Arian put forth back-to-back seasons of solid football. If he isn't locked up long term, either now or sometime throughout the 2012 league year, then it's a mistake.

If the tag is used, I hope it's only a placeholder contract for what the Texans want to do for him a few months down the road. If it's merely to get ducks in a row for the long-term deal, then fine by me. But if they're just going to tag him so they don't have to handle things until February of 2012, then that's not good. That's when a player make notes and raises hell when it's time to do a long-term deal...or chooses to walk no matter what.

Texans FO: Don't be a doosh, get the deal done and move on.
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Old 02-21-2012   #207
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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I believe he and his agent will be asking for at least five years .... tho as you say , the latter seasons would likely be only partially or non-guaranteed.
Curious. Why five years?
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Old 02-21-2012   #208
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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Curious. Why five years?
Cause $$$$$$
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Old 02-21-2012   #209
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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Originally Posted by GP View Post
Curious. Why five years?
Because DeAngelo Williams got 5, and both Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson got more than 5, Arian's agent will need to make certain that he stays competitive in the unavoidable genital measuring contests with other agents.

That said, it had better be structured that by the end of year three, the only cap ramifications to saying bye bye had better be unamortized signing bonus.
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Old 02-21-2012   #210
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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Cause $$$$$$
But do a 4-year deal, and then another 3 or 4 year deal after that one.

He needs to leave himself room to get one final contract, and 5 years right now would potentially limit what he could do after the 5-year deal is up.

Gonna' only get more money as time wears on anyways. A 3 or 4 year deal, now, gets him paid and then another 3 or 4 year deal after THIS one gets him paid again. If he breaks down in year 5 of a 5 year deal, it's over...no chance at a final deal to wrap up his career in the NFL.

That's why I think 3 or 4 years is smarter in the long run.
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Old 02-21-2012   #211
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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Because DeAngelo Williams got 5, and both Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson got more than 5, Arian's agent will need to make certain that he stays competitive in the unavoidable genital measuring contests with other agents.
Arian is an unconventional cat, though.

But yeah, I can see what you're saying. I mean, I'm not VISUALIZING what you're saying, but...err, I mean...ummm...well...
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Old 02-21-2012   #212
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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But do a 4-year deal, and then another 3 or 4 year deal after that one.

He needs to leave himself room to get one final contract, and 5 years right now would potentially limit what he could do after the 5-year deal is up.

Gonna' only get more money as time wears on anyways. A 3 or 4 year deal, now, gets him paid and then another 3 or 4 year deal after THIS one gets him paid again. If he breaks down in year 5 of a 5 year deal, it's over...no chance at a final deal to wrap up his career in the NFL.

That's why I think 3 or 4 years is smarter in the long run.
But if he breaks down in year 2, then this is his last deal... Best to get as much as you can now rather than hoping you make it through 3-4 years of battle. A 29 or 30 year old Foster isn't going to be worth as much in free agency as the current 25 year old Foster. He wants to get his big deal this year, and it makes sense.
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Old 02-21-2012   #213
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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Arian is an unconventional cat, though.

But yeah, I can see what you're saying. I mean, I'm not VISUALIZING what you're saying, but...err, I mean...ummm...well...
Arian might be .... different , but I doubt his agent is any different from his peers .... those bastards are allabout the $$$.
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Old 02-21-2012   #214
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

Our zone blocking scheme is one of a kind, and it rightfully got the praise it deserved from media outlets this year, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking it can turn any running back into a good one, and any good running back into a great one.

We've seen just as many running backs fail in it, probably even more.

Our scheme fits Foster perfectly and does help him a ton, but he's a special back on his own, I realized that as soon as Schaub went down and AJ had trouble staying in the lineup.

This guy carried us throughout the season, and was fantastic in the playoffs. Our scheme is what it is, but Foster will continue to get better.
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Old 02-21-2012   #215
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

Relevant to gauging RB value:

Quote:
According to ESPN's Jamison Hensley, the Ravens don't intend to offer free agent Ray Rice "anything close" to the Adrian Peterson-type contract he is reportedly seeking.
Peterson signed a $96M contract last September and is the highest paid running back in NFL history. While Rice can make a good case that he's the game's second best back, Hensley expects the Ravens to franchise tag him in back-to-back years long before they meet the exorbitant contract demands. Tagging Rice twice would cost Baltimore an estimated $17 million for 2012-2013. Feb 20 - 3:52 PM
http://rotoworld.com/player/nfl/4645/ray-rice

If Ray Rice gets anywhere near AP money, Foster is going to want a good chunk of change, probably in the 8 mill a year range. The franchise tag for 2012 would be a bargain at that point.
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Old 02-21-2012   #216
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

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The Raiders traded their 2012 first rounder and a conditional 2nd to the Bengals for Palmer. Had the Raiders made the playoffs (which they came within a hair) and won a playoff game, they would have had to surrender their 1st rounder in 2013 rather than the 2nd rounder.

Who knows if the Raiders will still have that first rounder at the end FA this year!
Yeah, I don't know if they could do it if they had lost that 2013 pick. 2014? I have no idea. Like I said, I was just speculating based on what I managed to find quickly.
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Old 02-21-2012   #217
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Default Re: Hearing they may Franchise Tag Arian...

All this over a rumor by a newer member? Like we don't have a Pay Arian Now thread.
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Old 02-21-2012   #218
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Default Re: Pay Foster now.

Ray Rice wants Peterson type money, 7 years $100M. Is Foster worth that?

Stats wise he's up there with those guys. Age wise, Arian will be 26 when the season starts, Rice 25, Peterson 26.
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Old 02-21-2012   #219
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Default Re: Pay Foster now.

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Ray Rice wants Peterson type money, 7 years $100M. Is Foster worth that?

Stats wise he's up there with those guys. Age wise, Arian will be 26 when the season starts, Rice 25, Peterson 26.
Even AP isnt worth AP money.
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Old 02-21-2012   #220
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Default Re: Pay Foster now.

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Even AP isnt worth AP money.
Exactly.

All this is going to do, is prolong the Arian Foster contract talks. Foster & Forte's agents are going to wait until Ray Rice sets the market.

So... what does restricted FA mean? If Arian is offered a deal, we'll have to match or let him walk?
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