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Old 01-14-2012   #1
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Default Flacco Loves Home Field

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Wednesday, January 11, 2012
How sweet is home for Flacco, Ravens?
By Trevor Ebaugh and Michael Bonzagni

ESPN Stats & InformationThe Ravens’ offensive production this season has been night and day, depending on the location.
With their Week 17 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals, the Baltimore Ravens secured at least one playoff game at home.

This was good news for the Ravens because Joe Flacco has performed significantly worse on the road this season, particularly in the second half. The Ravens were also the only AFC team to go undefeated at home, but were just 4-4 on the road.

But just how important is the home field advantage? Let’s take a closer look.

Flacco has struggled away from M&T Bank Stadium when opposing defenses bring five or more pass rushers, posting a 32.7 QBR on the road compared to 62.5 at home.

Texans Defense
5+ Rushers, NFL Ranks
Rank
Yds/att 5.5 2nd
Int 7 5th
QBR 42.8 9th

The Houston Texans sent five or more pass rushers 50 percent of the time during the regular season, the second-highest rate in the NFL, and were tied for the league lead with 24 sacks in those situations.

Opposing quarterbacks had trouble handling the extra pressure Wade Phillips sent this season, as the Texans allowed the ninth-lowest Total QBR in the NFL when sending five or more rushers.

When Flacco was able to handle added pressure, the Ravens usually won. In their 12 victories during the regular season (including all eight wins at home), Flacco’s QBR against five or more rushers was 59.9, compared to 9.9 in the Ravens’ four losses (all of which came on the road).

Joe Flacco 2nd Half
This Season
Away Home
QBR 51.1 85.3
EPA 7.1 20.8
Yds/att 6.0 7.8

Digging deeper into the numbers, when Joe Flacco played well in the first half during the regular season, the Ravens usually came away with the victory.

In the Ravens’ 12 wins, Flacco posted a 29.5 Total EPA (Expected Points Added) and a 70.0 QBR in the first half. In their four losses, Flacco was much less effective, posting a Total EPA of just -0.9 and a QBR of 30.4.

Flacco’s improved performance in victories allowed offensive coordinator Cam Cameron to lean on the Ravens’ elite running game in the second half. Baltimore averaged 18 rushes in the second half of wins compared to four attempts in losses.

The Ravens have made the playoffs every year since drafting Flacco, but have not played a postseason game at home over that span. Flacco will have his hands full with the Texans’ tenacious defense, but if the regular season is any indicator, the Ravens’ home field advantage gives them the edge.
A couple of additional things that I've compiled that I find interesting:

1) The Ravens are the top NFL Red Zone defense, allowing only 38.10% TDs......but strangely enough 50% at home while 30.77% on the road.

2) The Ravens have had Flacco play action only 15% of plays.

3) The Ravens, who allow the lowest passer rating versus the blitz, brought five or more rushers 54 percent of the time on third down.

4) Flacco has a completion rate of 57%. He has completed 60 percent of his throws inside of 10 yards, but beyond that, his completion percentage drops to 38.5 percent.

5) In the last 21 games that Ray Rice has touched the ball 20 times or more, the Ravens are 20-1
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Old 01-14-2012   #2
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Default Re: Flacco Loves Home Field

Everybody makes a big deal about the Ravens road record. Seriously, go undefeated at home and split your road games every year...and your team will be a lock for the post-season at 12-4, and probably win their division.
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Old 01-14-2012   #3
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Default Re: Flacco Loves Home Field

I heard on Mike & Mike a couple of days ago that teams are like 3 - 4 in their first playoff game after going 8-0 at home in the regular season. So home field advantage during the regular season doesn't always translate to domination during the playoffs.

Also, the home team was 4-0 during the wildcard week. The home teams have never gone 8-0 during the wildcard and divisional rounds of the playoffs. So statistics say at least one of the home teams will lose this week. My money is on the Ravens.
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Old 01-14-2012   #4
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Default Re: Flacco Loves Home Field

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Originally Posted by Jaysol View Post
I heard on Mike & Mike a couple of days ago that teams are like 3 - 4 in their first playoff game after going 8-0 at home in the regular season. So home field advantage during the regular season doesn't always translate to domination during the playoffs.

Also, the home team was 4-0 during the wildcard week. The home teams have never gone 8-0 during the wildcard and divisional rounds of the playoffs. So statistics say at least one of the home teams will lose this week. My money is on the Ravens.
How much we talkin' about? $20.00? $50.00? A C-note?
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Old 01-14-2012   #5
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Default Re: Flacco Loves Home Field

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Originally Posted by Jaysol View Post
I heard on Mike & Mike a couple of days ago that teams are like 3 - 4 in their first playoff game after going 8-0 at home in the regular season. So home field advantage during the regular season doesn't always translate to domination during the playoffs.

Also, the home team was 4-0 during the wildcard week. The home teams have never gone 8-0 during the wildcard and divisional rounds of the playoffs. So statistics say at least one of the home teams will lose this week. My money is on the Ravens.
Wow! That's good stuff. The home teams have never gone 8-0 during the wildcard and divisional round.

So far this weekend the Niners have held serve and the Pats are up by two TDs early in the 2nd quarter.

Does Green Bay lose or will the loser be.....dun dun dunnnnnn.....the Ravens???
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Old 01-14-2012   #6
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Default Re: Flacco Loves Home Field

I wish ESPN would drop the stupid new QBR rating system. It's frustrating reading stuff from them.
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Old 01-14-2012   #7
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Default Re: Flacco Loves Home Field

Home field sweep unlikely this weekend.

Green Bay/Baltimore.
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Old 01-14-2012   #8
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Default Re: Flacco Loves Home Field

It could actually be that, in statistical terms, the wild-card/divisional rounds are way overdue for a sweep.

Just sayin'......
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Old 01-14-2012   #9
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Default Re: Flacco Loves Home Field

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Originally Posted by Daravenator View Post
Everybody makes a big deal about the Ravens road record. Seriously, go undefeated at home and split your road games every year...and your team will be a lock for the post-season at 12-4, and probably win their division.
The criticism doesn't have anything to do with your "road record", I'm pretty sure it's due to the teams you lost to. Jacksonville and St. Louis.
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Old 01-14-2012   #10
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Default Re: Flacco Loves Home Field

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The criticism doesn't have anything to do with your "road record", I'm pretty sure it's due to the teams you lost to. Jacksonville and St. Louis.
Shhh, Carolina and Indy for us
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Old 01-14-2012   #11
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Default Re: Flacco Loves Home Field

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Originally Posted by NastyNate View Post
Shhh, Carolina and Indy for us
And that's fine... We're starting a 3rd string rookie and NOBODY is picking us to win this game. they're the ones who are picked to hammer us and are picked to be a shoe in for the AFC Championship game.
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Old 01-14-2012   #12
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Default Re: Flacco Loves Home Field

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And that's fine... We're starting a 3rd string rookie and NOBODY is picking us to win this game. they're the ones who are picked to hammer us and are picked to be a shoe in for the AFC Championship game.
Meh. When we win, Yates is "great". When we lose, it's cause "WE HAD OUR 3RD STRING"
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Old 01-15-2012   #13
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Default Re: Flacco Loves Home Field

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Originally Posted by NastyNate View Post
Shhh, Carolina and Indy for us
Except they lost to those crappy teams while the season mattered. We lost to them with only seeding involved and half our team gone.

Not that it didn't matter to us anyway, but the situations aren't nearly comparable.
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Old 01-15-2012   #14
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Default Re: Flacco Loves Home Field

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Except they lost to those crappy teams while the season mattered. We lost to them with only seeding involved and half our team gone.

Not that it didn't matter to us anyway, but the situations aren't nearly comparable.
We were still playing for a bye week, so yes, all games mattered. Double standards are pretty prevalent in this thread. Really you want to know the only difference this week between our teams? Home field advantage. That's about it. Both teams have stoud defenses, solid run games, and streaky qb play.
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Old 01-15-2012   #15
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Default Re: Flacco Loves Home Field

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eally you want to know the only difference this week between our teams? Home field advantage. That's about it. Both teams have stoud defenses, solid run games, and streaky qb play.
That much is true.
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Old 01-15-2012   #16
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Default Re: Flacco Loves Home Field

You can't have my fruit cocktail Nasty Nate!
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Old 01-15-2012   #17
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Default Re: Flacco Loves Home Field

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You can't have my fruit cocktail Nasty Nate!
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Old 01-15-2012   #18
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Default Re: Flacco Loves Home Field

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Originally Posted by NastyNate View Post
We were still playing for a bye week, so yes, all games mattered. Double standards are pretty prevalent in this thread. Really you want to know the only difference this week between our teams? Home field advantage. That's about it. Both teams have stoud defenses, solid run games, and streaky qb play.
Good post. All that is true.
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Old 01-15-2012   #19
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Default Re: Flacco Loves Home Field

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How much we talkin' about? $20.00? $50.00? A C-note?
how about i bet you? if You win i will buy a Ravens HAT and wear it for (2- WEEKS)and i will post a pic on this site..i also will wear it around my Texans people to show you i`m a good sport... and will post on the Ravens site you would like...Same to you ,we win you buy our hat wear it 2- weeks?
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Old 01-15-2012   #20
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Default Re: Flacco Loves Home Field

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how about i bet you? if You win i will buy a Ravens HAT and wear it for (2- WEEKS)and i will post a pic on this site..i also will wear it around my Texans people to show you i`m a good sport... and will post on the Ravens site you would like...Same to you ,we win you buy our hat wear it 2- weeks?
I have no clue where I will find a Texans hat other than the Net, but I'm game! Gotta be one somewhere in the area!
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