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Old 10-25-2011   #1
gtexan02
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Default ESPN Playoff Predictor. Texans #3 seed

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story...offs-predictor

Interesting stuff.

Predicted record is 12-4 (I'll take the under)
Playoff odds are 72%

If everything plays out exactly as expected by the numbers, we'd be the #3 seed going into a game home game against the Steelers in game 1.

Some other strange predictions are the 49ers ending up 14-2 and given a 95% chance of playoffs. I guess part of that is their awful division
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Old 10-25-2011   #2
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Default Re: ESPN Playoff Predictor. Texans #3 seed

I aint paying for an NESPN account.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario

Yahoos playoff generator and its free.
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Old 10-25-2011   #3
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Default Re: ESPN Playoff Predictor. Texans #3 seed

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Originally Posted by DX-TEX View Post
I aint paying for an NESPN account.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario

Yahoos playoff generator and its free.
THe reason that ESPNs is not free like yahoos:
Quote:
One thing you can definitely say about the NFL is that it's never boring. Each Sunday brings in a new darling, a new goat and a new trendy team to replace the past week's edition. Consider the odds before the Ravens-Jags "Monday Night Football" tilt, or how Tennessee and the ageless Matt Hasselbeck were a hot commodity headed into a home game against the beat-up Texans. The NFL needs just one game to chart a whole new playoff course.

Despite all of the seismic change, we're going to do the impossible with help from our nerdy friends at numberFire -- we'll tell you whether or not your favorite team is going to make the playoffs. Call it NFL Playoffs Predictor, and if you're a Jets fan, this week you can add on some four-letter words, as well.

Starting today, every week we'll apply proprietary efficiency statistics to project the rest of the season in order to give you a highly accurate playoffs projection. We won't get out the spreadsheets, but suffice to say the algorithms factor in everything from weather to injuries to overall trends. Of course, all of this is still highly volatile, due to the fact we're not halfway through the season, but the model can get us close. So check back each week as the numbers continue to paint a clearer bracket portrait.
I'm happy to translate any info that people without an insider account are interested in
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Old 10-25-2011   #4
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Default Re: ESPN Playoff Predictor. Texans #3 seed

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Originally Posted by gtexan02 View Post
Some other strange predictions are the 49ers ending up 14-2 and given a 95% chance of playoffs. I guess part of that is their awful division
I was arguing (in another thread) about the 49ers "sudden turnaround" & saying that it won't last..... it seldom does. Remember the Rams got off to a great start last year... then fizzed away. several other teams over time.

So I was saying the 49ers weren't going to win 10 games & may not win their division.

Then I looked at their schedule. They are 5-1 now, their remaining schedule is:
  • Browns - W -
  • Skins - W -
  • Giants - L -
  • Cardinals -W -
  • Ravens - L -
  • Rams - W -
  • Cardinals - W -
  • Steelers - L -
  • SeaHawks - W -
  • Rams - W -
If Frank Gore stays healthy, there's really no reason to believe they won't win out. They've got a chance in every one of those games unless they get in a shoot-out with Alex Smith pulling the trigger.

Maybe the Cardinals get it together by then.

Maybe Bradford & Lloyd get it together.

But right now, It's hard to see them not winning 12 games. Especially since I think they'll beat the Steelers, since they won't be making the play-offs this year (Super Bowl slump).

But that all depends on Frank Gore staying healthy.
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Old 10-25-2011   #5
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Default Re: ESPN Playoff Predictor. Texans #3 seed

I know it's very early, but if we do get a home playoff game I wonder how the tickets will be sold? Do season ticket holders get first dibs at buying tickets or will it be open to everyone? I assume PSL holders will have highest priority.
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Old 10-25-2011   #6
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Default Re: ESPN Playoff Predictor. Texans #3 seed

SF's success depends on Alex Smith not being Alex Smith.


....as far as our #3, sounds about right if we win the division. Don't want to play Pittsburgh though, considering they've already picked it up pretty nicely since their sketchy start.
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Old 10-25-2011   #7
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Default Re: ESPN Playoff Predictor. Texans #3 seed

Quote:
Originally Posted by DX-TEX View Post
I aint paying for an NESPN account.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario

Yahoos playoff generator and its free.
On that site, if you select "defensive rank" they have the Jags winning the didvison...
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Old 10-25-2011   #8
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Default Re: ESPN Playoff Predictor. Texans #3 seed

Like a weatherman trying to predict weather 30+ days out, it's too early for them to putting up playoff models like this.

I'd say with 4 or 5 games left to play, a person can begin calculating things.

Right now, the "weather patterns" are not firmed up and can change based on a lot of factors. I didn't expect us to obliterate the Titans in their house. I didn't expect the ravens to blow a game to Jax in their empty Tarpvill stadium with a so-so rookie QB named Gabbert.

I just think it's too soon. Week 9, and on from there, seems to be when I think you can even have an inkling of who is good and who was pretending thus far. And i bet with 4 games left, you can put some really solid analytics into the playoff models. Just my $0.02....

But yeah, it would be interesting to see what info they pour in there and how it crunches the numbers. Weather, trends in how your team fares in the road, how you fare vs. an opponent historically, injury numbers, current trends in your offense and defense. And it all can triangulate to show you a fairly decent "odds" on your chances. I dig it. Keep us filled in.
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Old 10-25-2011   #9
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Default Re: ESPN Playoff Predictor. Texans #3 seed

Just noticed that the AFC North teams have Def rankings 1-4.
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Old 10-25-2011   #10
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Default Re: ESPN Playoff Predictor. Texans #3 seed

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Originally Posted by brakos82 View Post
Just noticed that the AFC North teams have Def rankings 1-4.
Even the Bungles???
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Old 10-25-2011   #11
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Default Re: ESPN Playoff Predictor. Texans #3 seed

Quote:
Originally Posted by TexanSam View Post
I know it's very early, but if we do get a home playoff game I wonder how the tickets will be sold? Do season ticket holders get first dibs at buying tickets or will it be open to everyone? I assume PSL holders will have highest priority.
PSL and season ticket holders get first dibs, and are actually required to purchase tickets. Then, I'm assuming, it opens up to the general public.
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Old 10-25-2011   #12
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Default Re: ESPN Playoff Predictor. Texans #3 seed

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Originally Posted by brakos82 View Post
Just noticed that the AFC North teams have Def rankings 1-4.
AFC north is playing the NFC West & AFC South so....
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Old 10-25-2011   #13
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Default Re: ESPN Playoff Predictor. Texans #3 seed

Just a quick, totally off topic note:

For those of you without ESPN Insider, don't pay the $7 a month or $3 a month or whatever they charge for it. If you subscribe to teh magazine, you can frequently get it for <$5 a year. It comes with free Insider Access. If anyone is interested, let me know and I can PM you if I see another deal come up
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Old 10-25-2011   #14
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Default Re: ESPN Playoff Predictor. Texans #3 seed

LINK


Houston:89.7% to make the playoffs and 7.2% to win Super Bowl. I'm quite sure the Texans have never been mentioned anywhere near 7.2% chance to win the Super Bowl after week 7.
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Old 10-25-2011   #15
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Default Re: ESPN Playoff Predictor. Texans #3 seed

Quote:
Originally Posted by TexanSam View Post
I know it's very early, but if we do get a home playoff game I wonder how the tickets will be sold? Do season ticket holders get first dibs at buying tickets or will it be open to everyone? I assume PSL holders will have highest priority.
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Originally Posted by houstonspartan View Post
PSL and season ticket holders get first dibs, and are actually required to purchase tickets. Then, I'm assuming, it opens up to the general public.
Here's the legalease from the PSL agreement.

Quote:
Except as provided herein, Licensee has the right and obligation to purchase at a price determined by HNFL (the "Ticket Fee") season tickets for each Seat for all Team home games (pre-season and regular season) for as long as the Team plays its home games in the Stadium. Licensee also has the right and obligation to purchase tickets for each Seat for any Team post-season games played in the Stadium (excluding Super Bowl games).
(b) If Licensee does not purchase season tickets for Licensee's designated Stadium Seat(s) by a specified deadline each year as determined by HNFL, then Licensee's rights and obligation to purchase season tickets hereunder will terminate automatically without any notice given or action taken by HNFL or the Licensor, and Licensee will forfeit all monies previously paid to the Licensor and/or HNFL
hereunder, all rights to buy season tickets associated with the Seat(s), Licensee's PSL for the
upcoming NFL season and all NFL seasons that follow. The Licensor will have the right to relicense
the forfeited PSL with no further obligation to the Licensee.
(c) If Licensee does not purchase tickets for Team post-season games played in the Stadium by the date specified by HNFL in its sole discretion, then HNFL may sell such tickets to persons other than
Licensee. If HNFL does not sell such tickets, then Licensee shall remain obligated to pay for such
tickets
and Licensee's right to transfer the PSL will be suspended until such time as Licensee has paid
for such tickets plus applicable late charges.
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Old 10-25-2011   #16
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Default Re: ESPN Playoff Predictor. Texans #3 seed



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Old 10-25-2011   #17
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Default Re: ESPN Playoff Predictor. Texans #3 seed

Man, a 12-4 record would blow my freakin' mind.

Seriously, that's only 1 loss for the rest of the season?!

Heck, 10-6 is doable and that would be a major natural high as a Texans fan.

I don't even want to daydream these thoughts. It's been so long that I can't help but daydream, though!

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Old 10-25-2011   #18
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Default Re: ESPN Playoff Predictor. Texans #3 seed

Quote:
Originally Posted by GP View Post
Like a weatherman trying to predict weather 30+ days out, it's too early for them to putting up playoff models like this.
I bet they've got more hits on their site because of that "calculator" than anything else they put up in the last three months combined... which is the point.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GP View Post
I'd say with 4 or 5 games left to play, a person can begin calculating things.

Right now, the "weather patterns" are not firmed up and can change based on a lot of factors.
I hear ya.... but we're talking about it & that's all it's meant to do.
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Old 10-25-2011   #19
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Default Re: ESPN Playoff Predictor. Texans #3 seed

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Man, a 12-4 record would blow my freakin' mind.

Seriously, that's only 1 loss for the rest of the season?!

Heck, 10-6 is doable and that would be a major natural high as a Texans fan.

I don't even want to daydream these thoughts. It's been so long that I can't help but daydream, though!

Take it a step further: clinching #1 seed in AFC on Thursday night, primetime against the Colts in Indy.:
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Old 10-25-2011   #20
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Default Re: ESPN Playoff Predictor. Texans #3 seed

The by week coming late may now be an advantage going into playoffs. Then if we get another week between end of season and first playoff game? That would heal a bunch of injuries.
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