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Old 10-14-2011   #1
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Default Our road to the playoffs goes through Tennessee

I would like to beat the Ravens, but the must win game is the Titans on October 23rd.

This year the Colts and Jags are struggling, leaving the division to us or the Titans. That's the race to watch. If we beat the Titans on the 23rd, then we will likely control our destiny all the way to the last game with the Titans in Houston, because (with the tie breaker) they would have to win three more of the other games than us to make that final game not matter. I don't think they will win three more of the other games than us. And if we can't beat them in Houston on the final game of the year, then we don't belong in the playoffs anyway.

But we MUST win on the 23rd. If we lose then the Texans would have to win zero or one more (depending on tie breakers) than the Titans for the final game to matter. So if we lose to the Ravens, then we have to win one extra game; if we lose to the Titans we have to win 3 or 4 extra games!

Of the remaining games of the Texans and Titans here are our common opponents:
Bengals
Panthers
Falcons
Buccaneers
Jaguars
Colts

The three different opponents look easier for us:

Titans play Colts (2nd time), Bills, and Saints
Texans play Jaguars (2nd time), Ravens, and Browns

And of course we play each other.

Last edited by OilerTexan; 10-14-2011 at 11:48 AM.
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Old 10-14-2011   #2
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Default Re: Our road to the playoffs goes through Tennessee

Any bets on who wins the division with an 8-8 or 9-7 record this year?
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Old 10-14-2011   #3
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Default Re: Our road to the playoffs goes through Tennessee

So you put the jags and colts as common opponents and different opponents?
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Old 10-14-2011   #4
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Default Re: Our road to the playoffs goes through Tennessee

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So you put the jags and colts as common opponents and different opponents?
Yes, we each play them at least once more. What is different is that the Texans play the Jags an extra time (because we haven't yet played them) and the Titans play the Colts an extra time. I should have made that clear.
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Old 10-14-2011   #5
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Default Re: Our road to the playoffs goes through Tennessee

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I would like to beat the Ravens, but the must win game is the Titans on October 23rd.
They're all must wins, especially the next three. If we lead 3-0 on the Titans in division games, that practically takes them out of the race. Winning the next three will give us a 2.5 game lead outright, with the "easier" part of our schedule coming up.

We would be 6-2 which puts the possibility of going 5-7 this year to bed.
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Old 10-14-2011   #6
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Default Re: Our road to the playoffs goes through Tennessee

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
They're all must wins, especially the next three. If we lead 3-0 on the Titans in division games, that practically takes them out of the race. Winning the next three will give us a 2.5 game lead outright, with the "easier" part of our schedule coming up.

We would be 6-2 which puts the possibility of going 5-7 this year to bed.


I shole hope so!!

Let's pray the Raiders game wasn't the start of the Texans' annual 4-game losing streak.
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Old 10-14-2011   #7
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Default Re: Our road to the playoffs goes through Tennessee

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Originally Posted by DexmanC View Post
[/b]

I shole hope so!!

Let's pray the Raiders game wasn't the start of the Texans' annual 4-game losing streak.
Well, if it is, at least we'll get it over early this year.

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Old 10-14-2011   #8
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Default Re: Our road to the playoffs goes through Tennessee

Quote:
Originally Posted by DexmanC View Post
[/b]

I shole hope so!!

Let's pray the Raiders game wasn't the start of the Texans' annual 4-game losing streak.

UGH, just had to bring that one out didn't you? LOL, well if we do lose this week (which I think we will WIN actually, I will explain later), then it becomes a must win vs the Tacks. If we win vs the Ravens, then the first Tacks game is not a must win. We can get "even" week 17 plus we would already have the upper hand on common games with wins over the Ravens AND Steelers. But lets not get ahead of ourselves yet, concentrate on B-More and see what happens.
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Old 10-14-2011   #9
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Default Re: Our road to the playoffs goes through Tennessee

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Originally Posted by DexmanC View Post
[/b]

I shole hope so!!

Let's pray the Raiders game wasn't the start of the Texans' annual 4-game losing streak.
Even if the Texans win this week, I won't rule out the potential for 5-7 until it's numerically impossible.

I never thought the 4-2 start last season would result in 5-7, but there it is, staring us in the face.

Four years in a row is just one of those stats that perplexes you for so many freakin' reasons.
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Old 10-14-2011   #10
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Default Re: Our road to the playoffs goes through Tennessee

Yep and then the team after that and the team after that.
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Old 10-14-2011   #11
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Default Re: Our road to the playoffs goes through Tennessee

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Yep and then the team after that and the team after that.
You missed my point. If we beat the Titans we can lose to "the team after that and the team after that" and still have a better chance to win the division, than if we lose to the Titans and beat the two next teams. My point is that the Titans game is more important than any two games against other opponents.
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Old 10-14-2011   #12
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Default Re: Our road to the playoffs goes through Tennessee

Quote:
Originally Posted by Double Barrel View Post
Even if the Texans win this week, I won't rule out the potential for 5-7 until it's numerically impossible.

I never thought the 4-2 start last season would result in 5-7, but there it is, staring us in the face.

Four years in a row is just one of those stats that perplexes you for so many freakin' reasons.
Yeah, that's so depressing yet true.
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Old 10-14-2011   #13
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Default Re: Our road to the playoffs goes through Tennessee

Quote:
Originally Posted by DexmanC View Post
[/b]

I shole hope so!!

Let's pray the Raiders game wasn't the start of the Texans' annual 4-game losing streak.
nice call, i hope balt has an off day
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Old 10-14-2011   #14
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Default Re: Our road to the playoffs goes through Tennessee

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Originally Posted by DexmanC View Post
[/b]

I shole hope so!!

Let's pray the Raiders game wasn't the start of the Texans' annual 4-game losing streak.
Dex, I'm not gonna drop a Dr. Kambon or Mr. F. Douglass on you (that's better served in another forum ), but I honestly had the Texans at the worst 3-3 and at best 4-2 into the first six games this season... My one "swing" game was not the Steelers, but rather the Raiders. I knew the Raiders would be better this season, but honestly, I did not count on shutting McFadden down, nor did I count on The Sythe Lord, errrrr Mr. Davis' passing...

If we lose to Balty, which everyone and their mothers suspect the Texans will do (well except for Sterling Sharpe) , we're 3-3. I still have us at 10-6 or 11-5...

Bottom line, they're will be no 4 game losing streak.


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Old 10-14-2011   #15
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Default Re: Our road to the playoffs goes through Tennessee

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I knew the Raiders would be better this season, but honestly, I did not count on shutting McFadden down....
I think we need to discuss this a little more, because we haven't discussed it much at all.

We came into this game allowing what just over 5 ypc & the Raiders were allowing close to 6 ypc, but we get together & we're shutting down two of the best run games in the league?

Before the game, I thought I heard Kubiak say that they run the ball similarly to the way we do.. that they use some (maybe a lot) of zone blocking. He mentioned it as an advantage for us.

It looks as though it was a benefit to both of us indeed.

So I look at it like this. It doesn't matter if we think the Raiders are good, or not. If their run game is similar to ours & they see it every day in practice.... the chances of another team shutting us down (even though we were doing averagely well in the first half), I don't think another team is going to be able to do the same.

At the same time, the chances of our run D being as good as it looked against the Raiders, chances are, when we face a traditional run game, we'll go back to allowing 5 ypc...
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Old 10-14-2011   #16
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Default Re: Our road to the playoffs goes through Tennessee

The Tits have played a lot better than I thought the would, but I think they will falter down the stretch.
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Last edited by False Start; 10-15-2011 at 07:19 AM.
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Old 10-14-2011   #17
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Default Re: Our road to the playoffs goes through Tennessee

cool, thx
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Old 10-14-2011   #18
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Default Re: Our road to the playoffs goes through Tennessee

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
They're all must wins, especially the next three. If we lead 3-0 on the Titans in division games, that practically takes them out of the race. Winning the next three will give us a 2.5 game lead outright, with the "easier" part of our schedule coming up.

We would be 6-2 which puts the possibility of going 5-7 this year to bed.
Even if they lose this week to the Ravens and are .500 going into next weeks game w/ the Tits .... I can still see them winning 10-11 games since the back end of the schedule is much easier than what they will have played after Sundays game.


The only games left I expect them to have difficulty with are Tampa Bay and possibly Atlanta.
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Old 10-14-2011   #19
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Default Re: Our road to the playoffs goes through Tennessee

The Texans' road to the playoffs goes through Gary Kubiak's game planning and game day decisions on a week to week basis.

Been that way for AT LEAST the past three seasons.
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Old 10-14-2011   #20
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Default Re: Our road to the playoffs goes through Tennessee

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The Texans' road to the playoffs goes through Gary Kubiak's game planning and game day decisions on a week to week basis.

Been that way for AT LEAST the past three seasons.
I guess you forget how .... wide open Kubiaks schemes got guy's like Dreessen and Vickers last week against the Raiders .... Its not like those guy's are going to "Beat" coverage very often its Kubiaks game scheme and planning that get them wide open.


Or just think about ..... how often AJ gets lost by defenders when there are two guy's responsible for him on most plays.

The coaches job is to put his team in a position to win - For the most part , Kubiak has afforded his players the opportunity to make those plays to win ... Its the players who have failed to hold up their end.

Last weeks game - You can point to Rackers missing a FG which had he made would have allowed them to win with a FG rather than needing a TD ..... Or you can point to Vickers dropping a gimmie ..... Or Schaub throwing a pick on the games final play. In each situation , the coaching staff gave the team the opportunity to make a play ..... The players failed.


Much of the discussion on this forum was about how difficult the first 6 games were and many said they would be happy with going 3-3 during that stretch .... and that the back end of the schedule was much easier.
The Texans have 11 more football games to play ..... Lets see how they play out before we go calling for heads to roll.
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