Go Back   Houston Texans Message Board & Forum - TexansTalk.com > The Great Fans of the Houston Texans > Texans Talk
Home Forums Register FAQDonate Automatic Monthly Contribution Members List Mark Forums Read


Texans Talk Football talk only please. Keep it to the game, the players, the coaches and management.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-01-2011   #1
TheCD
All Pro
 
TheCD's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Wichita Falls, TX
Age: 28
Posts: 981
Rep Power: 1036 TheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respected
Default How Good Is Our Offense (Statistical Breakdown)

There has been a lot of talk about just how effective Kubiak’s offense is. It’s obvious to all of us watching that it gets off to slow starts, or falters in the second half. I spent this summer compiling data and analyzing statistics to see just how effective this offense has been. This is a summary of my findings. I will avoid inserting my opinions until the very end. My hope is that this data will help to spark a logical debate as to the offenses effectiveness.

For those of you who are not mathematically inclined or just don’t care to read about how the methods used to determine these findings, please feel free to skip the final post where I summarize my findings in the conclusion.


Goals:
I decided to begin this research by becoming as narrow and specific as possible in my goals. My goal is simply the following: How effective is Houston’s offense against opposing defenses in terms of points scored. Bill Belichick famously said that stats are for losers. However, he then went on to say that the most meaningful stats are games won, followed by points scored. I decided that the best way of determining how good the offense has been was to remove all factors other than points scored by the offense, and weighed this against the overall defensive ranking against that team that season (I determined defensive rankings also by points allowed, rather than yards).

Methods:
My first decision was to narrow the offenses performance down to only points scored and weigh that against the defenses points per game allowed in a season. My second decision was to remove all defensive/special teams points scored, though I decided to allow field goals to count towards my numbers. I then had to choose how many seasons to go back for reference to provide a good pool of numbers. I decided to chart all the way back to the 2007 season, as this was our first season with Matt, and what could essentially be called the “modern” era of Kubiak’s offense.

This research also completely ignores wins and losses, focusing solely on offensive performance.

For those statistically/mathematically inclined, it should come as no surprise that the primary formula used to determine these findings was Standard Deviation (S.D.). I apologize for not providing the specific formula, but cannot do so with a standard keyboard.

Briefly, the S.D. for all games from 2007 to 2010 is:

Sa = 3.6
Sb = 4.4

What this means is that any game in which we scored more than 3.6 offensive points than that defense allowed on average in a season, our offense performed better than average. Likewise, any offensive points that resulted in 4.4 points less than what the defense averaged in a season was a poor showing by our team. Any games that fell between 3.6 and 4.4 was an average showing by our team.

For those of you not used to S.D., here is a brief summary of what I did and why I used it: S.D. is a method for understanding how unusual a score is in relation to other scores. What this allowed me to do was chart all of the Texans’ offensive points against defensive rankings (how many points that defense averaged per game) and determine if the Texans performed above, at, or below the average points scored against that particular defense. For example, in 2009 the New York Jets had the #1 defense in terms of points allowed and averaged 14.8 p.p.g. on defense. Our offense scored no points in this game. Since Houston’s S.D. for points scored below average is 4.4, this means that we scored 10.4 points fewer than other teams in the season. This is a very large S.D. and (obviously) a horrendous performance by our team.

The benefit of using S.D. is that you can easily determine what scores do not fall within what defenses would normally give up throughout the season. Any scores higher than the S.D. on either scale means that the offense performed either very well, or very poorly.


All data comes directly from NFL.com.
TheCD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-01-2011   #2
TheCD
All Pro
 
TheCD's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Wichita Falls, TX
Age: 28
Posts: 981
Rep Power: 1036 TheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: How Good Is Our Offense (Statistical Breakdown)

The Houston Texans offense ranked as follows:

Where Sb is below S.D., Sa is above S.D., and Sn is within the S.D.

2007: 12th in NFL (23.7 ppg)
- Sa = 7/Sb = 5/Sn = 4
2008 17th in NFL (22.9 ppg)
- Sa = 8/Sb = 4/Sn = 4
2009: 10th in NFL (24.2 ppg)
- Sa = 7/Sb = 4/Sn = 5
2010: 9th in NFL (24.4 ppg)
- Sa = 7/Sb = 4/Sn = 5

Over the course of the “modern” era, this means that our offense has averaged 23.8 ppg and has averaged 12th in the NFL in terms of points scored.

Findings:
My analysis showed the following results over the course of 4 seasons (64 games):

1. We played in a total of 19 games which fell within the S.D.
-This means that about 30% games, our offense was “average”.

2. 16 games were played in which our offense scored below the S.D.
-In other words, 25% of games played resulted in our offense scoring well below what other offenses did that season.

3. 29 games were played in which our offense scored above the S.D.
-Or, 45% of our games involved our offense performing better against a defense than the rest of the league.

As for the more interesting findings:

1. We played 28 playoff teams (as defined as teams that went to the playoffs that season):
- 3 games were below the S.D.
- 8 games were within.
- 17 games were above.

This means that of the 28 games we played against playoff teams, our offense performed better than average against roughly 61% (or 17 teams). They only performed worse against 3 teams.

Here are the defensive rankings by season of the playoff teams faced (again, in terms of points allowed). Keep in mind that the “Above” or “Below” is how many points we scored over or under what they typically allowed (on average) that season, and not how many points we scored overall. Division opponents have slashes to represent both games:


2007 Season:
1. Colts (1st – 16.4 ppg)
- Above 7.6/Below 1.4
2. Buccaneers (3rd – 16.9 ppg)
- Above 11.1
3. Chargers (5th -17.8 ppg)
- Below 7.8
4. Titans (8th – 18.6 ppg)
- Above 9.4/Above 9.4
5. Jaguars (10th – 19.0 ppg)
- Below 2.0/Above 9.0

2008 Season:
1. Steelers (1st – 13.9 ppg)
- Above 3.1
2. Titans (2nd – 14.6 ppg)
- Below 2.6/Below 1.6
3. Ravens (3rd – 15.2 ppg)
- Below 2.2
4. Colts (7th – 18.6 ppg)
- Above 8.4/Above 8.4
5. Dolphins (9th – 19.8 ppg)
- Above 9.2
6. Vikings (13th – 20.8 ppg)
- Above 7.2


2009 Season:
1. Jets (1st – 14.8 ppg)
- Below 14.8
2. Patriots (5th – 17.8 ppg)
- Above 16.2
3. Bengals (6th – 18.2 pg)
- Above 9.8
4. Colts (8th – 19.2 ppg)
- Below 2.2/Above 7.8
5. Cardinals (14th – 20.3 ppg)
- Above 0.7

2010 Season:
6. Ravens (3rd – 16.9 ppg)
- Above 11.1
7. Jets (6th – 19.0 ppg)
- Above 8.0
8. Chiefs (11th – 20.4 ppg)
- Above 14.6
9. Eagles (21st – 23.6 ppg)
- Above 0.4
10. Colts (23rd – 24.2 ppg)
- Above 9.8/Below 7.2

As you can see we have faced the #1 and #3 defenses 3 out of the last 4 years. Likewise, of the 28 playoff teams we have faced, 9 have been top-5 defenses, and 19 have been top-16.


Overall Performance:
The next step I took was to break down all of the games played based on the rankings of the defense. Defenses are broken down as follows:

Top-10 Defense (24 total)
Sa = 14/Sb = 2/Sn = 8
11-16 Defense (10 total)
Sa = 5/Sb = 2/Sn = 3
17-22 Defense (9 total)
Sa = 5/Sb = 2/Sn = 2
Bottom-10 Defense (21 total)
Sa = 5/Sb = 10/Sn = 6

This is perhaps the most intriguing and confusing part of all of my analysis:

Top-10 Defense:
- We have played 24 teams over the last 4 season in the top-10 for defense. Of those 24 teams:

1. 14 (or about 58% of) games have resulted in our offense scoring above the S.D. Or, our offense has played very well against more than half of the top-10 defenses we have played.
2. 2 (or 8% of) games played have resulted in our offense scoring below the S.D., meaning our offense performed poorly.
3. The remaining 8 (33%) games we within the S.D. and our offense scored as the defenses had allowed throughout the season.

11-16 Defenses:
- We have played ten 11-16 teams, of those:

1. 5 (50%) games have been above the S.D.
2. 2 (20%) have been below the S.D.
3. 3 (30%) have been average.

17-22 Defenses:
- We have played nine 17-22 teams, of those:

1. 5 (56%) have been above the S.D.
2. 2 (22.5%) have been below the S.D.
3. 2 (22.5%) have been average.

Now to the confusing part.

Bottom-10 Defenses:
-We have played 21 total bottom-10 defenses. Of those:

1. 5 (24%) have been above the S.D.
2. 10 (48%) have been below the S.D.
3. 6 (28%) have been average.
TheCD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-01-2011   #3
TheCD
All Pro
 
TheCD's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Wichita Falls, TX
Age: 28
Posts: 981
Rep Power: 1036 TheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: How Good Is Our Offense (Statistical Breakdown)

Divisional Opponents:

We have played 24 divisional games in the last 4 years. Of those games:

1. 12 (50%) have been above the S.D.
2. 3 (12.5%) have been below the S.D.
3. 9 (37.5%) have been average).

By team (8 games with each team):
1. Colts (1st, 7th, 8th, 23rd defenses respectively)
- 5 (62.8%) have been above the S.D.
- 1 (12.5%) has been below the S.D.
- 2 (25%) have been average.
2. Titans (8th, 2nd, 28th, 15th defenses respectively)
- 3 (37.5%) have been above the S.D.
- 1 (12.5%) has been below the S.D.
- 4 (50%) have been average.
3. Jaguars (10th, 21st, 24th, 27th defenses respectively)
- 4 (50%) have been above the S.D.
- 1 (12.5%) has been below the S.D.
- 3 (37.5%) have been average.

Since we played the Raiders all 4 years:

4. Raiders (26th, 24th, 23rd, 20th defenses respectively)
- 1 (25%) has been above the S.D.
- 1 (25%) has been below the S.D.
- 2 (50%) have been average.



Conference Play:

AFC Teams:
- We have played 48 AFC teams the last 4 seasons, of those:

1. 22 (49%) have been above the S.D.
2. 11 (23%) have been below the S.D.
3. 15 (about 28 %) have been average.

NFC Teams
- We have played 16 NFC teams the last 4 seasons, of those:

1. 7 (44%) have been above the S.D.
2. 5 (31%) have been below the S.D.
3. 4 (25%) have been average.


Now to the most interesting part, in my opinion. All of the above calculations are from one S.D. from the mean. If we then look at 2 Standard Deviations (meaning that the numbers are extremely unusual), we will find some very good news.

In the following:

S2a = 7.2
S2b = 8.8

The following are examples of our offense scoring 2 Standard Deviations from what their opponents typically allowed. What this means is that if our offense scored under 8.8 points from what a defense allowed in a season, our offense played horribly. If they scored more than 7.2 points from the average then the offense performed exceptionally well.

1. Of the 29 games in which our offense scored above average, 22 games were over 2 Standard Deviations.
a. 13 games against top-10 defenses including the #1 Colts in ’07, 4 against 11-17 teams.
2. Of the 16 games in which our offense scored below average, 6 games were below 2 Standard Deviations.
a. 2 games against top-10 teams including #1 Jets in ’09, 4 against bottom-10 teams.
TheCD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-01-2011   #4
TheCD
All Pro
 
TheCD's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Wichita Falls, TX
Age: 28
Posts: 981
Rep Power: 1036 TheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: How Good Is Our Offense (Statistical Breakdown)

So what does this all mean? Well, simply put:

Our offense outperformed other offenses in 29 (45%) of the games played. Conversely, our offenses played more poorly than other offenses in 16 (25%) of games. During the remaining 19 (30%) of games, our offenses performed equal to other offenses against the opponents we faced.


Conclusion:

It is my estimation that our offense has performed well and above expectation against stronger opponents. However, our offense tends to sputter and stall out against bottom-10 defenses, though not to a great extent.

The only variable I couldn’t account for was vs. 4-3 or 3-4 defenses, as I wasn’t able to find reliable sources telling me what teams ran which defenses. While two of our worst offense performances are against 3-4 teams (Cowboys and Jets) there are 3-4 teams in the exceptional offensive performances, too (Ravens ’10, Patriots ’09, Jets ’10, Oakland ’10, Buffalo ’09, KC? ’09). However, a great majority of games we have played exceptionally have come against 4-3 teams.

While I was hoping for a clearer picture on the offenses performance, I am left with more questions than I originally asked. Why does our offense show up against top-22 defenses, but not against bottom-10 teams? It seems as though from the data that our offense, while problematic at times, is really not the issue at hand (duh).

Certainly, our offense cannot be expected to play exceptionally every game. If we had a defense that was able to account for a poor performance (not even a horrid one), then I can look at only 6 games in the last 4 seasons in which the defense surely couldn’t be expected to pick up the slack for the offense. Conversely, the offense has 22 games in which it performed exceptionally.

If you take into account the games in which they just played very well then you can easily say that the offense did more than its job in 29 of 64 games. While that doesn’t sound impressive, remember that the offense played 13 top-10 teams in those games. If you would like to take it one step further, in the games in which the offense performed average, then there are 48 games in which the offense (at a bare minimum) did what it was asked to do. The S.D. in this case shows that any points between a field goal and a TD that were scored over what the defense averaged is one S.D. (a good showing). However, our offense more frequently scored greater than 7 points over what the defenses averaged in a season,

These numbers are all the more impressive when you look at it as follows:

The team that we played during this span that surrendered the fewest defense ppg allowed, was the Steelers (’08) at 13.9 ppg. Our offense (again, these are offensive points and field goals only) scored 17 points that game, which put us at 3.1 points above their average. The Colts in ’07 also surrendered the fewest ppg at 16.4. Our offense scored 24 points in the first outing against them that game, for Sa of 7.6. Keep these number differences in mind as you look back at the differences from the averages and you will likely be very pleased.


I hope this helps shed some light into how our offense has performed. I certainly worked my butt off to get these stats and share them with you all!
TheCD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-01-2011   #5
leebigeztx
Hall of Fame
 
leebigeztx's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: League City formerly of LaMarque
Age: 43
Posts: 1,616
Rep Power: 29411 leebigeztx is a quality contributor and well respectedleebigeztx is a quality contributor and well respectedleebigeztx is a quality contributor and well respectedleebigeztx is a quality contributor and well respectedleebigeztx is a quality contributor and well respectedleebigeztx is a quality contributor and well respectedleebigeztx is a quality contributor and well respectedleebigeztx is a quality contributor and well respectedleebigeztx is a quality contributor and well respectedleebigeztx is a quality contributor and well respectedleebigeztx is a quality contributor and well respected
Send a message via MSN to leebigeztx
Default Re: How Good Is Our Offense (Statistical Breakdown)

Great breakdown, but,I think offense is more ebb and flow vs stats. Example, if offense is suppose to be the strongpoint and has to carry the weaklink, why were the texans going 3 and out so much early in the game? The colts have played with defenses not built to shut teas down, but you rarely see peyton and company go 3 and out early in games.
__________________
Be a student of the game, not a fan.
leebigeztx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2011   #6
80tothezone
Hall of Fame
 
80tothezone's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 1,598
Rep Power: 5079 80tothezone is a quality contributor and well respected80tothezone is a quality contributor and well respected80tothezone is a quality contributor and well respected80tothezone is a quality contributor and well respected80tothezone is a quality contributor and well respected80tothezone is a quality contributor and well respected80tothezone is a quality contributor and well respected80tothezone is a quality contributor and well respected80tothezone is a quality contributor and well respected80tothezone is a quality contributor and well respected80tothezone is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: How Good Is Our Offense (Statistical Breakdown)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheCD View Post
So what does this all mean? Well, simply put:

Our offense outperformed other offenses in 29 (45%) of the games played. Conversely, our offenses played more poorly than other offenses in 16 (25%) of games. During the remaining 19 (30%) of games, our offenses performed equal to other offenses against the opponents we faced.


Conclusion:

It is my estimation that our offense has performed well and above expectation against stronger opponents. However, our offense tends to sputter and stall out against bottom-10 defenses, though not to a great extent.

The only variable I couldn’t account for was vs. 4-3 or 3-4 defenses, as I wasn’t able to find reliable sources telling me what teams ran which defenses. While two of our worst offense performances are against 3-4 teams (Cowboys and Jets) there are 3-4 teams in the exceptional offensive performances, too (Ravens ’10, Patriots ’09, Jets ’10, Oakland ’10, Buffalo ’09, KC? ’09). However, a great majority of games we have played exceptionally have come against 4-3 teams.

While I was hoping for a clearer picture on the offenses performance, I am left with more questions than I originally asked. Why does our offense show up against top-22 defenses, but not against bottom-10 teams? It seems as though from the data that our offense, while problematic at times, is really not the issue at hand (duh).

Certainly, our offense cannot be expected to play exceptionally every game. If we had a defense that was able to account for a poor performance (not even a horrid one), then I can look at only 6 games in the last 4 seasons in which the defense surely couldn’t be expected to pick up the slack for the offense. Conversely, the offense has 22 games in which it performed exceptionally.

If you take into account the games in which they just played very well then you can easily say that the offense did more than its job in 29 of 64 games. While that doesn’t sound impressive, remember that the offense played 13 top-10 teams in those games. If you would like to take it one step further, in the games in which the offense performed average, then there are 48 games in which the offense (at a bare minimum) did what it was asked to do. The S.D. in this case shows that any points between a field goal and a TD that were scored over what the defense averaged is one S.D. (a good showing). However, our offense more frequently scored greater than 7 points over what the defenses averaged in a season,

These numbers are all the more impressive when you look at it as follows:

The team that we played during this span that surrendered the fewest defense ppg allowed, was the Steelers (’08) at 13.9 ppg. Our offense (again, these are offensive points and field goals only) scored 17 points that game, which put us at 3.1 points above their average. The Colts in ’07 also surrendered the fewest ppg at 16.4. Our offense scored 24 points in the first outing against them that game, for Sa of 7.6. Keep these number differences in mind as you look back at the differences from the averages and you will likely be very pleased.


I hope this helps shed some light into how our offense has performed. I certainly worked my butt off to get these stats and share them with you all!
pretty sure I got copies of madden from those yrs if ya want to know what d's those teams ran let me know
__________________
Thinking inside the box is not thinking, it is processing..... GET OUT OF THE BOX AND THINK!!!
80tothezone is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2011   #7
thunderkyss 
& so it begins
 
thunderkyss's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Texas
Age: 42
Posts: 34,335
Rep Power: 234681 thunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respected
Send a message via Yahoo to thunderkyss
Default Re: How Good Is Our Offense (Statistical Breakdown)

I appreciate all the work you put into this CD, but like leebigeztx mentioned, your conclusion doesn't support what my eyes told me.

Not that I will totally disgard your work, but i'll try to find a way to make it fit what I believe
__________________
thunderkyss is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored links
Old 09-02-2011   #8
TheCD
All Pro
 
TheCD's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Wichita Falls, TX
Age: 28
Posts: 981
Rep Power: 1036 TheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: How Good Is Our Offense (Statistical Breakdown)

Quote:
Originally Posted by 80tothezone View Post
pretty sure I got copies of madden from those yrs if ya want to know what d's those teams ran let me know
That would help out a lot. I've already gotten the games broken down, so it wouldn't take me long to throw that in there.
TheCD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2011   #9
eriadoc
Texan-American
 
eriadoc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 18,247
Rep Power: 240829 eriadoc is a quality contributor and well respectederiadoc is a quality contributor and well respectederiadoc is a quality contributor and well respectederiadoc is a quality contributor and well respectederiadoc is a quality contributor and well respectederiadoc is a quality contributor and well respectederiadoc is a quality contributor and well respectederiadoc is a quality contributor and well respectederiadoc is a quality contributor and well respectederiadoc is a quality contributor and well respectederiadoc is a quality contributor and well respected
Send a message via ICQ to eriadoc Send a message via Yahoo to eriadoc
Default Re: How Good Is Our Offense (Statistical Breakdown)

How good are they? There's really only one offensive stat from last year that I'm concerned with - fist half points. When you're playing with a defense that's putting you in a hole, you can't afford to be lending them shovels.
__________________
Anyone but Schaub.
eriadoc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2011   #10
TheCD
All Pro
 
TheCD's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Wichita Falls, TX
Age: 28
Posts: 981
Rep Power: 1036 TheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: How Good Is Our Offense (Statistical Breakdown)

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
I appreciate all the work you put into this CD, but like leebigeztx mentioned, your conclusion doesn't support what my eyes told me.

Not that I will totally disgard your work, but i'll try to find a way to make it fit what I believe
Thanks. I totally understand that you have different conclusions. That's why I put this in such a way that we can look at it and debate the merits of our offense.

The whole point of my impressions are that while our offense doesn't seem to march down the field as regularly as other teams, we are definitely scoring more often than most. In my opinion that is what matters the most.
TheCD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2011   #11
infantrycak
Lead Moderator
 
infantrycak's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Austin, TX
Age: 47
Posts: 46,124
Rep Power: 330323 infantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: How Good Is Our Offense (Statistical Breakdown)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheCD View Post
Thanks. I totally understand that you have different conclusions. That's why I put this in such a way that we can look at it and debate the merits of our offense.

The whole point of my impressions are that while our offense doesn't seem to march down the field as regularly as other teams, we are definitely scoring more often than most. In my opinion that is what matters the most.
Mine too. Thanks for the work.

For those who don't want to give credit to the offense and want to go off their eyes, I would say ask Ray Lewis what he thinks. Bet he comes back with a favorable report on what his eyes told him.
__________________
The Art of War
infantrycak is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2011   #12
thunderkyss 
& so it begins
 
thunderkyss's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Texas
Age: 42
Posts: 34,335
Rep Power: 234681 thunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respected
Send a message via Yahoo to thunderkyss
Default Re: How Good Is Our Offense (Statistical Breakdown)

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Mine too. Thanks for the work.

For those who don't want to give credit to the offense and want to go off their eyes, I would say ask Ray Lewis what he thinks. Bet he comes back with a favorable report on what his eyes told him.


Forget points for a moment..
Let me ask you this.

Do you think the offense had an obligation to keep the defense off the clock? Our offense was 22nd in TOP

As far as Ray Lewis is concerned, he's from a good defense. We've got a bad defense. Apples & Oranges.
__________________
thunderkyss is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2011   #13
Texans_Chick
Utopian Dreamer
 
Texans_Chick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 7,248
Rep Power: 74671 Texans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respectedTexans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respectedTexans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respectedTexans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respectedTexans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respectedTexans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respectedTexans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respectedTexans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respectedTexans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respectedTexans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respectedTexans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: How Good Is Our Offense (Statistical Breakdown)

The Texans punted 63 times last year.

The most punts in the league was Carolina with 95.

Fewest punts was San Diego with 52. Not dispositive, but the better offensive teams tend to punt less.

Also worth keeping in mind with the few punts, the Texans averaged the worst starting field position in the league. Makes that harder to do.

Unfortunately, the Texans weren't very good, as you know, at forcing punts. Hopefully that changes.
__________________
More? Please check out Ultimate Texans Chronicle Blog & Steph Stradley Blog & Twitter @StephStradley
Texans_Chick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2011   #14
thunderkyss 
& so it begins
 
thunderkyss's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Texas
Age: 42
Posts: 34,335
Rep Power: 234681 thunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respected
Send a message via Yahoo to thunderkyss
Default Re: How Good Is Our Offense (Statistical Breakdown)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
The Texans punted 63 times last year.

The most punts in the league was Carolina with 95.

Fewest punts was San Diego with 52. Not dispositive, but the better offensive teams tend to punt less.

Also worth keeping in mind with the few punts, the Texans averaged the worst starting field position in the league. Makes that harder to do.

Unfortunately, the Texans weren't very good, as you know, at forcing punts. Hopefully that changes.
That's a great stat.. definitely against my assertion.

But I wonder how many of those punts were in the first half & how many were in the second.

I'd bet it's nowhere near a 50/50 split, which I think aids my point.
__________________
thunderkyss is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2011   #15
Texans_Chick
Utopian Dreamer
 
Texans_Chick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 7,248
Rep Power: 74671 Texans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respectedTexans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respectedTexans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respectedTexans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respectedTexans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respectedTexans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respectedTexans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respectedTexans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respectedTexans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respectedTexans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respectedTexans_Chick is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: How Good Is Our Offense (Statistical Breakdown)

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
That's a great stat.. definitely against my assertion.

But I wonder how many of those punts were in the first half & how many were in the second.

I'd bet it's nowhere near a 50/50 split, which I think aids my point.
Schaub's first quarter/first half numbers were not normal for him last year.

They have VERY good time of possession the previous year. The previous year their defense was inconsistent and slightly below average, but not catastrophically bad like last year.

The offense did shoot itself in the foot last year some, but it is worth noting: 1. Sometimes they could only get the ball back after the other team scored or slowly marched down the field and scored. 2. They played some very very good defenses. Look at that list of teams best at forcing punts--Texans played a lot of those teams. By the end of games, they often scored way more on those offenses than is typically scored against them.
__________________
More? Please check out Ultimate Texans Chronicle Blog & Steph Stradley Blog & Twitter @StephStradley
Texans_Chick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2011   #16
TheCD
All Pro
 
TheCD's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Wichita Falls, TX
Age: 28
Posts: 981
Rep Power: 1036 TheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respectedTheCD is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: How Good Is Our Offense (Statistical Breakdown)

Here is my quick-list of season-by-season games broken down into:

Team, Defensive average ppg, Defense rank in points allowed, the games adjusted score to reflect offensive points only, and how many points we scored above or below their average.

2007: (Offense: 23.7 ppg) - 12th

Kansas City - 20.9 ppg - 14th (W 13-3) Below 7.9
Carolina Panthers - 21.7 ppg - 15th (34-21) Above 12.3
Indianapolis Colts - 16.4 ppg - 1st (L 30-24) Above 7.6
Atlanta Falcons - 25.9 ppg - 29th (L 26-10) Below 15.9
Miami Dolphins - 27.3 ppg - 30th (W 22-19) Below 5.3
Jacksonville Jaguars- 19.0 ppg -10th (L 37-17) Below 2.0
Tennessee Titans - 18.6 ppg - 8th (L 38-28) Above 9.4
San Diego Chargers - 17.8 ppg -5th (L 13-10) Below 7.8
Oakland Raiders - 24.9 ppg - 26th (W 24-17) Below .9
New Orleans Saints - 24.2 ppg - 25th (W 23-10) Below 1.2
Cleveland Browns - 23.9 ppg - 21st (L 27-17) Below 6.9
Tennessee Titans - 18.6 ppg - 8th (L 31-28) Above 9.4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 16.9 ppg - 3rd (W 28-14) Above 11.1
Denver Broncos - 25.6 ppg - 28th (W 31-13) Above 5.4
Indianapolis Colts- 16.4 ppg - 1st (L 38-15) Below 1.4
Jacksonville Jaguars - 19.0 ppg - 10th (W 28-28) Above 9.0

Playoff Teams (In order 1-6):

Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Steelers, Jags, Titans
Cowboys, Packers, Seahawks, Bucs, Giants, Redskins

AFC West
NFC South
Dolphins/Browns

2008: (Offense 22.9 ppg) - 17th

Pittsburgh - 13.9 ppg - 1st (L 38-17) Above 3.1
Tennessee Titans - 14.6 ppg - 2nd (L 31-12) Below 2.6
Jacksonville Jaguars - 22.9 ppg - 21st (L 30-27 OT) Above 4.1
Indianapolis Colts - 18.6 ppg - 7th (L 31-27) Above 8.4
Miami Dolphins - 19.8 ppg - 9th (W 29-21) Above 9.2
Detroit Lions - 32.3 ppg - 32nd (W 28-21) Below 11.3
Cincinnati Bengals - 22.8 ppg - 19th (W 28-6) Above 5.2
Minnesota Vikings - 20.8 ppg - 13th (L 28-14) Above 7.2
Baltimore Ravens - 15.2 ppg - 3rd (L 41-13) Below 2.2
Indianapolis Colts - 18.6 ppg - 7th (L 33-27) Above 8.4
Cleveland Browns - 21.9 ppg - 16th (W 16-6) Below 5.9
Jacksonville Jaguars - 22.9 ppg - 21st (W 30-17) Above 7.1
Green Bay Packers - 23.8 ppg - 22nd (W 24-21) Above .2
Tennessee Titans - 14.6 ppg - 2nd (W 13-12) Below 1.6
Oakland Raiders - 24.2 ppg - 24th (L 27-16) Below 8.2
Chicago Bears - 21.9 ppg - 16th (W 31-24) Above 9.1

Playoff Teams (In order 1-6):

Titans, Steelers, Dolphins, Chargers, Colts, Ravens
Giants, Panthers, Vikings, Cardinals, Falcons, Eagles

AFC North
NFC North
Dolphins/Raiders

2009: (Offense 24.2 ppg) - 10th

New York Jets - 14.8 ppg - 1st (L 24-0) Below 14.8
Tennessee Titans - 25.1 ppg - 28th (W 34-31) Above 8.9
Jacksonville Jaguars - 23.8 ppg - 24th (L 31-24) Above .2
Oakland Raiders - 23.7 ppg - 23rd (W 22-6) Below 1.7
Arizona Cardinals - 20.3 ppg - 14th (L 28-21) Above .7
Cincinnati Bengals - 18.2 ppg - 6th (W 28-17) Above 9.8
San Francisco 49ers - 17.6 ppg - 4th (W 24-21) Above 6.4
Buffalo Bills - 20.4 ppg - 16th (W 31-10) Above 10.6
Indianapolis Colts - 19.2 ppg - 8th (L 20-17) Below 2.2
Tennessee Titans - 25.1 ppg - 28th (L 20-17) Below 8.1
Indianapolis Colts - 19.2 ppg - 8th (L 35-27) Above 7.8
Jacksonville Jaguars - 23.8 ppg - 24th (L 32-18) Below 5.8
Seattle Seahawks - 24.4 ppg - 25th (W 34-7) Above 9.6
St. Louis Rams - 27.2 ppg - 31st (W 16-13) Below 11.2
Miami Dolphins - 24.4 ppg 25th (W 27-20) Above 2.6
New England Patriots - 17.8 ppg - 5th (W 34-27) Above 16.2

Playoff Teams (In order 1-6):

Colts, Chargers, Patriots, Bengals, Jets, Ravens
Saints, Vikings, Cowboys, Cardinals, Packers, Eagles

AFC East
NFC West
Bengals/Raiders

2010: (Offense - 24.4 ppg) - 9th

Indianapolis Colts - 24.2 ppg - 23rd (W 34-24) - Above 9.8
Washington Redskins - 23.6 ppg - 21st (W 30-27 OT) - Above 6.4
Dallas Cowboys - 27.2 ppg - 31st (L 27-13) - Below 14.2
Oakland Raiders - 23.2 ppg - 20th (W 31-24) Above 7.8
New York Giants - 21.7 ppg - 17th (L 34-10) Below 10.7
Kansas City Chiefs - 20.4 ppg - 11th (W 35-31) Above 14.6
Indianapolis Colts - 24.2 ppg - 23rd (L 30-17) - Below 7.2
San Diego Chargers - 20.1 ppg - 10th (L 29-23) Above 2.9
Jacksonville Jaguars - 26.2 ppg - 27th (L 31-24) - Below 2.2
New York Jets - 19.0 ppg - 6th (L 30-27) Above 8.0
Tennessee Titans - 21.2 ppg - 15th (W 20-0) - Below 1.2
Philadelphia Eagles - 23.6 ppg - 21st (L 34-24) Above .4
Baltimore Ravens - 16.9 ppg - 3rd (L 34-28 OT) Above 11.1
Tennessee Titans - 21.2 ppg - 15th (L 31-17) - Below 4.2
Denver Broncos - 29.4 ppg - 32nd (L 24-23) Below 6.4
Jacksonville Jaguars - 26.2 ppg - 27th (W 34-17) - Above 7.8

Playoff Teams (In order 1-6):

Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Chiefs, Ravens, Jets
Falcons, Bears, Eagles, Seahawks, Saints, Packers

AFC West
NFC East
Ravens/Jets
TheCD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2011   #17
disaacks3
Site Contributor
 
disaacks3's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Spring, TX
Section: 116 - Row M
Age: 45
Posts: 10,432
Rep Power: 118533 disaacks3 is a quality contributor and well respecteddisaacks3 is a quality contributor and well respecteddisaacks3 is a quality contributor and well respecteddisaacks3 is a quality contributor and well respecteddisaacks3 is a quality contributor and well respecteddisaacks3 is a quality contributor and well respecteddisaacks3 is a quality contributor and well respecteddisaacks3 is a quality contributor and well respecteddisaacks3 is a quality contributor and well respecteddisaacks3 is a quality contributor and well respecteddisaacks3 is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: How Good Is Our Offense (Statistical Breakdown)

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Forget points for a moment..
Let me ask you this.

Do you think the offense had an obligation to keep the defense off the clock? Our offense was 22nd in TOP

As far as Ray Lewis is concerned, he's from a good defense. We've got a bad defense. Apples & Oranges.
So, let me get this straight. You think that the opionion of Ray Lewis, arguably a VERY good player from a Good Defense, regarding the Texans Offense is invalidated because he's from a better DEfense than the Texans have fielded?
__________________
D.B. - That sounds like a nugget of reality wrapped in a layer of embellished hyperbole.
disaacks3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2011   #18
infantrycak
Lead Moderator
 
infantrycak's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Austin, TX
Age: 47
Posts: 46,124
Rep Power: 330323 infantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: How Good Is Our Offense (Statistical Breakdown)

Quote:
Originally Posted by disaacks3 View Post
So, let me get this straight. You think that the opionion of Ray Lewis, arguably a VERY good player from a Good Defense, regarding the Texans Offense is invalidated because he's from a better DEfense than the Texans have fielded?
Make that future hall of fame player on the #3 points per game D (and perennial top D throughout his career).

Totally weird attempt to create a distinction.
__________________
The Art of War
infantrycak is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2011   #19
thunderkyss 
& so it begins
 
thunderkyss's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Texas
Age: 42
Posts: 34,335
Rep Power: 234681 thunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respected
Send a message via Yahoo to thunderkyss
Default Re: How Good Is Our Offense (Statistical Breakdown)

Quote:
Originally Posted by disaacks3 View Post
So, let me get this straight. You think that the opionion of Ray Lewis, arguably a VERY good player from a Good Defense, regarding the Texans Offense is invalidated because he's from a better DEfense than the Texans have fielded?
Oh...... no.. so sorry, I misunderstood what he was trying to say.

I've got no doubt we have a good offense. I just don't think it is scary good, I definitely don't think it's top 5 talent. Top 5 talent would make us scary good IMO. Another WR, a true compliment to AJ, someone who can push him, Houshmandzadeh to Chad Johnson, Wayne to Harrison, Holt to Bruce. A true center, a technician, someone with talent. A RG...... hello!! let's get someone on the OL who would be a true All Pro contender.

Kubiak's done very well, with what he's got. He's dedicate most of his high draft picks on defense for a reason & has had to make due with what he could scrape together.

We need to be able to score on 5 out of 7 possessions.... touchdowns. We need to be able to get an early lead & run away with the lead. When they talk about us, teams need to worry about scoring 30 to keep up with us.

We're crying all last year, because we have to score 30 to win, because of our defense. 30 should be a given.

I don't literally mean that we'll avg 30ppg, but we should be avg 26 or more.

We averaged 24.4 ppg last year. 9th.... That's not elite. That's not top 5 talent.
__________________
thunderkyss is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2011   #20
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
 
The Pencil Neck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Dallas, TX
Age: 52
Posts: 17,985
Rep Power: 253530 The Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: How Good Is Our Offense (Statistical Breakdown)

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Oh...... no.. so sorry, I misunderstood what he was trying to say.

I've got no doubt we have a good offense. I just don't think it is scary good, I definitely don't think it's top 5 talent. Top 5 talent would make us scary good IMO. Another WR, a true compliment to AJ, someone who can push him, Houshmandzadeh to Chad Johnson, Wayne to Harrison, Holt to Bruce. A true center, a technician, someone with talent. A RG...... hello!! let's get someone on the OL who would be a true All Pro contender.

Kubiak's done very well, with what he's got. He's dedicate most of his high draft picks on defense for a reason & has had to make due with what he could scrape together.

We need to be able to score on 5 out of 7 possessions.... touchdowns. We need to be able to get an early lead & run away with the lead. When they talk about us, teams need to worry about scoring 30 to keep up with us.

We're crying all last year, because we have to score 30 to win, because of our defense. 30 should be a given.

I don't literally mean that we'll avg 30ppg, but we should be avg 26 or more.

We averaged 24.4 ppg last year. 9th.... That's not elite. That's not top 5 talent.
On the other hand, consider this...

When your defense is good, you get better field position. With better field position, you don't have to go as far to get a TD.

IIRC, our team had more drives of 80+ yards going for TDs than any ohter team last year. (I could be wrong about that but that's what I recall.) Our team also led the league in the average drive length and I think it was near the bottom in terms of where the drives started.

Now, if we score 3 more TDs via defense and special teams or 3 more TDs because we've got a short field, we get up to 26 ppg.

Our offense from last year with a better defense probably would ahve gotten your 26 ppg.
__________________
Adoptee: #55 - Chris Myers.
The Pencil Neck is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Go Back   Houston Texans Message Board & Forum - TexansTalk.com > The Great Fans of the Houston Texans > Texans Talk
Home Forums Register FAQ Members List Calendar Mark Forums Read


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:14 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.2
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Ad Management by RedTyger