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Old 08-23-2011   #1
Texans_Chick
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Default Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win division

Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win AFC South. Really.

Predicts 9-7 highest probability to win division.

Working on a followup post to this.

Football Outsiders is not one of the publications that says the Texans are going to the playoffs every year. This is the first year they've predicted Texans winning. Last year, they predicted 6 wins or less.
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Old 08-23-2011   #2
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win division

Hopefully they hit on us like they did on the Chiefs last year.
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Old 08-23-2011   #3
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win division

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Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win AFC South. Really.

Predicts 9-7 highest probability to win division.

Working on a followup post to this.

Football Outsiders is not one of the publications that says the Texans are going to the playoffs every year. This is the first year they've predicted Texans winning. Last year, they predicted 6 wins or less.
At least their bandwagon ticket is based on some science. Checkout these Bleacher Report predictions.
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Old 08-23-2011   #4
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win division

They have always been one of the more pessimistic outfits towards the Texans, fwiw.
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Old 08-23-2011   #5
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win division

I'm cool with this. It's not like there'll be an asterisk by the div. champ banner in the rafters of Relaint.
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Old 08-23-2011   #6
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win division

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Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win AFC South. Really.

Predicts 9-7 highest probability to win division.

Working on a followup post to this.

Football Outsiders is not one of the publications that says the Texans are going to the playoffs every year. This is the first year they've predicted Texans winning. Last year, they predicted 6 wins or less.
Didn't they predict our 6-10 season because of injuries? I've been trying to find your blog about that, but couldn't find it.
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Old 08-24-2011   #7
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win division

Predictions are like mock drafts. They mean nothing.
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Old 08-24-2011   #8
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win division

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Didn't they predict our 6-10 season because of injuries? I've been trying to find your blog about that, but couldn't find it.
I should have known. You provided a link in your story. Not that I support McNair's decision to keep GK & Rick Smith (I would've swore one of the two would be run out by now), but this might have gone into his decision somewhat.

Offensively, Gary has been able to be successful despite injury or what ever small problem popped up. Defensively, Gary & Frank Bush did a pitiful job just keeping pace.

They were hit early & often last year. Ben Tate out for the season..... no affect, we're still a top 10 rushing team, top 3 offense, & have the leading rusher. Duane Brown suspended for 4 games, no affect Schaub threw for 4,000 yards & was among the least sacked QBs of 2010. We missed Andre for what, 3 games?

We lose Brian Cushing for 4 games... we can't stop crap. We lose Bullman before the season started, not a gamer, you wouldn't think it would be a big deal, but he was a major part of our DL rotation. We lose Connor Barwin game 1... We lose Demeco after 6 games, we lose Mario after 8 games. We never recovered, never stabilized.

I'm not making excuses for Gary. I don't think he should still be here. Just trying to put the pieces together, for why he is.
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Old 08-24-2011   #9
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win division

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
I should have known. You provided a link in your story. Not that I support McNair's decision to keep GK & Rick Smith (I would've swore one of the two would be run out by now), but this might have gone into his decision somewhat.

Offensively, Gary has been able to be successful despite injury or what ever small problem popped up. Defensively, Gary & Frank Bush did a pitiful job just keeping pace.

They were hit early & often last year. Ben Tate out for the season..... no affect, we're still a top 10 rushing team, top 3 offense, & have the leading rusher. Duane Brown suspended for 4 games, no affect Schaub threw for 4,000 yards & was among the least sacked QBs of 2010. We missed Andre for what, 3 games?

We lose Brian Cushing for 4 games... we can't stop crap. We lose Bullman before the season started, not a gamer, you wouldn't think it would be a big deal, but he was a major part of our DL rotation. We lose Connor Barwin game 1... We lose Demeco after 6 games, we lose Mario after 8 games. We never recovered, never stabilized.

I'm not making excuses for Gary. I don't think he should still be here. Just trying to put the pieces together, for why he is.

Actually, if you read the entire 6-10 prediction for 2010, it was mostly based on three main factors: 1. youth of defensive starters; 2. noting that the Texans were unusually healthy in 2009 so they predicted that 2010 might be unusually unhealthy, 3. Very difficult predicted strength of schedule. In a mostly parity league, actual strength of schedule matters a great deal between playoff and non-playoff teams. But the long term forecast for the Texans in the 2010 FOA was very positive.

One of the reasons why FOA is high on the Texans this year is continuity on their offense and offensive scheme. That would have gone away with no Kubiak.
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Old 08-24-2011   #10
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win division

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Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan View Post
They have always been one of the more pessimistic outfits towards the Texans, fwiw.
This is worth pointing out. These are not the people who predict the Texans are going to the playoffs every year.
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Old 08-24-2011   #11
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win division

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Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
Actually, if you read the entire 6-10 prediction for 2010, it was mostly based on three main factors: 1. youth of defensive starters; 2. noting that the Texans were unusually healthy in 2009 so they predicted that 2010 might be unusually unhealthy, 3. Very difficult predicted strength of schedule. In a mostly parity league, actual strength of schedule matters a great deal between playoff and non-playoff teams. But the long term forecast for the Texans in the 2010 FOA was very positive.

One of the reasons why FOA is high on the Texans this year is continuity on their offense and offensive scheme. That would have gone away with no Kubiak.
They were also high on Wade's history of turning around defenses in his first year. Big reason is probably the simple bounce-back factor of a bad defense patching up some of its holes, but they also noted Wade's scouting acumen. Down year for the AFC south was also emphasized.
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Old 08-24-2011   #12
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win division

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Originally Posted by bo orlando View Post
They were also high on Wade's history of turning around defenses in his first year. Big reason is probably the simple bounce-back factor of a bad defense patching up some of its holes, but they also noted Wade's scouting acumen. Down year for the AFC south was also emphasized.
Won't really be much bounce back. We've consistently been near the bottom defensively. 2009 was the fluke.
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Old 08-24-2011   #13
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win division

The Football Outsiders article was pretty spot on. I'm more than happy with this years prediction. I say the Texans win 2 SB's in the next 4 yrs. I will personally kill the crow I eat if I'm wrong.
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Old 08-24-2011   #14
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win division

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The Football Outsiders article was pretty spot on. I'm more than happy with this years prediction. I say the Texans win 2 SB's in the next 4 yrs. I will personally kill the crow I eat if I'm wrong.
I think people will like the follow up post. Interesting Q&A. Will leave link here when I am done with it.
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Old 08-24-2011   #15
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win division

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Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
Actually, if you read the entire 6-10 prediction for 2010, it was mostly based on three main factors: 1. youth of defensive starters; 2. noting that the Texans were unusually healthy in 2009 so they predicted that 2010 might be unusually unhealthy, 3. Very difficult predicted strength of schedule. In a mostly parity league, actual strength of schedule matters a great deal between playoff and non-playoff teams. But the long term forecast for the Texans in the 2010 FOA was very positive.

One of the reasons why FOA is high on the Texans this year is continuity on their offense and offensive scheme. That would have gone away with no Kubiak.
As they should. The Texans are arguably the most talented young team in the league, imo. And IIRC, our oldest starter on the entire team is AJ, who just turned 30 last month. They just need to make it into the playoffs once and it'll roll on from there. This HAS to be the year though. Has to be. Last decade, the AFC South belonged to the Colts. This decade, it should belong to the Texans. Titans and Jags are poor teams, and the Colts are falling off.
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Old 08-24-2011   #16
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win division

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Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
One of the reasons why FOA is high on the Texans this year is continuity on their offense and offensive scheme. That would have gone away with no Kubiak.
But the talent (AJ, Foster, Schaub, Daniels, etc.) would have remained. I think any coordinator worth a darn could put together a top 10 offense out of that group. And had McNair pulled in a high profile coach like Cowher, I'm sure Football Outsiders would have looked favorably on the decision.
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2009 was the fluke.
The first 12 games (5-7) were the norm.

If Kubiak can't win the division this season, he never will. The Texans should be contending for the Super Bowl, by now. Win, already.
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Old 08-24-2011   #17
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win division

Oh my. This is huge news. Every year I get fired up for the Texans and every year TC posts a link to Football Outsiders telling me this isn't the year for the Texans.

This can only mean this is finally the year. Hallelujah!

Thanks for posting this, TC.
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Old 08-24-2011   #18
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win division

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Won't really be much bounce back. We've consistently been near the bottom defensively. 2009 was the fluke.
what I/they mean is that when a defense finishes poorly enough that it needs to get a new coordinator, particularly a high-profile one like wade, it will also try to address some of its obvious holes through the draft and free agency (and injured guys might become healthy if that was the problem). this alone can make a bad defense into a mediocre one or a mediocre one into a decent one. even if we'd kept whatshisname as coordinator, the joseph & manning signings, demeco's return to health, drafting of jj watt, quinn moving to safety--- all these things would likely boost the performance of the defense. the book also noted that wade's skill as a personnel evaluator is likely another big factor in achieving this end.

either way, it's uncanny how much defenses have improved in the first year literally everywhere wade's been. gives me hope far more than anything else i've read about how the defense so far.
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Old 08-25-2011   #19
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win division

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what I/they mean is that when a defense finishes poorly enough that it needs to get a new coordinator, particularly a high-profile one like wade, it will also try to address some of its obvious holes through the draft and free agency (and injured guys might become healthy if that was the problem). this alone can make a bad defense into a mediocre one or a mediocre one into a decent one. even if we'd kept whatshisname as coordinator, the joseph & manning signings, demeco's return to health, drafting of jj watt, quinn moving to safety--- all these things would likely boost the performance of the defense. the book also noted that wade's skill as a personnel evaluator is likely another big factor in achieving this end.

either way, it's uncanny how much defenses have improved in the first year literally everywhere wade's been. gives me hope far more than anything else i've read about how the defense so far.
That may be true, but there is no way they target those players unless Wade was in the war room. Don't take it from me, take it from the NFL coach with the best damn hair you've ever seen:

Quote:
Originally Posted by G. Nasty from a Justice interview
What have you learned about Wade?

“I knew what type of person he is. I knew what type of coach he is. I guess I probably learned a lot in the draft room as far as what he looks for in a player. Obviously, I’ve been in a lot of draft rooms with various defensive coordinators. To see the way he went about it with his group of guys was very interesting. It was so cut and dried.

“Normally, you go into the draft, and you may evaluate 500 players and then narrow it down to 50-60 you’re hoping to pull your four or five out of. To watch him get the scope down to 15-20 guys when you’re talking the first three or four rounds was amazing. It was locked in before we went to draft day. He knew exactly what he wanted. He got five of ‘em.”
Which hammers down the suspicion that Rick Smith CAN BE an excellent GM but he needs coaches and staff to tell him which players to target.
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Old 08-25-2011   #20
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win division

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Which hammers down the suspicion that Rick Smith CAN BE an excellent GM but he needs coaches and staff to tell him which players to target.
I would suggest there has been growth in his (Rick Smith) process, from early failures 07/08 to ever better drafting & smarter free agent acquisitions. Not coincidentally the hiring of better assistant coaches has impacted bottom line for player applications. In the end it may be nothing more than continuity in their system, one with many scars & ugly patches but just goes to show sometimes perseverance does pay off in the end.

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