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Old 08-11-2011   #1
dinkatoid
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Default Foster a 1 year wonder?

Via Rotoworld:

Texans owner Bob McNair said that Arian Foster won't get a long-term contract "based on one season."
McNair wants Foster, who is set to make just $525,000 this season, to prove that last year wasn't a fluke. "I think Arian understands if he performs this year, shows that he can be consistent, he'll be rewarded," McNair said. Foster has all the motivation and the talent to repeat last year's dominant performance. He's our No. 1 overall fantasy pick. Aug 11, 9:05 AM

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5469/arian-foster

My question is, if Foster has another solid year, will this end up costing us more to lock him up (or the possibility of losing him in FA)?
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Old 08-11-2011   #2
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Default Re: Foster a 1 year wonder?

If he comes out of the gate strong, he'll be locked and signed by the bye week.
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Old 08-11-2011   #3
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Default Re: Foster a 1 year wonder?

I kind of see-saw on this. On one hand I believe he's already proved he wasn't a one year wonder. Remember if it weren't for Arian taking over in the last quarter of the 2009 season, we probably don't see 9-7 because he did really well in those games. It could also be argued that if he started earlier, the Texans probably go to the playoffs that year. Remember going into the 2010 season the question was if he could do what he did in the last part of 09? Well he did that.

On the other hand I think if you are an organization trying to make the playoffs, then you hang that carrot out in front of probably your most hungry player.
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Old 08-11-2011   #4
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Default Re: Foster a 1 year wonder?

I dont think the Texans have the cap to sign him even if they wanted to. Foster needs the Texans offense as much as the Texans offense needs him right now. Not that we are a plug and play system, but finding another ZBS carrier isnt exactly the hardest position to fill.
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Old 08-11-2011   #5
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Default Re: Foster a 1 year wonder?

Lets just wait and see what he does this season before we tag him with the one year wonder tag.
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Old 08-11-2011   #6
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Default Re: Foster a 1 year wonder?

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Originally Posted by Thorn View Post
If he comes out of the gate strong, he'll be locked and signed by the bye week.
This is the best case scenario, and one I think has a realistic chance of happening.

If Foster has a good season, and for whatever reason can't be signed to a long-term contract before it's over, he can still be tendered and restricted giving the Texans the right to either receive draft pick compensation or match the contract offered by another team. This is how David Anderson was retained a couple of years ago, even though he agreed to a contract with the Broncos. This method actually lets someone else due the negotiating. I think the existence of this possibility was also why paying Arian more than the $500K plus that he's making this year was likely never a serious consideration for the Texans.
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Old 08-11-2011   #7
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Default Re: Foster a 1 year wonder?

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Originally Posted by False Start View Post
Lets just wait and see what he does this season before we tag him with the one year wonder tag.
I am not suggesting he is, that was in direct reference to the writing from Rotoworld, saying he had to prove it for more than 1 year. I think Foster is a solid back who fits really well into our system. That is why I brought up the cost of resigning him.

Like some other people have said, I am kinda back and forth on the issue. On one hand, he was great in college, came out here in 09 and played great, and only got better last year. I have no problem resigning him, as I feel he earned the bonus money.

On the other hand, he is still young and it never hurts to see how someone preforms in a contract year.
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Old 08-11-2011   #8
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Default Re: Foster a 1 year wonder?

Remember how excited we were to see Domanick Davis get his much-deserved contract? Remember how that turned out? This kind of thing can go wrong at any moment and it's hard to ever know when to make the move to pay a running back big dollars. First you have to see if you've got one on your roster (even if you took one early in the draft). Then you have to wait and see if he's a flash in the pan. Then when you're pretty sure he's worth every penny of what you're going to pay an injury can bring it all crashing down on your cap anyway.

Running backs are so cool to have and so risky at the same time.

I think if Arian Foster does it again this year, all year we lock him up for the rest of his natural football life and just hope it's not cut short in some way.
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Old 08-11-2011   #9
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Default Re: Foster a 1 year wonder?

RB is one of the riskiest positions and "replaceable" in Kubiak's offense. I quote replaceable because Foster's performance last year was incredible and not everyone can do that. But Kubiak can find RBs that fit this model fairly easily. Again, I'm not saying let Foster walk and just plug in anybody... I think Foster stands for everything this organization wants in a player.

I think extending his contract right now and giving him a boatload of money (assuming we'd have no problems with the cap) would set a very bad precedent. This is an organization that doesn't want to reward a player for one season, they want to reward their players for their consistent play, teamwork, yadda yadda yadda. If we hypothetically gave Foster a HUGE contract right now, then every other player (particularly) at a skill position would be knocking on Rick Smith's door for a new contract after 1 good season. That's how you get back in cap hell. I'm all for rewarding your players, especially those you draft and groom and develop, but after they've clearly shown you consistent performance in helping the team.

EDIT: To respond to the thread title. No, I do not think Foster is a one year wonder. I think his skillset fits this offense very very well, he's got great size and speed, he doesn't let players hit him head on so he doesn't take the punishing hits a lot of RBs do, he has excellent vision to find the seam, and just as importantly his mind is in the right place - he's always trying to get better and knows he's can lose his starting role at any second.
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Old 08-11-2011   #10
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Default Re: Foster a 1 year wonder?

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Originally Posted by Ole Miss Texan View Post
RB is one of the riskiest positions and "replaceable" in Kubiak's offense. I quote replaceable because Foster's performance last year was incredible and not everyone can do that. But Kubiak can find RBs that fit this model fairly easily. Again, I'm not saying let Foster walk and just plug in anybody... I think Foster stands for everything this organization wants in a player.

I think extending his contract right now and giving him a boatload of money (assuming we'd have no problems with the cap) would set a very bad precedent. This is an organization that doesn't want to reward a player for one season, they want to reward their players for their consistent play, teamwork, yadda yadda yadda. If we hypothetically gave Foster a HUGE contract right now, then every other player (particularly) at a skill position would be knocking on Rick Smith's door for a new contract after 1 good season. That's how you get back in cap hell. I'm all for rewarding your players, especially those you draft and groom and develop, but after they've clearly shown you consistent performance in helping the team.

EDIT: To respond to the thread title. No, I do not think Foster is a one year wonder. I think his skillset fits this offense very very well, he's got great size and speed, he doesn't let players hit him head on so he doesn't take the punishing hits a lot of RBs do, he has excellent vision to find the seam, and just as importantly his mind is in the right place - he's always trying to get better and knows he's can lose his starting role at any second.
You do have a point with people wanting to cash in after 1 good season. However, RB is a strange position because generally their shelf life is so short. Its tough to get a free agent RB that makes a difference because usually after their rookie contract plus 1 extension, they are declining.

The potentially strange thing here is Tate was a 2nd round pick, who you have to assume they thought would start before Foster took off. So, hypothetically, if Tate has a stellar season and starts splitting carries, then what do they do? Do you let Foster walk and risk that Tate was a 1 year wonder? Do you resign Foster and run a great RBBC (pun intended), or trade 1 of the 2 of them?
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Old 08-11-2011   #11
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Default Re: Foster a 1 year wonder?

I think he's going to have a good year, but no way he repeats 2010. First, teams are going to key on him, and second we've got plenty of other guys to spread the ball around to. Ward wasn't exactly chopped liver last year, and now we've also got Ben Tate back. Arian may very well get tagged with the "one year wonder" label by no fault of his own.
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Old 08-11-2011   #12
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Default Re: Foster a 1 year wonder?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinnie View Post
I think he's going to have a good year, but no way he repeats 2010. First, teams are going to key on him, and second we've got plenty of other guys to spread the ball around to. Ward wasn't exactly chopped liver last year, and now we've also got Ben Tate back. Arian may very well get tagged with the "one year wonder" label by no fault of his own.

After listening to Kubes comments yesterday, Tate better get that hammy healthy quick or he may be cut. Slaton has carried the bulk of the carries so far this camp and from what people like LZ, Marc V and McClain have said that he looks good and very determined during camp.
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Old 08-11-2011   #13
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Default Re: Foster a 1 year wonder?

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Originally Posted by texanfan2002114 View Post
After listening to Kubes comments yesterday, Tate better get that hammy healthy quick or he may be cut. Slaton has carried the bulk of the carries so far this camp and from what people like LZ, Marc V and McClain have said that he looks good and very determined during camp.
Even with the stiff competition at RB, I would really doubt they would cut a 2nd round pick in his 2nd year after he spent his first on IR. I would think they would at least give him 1 more year to show his potential.
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Old 08-11-2011   #14
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Default Re: Foster a 1 year wonder?

I HOPE he's not a 1 year wonder, but I hoped the same thing about Steve Slaton.

And I get the feeling his hamstring problem is going to be a nagging one. So yeah, he's a 1 year wonder in my book until he proves he's not.
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Old 08-11-2011   #15
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Default Re: Foster a 1 year wonder?

I would say that at minimum he is a 1.1875 year wonder as he had three strong games in 2009 at the end of the year.
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Old 08-11-2011   #16
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Default Re: Foster a 1 year wonder?

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Originally Posted by El Tejano View Post
I kind of see-saw on this. On one hand I believe he's already proved he wasn't a one year wonder. Remember if it weren't for Arian taking over in the last quarter of the 2009 season, we probably don't see 9-7 because he did really well in those games. It could also be argued that if he started earlier, the Texans probably go to the playoffs that year. Remember going into the 2010 season the question was if he could do what he did in the last part of 09? Well he did that.

On the other hand I think if you are an organization trying to make the playoffs, then you hang that carrot out in front of probably your most hungry player.
I don't think two games from a prior season before dispells the possibility that he was a one year wonder. That's just a mere sample from the season before.

I don't think he is a one year wonder either, but that doesn't suggest anything really. Bob is handling this right for a change and good for him. If history tells Foster anything, he should know that as long as he comes out tearing it up this season at some point in the season, Bob will probably be willing to take care of him as he has with other players in this organization who proved themselves. But it's good that Bob isn't jumping the gun here and dishing out tons of scratch after one season. I imagine after seeing what happened to Steve Slaton, he isn't going to fall for that without seeing a longer period of success.
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Old 08-11-2011   #17
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Default Re: Foster a 1 year wonder?

Adrian had a great year, noone can take that away from him, he'll get paid if he continues to excel the only problem with Adrian has alway been Adrian himself.

- trouble with off the field fights in college
- dropped completely off the charts in the draft cause of senior season and interview with draft scouts.
- has had a lot of trouble with his knees, knee surgery this year too!
- only player I think I've seen Kubiak bench.. just last year!

With all the issues I can see why they just don't want to dump a huge salary on him..
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Old 08-11-2011   #18
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Default Re: Foster a 1 year wonder?

So,


Anyone else taking him #1 overall in their league?
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Old 08-11-2011   #19
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Default Re: Foster a 1 year wonder?

He's not a 1 year wonder. He possesses a unique skill set of good top end speed, good strength, tough to bring down, very good acceleration, good lateral movement, terrific balance, terrific vision, great hands, and pretty good at pass pro, etc.

He's a jack of all trades, and master of about half of them.
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Old 08-11-2011   #20
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Default Re: Foster a 1 year wonder?

The comments about "easy to find a rb to perform in this ZBS" are puzzling. Like who in our existence? DDW, Slaton & Foster. Each had one very good year but our RB spot has been a sucking hole for years. Unfortunately for Arian, Ward looked very good and Tate could be as good if not better over all. I am okay if Smith waits to re-sign him or if it happens tomorrow. Foster is real deal.
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