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Old 08-05-2011   #1
Perki-Perk
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Thumbs up How many wins do you estimate in 2011??

First off, glad that I can finally post now and not just sit back lurking. This seems like a great forum from what I've read for the past few years and I finally signed up for an account. Now, on to business:

I say we win anywhere from 10-12 this year.

People keep expecting the same Ol Texans this year, but I beg to differ. Hello, we actually addressed holes this offseason with the D, I think by week 1 it will mostly come together. Definitely by midseason we are ATLEAST an average to above average defense. People are forgetting a lot of the mitigating factors that made us fail last year.

1: Slow starts on offense due to bad field position (Punt Returns and Kickoff returns anyone?).

2. Secondary: We signed Joseph and Manning and Quinn is no slouch. I think with the rookies we drafted, KJ's second year and the new schemes with split safeties, we will be MUCH improved.

3. No Cushing for first 4 games and no Ryans for last 10.5. I also think Cushing works better with Meco out there. Connor Barwin is back, and JJ Watt looks really good from what we're hearing. Earl Mitchell seems to be taking real well to the NT position.

4. We were 13 against the Run, not last and I think with our returning LB core, we should be vastly improved adding to the fact that an improved secondary will only help the front 7.

5. Also last year, we gave other offenses good field position due to our lousy punting ability (read: Turk) and then needed a depleted and injured defense to perform in the clutch a high percentage of the time due to field position of the other team.

If you factor in all of this, where exactly do any of you see less than 10 wins barring any significant injury or inability of the 3-4 def to get going considering Wade's already stated it will be an easy D to learn....
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Old 08-05-2011   #2
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Default Re: How many wins do you estimate in 2011??

For now, I'm going to say 8-9.

I'm in a wait and see mode regarding players on defense recovering from injury, and even more players on defense transitioning to new positions.

Special teams is somewhat of a gray area to me at this point.

Offense is good to go.
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Old 08-05-2011   #3
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Default Re: How many wins do you estimate in 2011??

Quote:
Originally Posted by Perki-Perk View Post
First off, glad that I can finally post now and not just sit back lurking. This seems like a great forum from what I've read for the past few years and I finally signed up for an account. Now, on to business:

I say we win anywhere from 10-12 this year.

People keep expecting the same Ol Texans this year, but I beg to differ. Hello, we actually addressed holes this offseason with the D, I think by week 1 it will mostly come together. Definitely by midseason we are ATLEAST an average to above average defense. People are forgetting a lot of the mitigating factors that made us fail last year.

1: Slow starts on offense due to bad field position (Punt Returns and Kickoff returns anyone?).

2. Secondary: We signed Joseph and Manning and Quinn is no slouch. I think with the rookies we drafted, KJ's second year and the new schemes with split safeties, we will be MUCH improved.

3. No Cushing for first 4 games and no Ryans for last 10.5. I also think Cushing works better with Meco out there. Connor Barwin is back, and JJ Watt looks really good from what we're hearing. Earl Mitchell seems to be taking real well to the NT position.

4. We were 13 against the Run, not last and I think with our returning LB core, we should be vastly improved adding to the fact that an improved secondary will only help the front 7.

5. Also last year, we gave other offenses good field position due to our lousy punting ability (read: Turk) and then needed a depleted and injured defense to perform in the clutch a high percentage of the time due to field position of the other team.

If you factor in all of this, where exactly do any of you see less than 10 wins barring any significant injury or inability of the 3-4 def to get going considering Wade's already stated it will be an easy D to learn....
Texans 2011 schedule is very balanced with each four-game quarter of the schedule featuring two home games and two road games.
Three of Houston’s first four opponents have hoisted the Lombardi Trophy within the last six years. Indianapolis (Week 1) won Super Bowl XLI following the 2006 season; New Orleans (Week 3) claimed Super Bowl XLIV after the 2009 season; and Pittsburgh won Super Bowl XLIII following the 2008 season.
We will play six games against 2010 playoff teams and seven games against teams that finished last season with winning records. Houston also plays four games against teams that finished 8-8 a year ago.

We will win 9 games.

Victory over :
Jaguars
Titans
Panthers
Dolphins
Raiders
Ravens
Browns
Buccaneers
Falcons
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Old 08-05-2011   #4
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Default Re: How many wins do you estimate in 2011??

I would agree that we "should" win 10-12 this year.

However, I've become conditioned as a fan and I will reserve greatness for a time when I'm proven wrong.

8-8

IT'S STILL KUBIAK!!!
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Old 08-05-2011   #5
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Default Re: How many wins do you estimate in 2011??

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelm View Post
For now, I'm going to say 8-9.

I'm in a wait and see mode regarding players on defense recovering from injury, and even more players on defense transitioning to new positions.

Special teams is somewhat of a gray area to me at this point.

Offense is good to go.
What he said.
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Old 08-05-2011   #6
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Default Re: How many wins do you estimate in 2011??

8 or 9 seems right. Of course, we have yet to see a real defensive coordinator on our staff until this season so hopes are spinning out of control.
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Old 08-05-2011   #7
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Default Re: How many wins do you estimate in 2011??

This is the Texans year. With Matt Schaub at the helm we are instantly better than 1/2 the teams on our schedule. Peyton has issues with the 3-4 defense as opposed to tearing up the 4-3. With Kubiak on offense, Wade on defense (both of their strong suits) the players should be in position to make alot of plays. Our depth is lacking which will cost us a game or 2. But with the Texans triplets we will be hard to stop again this year.

10 victories. Should be enough to win the division, or at least a wild card. I also think the Texans will be very dangerous in their first playoff game. I have a hard time seeing them win a 2nd or the AFC title game with the talent in this league. Obviously strange things can happen and sports are unpredictable as is life. Now its time to see if we have fools gold or the real thing.
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Old 08-05-2011   #8
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Default Re: How many wins do you estimate in 2011??

Kinda have the same feeling about our defense as I did when David Carr was finally gone and Schaub brought in. Hoping for an improvement but I've become so used to that unit playing poorly that I'll wait and see what happens. Thankfully Schaub is the real deal. Hopefully our D with Wade Phillips calling the shots is also.
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Old 08-05-2011   #9
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Default Re: How many wins do you estimate in 2011??

Valid points, seems to definitely be a lot of reservations around here to do previous years. However, in previous years I think it was just being a fan, blind faith if you will when we had obvious holes. Where are the obvious holes this year?

That's what bugs me...going in to last year, it seemed everyone knew we needed a place kicker and something in the secondary. Not everyone was buying off on KJ the savior talk, though most it seems were.

This year, we needed to:

1)Improve Secondary - Check
2)Obtain 3-4 type players - Check
3)Obtain a new Punter - Check
4)Replace any departing "valuable" FA's - Check

I can't sit here and let anyone tell me, that even with the slightest improvement on Defense that that's not a 4 to 5 game improvement seeing as how we gave up games in the 4th due to defensive blunders. About 7 of them I think. The other 3 are largely based on Defense, but there was no excuse for not running the ball against Indy in the second meeting as well as the debacle that was the Cowboys and Giants owning us.

We are largely returning the same offense, swap VL for LV.

The Defense can absolutely NOT get any worse... I don't see why all the pessimism here folks....It's a brand new year. Only extremely bad play calling could screw this up, and injuries.

I'm am genuinely excited this year for the first time since 02. (well and after the Colts win game 1 last year, they had no answer for Foster)
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Old 08-05-2011   #10
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Default Re: How many wins do you estimate in 2011??

Quote:
Originally Posted by Double Barrel View Post
What he said.
You know, that was an off the cuff prediction.
At the time I wrote that, I had not taken pen to paper and did a W/L prediction of our actual schedule. I just did that, and I'm kinda scared to say, I came up with 11 wins.


(3 out of the first 4 games will be shoot outs. After that, I think the D will settle in)

Colts - W (I think we really have gotten over the hump with this team)
@Dolphins - W
@Saints - L
Steelers - L
Raiders - W
@Ravens - L
@Tits - W
Jags - W
Browns - W
@Bucks - W
Bye Week
@Jags - L
Falcons - L
@Bengals - W
Panthers - W
@Colts - W (Yes, W!)
Tits - W

-You'll be surprised to see that I have us sweeping the Dolts and Tits, but splitting with the Jags.

-I think Tampa will fall off this year. Their Cinderella story will be somewhat truncated.

Some teams are just pitiful - Tits, Browns, Bengals, Panthers

Until proven otherwise, I cannot predict us winning against teams that are clearly supposed to beat us - Steelers, Saints, Ravens, Falcons

-This entire post feels homerish to me. I usually take great pains to check my inner homer at the door, and I really think I have been objective in my predictions.

-Even I am surprised by the record I am predicating.
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Old 08-05-2011   #11
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Default Re: How many wins do you estimate in 2011??

I will actually be happy if they go 9-7... Not concerned about playoffs, just want to get back to a winning record, then take it from there
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Old 08-05-2011   #12
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Default Re: How many wins do you estimate in 2011??

@michael, I was also unsure of how you cam up with 8-9, unless you meant wins not record..haha. I was like, so are we winning the division with an 8-8 record and losing in the first round?
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Old 08-05-2011   #13
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Default Re: How many wins do you estimate in 2011??

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelm View Post
This entire post feels homerish to me. I usually take great pains to check my inner homer at the door, and I really think I have been objective in my predictions.

-Even I am surprised by the record I am predicating.
This was exactly my problem, but I gotta tell you, I've been looking at it over and over again, inside and out. I've bounced it off several people and nobody can give legitimate data that says we win less than 10 (not counting injury, suspension, death, whatnot).

I really actually factually think we are putting the first product on the field. I will not be happy with anything less than 10 wins this year. Abso freakin lutely unacceptable!!
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Old 08-05-2011   #14
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Default Re: How many wins do you estimate in 2011??

Quote:
Originally Posted by Perki-Perk View Post
@michael, I was also unsure of how you cam up with 8-9, unless you meant wins not record..haha. I was like, so are we winning the division with an 8-8 record and losing in the first round?
The question was how many wins do you estimate. I predicted 8-9 wins, not an 8 and 9 record.
I can see where it looked that way, though. LOL
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Old 08-05-2011   #15
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Default Re: How many wins do you estimate in 2011??

I say 9-7
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Old 08-05-2011   #16
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Default Re: How many wins do you estimate in 2011??

The biggest thing that jumped out at me when analyzing our opponents is the large number of teams with QB situations that are either shaky, or flat out awful.

See below.

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelm View Post

Colts - W
@Dolphins - W
@Saints - L
Steelers - L
Raiders - W
@Ravens - L
@Tits - W
Jags - W
Browns - W
@Bucks - W
Bye Week
@Jags - L
Falcons - L
@Bengals - W
Panthers - W
@Colts - W (Yes, W!)
Tits - W
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Old 08-05-2011   #17
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Default Re: How many wins do you estimate in 2011??

Colts - W
@Dolphins - W
@Saints - W
Steelers - L
Raiders - W
@Ravens - L
@Tits - L
Jags - W
Browns - W
@Bucks - W
Bye Week
@Jags - W
Falcons - L
@Bengals - W
Panthers - W
@Colts - L
Tits - W

11-5, Win the AFC South
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Old 08-05-2011   #18
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Default Re: How many wins do you estimate in 2011??

Colts - L
@Dolphins - W
@Saints - W
Steelers - L
Raiders - W
@Ravens - W
@Tits - W
Jags - L
Browns - L
@Bucks - L
Bye Week
@Jags - W
Falcons - L
@Bengals - W
Panthers - W
@Colts - L
Tits - L

8-8

I hope I'm wrong. It is just like this team to lose when we are supposed to win and win the ones we were to lose.

I do have a hotel reservation secured in Feb. that is 15 minutes from Lucas Oil Stadium ..... just in case
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Old 08-05-2011   #19
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Default Re: How many wins do you estimate in 2011??

10-6 - We were 3 plays from 9-7 last year, I pray we've improved by more than those plays.

Colts - W
@Dolphins - W
@Saints - L
Steelers - L
Raiders - W
@Ravens - L
@Tits - W
Jags - W
Browns - W
@Bucks - W
Bye Week
@Jags - L
Falcons - L
@Bengals - W
Panthers - W
@Colts - L
Tits - W
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Old 08-05-2011   #20
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Default Re: How many wins do you estimate in 2011??

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ole Miss Texan View Post
Colts - W
@Dolphins - W
@Saints - W
Steelers - L
Raiders - W
@Ravens - L
@Tits - L
Jags - W
Browns - W
@Bucks - W
Bye Week
@Jags - W
Falcons - L
@Bengals - W
Panthers - W
@Colts - L
Tits - W

11-5, Win the AFC South
I say we beat the Ravens at home before we go into the Saints "hood" and mop the field with them. Swap those 2 results and I like what I'm seeing.
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