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Old 06-14-2011   #1
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Default Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?

http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/pos...is-2010-season




Arian Foster was obviously a revelation last season.

The Texans had more of a belief in him heading into 2010 than I did. I thought pinning the hopes of their running game on him after two strong games at the end of 2009 was a more than a tad hopeful. And let’s face it: The Texans hardly stood pat, drafting Ben Tate in the second round.

But Tate got hurt and Foster exploded for 231 rushing yards in the season-opening win over the Colts, a number no one came close to matching all season. On a 6-10 team, Foster was consistently productive and wound up the league’s rushing leader.

Now the question is, does he suffer some sort of second-year (third-season) dip?

I believe he’s legit and have no concerns that he will endure any sort of major letdown.

Tight end Owen Daniels agrees.

“He won’t be a one-year wonder, we’re not going to let him do that,” Daniels said. “I think we’ve got a really good offensive line. Hopefully we have our fullback [Vonta Leach] coming back. There are a lot of people who work really hard for him up front.

“He made some good things happen at the end of his rookie year, and then we honestly, as silly as it might sound, all the players kind of expected him to have a great year just because we saw him work. We saw the potential from the year before. We knew if we could keep that guy healthy and give him some help ... Arian would be the man back there. We won’t let him have that second-year, quote unquote sophomore slump, even though it’s his third year. We won’t let that happen.”

Ernest Tolden of ESPN Stats & Information put together this chart for us looking at backs who led the league in rushing in their first or second season and how they did the next year.

Three -- George Rogers, Freeman McNeil and Edgerrin James were hurt in a follow-up season. But of the other seven, no one dropped more than six spots among the rushing leaders the following season.

That bodes well for Foster. So does the fact that the Texans should be a more competitive team with a revamped defense and an emphasis on finishing.
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Old 06-14-2011   #2
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Default Re: Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?

Fosters touches could be reduced if Tate emerges as a solid complement. Really, Ward is a solid complement to Foster, and could have received more carries had he gone through training camp with the Texans.

Still, I expect Arian to be among the leagues leaders in rushing, and yards per carry. He's just that good. And if the Texans could jump out to some early leads, I can see the Texans rushing attempts rise. Foster may not lead the NFL in rushing yards in 2011, but he could still have a Pro Bowl year.
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Old 06-14-2011   #3
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Default Re: Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?

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Fosters touches could be reduced if Tate emerges as a solid complement. Really, Ward is a solid complement to Foster, and could have received more carries had he gone through training camp with the Texans.

Still, I expect Arian to be among the leagues leaders in rushing, and yards per carry. He's just that good. And if the Texans could jump out to some early leads, I can see the Texans rushing attempts rise. Foster may not lead the NFL in rushing yards in 2011, but he could still have a Pro Bowl year.
I agree if Tate fully recovers and produces like we expected him to.

I wouldn't cry if Foster rushes for a 1000 and Tate rushes for a 1000 and Ward cleans up with a couple of hundred of his own.
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Old 06-14-2011   #4
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Default Re: Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?

No. 2010 was his career year and even if he never gets injuried and has a great year he won't lead the NFL in rushing with over 1600 yards and lead the NFL in yard from scrimmage with over 2200 yards and lead the NFL in touchdowns with more than 1 per game. Again, not saying he won't be good or even great, but statistically odds say "no way". Between the chances of an injury, splitting time with other backs, or only being 98% as good as one of the greatest seasons ever, the odds are against him.

Also Steve Slaton will not repeat his 2008 season (leading the NFL in yard from scrimmage) and Chris Johnson will never rush for 2000 in a season again.

However, I am still hoping Ben Tate's best years as a pro are still ahead of him.
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Old 06-14-2011   #5
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Default Re: Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?

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No. 2010 was his career year and even if he never gets injuried and has a great year he won't lead the NFL in rushing with over 1600 yards and lead the NFL in yard from scrimmage with over 2200 yards and lead the NFL in touchdowns with more than 1 per game. Again, not saying he won't be good or even great, but statistically odds say "no way". Between the chances of an injury, splitting time with other backs, or only being 98% as good as one of the greatest seasons ever, the odds are against him.

Also Steve Slaton will not repeat his 2008 season (leading the NFL in yard from scrimmage) and Chris Johnson will never rush for 2000 in a season again.

However, I am still hoping Ben Tate's best years as a pro are still ahead of him.
hmmm u say all this pretty confidently but i dont see how u can say all of that for SURE. i mean to speculate is one thing but to say all of this without a doubt. IF we can get leads, Foster will rush for more yards. He did all that on a team that was down and had to consistently throw the ball to come back from big defecates. So if we get a Defense that can get us a good lead, i know Foster can rush form 1800+ yards.
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Old 06-14-2011   #6
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Default Re: Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?

Can he? Sure. Will he? Doubt it.

Arian had a very special season last year that we should not take for granted. Even if things were the same, I'm not sure if he could do it. With Tate returning and a whole season worth of game tape to study for other teams, it'll be awfully hard to match his prior total.

That being said, It'd be really nice to be able to have our offense on the field more frequently due to an improved defense, and also to play with the lead in the 4th more, forcing Arian to have more carries.
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Old 06-14-2011   #7
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Default Re: Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?

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Re: Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?
Ummmm, in word, YES!!! He understands the idea of making a decision and cutting... It Works!!!
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Old 06-14-2011   #8
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Default Re: Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?

I see 3-headed monster in the future for the Texans, Tate, Ward and Foster - "The Tardster" if you prefer. So no, not with significantly less carries. Although, I believe less carries is a good thing to preserve Foster's ability for years to come, rather than wearing him out early and waiting for him to break down in 2-3 years.
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Old 06-15-2011   #9
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Default Re: Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?

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I see 3-headed monster in the future for the Texans, Tate, Ward and Foster - "The Tardster" if you prefer. So no, not with significantly less carries. Although, I believe less carries is a good thing to preserve Foster's ability for years to come, rather than wearing him out early and waiting for him to break down in 2-3 years.
Yeah, we don't want him turning into Larry Johnson.
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Old 06-15-2011   #10
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Default Re: Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?

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"The Tardster"

Please don't infringe on my copyrights.

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Old 06-15-2011   #11
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Default Re: Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?

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Please don't infringe on my copyrights.

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You can't possibly be Chris Johnson, there's no way he could spell 'infringe' correctly.

I think the Tardster could catch on as a nickname.
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Old 06-15-2011   #12
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Default Re: Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?

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You can't possibly be Chris Johnson, there's no way he could spell 'infringe' correctly.

I think the Tardster could catch on as a nickname.
or Sincerely
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Old 06-15-2011   #13
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Default Re: Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?

I am hopeful Foster will not have to duplicate last season. I want to see more spread over the 3 main backs and maybe a few to SLaton if on the roster. I think a healthy Owen Daniels and a solid Dreesen will also get a few more plays. Both are good at holding onto the ball. The offense is rounding into a very good group. I expect Kubiak to have more time to focus on O with Phillips handling defense.
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Old 06-15-2011   #14
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Default Re: Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?

It's possible, but I highly doubt it. AP hasn't matched the type of run he was on in his rookie year before getting hurt. Chris Johnson didn't come close to what he did two years ago. He can still have a great season, but it's doubtful that he hits those numbers again especially if Leach isn't here.
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Old 06-15-2011   #15
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Default Re: Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?

If he happens to be anywhere near where he was in 2010 then I'll be happy.
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Old 06-15-2011   #16
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Default Re: Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?

Most NFL teams today use a 3, or even 4, man rotation at RB to keep the star relatively healthy. If Ward and Tate can step up, it would be all to the good for us and for Arian.
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Old 06-15-2011   #17
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Default Re: Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?

I think he can hit 1600/600 again.

If Leach isn't here, the odds go down.

But Foster understands the system. He's not running out of his head or anything. He's not throwing himself around brutally and recklessly like AP used to do. Foster is a more controlled runner.

I can see Foster having a long, productive career and put up big numbers. I can see him having years statistically better than last year (whether he takes the rushing title or not.)

I can also see him getting injured and Tate and/or Ward coming in and taking up the slack and having great careers themselves.

This is why I was pushing for drafting RB early and often. RB is a brutal spot and you need to make sure you've got quality depth at that position.
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Old 06-15-2011   #18
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Default Re: Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?

Hopefully not. He got WAY too many touches last year. You can only give your RB so many hits in the course of his career.

Last year Foster had 327 total rushes and Ward had about 50. So we averaged about 23 running plays per game(minus reverses to AJ or JJ). I would like to get up to around 30 rushing plays per game. I would give 14 touches to Foster and 8 each to Ward and Tate.
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Old 06-15-2011   #19
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Default Re: Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?

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I think he can hit 1600/600 again.

If Leach isn't here, the odds go down.

But Foster understands the system. He's not running out of his head or anything. He's not throwing himself around brutally and recklessly like AP used to do. Foster is a more controlled runner.

I can see Foster having a long, productive career and put up big numbers. I can see him having years statistically better than last year (whether he takes the rushing title or not.)

I can also see him getting injured and Tate and/or Ward coming in and taking up the slack and having great careers themselves.

This is why I was pushing for drafting RB early and often. RB is a brutal spot and you need to make sure you've got quality depth at that position.
You have to remember that Tate will be back this season taking a lot of his carries away. Hitting 1,600 and 600 again will be tough if Tate is running really well. It would be smart to share the load a lot more if Tate is running really nicely to limit the damage on Foster.
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Old 06-15-2011   #20
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Default Re: Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?

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