2012 Hurricane Season

[brakos82]

Excerpt from Dr. Jeff Masters:

Since the Hurricane Hunters found Ernesto's strongest winds to be near 14°N, I expect that Martinique, Dominica, St. Lucia, and Barbados will see the strongest winds on Friday during Ernesto's passage through the islands. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Friday, then fall to the low range through Tuesday, according to the 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model. Given Ernesto's poor organization, I give a 20% chance that the storm will degenerate into a tropical wave on Friday. If this happens, the storm will still be capable of bringing winds of 50 mph to the Windward Islands, though--and will still be capable of regenerating into a tropical storm in the Western Caribbean. Once Ernesto clears the Lesser Antilles, the reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more westerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Honduras on Monday night, is being discounted by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, it is possible that the storm's outer spiral bands will cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--only the HWRF clearly shows Ernesto reaching hurricane strength over the next five days. So, the official NHC forecast of a hurricane near Jamaica on Monday is an aggressive one. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Stay tuned.

[Thorn]

By Sunday evening this could be a cat 1 hurricane that could enter the Gulf. If yall haven't stocked up on food, water, batteries and the like, you probably should do that during your grocery shopping this weekend. Just in case, you know.

[Thorn]

Ernesto will hopefully die out over Mexico. There's a new one out in the Atlantic now, but I doubt anyone in Texas needs to be concerned about it.

[Thorn]

Add a battery powered fan to your hurricane supplies. I just ordered one from Amazon. It's a ten inch fan that runs on D cells. You'll be glad you did if you actually need it.

[Koolaid Time]

Originally Posted by Thorn

Add a battery powered fan to your hurricane supplies. I just ordered one from Amazon. It's a ten inch fan that runs on D cells. You'll be glad you did if you actually need it.

A fan connected to a couple of solar panels would be great to have as well.

[Hookem Horns]

Forgot what it was like to worry about hurricanes. My family moved from Houston in 1983 and we never lived in a hurricane zone after that.

Looks like this storm is heading right this way.

[GlassHalfFull]

Originally Posted by Hookem Horns

Forgot what it was like to worry about hurricanes. My family moved from Houston in 1983 and we never lived in a hurricane zone after that.

Looks like this storm is heading right this way.

Republican National Convention - hurricane headed that way.

[Hookem Horns]

Originally Posted by GlassHalfFull

Republican National Convention - hurricane headed that way.

That's in Tampa right? I am about 1 hour 1/2 from there. Actually I am going down to the Bucs game tomorrow night.

At least our house has concrete walls. I guess we will see just how "hurricane proof" our house is.

[michaelm]

It looks more and more like Isaac will miss Florida, and enter the Gulf on a path towards the eastern part of Louisiana, or Mississippi.

[Hookem Horns]

Originally Posted by michaelm

It looks more and more like Isaac will miss Florida, and enter the Gulf on a path towards the eastern part of Louisiana, or Mississippi.

Don't want it coming here but Katrina part II would be horrible for those folks.

[Thorn]

Originally Posted by Hookem Horns

Forgot what it was like to worry about hurricanes. My family moved from Houston in 1983 and we never lived in a hurricane zone after that.

Looks like this storm is heading right this way.

stock up on water, food and "stuff" now before the crowds hit.

And good luck. Hopefully it doesn't develop into much. I hate to see hurricanes happen to anyone.

[Thorn]

[Showtime100]

They're predicting a more westerly course than I saw yesterday. Either way Florida will get some serious weather out of it.

[brakos82]

Tropical Storm Isaac battering the Florida Keys, Gulf Coast landfall uncertain.... 65mph/995mb/wnw-18

Isaac's inner rain bands are landing on the Keys this afternoon, bringing heavy rain and winds upwards of 50mph to the islands. Conditions will remain poor throughout the day and overnight tonight.

Isaac is expected to gain hurricane strength over the warm Florida waters, then move into the Gulf. From here, the forecast models split into two distinctive paths.
The first (and original) takes Isaac north into the Florida panhandle, likely as a cat-1 or weak cat-2 hurricane. There is an eddy of cooler water off Florida's west coast, which would keep Isaac from intensifying too much.
The second option takes Isaac on a more northwesterly track, with landfall in Louisiana as a cat-2 (possibly cat-3) hurricane.

Isaac is a very large storm, with tropical-storm force winds extending 205 miles from the center. In comparison, Katrina's TS-force winds at landfall extended 235 miles, and Ike's 275 miles. Wind speed changes of 5-10 mph will be significant in forecasting storm surge totals. Even if Isaac makes landfall as a minimal hurricane, storm surges will be high because of the storm's size.

[TexanSam]

Newest Isaac models have it trending west.

http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/08...st-with-isaac/

[Thorn]

So now it's predicted to be a cat 2 when it makes landfall. That's a nasty storm.

[pirbroke]

Man I know it's only a cat 1 but is sure seems to be taking a worst case path for the offshore workers. Right between Fourchon ( the biggest offshore boat hub in the gulf) and Venice / new orleans.

[GlassHalfFull]

I feel so sorry for those living in New Orleans and the path of Isaak. Each hurricane has its own way of doing damage, and the way Isaak is moving so slow, I worry about horrendous flooding. That thing is just sitting on the area.

That said, I would like to on a mini rant about the press coverage. I was checking the local news stations, and each has multiple reporters in the LA covering the storm. I wonder how many reporters in total are there all trying to get the perfect shot. It is absolutely ridiculous. They are showing them driving around talking about how dangerous it is to be out and about. The thing that really bothers me is how much extra work it causes the local authorities, who have much better things to be doing. Why can't they pool coverage and only have a few people in total in the area?

Gah, I can't even express how disgusted I am with the way our tv news is handled.

[BetaV1]

In Metairie right now just outside New Orleans. I'm amazed I still have power. The wind here is insane. The rain is so-so. A lot of the parishes about 45 miles to the southwest of the city are taking the full force. The storm is indeed moving insanely slow and has already stalled twice while still maintaining hurricane status. When it made landful, we had reported winds of 100 and the pressure was 968 which is category 2 by the books. I'll be shocked of the National Hurricane Center does not reclassify this as a category 2 storm, because it sure doesn't feel like a cat 1.

[Thorn]

Stay safe BetaV1.