Beerlover Final Texan 2011 Mock Draft

[Lucky]

Originally Posted by beerlover

key word, generally. three isolated instances does not equal rule of thumb.

The rule of thumb is that there is no rule of thumb. Orlando Pace. Clay Matthews. There are others on each side of the equation. The key isn't trading up or trading back. It's who you pick.

[beerlover]

Originally Posted by Lucky

The rule of thumb is that there is no rule of thumb. Orlando Pace. Clay Matthews. There are others on each side of the equation. The key isn't trading up or trading back. It's who you pick.

Speaking in general terms, there are a lot of weak GM'S out there, easy pick-en's for those gifted who have a solid plan, foundation & relationship with an established successful Head Coach (see what Gary & Rick are up against). A good tandem can look 3-5 years down the road & build towards a common goal with a consistent game plan with/without credentials if they have the talent & bloodlines to do so.

For whatever reason I always look for comparable whether it be players, coaches, GM's or organizations. Since the Texans came into the league I've kept an interest to what Detroit has done during the same span, especially since 2003 when they had the 2nd pick & passed on Andre, which was the single biggest difference between the two, but then they got it right with Suh, now they both seem about = again. Talking HC/GM when the Texans made their coaching change, Atlanta soon after made their own with duo of Mike Smith & Thomas Dimitroff. Who of course have had a little more success, which raises the question why? Well Mike Smith is a defensive coach first, so he knows how to build his staff & run a system (like Gary knows offense) while offensively the GM went out & drafted a franchise QB (to replace not only Vick but Schaub as well) plus key FA offensive powerhouse Michael Turner & traded for Tony Gonzalez. So they addressed multiple needs a variety of ways & once aquired brought them in & plugged them into their system. This is the year we shall know the answer to Gary Kubiak & Rick Smith, not making it any easier for them in a lockout year, but color me cautiously optimistic, I really hope they get it right

[badboy]

Originally Posted by beerlover

My draft partners want no part of this one but who could blame them, this draft stuff has finally pushed me over the edge many would argue for some time now but that's what makes it fun or maybe its the double bastard

On a serious note, in my last mock of 2011, I've addressed as many needs as possible which I feel are critical moving forward into Wade Phillips 3-4 scheme. Adding a big proto-typical press corner, athletic pass rushing DE to convert (OLB) monster pocket run stuffer @ nose, two safeties each who will compete for starting positions @ SS & FS, depth @ OLB & ILB, replacement punter & developmental QB for Kubiak to groom.

1. Cameron Jordan, DE, California, 6040 287 (Traded to San Diego for picks #18 & #50)

Man Crush aside, I think the Texans use him as trade bait. He is perfect fit here or for any 3-4 team needing premier DE who can press the corner, attack the QB, filter through trash & make plays next level. I even feel he can be moved around including OLB position standing up both as edge pass rusher & in coverage. The physical attributes he inherited from his dad Steve ( Pro-Bowl TE) are undeniable, for anybody who watched him destroy blocks & force defensive players to run away from him know what I’m talking about one word describes his dad was fierce competitor I see the same things with young Cameron his personality is more his moms, but the inner drive & ability is all there.

1A. Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado, 6022 211(via San Diego #18)

All that will matter end of the day is fixing secondary needs & I don’t want to miss taking a prospect with such a high ceiling, despite off field issues, who could transition to the NFL as the next Darrelle Revis type of press corner. I’ve not seen his name mentioned on the Texans board but when I compare tape of him to Prince Amukamara I see a more prototypical NFL corner who has the size, athletic ability & technique to mirror the bigger & faster NFL WR's. Are there issues & risks? heck yes but despite all the warts Jimmy Smith may wind up being the premier CB in this draft, much better all-around measureable than Devin McCourty too who I had mocked to Texans last year. This is a hard pick to make, trust me, the interview session would be a critical missing ingredient I do not have access to but all accounts suggest he’s cleaned up his act & is ready to become a serious pro moving forward.

2A. Jabaal Sheard, OLB, Pittsburgh, 6027 264

Really wanted Brooks Reed, ready to pull the trigger if he falls past the 1st but doubt he gets by all those 3-4 teams who need OLB help/fortification. Sheard background checks have cleared (which should satisfy Texans FO). Ideal size for DE to project as a 3-4 OLB in the NFL. Natural pass rusher who can bend & skim the edge showing flexibility needed to take the angles getting to QB’s. Has longer arms than Brooks (33 ½”) same size & speed). Good production numbers @ Pitt too, had 9 sacks & 14.5 TKL both numbers higher than Brooks. Sneaky, under-rated, intense, quick edge rusher.

2B. DeAndre McDaniel, SS, Clemson, 6001 217 (via San Diego #50)

Like Pollard, Aggressive & competitive on film, strong in run support & communication with peers. Physically & mentally tough, in short a man who is ready to step in the league & contribute day one which is something Texans will need especially with a shortened training camp/pre-season with CBA lockout. Much better in coverage than Pollard, able to read & react because hips are more fluid, slightly better speed as well.

3. Ellis Kenrick, NT, Hampton, 6047 346

Texans can solidify their future middle (NT/NG) needs by developing Ellis a raw, athletic big man who can push the pocket inward, has plenty of sand in his pants. Struggles with technique but believe Wade & staff can turn him into one hell of a starting 3-4 nose tackle. Over 35” arm length & big hands for position.

4. Chris Culliver, FS, South Carolina 6003 199

Opened eyes with a 4.40 & is one of the prospects Texans actually brought in to take another look at. FS is obviously a need both starting & back-up roles even if Glover Quinn makes the transition from Cornerback. Based on game film he is a late 3rd to mid 4th round FS prospect but does have injury history that is a concern which should drop his stock into the 5th rd. missed a lot of action senior season. Actually his best year was 2008 (3 int’s) average around 60 tackles (exception senior year with loss time) but like his ability to close & cover-up corners with good range. Not the answer but solid return with some ability to compete with better speed in a slow Texans secondary.

5. Bruce Miller, OLB, Central Florida, 6014 254

High motor, blue collar work ethic, extremely strong upper body, recorded 42 reps at 225 lbs., adds much needed depth in pass rushing skills. Situational pass rusher, special teams standout, giving Texans a nice pair of young OLB’s to go along with young pair of young CB’s (Smith & Jackson). Excellent instincts, doesn’t stay blocked. Two-time USA Defensive Player of the Year. Tremendous production in his four year career (34 sacks, 3 INT’ & 6 forced fumbles). Impressive 42 reps in the weight room, situational pass rusher and special teams contributor. We feel despite his slower than expected forty time of 4.85 (which is reason he drops this far) his actual football speed is much faster dues to natural instincts & pass rushing skills.

6. Michael Mohamed, ILB, California, 6030 239

Has experience running the 3-4 defense @ California (w/Cameron Jordan) see him as quick study & solid foundation/depth piece( can swing inside or outside). Smart/aware player smaller & quicker than what Texans currently have on roster to help solidify roster transition to 3-4 which cannot be undervalued. Team leader (Cal) in tackles with 96 very productive in short simple terms dude is a Football Player who is a system fit.

7A. Aaron Bates, Punter, Michigan State, 6000 200

Matt Turk is facing retirement, this is a must need/replacement so why not select your #1 rated player in the draft @ a position of need even if Punters are not considered Football Players, special teams, last I checked are still important facets of the game. Solid guy both on & off the field no character issues here, excellent ball placement skills inside the 20 with good power & was elected Spartan team captain.

7B. Mr. Irrelevant- Scott Tolzien, QB, Wisconsin, 6020 209

Not another TE from Wisconsin but he is the QB who threw to those TE’s (post Owen Daniels) so give me high marks OK. Kubiak loves the Badger offense almost as much as Colorado State. Scott is his typical play action, smart, system QB who also has a very accurate arm, something people seem to be missing when they evaluate position.

As one of your draft partners I want to say well done BL. You know due to our many pms that I like Jordan but see Watt as a better prospect although not by much. If I was convinced Cam could move to OLB successfully, he would rate above Watt on my board. He is pretty heavy for a LB. ALso, you may remember I brought Jimmy Smith and Chris Culliver to the attention of our mock partners and think you have done a great job in documenting their worth. Smith scares me, now. I have him rated better than Amukamara in skill sets but his off field antics make me think "hold up a bit." He can be a boom or bust making you look a hero or pretty stupid. In his last game of the college season, I focused on him wanting to see him stand out. He did but it he stood out as not looking like he knew what to do one one play and that really concerned me. Maybe it was one of those plays.

Kendrick Ellis would be a great pick despite his off field history & think he will be a great NT but doubt team will go that way.

I think the trade down with San Diego is a possibility. Again great work !!!!

[kiwitexansfan]

Originally Posted by badboy

As one of your draft partners I want to say well done BL. You know due to our many pms that I like Jordan but see Watt as a better prospect although not by much. If I was convinced Cam could move to OLB successfully, he would rate above Watt on my board. He is pretty heavy for a LB.

Has there been talk of Jordan playing OLB?

I can't say I have seen that mentioned. To be either a 5-tech or OLB seems a bit of a leap even for a freak such as Mario.

[beerlover]

Originally Posted by kiwitexansfan

Has there been talk of Jordan playing OLB?

I can't say I have seen that mentioned. To be either a 5-tech or OLB seems a bit of a leap even for a freak such as Mario.

Before the end of Cal's Pro-Day, a few scouts requested Cameron to run some LB drills, dropping back in coverage, stuff that OLB's do & repoted'ly scouts where impressed. It's on YouTube if you want to look it up? I thought despite not practicing ahead of time he looked naturally fluid,
Dropped low, w/decent backpeddle. He really looked more like his dad playing TE. You know the Texans like their TE's

[Mr teX]

This is the 1st mock draft that i've seen & like. Cam Jordan is the guy unless peterson or dareus somehow fall. I'd be ok with Smith in the 2nd..props BL..

[kiwitexansfan]

Originally Posted by beerlover

Before the end of Cal's Pro-Day, a few scouts requested Cameron to run some LB drills, dropping back in coverage, stuff that OLB's do & repoted'ly scouts where impressed. It's on YouTube if you want to look it up? I thought despite not practicing ahead of time he looked naturally fluid,
Dropped low, w/decent backpeddle. He really looked more like his dad playing TE. You know the Texans like their TE's

Found a short clip of him, you're right he did look pretty smooth and natural.

[beerlover]

Originally Posted by Mr teX

This is the 1st mock draft that i've seen & like. Cam Jordan is the guy unless peterson or dareus somehow fall. I'd be ok with Smith in the 2nd..props BL..

Thanks. Jordan brings added value to a 3-4 defense. One, he's ready to plug & play (same system @ Cal) Two Jordan is willing, positive aptitude & flashes athletic abilty to fill other positions of need as he adjusts to new teammates. Three Cam is respectful of players like Mario & Antonio (he grew up around the NFL) so he will be accepted & fit in quickly here as well. Four, bloodlines. His father Steve was a feared physical pro bowl TE.

[steelbtexan]

Originally Posted by awtysst

I have to disagree here. Moving up a few spots is one thing, but when teams give up a lot to move up for a unproven player, it usually doesn't work out. Here are some examples.

Texans give up multiple draft picks for Jason babin.
Saints give up multiple draft picks for Ricky Williams.
Browns give up multiple draft picks for Brady Quinn
Jets give up multiple picks for Dwayne Robertson.
Falcons give up multiple picks for Michael Vick.

When you move up a lot and give up multiple picks it generally does not work.

Babin = Played great this yr. Did he make the Pro Bowl? Texans coaching = stink

Williams = multiple pro bowls, teams got to do their homewrk and make sure of character issues. This is the reason I wouldn't take Jimmy Smith

Quinn = Bust, but he was a bottom of the 1st rd pick. #22 I believe.

Robertson= Bust, This is the only true high draft pick bust. The reason he busted was 1. Change in sheme the Jets drafted him as a 4-3 DT then the coaching staff got fired and Mangini brought in the 3-4 and Robertson wasn't a fit. Reason # 2 bad knees, The most important Robertson busted.

Vick= Had an MVP type season last yr. Atlanta needed to do their homework better. Although I'm not sure it would've mattered. Atlanta drafted Vick because he appealed to their fanbase and helped sell tickets.


Trading up in the top 10 for a high character players like Miller or Peterson isn't as big a risk as it might seem. IMHO This is in addition to Luckys later post.

[beerlover]

Leading up to draft week I would like to discuss how players drafted in my trade down mock fit into Wade Phillips new Texans 3-4. Barring unforeseen CBA agreement in place before the draft actually begins, there will be less flexibility for teams to trade picks (cannot use current players) however on the flip side this puts addressing team needs as a priority by moving into slots to get their guy. I believe teams will be more strategical to identify their "guy" early to address that premium position of need. Take Tampa Bay for instance, Da'Quan Bowers is a top 10 prospect who's stock is slipping because of knee concerns, which I happen to believe is a smoke screen for some teams to see him fall further than he should so they can select him (not saying Tampa is one of them but could be a beneficiary). Jimmy Smith as expected has cleared background checks, as I expected, so his stock is climbing with most mock drafts having him selected #23 by the Eagles to shore up secondary. Anyway my point being is there is enough value @ the #11 spot for the Texans to receive phone calls when they go on the clock, just trying to prepare everyone.

The beauty of implementing a 3-4 is the tweener types "OLB's" can be picked up later to fill pass rushing needs because in the past they generally didn't fit a traditional 4-3 position, not big enough to line up with hand in the dirt & not fast enough in coverage, well things have changed haven't they? but one thing remains, high motor & instincts in passing downs. I think the Texans can address this position in the 2nd rd. given Wade Phillips experience. One thing we know from experience is its very difficult to start a rookie CB even if he's a first rounder. He is going to struggle, get beat, make poor decisions, draw numerous yellow flags & in short very well cost the Texans a game or two. But you can't give up on them, you need to assess their strengths & cover up the weaknesses putting them in a better situation to succeed, like New England did last season with Devin McCourty. This means not only scheme has to be adjusted but better safety help/support over the top & underneath.

I have addressed these needs/concerns in the first four rounds with quality, potential starting caliber prospects. Getting a big, physical press corner like Jimmy Smith will allow Glover Quinn to move into his natural FS position & Chris Culliver is an excellent FS prospect in the 4th to develop, providing depth behind Glover & flexibility should he move back to corner. While DeAndre McDaniel will come into camp & win out to become the Texans new starting SS. He is a man on a mission ready & physical enough to handle the pounding for Pollard vacant duties plus is an upgrade with play-making ability in coverage. Jabaal Sheard is a bit of a sleeper was double teamed when fellow Pitt DE/OLB Greg Romeus (another draft possiblity in 5th along with Miller for OLB position, remember his name too come 3rd day). What I like most about Sheard are his pass rush instincts, he is tenacious, high motor effort guy who would fit perfect as Wade Phillips OLB. Then of course I threw in a bigger NT/NG in Ellis which Texans will need in first/second down & goal line situations. I like Cody with Mitchell but its all about match-ups & the more physical teams will take advantage size wise & wear those two guys down without some extra beef to support. In the end with Wade Phillips ability to coach the position the Texans DL will no longer be a pushover.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by beerlover

... One thing we know from experience is its very difficult to start a rookie CB even if he's a first rounder. He is going to struggle, get beat, make poor decisions, draw murmurous red flags & in short very well cost the Texans a game or two.

murmurous (adj) filled with or characterized by murmurs: low and indistinct

But I think you have created a new definition: a combination of murderous and numerous - causing the fans to murmur.

Best new use of a word ever!

[kiwitexansfan]

I thought they drew yellow flags.....

Red flags is what I see when people talk about drafting Phil Taylor.

[steelbtexan]

In regards to Taylor

The same things were said about Wilfork,Hampton,Rodgers,Raji etc...

There's always a risk to drafting a fatty. Some turn out to be Wilfork, others turn out to be Wilkinson.

This is why taking Powe/Ellis/Williams in rd 3/5 would be my choice over taking Taylor in the 1st. But if Wade chooses to trade back into the bottom of the 1st for Taylor I'm on board.

[beerlover]

Originally Posted by Fred

murmurous (adj) filled with or characterized by murmurs: low and indistinct

But I think you have created a new definition: a combination of murderous and numerous - causing the fans to murmur.

Best new use of a word ever!

thanks for that, at least now I know people actually read this stuff, guess I'll have to proof read in the future, since spell check obviously failed

[beerlover]

Originally Posted by kiwitexansfan

I thought they drew yellow flags.....

Red flags is what I see when people talk about drafting Phil Taylor.

yellow, red, see how long its been since football season & it's not coming back anytime soon

[beerlover]

Originally Posted by steelbtexan

In regards to Taylor

The same things were said about Wilfork,Hampton,Rodgers,Raji etc...

There's always a risk to drafting a fatty. Some turn out to be Wilfork, others turn out to be Wilkinson.

This is why taking Powe/Ellis/Williams in rd 3/5 would be my choice over taking Taylor in the 1st. But if Wade chooses to trade back into the bottom of the 1st for Taylor I'm on board.

Taylor has a big frame & can carry 325-335 easily which will be in his contract for sure. From watching tape I don't even think he is a two gap penetrator, he is not really bulky but fairly athletic, his strength is one gap nose tackle position like Wade Phillips uses or in 4-3 UT over center.

Ellis who I have mocked to Texans in the 3rd is actually your more typical two gap penetrator. But his explosive first step can collapse even an NFL pocket on impact giving Wade a nice rotational NG against heavier match-ups.

[awtysst]

Originally Posted by steelbtexan

Babin = Played great this yr. Did he make the Pro Bowl? Texans coaching = stink

Williams = multiple pro bowls, teams got to do their homewrk and make sure of character issues. This is the reason I wouldn't take Jimmy Smith

Quinn = Bust, but he was a bottom of the 1st rd pick. #22 I believe.

Robertson= Bust, This is the only true high draft pick bust. The reason he busted was 1. Change in sheme the Jets drafted him as a 4-3 DT then the coaching staff got fired and Mangini brought in the 3-4 and Robertson wasn't a fit. Reason # 2 bad knees, The most important Robertson busted.

Vick= Had an MVP type season last yr. Atlanta needed to do their homework better. Although I'm not sure it would've mattered. Atlanta drafted Vick because he appealed to their fanbase and helped sell tickets.


Trading up in the top 10 for a high character players like Miller or Peterson isn't as big a risk as it might seem. IMHO This is in addition to Luckys later post.

Babin had 4-5 sacks a year in Houston not great. He had 2 in KC, 0 in Seattle, and 2.5 in Philadelphia. He finally had his breakout year at the age of 30. Up till now he has been a bust, lets see if this year was a an outlier year or a true measure of his ability. Considering it has taken him this long to show the goods, I'd say one year wonder.

Ricky: a massive mistake by New Orleans. They essentially traded their entire draft for him. He had 1 ginormous year(1800 yards) and a very good year of 1300. Outside of that he has been very average in the 1000 yard club(which if you do the math is only 62.5 a game over a season). Overrated, and I am a UT fan.

Quinn: agreed. He is a bust.

Robertson: also a bust, agreed.

Vick: a running QB that had one great season in Atlanta before the leave figured him out. He was a horrible passer in Atlanta and the league basically dared him tot throw to win the big games. He couldn't do it. The reason he had a great year last year was becuase he finally realized to be a good QB you have to be an accurate passer. Being a running Qb is fine, but games are won on the arm, not the legs. Once he figured that out and worked on it he had a great season. BUT, remember, the man is also 30+ years old, and had injury concerns last year. Let's see if he can string a couple more seasons like this before we can say anything about him.

I do not doubt that VM is a high character player, but being a high character player does not always work out.

[awtysst]

Originally Posted by Lucky

I think a player has to pop positive at the combine in order to enter the league under the substance abuse program (like Carlos Rogers did). A failed drug test in college isn't relevant. The NFLPA would never agree to that, because the league doesn't administer the tests.

Thank you for correcting me. I wish we knew who failed a drug test at the combine. I guess we may know as some players, who are expected to be top picks, begin to slide more than we expected.

[beerlover]

2011 NFL Draft: 50 Bold Predictions - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/6...ctions/page/35


34. Jordan Will Be Drafted by the Houston Texans


California's Cameron Jordan is a perfect fit in Houston.

Houston Texan's newly signed defensive coordinator Wade Philips will be installing his 3-4 defense, in which Jordan will thrive.

[DocBar]

Originally Posted by beerlover

2011 NFL Draft: 50 Bold Predictions - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/6...ctions/page/35


34. Jordan Will Be Drafted by the Houston Texans


California's Cameron Jordan is a perfect fit in Houston.

Houston Texan's newly signed defensive coordinator Wade Philips will be installing his 3-4 defense, in which Jordan will thrive.

If this happens, I will fart in your general direction.